sbnwx85
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Everything posted by sbnwx85
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33 and rain. The worst weather on the planet.
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Hanging on to 32 degrees. Moderate rain coming down. The ice is having a harder time accumulating but there’s a little more than a couple hours ago. Still nothing on the ground so roads, outside of bridges and overpasses, shouldn’t be bad.
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My backyard thermometer just went from 30 to 31 at 7 am. I’ll assume it was about this temperature while the moderate to heavy freezing rain moved through last hour. The parking lots and grass were only wet but everything else was covered in ice. Trees, cars, fences, etc. It seemed to accrue somewhat efficiently just above the ground. You’ve been alerted, Michigan posters. Good luck.
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Going to hope for a rumble of thunder tomorrow.
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IWX goes WWA for Branch and HIllsdale. I suspect they'll expand that to cover a light glaze of ice further south and west overnight. It's annoying some TV mets that they're waiting...
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Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW
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I'll see your 36 degrees and raise you 34 degrees and rain.
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Pretty early in the year to break out the Excessive Rainfall Outlook map but here we are.
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I always jump the gun in the "When Will Watches Be Issued Game". I may never learn.
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I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too.
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The winter of futility records continues for ya. Smdh. At least the end of the month looks to be active.
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Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning.
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I thought NAM would be a bit south too at first but it turned out to be about the same as the previous run with placement of ice in Michigan. Still lofty totals too.
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18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.
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That is a blessing. I’ve been in an ice storm in January 2001 where half of an inch of ice accrued and temps stayed below freezing for over a week. Took several days to restore power.
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I’m leaning toward a cold rain here but occasionally a GFS or Euro run gets ice south of the Michigan border…it’s enough to keep me invested. A shift south by 30-50 miles would put me in the worst of the freezing rain. For now, I-94 in Michigan looks like it will get hit the hardest with ice.
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GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday.
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I’d imagine it would be tough to get much ice along the Illinois/Wisconsin side of the lakeshore with water temps in the mid-30’s and an east wind. Otherwise, it looks like a nasty storm where ever that corridor sets up.
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00z GFS pretty much the same as 12z. 00z Canadian came far enough south to bring significant icing to Northern Indiana/Illinois. Going to be fun to track this one.
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That crap can stay north thank you very much.
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Never got more than a DAB of snow. On to the next one...and 60 degrees next week?
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Light glaze followed by a DAB of snow. Hoping we can reach an inch of snow before the event ends.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
sbnwx85 replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yeah, I noticed that too. I won't get too hung up on placement yet but if this one ends up being a miss that will be a major disappointment. Either way, I'll be welcoming Spring after next week. -
37 and rain. Yuck.
