sbnwx85

2" hail in South Bend and Mishawaka. Best stuff just missed me to the south.

We'll see if these hold up. Note in the discussion 53kt gust in Aurora. Mesoscale Discussion 1560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Northern IN into southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150229Z - 150400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread eastward late this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently intensified across northeast IL, with a 53 kt gust recently observed in Aurora, IL. Some uptick in storm intensity has also been noted into central IL. The downstream environment into northern IN and southwest lower MI is not as unstable, but some low-level moistening from the southwest, in conjunction with continued support from a midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes, may help to sustain these storms as they move eastward late this evening. While nocturnal cooling has commenced, a residual well-mixed boundary layer resulting from earlier diurnal heating/mixing may continue to support a threat of locally damaging gusts as storms spread across northern IN and Lake Michigan into southwest lower MI. Depending on trends over the next 30-60 minutes, watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

Indiana Dept of Environmental Management an Air Quality Alert for Sunday for that smoke.

It rained pretty hard here. Happy for those who got in on the action today. Hope the damage is minimal.

Pouring down rain here at 3:30. Typically heavy rain at that hour is the nail in the coffin for severe weather later. Interested to see how much recovery we get here.

I’ll pull out the red carpet for everyone coming to chase IMBY. I gotta work in the newsroom today. Sounds like weather might become the top story but we need this light rain to push out ASAP.

Last night's storms really packed a punch from some just northwest of South Bend. I was outside as the storm came in and observed gusts 40-45 mph in my neighborhood. But some downbursts/microbursts around the airport caused a lot of tree damage in those surrounding neighborhoods. I just noticed this 79 mph report from last night: 0137 79 3 WNW South Bend St. Joseph IN 4170 8632 ASOS station KSBN South Bend International Ap.

Thanks...I haven't started a topic in like three years.

I'm trying to extend the dates for this thread since there's slight risk across much of the forum on 6/30 and 7/1...but not sure how to do it. Can an admin update?

Nice couplet south of Springfield.

Going to be a Moderate Risk.

Speedy boys... Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Menard County in central Illinois... Scott County in west central Illinois... Southern Fulton County in west central Illinois... Western Sangamon County in central Illinois... Cass County in west central Illinois... Schuyler County in west central Illinois... Mason County in central Illinois... Morgan County in west central Illinois... * Until 1215 PM CDT. * At 1128 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Astoria to near Clarksville, moving east at 80 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Astoria and Browning around 1135 AM CDT. Bath around 1140 AM CDT.

Started a thread for today’s action. Threat seems substantial enough.

The 11z HRRR run tho

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northern MO...extreme northeastern KS...and far southern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 291258Z - 291430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for significant damaging winds up to around 80 mph will likely increase this morning across northern Missouri. DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells and bowing clusters are ongoing this morning across far northeastern KS, southwestern IA, and northern MO. The most intense cluster is across northwestern MO, where a recent measured wind gust to 68 kt (78 mph) has been observed. As the boundary layer continues to destabilize with diurnal heating, the very strong instability (MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an increasing threat for significant severe downdraft winds up to around 80 mph. The greatest threat for these substantial damaging winds will likely focus across northern MO where the primary bowing cluster should consolidate. Isolated large hail may also occur with any embedded supercells.

SPC has introduced a 30% hatched area for wind across N MO, Central IL and SE IN. There are already watches out in Missouri. Destructive MCS/possible derecho becoming increasingly likely today.

Ah, yes, breaking news: the sky is blue.

Overcast and hazy here. Weird combo.

Ran into work to help with storm coverage. Ended up with some broad rotation overhead. Pretty good!

The downside to discrete sup’s is some people are going to get split by the cells. I’m afraid I’m going to be some people.

Storms have popped.

It’s got that “feel” to it. Sun out, strong southerly winds (30 mph gusts), warm but not too hot. Initiation will be real close here.

Hoping storms initiate in time tomorrow to see some severe wx. Worried about a miss east.

A fair amount of smoke in the upper levels this morning. It appears to be overcast at first glance but there are no clouds in the sky. The sun is nice and red.

This is my fave weather. 50's and 60's and overcast. Wish it could be like this every day in the summer...save the occasional derecho.