Eskimo Joe

55 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

The "triple point" is the severe season's kin to winter storms' "deformation zone."

Triple point with some EML ahead of it on a negatively tilted trough.

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm interested to see if we keep getting dynamic systems into alter April and May. That could aid in increasing severe potential for our area. 

Yea if this trend keeps up, then May and early June could be interesting.

One thing that could work in our favor for severe weather for tomorrow would be if a surface low pops on the lee of the mountains. The 00z/12z Euro, and to a lesser extent the 12z NAM, tries to show this tomorrow. That would aid the warm front in popping north and giving some better lift closer to DC and Baltimore. If this were May, I'd be more inclined to believe that, but right now I think that's a long shot. Looks like south of I-66 to east of US 50 are in a better position for some interesting weather tomorrow.

Wind gust to 102 mph reported at the Boyd, KY Emergency Operations Center (EOC) weather station earlier today. The reading was recorded on a Davis VP2 station that appears to be mounted properly

9 minutes ago, George BM said:

That line approaching Charleston, WV means business. It has a tornado warning box the size of some of the STW boxes we get here. Lots of kinks in the line.

NWS Charleston is getting multiple reports of tornadoes so they are just warning the entire line. Makes sense.

Would place my money on Baltimore and NE having the better shot at flooding. They're quite saturated.

FYI, I wouldn't take much stock in the CAMs through 18z, given the national radar outage. They initialize pretty heavily based off radar data IIRC.

53 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Who ordered a wedge salad for tmrw? 3k nam is gross.

We do wedge well.

So, the HRRR at range for Wednesday loves Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties it seems.

So we're back to a lot of rain Monday to Wednesday maybe?

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm still not convinced DC/Baltimore will be in the game. VA seems like a better bet and even then who knows 

Agreed. This isn't our threat unless something changes big time.

Quote

1015 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Belvedere Heights 39.07N  76.50W
03/30/2024  M43 mph          Anne Arundel       MD   Mesonet         
            A wind gust of 37 knots (43 MPH) was measured by a 
            Tempest station at Spriggs Pond Jetty adjacent to the 
            Chesapeake Bay.

48 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Some wicked thunder/lightning on the M/D right now, looks to be sinking SE-ward.

Classic elevated convection.

38 minutes ago, Kay said:

EJ, just curious are there plans to put stations in Harford, AA, Calvert, and Cecil? I am guessing so as the map says 52 (!) additional sites planned. Great project, thumbs up.

Yes there are. Every county in the state will get them. The three biggest challenges with this project are finding appropriate locations, coordinating the land use agreements with the owners, and getting good weather to prep the site and deploy the equipment. We just installed the first urban mesonet tower in Baltimore City last week and it was a tough process to get a site that had enough open space to capture the nearby environment appropriately. 

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That being said - I would be happy even with a nice few claps of elevated thunder. The only way I'm okay with mosquito season is thunderstorms  - Not looking forward to sweating my butt off for months on end. 

I could stand a quiet spring to get more mesonet stations in the ground.

It's hard to be excited beyond a day or 30 hours out from the event. Unless you have some big Bermuda high set up with northwest flow, there are so many variables that can muck up severe weather this time of year.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

What a washout of a week on tap starting late Sunday. 0z euro says 2-4” through the metro area.

Just give me April 4th clear so we can install a mesonet station in PG county.

Dewpoints really crashing fast behind this front. Tomorrow could be interesting.

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

You would think they could get the channel cleared for one way traffic quicker than that... I mean they should be working 24 hours a day on it.

Tides, weather, unexpected events popping up. That's a safe estimate. There's no way they're going to work at night.

I think the Orioles are good.

Sneaky wildfire risk west of I-81 this afternoon and tomorrow.

Both the HRRR and NAM nudged east overnight, and they may be a bit too far west based off recent radar and satellite trends. The surface winds on the ASOS and mesonet stations are all northwest, which would reinforce the belief the system is a bit east of the original forecast. It's probably going to be an iffy opening day, but the Orioles could get the game in.

M5.08" for the month. RSTM2 COOP.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Pretty gross day.  I’d be fine if the slug of rain missed us east tomorrow.

Same.