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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    First SVR warning of the day near Parkesburg, WV.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Thursday could another active day, but let's focus on today first.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Per the 12z sounding from IAD, today's convective temp is 90 degrees. We have a ways to go for heating if we want to maximize potential.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    It's product #230 thank you.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    i'm in favor of keeping things here.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Next 1 to 3 hours will be key. I don't want to see us get stuck with pre-frontal convection that kills instability off or persistent low clouds.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    I'd rather we keep everything here.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    12z NAMNest slams Baltimore. Mature bowing structure goes right through their metro right at peak heating.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=counties-map&colorbar=undefined
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Here's the event from the SPC archive: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Two issues for that day: 1.) I don't think the EML was properly diagnosed until the 18z RAOB from ILN and the 00z soundings from LWX and PBZ came out. 2.) CAMS were still a work in progress and were all over the board. The CAMS that had the EML right blew the derecho through DC.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. SPC high risk days seem to be focused on tornadoes, and that's fine. I still think the 2012 Derecho should've been a hatched 60%.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    There has never been a High Risk for our area and I don't see how one would be needed today.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    00z HREF from SPC was big to focus on a lack of mid and upper level cloud deck. That's often a hinderance for our bigger sever weather days. If we can just clear this low level junk out we should be golden.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    What product on the IEMBot site did you use to get that?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    The best part of the bowing segment is north of I-70.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR hammers Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore counties. Several UHI tracks. DC seems more like run of the mill line of storms.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    They've been hammering the QLCS tornado risk for days. A lot of research has been going in that area in recent years. Tony Lyza on Twitter is all about that focus.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Last moderate severe risk issued: DC/Baltimore: 6/13/2013 Shenandoah Valley/Potomac Highlands: 9/18/2012 Western Maryland: 7/8/2014 Charlottesville/central VA: 4/19/2019 Highland County: 6/16/2008
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Moderate Risk incoming
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Looking less tornado risk and more straight line risk.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    SPC already highlighted the activity in SW PA about the possibility of being the discrete stuff.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Activity in NW WV already has CG on it. That's a good sign.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Ott House or bust.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    I'm at FEMA EMI in Emmittsburg this week. We've got sun poking through and it's clear as a bell above the low level junk.
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