Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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WPC upping snowfall potential in the D5-D7 range. Their 18z update.
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Posting base snowfall output gif for some comparison.
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Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.
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Thursday's model runs will be the make or break for guidance. Most of the players will be within the upper air network in North America, and I'd be my bottom dollar that NOAA will be running extra planes for data sampling.
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That is a legitimate blizzard every day ending in 'y'.
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Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga.
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Cold, wetter, more phasing.
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From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.
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Cold ai pressing in better at the mid levels. It's a great trend. All of the inland primary lows that tried to run into SW PA or northern WV are gone. Clear signal for a better transfer to the/a coastal. Also,
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12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50.
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For laughs, here's the 336 hr forecast for the 12z Euro AI.
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Thread closed?
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z Euro, south of the PA turnpike gets 6". Cold powder. 8" south of Mason-Dixon. -
Double bonus is that we're not looking at some HR240 threat...we're almost inside D5!
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12z Euro looks like 4" - 6" Mason-Dixon to I-70, 6" - 10" I-70 to I-66/US 50, 10"+ south of I-66/US 50.
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Amazing is what it was. Severance pay for a decade of fail.
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Interesting to note that 60% of them were in January.
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12z Euro AI is a CLASSIC Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Primary low drives into Tennessee, then hands of everything to the coastal quickly and cleanly. 8" - 12" cold powder, weekend snow.
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A 150 hr mean snowfall of 8" - 12" is impressive.
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Hasn't even started running yet.
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No stress.
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My bench mark for this is a 6" - 10" event. Would be the biggest snowfall for me since moving back to Maryland in August 2016.
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Yea 12z Thursday is my go/no go for this event. I'd much rather deal with suppression than worrying about something cutting. With such a fresh, strong push of cold air coming I don't think we have to worry about this cutting too much this time.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Harrisburg to Philly. Would rival PDII, '96, 2009-2010, and 2016 in many spots. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Harrisburg to Philly. Would rival PDII, '96, 2009-2010, and 2016 in many spots.
