Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.
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Cold ai pressing in better at the mid levels. It's a great trend. All of the inland primary lows that tried to run into SW PA or northern WV are gone. Clear signal for a better transfer to the/a coastal. Also,
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12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50.
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For laughs, here's the 336 hr forecast for the 12z Euro AI.
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Thread closed?
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z Euro, south of the PA turnpike gets 6". Cold powder. 8" south of Mason-Dixon. -
Double bonus is that we're not looking at some HR240 threat...we're almost inside D5!
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12z Euro looks like 4" - 6" Mason-Dixon to I-70, 6" - 10" I-70 to I-66/US 50, 10"+ south of I-66/US 50.
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Amazing is what it was. Severance pay for a decade of fail.
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Interesting to note that 60% of them were in January.
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12z Euro AI is a CLASSIC Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Primary low drives into Tennessee, then hands of everything to the coastal quickly and cleanly. 8" - 12" cold powder, weekend snow.
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A 150 hr mean snowfall of 8" - 12" is impressive.
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Hasn't even started running yet.
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No stress.
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My bench mark for this is a 6" - 10" event. Would be the biggest snowfall for me since moving back to Maryland in August 2016.
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Yea 12z Thursday is my go/no go for this event. I'd much rather deal with suppression than worrying about something cutting. With such a fresh, strong push of cold air coming I don't think we have to worry about this cutting too much this time.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Harrisburg to Philly. Would rival PDII, '96, 2009-2010, and 2016 in many spots. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Harrisburg to Philly. Would rival PDII, '96, 2009-2010, and 2016 in many spots. -
Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?
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12z UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Philly. Would rival 1996, PDII, and 2016 for many. Just unreal.
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UKMET is FOLKS
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12z Canadian ENS open the freezer post storm.
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12z Canadian is about as amped as I want at this range. Inside of 48 hrs? Sure.
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Earlier this month, Tomer Burg (PolarWx) on Twitter posited that DC - NYC could see something on the order of ~20" for the month of January and people laughed at him. He might be right.
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Canadian is definitely the most amped, but wow. It would be a Top 10 snowfall for IAD and DCA.
