Sciascia
-
Posts
526 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Sciascia
-
First day?
-
The changes these storms make late in the modeling game is unfortunate. Hopefully the NW cheddar curtain areas have a chance for double digits. Don’t think I’ve had that since I moved out here from Chicago in early 2020.
-
You forgot option #3: Non Hi-res NAM:
-
4:20am LOT graphics:
-
06z EURO QPF map. In Januarys gone by, 2+ inches of precip at ORD in early January would be setting records. Sadly not the case anymore. Granted, it would still be like 16-17 inches of snow if it verifies. But wouldn’t break top 3 snowstorms.
-
Now I know. And knowing is half the battle.
-
Captain Obvious-level statement: Part of the “bad luck” with the ratios is the timing of it being yet another daylight storm. If this would strike overnight, we could probably actually use 10:1 maps.
-
This one’s hitting the shore tomorrow?
-
After a couple solid hours, light snow currently in Poplar Grove.
-
Flakes aren’t large (yet), but definitely the heaviest of the event so far.
-
It’s been snowing, but nothing too major. Still seeing some patches of sidewalk. Hoping that 1-5pm period is the high point that it’s advertised to be.
-
Most recent LOT thinking:
-
Deck is nice & covered. Was selfishly looking for a touch more before the main event arrives, but beggars can’t be choosers.
-
That dry zone looks fairly large. Hopefully it fills in as it continues to move.
-
So that’s why my P&C went from 5-9 to 2-4 for daytime tomorrow with the removal of the heavy snow terminology.
-
LOT’s recent graphics. The solid gold bordered snow block from midnight to 6pm tomorrow for Rockford area has me excited as a snow enthusiast. It also has me slightly concerned as the snow removal guy for both my house & my in-laws next door. P&C from LOT has the wide range of 7-15 potential inches.
-
I enjoy the little 12”+ splotches near the 7s, 8s, and 9s.
-
Even accounting for compaction, this snowfall’s gonna be a workout to shovel if it all pans out.
-
15z RAP Is more moisture showing up or are ratios getting better? Don’t recall snow going near or over a foot on Kuchera maps for IL previously.
-
Quadrant #4 represent! If this were to pan out (or even potentially change for the “worse,” it’s a tough decision on whether or not I should go to work tomorrow afternoon.
-
18z HRRR Kuchera snow map and precip plot at the end of the run (Noon Tuesday):
-
Euro has officially put me in bullseye territory in the upper 1/3rd of Boone County, IL. Which means it’ll shift somewhere in the next 24hrs.
-
This storm is close enough to be on the HRRR. You’ll see the low placement at 48hrs in the lower left vs. the new 00z NAM
