raindancewx

SOI crash verified - Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 21 Nov 2020 1011.63 1008.30 2.86 7.21 8.15 20 Nov 2020 1013.38 1007.85 16.86 7.44 8.23 19 Nov 2020 1014.15 1008.10 20.17 6.99 8.14 18 Nov 2020 1014.69 1008.65 20.10 6.27 8.18 17 Nov 2020 1014.71 1009.05 17.69 5.38 8.25 16 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.05 11.45 4.53 8.37

The European has been showing a big precipitation event around 10 days from now. Would tie in well with the big time expected SOI crash today or tomorrow. The European has also been severely underestimating the current MJO wave. November 2000 has been very similar to the MJO wave this month. So we'll see if that continues. The big magnitude in phase 2 in 2000 was about two days earlier than this year, but it continued through phase 3 pretty easily.

December is favored to do what I expected in my outlook from October now that the earlier November idea of a late Nov -NAO seems to be off the table. Still think the NAO will go negative at some point in December, but I had December pretty warm anyway, and that still looks right to me.

This is what I get looking at non-El Nino Decembers following a November with a very positive NAO (top 1/3 +NAO for 1950-2019):

My idea for November has been that if we're to get a big storm it will be right at the end of the month. But it may actually be the first week of December. The European has been showing a pretty massive reversal in the SOI around 11/20. If we go from +10 or +20 to -10 or -20, you'll see something out here around Nov 30-Dec 2. Right now, there is a huge high by Tahiti, but it's going to be replaced by a pretty strong low. Tahiti going from being at the edge of a 1039 mb high to a good storm moving through in essentially two days. This may not actually be the peak of the transition but we'll see soon enough what the Australians come up with for the SOI.

The European has been showing a big SOI crash (big high by northern Australia, big low by Tahiti) around 11/20 that lasts for a days. Most recent SOI value was over 20 - the highest in a while - so we could see a 20-40 point crash in a short period that should shake everything up quite a bit around 12/1. The subsurface actually warmed this week too, it wasn't just a surface warming - still similar to 2007 in that regard which weakened in December from an earlier peak and then briefly rallied stronger in January. We're still not particularly close to the very highest Atlantic ACE seasons, but the composite at 180 ACE in a La Nina for 1931-2020 is not exactly a cold look. It's interesting though - four of the five "cold Neutral" years in the 140-220 range are still very much a like the 80-160 ACE La Nina composite. A lot of the years on the left also have extremely high solar activity, which we don't have this year. So if you take the cold-ENSO, low solar, similar ACE years, you get this look: Here are some strengths for the blend: 1932: Only other year on record with a category five hurricane in November in the Atlantic. (Cuba Hurricane of 1932). Snowed into the valleys of the Southwest in October. Fairly similar (but much colder) look to October (coldest Plains/Central). 1964: Delta was similar to Hilda in October, and the first half of November looks a lot like 1964 high temperatures nationally. Followed a weak El Nino like this La Nina is. 1996: Snowed into the valleys of the Southwest in October. Can't really think of any other particular similarities off the top of my head. This was actually the most recent "Major" snowstorm for Albuquerque in October, with several inches. Actually, the way the Jamstec depicts Summer next year in the tropical Pacific is very similar to how the 1997 El Nino developed - so that's another feature in favor of the year. 2008: Big Gulf of Mexico activity like this year, and some months have similar spatial patterns for temperatures (notably not great in Oct-Nov which were very cold in the SE). Pretty good QBO match. 2010: Bad match for the Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity. Similar QBO, followed an El Nino. Very different for blocking patterns and La Nina development. Not a fan of the year overall. 2016: Similar QBO, followed an El Nino. Main issue is the cold patch in the north Pacific (+PDO), and warm Nino 1.2. Also much weaker La Nina. Matthew was the first landfalling October hurricane in a while on the US mainland (Sandy was subtropical). The 1961-62 winter is a good QBO match, with similar types of Atlantic hurricane activity, and similar on NAO trends in the predictive periods for winter. But it had higher solar activity - but it looks almost identical to the six year composite. The six year blend actually looks a lot like November (although too cold).

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07OCT2020 19.5-1.2 23.4-1.5 25.5-1.2 27.8-0.8 14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 21OCT2020 19.9-1.1 23.8-1.2 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 28OCT2020 20.0-1.1 23.5-1.5 24.9-1.7 27.9-0.7 04NOV2020 20.3-1.0 23.6-1.3 25.1-1.5 27.8-0.8 11NOV2020 21.2-0.3 24.1-0.9 25.7-1.0 27.9-0.7 Pretty nice little warm up this week just about everywhere at the surface. Now well behind 2007 and 2010 for this week. Unlikely to last though. 10OCT2007 18.8-1.9 23.3-1.6 24.9-1.8 27.7-1.0 17OCT2007 18.6-2.2 23.5-1.4 25.3-1.4 27.9-0.7 24OCT2007 19.2-1.8 23.5-1.4 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 31OCT2007 19.7-1.5 23.2-1.8 25.2-1.5 27.8-0.8 07NOV2007 19.3-2.1 23.0-2.0 25.0-1.6 27.5-1.1 14NOV2007 19.2-2.3 23.2-1.7 25.2-1.5 27.3-1.3 06OCT2010 18.7-1.9 23.2-1.7 24.8-1.9 27.1-1.6 13OCT2010 18.9-1.9 23.0-2.0 25.1-1.6 27.1-1.6 20OCT2010 19.1-1.8 23.2-1.7 25.1-1.6 27.0-1.7 27OCT2010 19.8-1.3 23.6-1.4 25.2-1.5 27.0-1.6 03NOV2010 19.7-1.6 23.4-1.6 25.2-1.4 27.0-1.6 10NOV2010 19.5-1.9 23.5-1.5 25.2-1.4 27.2-1.5

The North Pacific actually looks like it is starting to respond to the La Nina with a lot of cooling in recent days. Would also say the PDO is trending toward a more normal looking negative phase. It looks to me like the centering of the La Nina will continue to slowly shift West for a while. Don't really expect eastern Nino 3 or Nino 1.2 to cool back down again for a while. One of the odder things about this even is how little the North Pacific has changed to date. I included 2019-20 as an analog almost solely because I suspected the little circled area would show up (presumably from high pressure persistence - I'd have to look).

A quick look at each Nov 1-15 from 1950-2019 shows that the current spatial look to November is fairly rare in that period. I only found six good matches nationally - 1964, 1975, 1978, 1987, 2011, and 2015. You're looking for something like this, but ideally warmer than 2011 was. The best match may be 1964 overall. Here is a look at the unweighted six year blended highs - 1964, 1975, 1978, 1987, 2011, 2015 for ten US cities 11/1-11/15: Boston: 59.9F v. (55.2+65.3+56.1+54.6+60.1+60.9)/6 --> 58.7F Richmond: 69.8F v. (70.2+72.9+68.7+66.6+65.0+66.1)/6 --> 68.3F Jacksonville: 78.7F v. (75.2+76.6+74.9+74.7+72.7+81.1)/6 --> 75.9F Detroit: 61.9F v. (64.0+61.3+58.7+55.3+59.4+60.9)/6 --> 59.9F Chicago: 62.9F v. (64.0+61.3+58.7+55.3+59.4+60.9)/6 --> 59.9F St. Louis: 67.3F v. (71.7+65.3+65.9+65.1+65.6+65.7)/6 --> 66.6F Billings: 51.0F v. (50.0+58.2+42.5+56.5+45.1+51.0)/6 --> 50.6F Albuquerque: 63.0F v. (61.1+66.7+63.7+61.9+56.9+58.7)/6 --> 61.5F San Diego: 72.7F v. (70.3+70.9+69.3+70.3+67.9+73.1)/6 --> 70.3F Seattle: 52.7F v. (48.3+53.7+50.3+56.5+51.2+52.3)/6 --> 52.1F The blend has a cold West look to December as a composite. The ten city average "error" for the Nov 1-15 blend is about 1.6 degrees. I find blends that close over a large area of the US usually hold for a little bit - but we'll see.

Cold morning lows have been a bit ahead of the analog schedule (black v. brown) so far for Albuquerque. Still behind last year though. It's a shame we didn't hit 100 lows <=32F last year with how cold in got in Oct-Nov. But we had super warm lows in March and barely any lows <=32F in Spring.

In 2000, the MJO increased in amplitude in phase 2 in mid-November like the models are showing, but then continued on through the subsequent phases. The increase in amplitude in phase 2 this year is not depicted to continue after that. I don't think I buy that completely, but we'll see soon enough. Very curious to see what the weekly data shows on Monday - think the eastern zones may be warming again, as some top layer cold seems to be thinning, but it is still pretty cold below the surface. I keep waiting for the MEI update too, they say on their website by the 10th of the month...but no update yet.

The GFS has been showing a much further south track than the European for the storm around 11/20. Will be interesting to see how that turns out. My winter blend implied November could be one of the wetter cold season months for NM/CO/AZ/UT, but would probably be late month if it did show up.

CPC has that warm December look through at least mid-month that we've become so familiar with over recent years. It's funny - the MJO is actually almost identical to 2000 (also a La Nina) right now but we're not getting anything like 2000 for actual weather with the Arctic behaving differently. But of course Nov/Dec 2000 are very cold.

I don't know if it applies area wide for the SW USA, but for Dec-Feb, Albuquerque is about 3F below the 1891 to 1920 high / 1951-2010 high in 1893-94. I'm sure we'll be very warm here in March though as we always do, so the map is probably about right for Dec-Mar. My main issue with 1893-94 is how dry it is here. It's like 0.25" for the entire winter. We do get dry La Nina years for sure (2017-18 most recently), but they tend to have a super-wet September (like 1893 and 2017) or a super high ACE value (180-280 like 1893 and 2017). 1988-89 is close to an inch here for winter, which is much more likely to me, that's ~25% below average for precipitation, but that year also had a very wet September, which almost always precedes an extremely dry period from Oct-May here in a La Nina. The 1988-89 winter is also super cold in the SW mid-Dec to mid-Jan: I find for temperatures, high elevations in the SE & SW are also slightly colder in low-solar winters than high-solar winters, and both 1893-94 and 1988-89 are pretty high for solar. The 1988-89 winter also followed a ~record wet monsoon. The long and short of it is I think maybe the blend is a bit colder than you realize in the West, and that precipitation patterns will probably be pretty different even though I largely agree with the overall temperature look. 1988-89 is pretty snowy deep into the SW. I have no idea how to get a temperature or snow map of 1893. The blend of 1988/1893 is actually a near perfect match on the current ACE value which does intrigue me somewhat, even though both years have very high solar activity.

A flat blend of 1954 and 2005 is a good match for the three variables I listed above up until about 180 ACE, especially with the solar activity rising fairly rapidly now. That was why I centered the ACE at 135 in my outlook, you can justify the look I want up to about 175 ACE, after that it's not really a likely outcome for the winter anymore. All that said, only the Caribbean is really warm enough to support a big hurricane at this point in the Atlantic and the tropical storms don't add much ACE. The Northern Gulf of Mexico is like 25C right now. The PDO hasn't really changed from October to November on the Nate Manuta index - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO January -0.23 February -0.68 March -0.82 April -0.57 May 0.09 June -0.08 July -0.38 August -0.28 September -0.70 October -0.69

The UKMet November update is warmer than last month for the winter. Looks like most of their recent November outlooks for winter have been bad for the US though. If that colder look in Western Canada verifies though, someone in the US should at least see impressive cold snaps if nothing else. The look is pretty dry along the Mexican border, but it would only be slightly dry where I am, which is more or less what my analogs had too. I would say the SE tended meaningfully drier on the new run in addition to the warmer look overall for the US. On their probabilistic outlook, Texas is most favored to be drier than average, with the NW & Ohio Valley most likely wet. Only California to Montana has a better than 20% shot of being colder than average on the new run, a smaller area than before.

With the ACE index over 160 now, the La Nina composite favors essentially the entire continental US above average for temperatures. That said, I don't think it should be compared directly, since a lot of storms this year never would have been named or correctly observed at a higher intensity like this year. So I'm treating the current reading like it is still about 150 by historical standards, which is still somewhat cooler in the Northwest. The ACE index is high enough now that places like NYC and Philly have a decent shot a snowy winter - you really can't get a snowy winter in those spots in a La Nina if the ACE is below 150. Even so, the odds are not great. The ten highest ACE La Ninas are 50/50 for above average snow in NYC, but the correlation is pretty direct, and those ten winters average ~200 ACE which is highly unlikely even with two tropical storms out there right now. I have an experimental regression for La Ninas winter highs here. Even at 160 or 170 ACE (favoring a hot SW in a La Nina), it favors a fairly cold winter here because we hit 90 degrees so early, which is where all the cold La Ninas are clustered locally. If you try to match on the three inputs, solar, ACE, and when we first hit 90, a blend of 1954 and 2005 is pretty close.

The local NWS likes a blend of 2007-08, 2010-11, 2016-17 for the winter. That blend is actually very wet for the West - that's my main issue with it. http://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/202021WinterOutlook.pdf

The local weather service likes 2016-17, 2010-11, 2007-08 as analogs for the winter. https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/202021WinterOutlook.pdf

I'm on board with what Roger said - there should be a storm that comes through the West like the October system that runs up the coast at some point, but it would be cold enough for most areas to see snow. It does look like he is using 1975-76 as the main year. Would be cool to see that Spring, pretty sure it snowed down to El Paso last week of April 1976. That was my issue with 1975-76 when I looked - I don't know that we'll transition into an El Nino next year. I don't have a good feel on that at all. The MJO in 1975 isn't terrible compared to this year, but its off by 2-3 weeks timing wise I'd say heading into December. That's one of the reasons I didn't give 2007 full weight in my outlook, it's been off for the MJO timing for a while now. The little heat core max over Nebraska and Missouri is very 1975-76, it's usually warmest in a La Nina in Texas, the Southwest or the Southeast, so it's likely that is the year used at least in part. December is probably the easiest to see as 1975, he's got Florida/New England near average with the heat in Montana like here - The winter of 1975-76 actually did have one very cold period nationally though. With the north Pacific and north Atlantic warmer than in 1975-76, I'd imagine this period would be pretty snowy in some places with more moisture available. I think 1975-76 is probably the right idea (though I don't buy the core of the heat over NE/MO), but with the MJO different I'd expect at least a somewhat different progression. You can see for instance October 1975 was pretty warm in the middle of the country, while it was pretty cold this year. October finished looking a lot like 1954 or even 1959 if you try to find a one year match, and those years do get pretty cold out here like Roger said.

SOI is still erratic - Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 9 Nov 2020 1012.67 1009.40 2.48 2.57 7.60 8 Nov 2020 1014.23 1009.25 13.36 2.96 7.67 7 Nov 2020 1014.72 1010.80 6.61 3.17 7.67 6 Nov 2020 1013.29 1011.15 -4.71 3.41 7.70 5 Nov 2020 1013.57 1011.60 -5.79 4.04 7.84 4 Nov 2020 1015.26 1011.85 3.37 4.66 8.16 3 Nov 2020 1016.75 1011.55 14.76 4.88 8.41 2 Nov 2020 1017.05 1010.50 23.35 4.62 8.39 1 Nov 2020 1016.75 1009.35 28.76 4.19 8.16 NOAA PDO went a bit more neutral in October. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30SEP2020 20.1-0.5 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 19.5-1.2 23.4-1.5 25.5-1.2 27.8-0.8 14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 21OCT2020 19.9-1.1 23.8-1.2 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 28OCT2020 20.0-1.1 23.5-1.5 24.9-1.7 27.9-0.7 04NOV2020 20.3-1.0 23.6-1.3 25.1-1.5 27.8-0.8 Bit of a warm up in all zones this week outside Nino 4. Still prefer 2007 to 2010 because of Nino 4. A blend of 2007/2011 is pretty close for this week as is 1995/2007 08NOV1995 20.6-0.8 23.9-1.1 25.8-0.9 28.1-0.5 07NOV2007 19.3-2.1 23.0-2.0 25.0-1.6 27.5-1.1 03NOV2010 19.7-1.6 23.4-1.6 25.2-1.4 27.0-1.6 02NOV2011 20.5-0.8 23.9-1.1 25.6-1.0 27.9-0.8

Love those big SOI crashes! Check out 11/3-11/5 and the corresponding Western snow 11/13-11/15. Snow anomalies from my winter outlook are very much on target. Don't think California is actually in for a particularly dry winter, but we'll see how that goes. Don't think it is super wet though either.

This is what I get for closest match August-October in each Nino zone, with Nino 1.2 weighted least (x1), and Nino 3.4 (x3) most. Nino 3 and Nino 4 are in between at x2. The unweighted blend is a bit different. 1952, 1959,1961, 1962,1966, 1978,1985, 1995,2007, 2011 For October alone, the top years are very different using the weighting above - Year Oct Oct Oct Oct Match 2020 20.24 23.85 25.48 27.97 0.00 2011 20.24 23.92 25.67 27.86 0.93 1999 20.15 23.60 25.48 27.79 0.95 1961 19.97 23.69 25.71 27.83 1.56 1970 19.88 23.71 25.60 27.59 1.76 2007 19.50 23.55 25.32 27.91 1.94 1956 19.82 23.91 25.75 27.64 2.01 The October blend looks what I had for winter.

Really hope we all get a lot of storms and snow through Feb/Mar. The semi-regular storms for just about the entire West since late October is a good development to counter all the smokiness, heat, dryness and fires. No rain here yet with the storm today. Albuquerque had a high of ~67 in my winter analogs 11/1-11/7, and so far we're at ~70, so it's been a decent match so far. My forecast had a high of ~60 for November locally, so still a long way to go - the cold CPC depicts in the next 10 days or so needs to verify for my forecast to be close. The SOI hasn't really connected with the impressive cold in the La Nina zones, so I'm thinking the warm North Pacific is counter-acting the usual strong La Nina effects to some degree. The cold ENSO years with a +0 to +8 SOI in October (below) tend to be pretty average to cold in the West overall. October 2020 SOI was +4. Only exception is 1933 which is not a great match to this year. A lot of these years are actually extremely hot or dry in the West in Summer-Fall before the flip cold, particularly 1954, 2007, 2012 and 1934. 1954 is probably the best match to October 2020 in the past 100 years nationally, with late hurricane activity, low sea ice for the time, a warm Atlantic, low solar, and a near identical temperature pattern for the US. It's also extremely cold in the SW in the winter - still have trouble buying that, even though I still fully expect some kind of cold-west pattern. We seem to be transitioning to that slowly this Fall, the near to record heat is at least being fought off more regularly than it was in May to September.

Bit more snow for NM today and Sunday. Nothing but rain for the city. I went with 0.05-0.35" for Albuquerque. 1988 has been showing up a lot in the 6-10 and 8-14 CPC analogs. Fingers crossed. If we aren't in a two year La Nina (and I don't think we are), I could see 1989 taking over as the best analog next year.