so_whats_happening

Saved for April final tally and Jan-Apr totals Below will be forecasts for May. Just as a reminder to have forecasts done by May 1st 6z. Penalties will be every 6 hours after 6z of 1% off total at the end of the month of May.

Updates through 4/18 DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA +8.2 +5.6 +3.1 +6 +7.6 +4 +3 +5.5 +0.3 +6 +4.5 +2.5 +5 +6 +3.5 +2.5 +4.5 +.5 Most places in the east and plains should cool slightly from these values above over the next couple days and essentially remain steady to the end of the month. In bold are the values I would expect to see for these locations by the end of the month to give you an idea where we may stand. I will add normal and consensus at the end of the month and update the January-April totals to reflect it as well. I also will tally up the snowfall forecast we had this past season as we progress through mid May to make sure we don't get any surprise snows in the front range over the next month.

Well this was quite the surprise to see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

The depiction of the subsurface alone would make me think at this early stage we are further west than two of the stronger Nino events in the last 30 years.

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

Unfortunately had a large gap in data for TAO recently but here is the 2N-2S TAO depiction of the subsurface. Reminder that CPC and TAO are different in coverage but overall represent things similarly.

2023 OHC for reference

Happy Easter. Here is a look at the monthly forecast, best of luck everyone. I will try to update consensus and normal into season totals and future updates, for consensus I just did median of the forecasts for each city. This seemed to be as close as I could get to consensus scoring as Roger did. I'll try to figure out how he did persistence going forward. Welcome Ga_Wx hope to see you more often. Starting in May we will continue on with forecasts submissions before May 1st 6z as we have done before. I will be a little lenient on penalties of 1% off every 6 hours late at first. Look to June forecast to be the time frame we do MAX temp forecasts for summer.

Seattle forecast 0.4 or 0.6?

Not a problem thanks for the forecast. @donsutherland1 @MJO812 we will be starting May forecasts to be due back at May 1st by 6z and each month after for the future. Would love to see everyone still participate but of course life happens. I will do my best to make it as close to what Roger was trying to do for these contests as we go along.

Awesome if you have time to drop a forecast this weekend we will keep late penalties out for this one.

Forecast by 6z 4/3 essentially 3 hours from now. Going forward we will be doing this on 1st of each month by 6z.

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

I did it for April 3rd @6z to get back into the swing of things but come May and onward we will go back to by the 1st at 6z.

Before I forget mine: DCA: +2.4 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +0.8 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +0.9 SEA: +0.4

From January scores done by Roger, February done by wxdude64, and March done by myself (just above) here are the standings as of the end of March. I hope this is all correct and this should become much smoother as we move forward. Bolded are the tops scores in each category. The asterisk is for months that were missed. We have quite the grouping going on and love to see newcomers each month. I will send out a message to folks about April who see missing thus far.

Here is the March update. Denver and Phoenix experienced unprecedented warmth for the month of March and all of us were over +5 away from actual anomalies so it resulted in a score of 0. Until I can figure out how to do Roger's 60 rule for extremely anomalous temperatures we will have to keep these at 0. If you find any of these numbers to be off/wrong or I missed anyone please feel free to reach out. I will add the accumulated score through the end of March in a bit. I left out Consensus and normal for now as the way i calculated it (consensus) is slightly off to how Roger had it back in January/February.

I don't know how anyone is surprised about the lack of data/products.

As much as I and many others would love to see the PDO actually change that ain't looking all to good right now regardless of ENSO state to come. Weak to moderate +ENSO is a solid call still with a tip to strong if it can actually get itself together. Super is a stretch but hey weird things happen. The more time passes the more I see this being situated further west with warming lets see how things shape up over the next month.

For getting back into it with April we can extend it to the 3rd of April 6z but going forward lets try to stick to the 1st of the month at 6z. There will be times where it won't be perfect. I think we will try to add penalties as we go along for late forecasts.

Wonderful! Thank you ill take a look tonight while im at work then. Im tagging all this so that it is easy to see going forward I'll also gather the march items in a few days. I actually kind of like it without the curve but ill let everyone else chime in as it was a tough forecast last month.

Lets do it! April Forecasts below and including scotty's just above. For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages. The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA This is from Roger's intial post so I'll just include it for each month going forward. Forecasts in by lets say April 3rd 06z to get back into it. We will figure out scoring as time goes on, I'll play around with it this week. March anomalies will be updated shortly.

Ill look up the Denver one because for some reason it didn't look to be listed from the link.

Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies: DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8) NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively) BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3) ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9) ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1) IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1) DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9) PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8) SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1) Any input/changes are appreciated!

I would be down to keep giving it a try. As for scoring this may take time to figure out but we can at least post the results for each month as well as snowfall and Max temps. I think it would be great to keep it going in honor of Roger.