StormchaserChuck!

I can't even get a High wind warning. 

^ you predicted the wetter than average, monsoon season, I remember, good call. 

I think we'll have an active October, but this isn't redeveloping west, all we have is the La Nina-name

Only glimpse of La Nina pattern since March-April

believe it or not everyone looks when there are no anomalies

Trough is the pattern since April, holding again today...

I kind of like 11-12 and 12-13 as an analog (solar cycle similitaries). look at this!

No reason the season shouldn't explode... we're average like 20TS in a La Nina since 1995/2000... 

3 La Nina's have never been warm-all-3

Starting point?

Look at my point though

No signs of a real -PNA coming.. we are probably going to fight it through Dec 2022_+PNA probably. Then -PNA recycle early Jan-Feb 2023, probably correlating with ENSO.

34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe it’ll be as cold as June, July and this violent August.

Prewtty warm August, Sept, Oct coming  actually

Really setting a trough pattern for the Winter. Wonder if we will break all the indexes suggesting warm, like 1/16+_year odds +warm. (ENSO/QBO/NAO)

This +AO to +EPO vortex really underperformed. 

I made this point about last Winter. 

12 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think @StormchaserChuck! assumes we know what he means. The folks from the original board probably do. Back then Chuck was doing some “research” and I remember him being very-well respected.  Not that he isn’t now in some circles, but for a clown like me, I would welcome some dumbing-down rhetoric in his posts. Particularly when he posts a lot of maps without explanation.

Yeah, I'm mostly referring to my previous researches. Hard to not be -PNA this Winter, and +NAO signal is now emerging

We are heading quickly into +NAO signal. 

Might be a pretty horrible Winter with La Nina

Yeah, despite +10F -PNA SSTs, there has been no real -PNA since Dec 2021, how interesting is that!

I continue to prove my point about the N. Hemisphere complete disconnect from ENSO/La Nina. This is +AAM, not what is likely in Moderate-Strong ENSO.

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much evidence of a strong la nina peak.....may make moderate early on before weakening by winter.

Weren't you in favor of el nino not even a month ago?

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

This is interesting. 

We might be "due" for a non- -PNA February. (I still think it will be -PNA Feb)

I don't think it will be the best since 2016. We are probably going into a Moderate-Strong La Nina and January, February have a -PNA signal. We could eek out a big snowstorm or 2, but I think weak-STJ, SE High pressure is the trend, again. 

I posted in the SNE Winter threat that +QBO/La Nina is -NAO, and the signal is like +100-150dm. lol. please get my posts off of review. WXUSAFAA deleted a Winter research post last year, that was a pretty good time pure scientific research, had my number tally and all.