Daniel Boone

13 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1975 had a positive Nov AO and 1978 had a very positive AO for November...2020 is hitting those high notes...Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 were cold despite the positive ao...1978 had a reversal of the positive ao the end of Dec...Feb had a great period of cold and snow...Feb 1976 had some snow the first week of Feb...I think the winter will start out mild until mid January or so...snowfall will be light until possibly Feb...One good week or two in Feb...analogs are 1974-75...1985-86...1971-72...these are my thoughts now...there is time for the pattern to change before Christmas as did in 1975...overall if we dont get a major storm like 2006 the winter will end up disappointing...time will tell...

You have 74-75 as an analog.  Didn't u mean 75-76 ?

On 10/17/2020 at 9:06 AM, Kentucky said:

 

 

I think that the npac difference may help direct the pac hp more east and polward than the typical ninas . May research and see how npac looked back in 95 and 2010 at this juncture. 

On 10/8/2020 at 3:29 PM, John1122 said:

October 1995 had several rounds of snow showers mid month and late month. I believe it was a La Nina too. 

Winter 95-96 started early and ended late. Long , snowy winter ala of those of yore.

    It was a weak Nina. Strong HLB.

Regarding the forecasted mild, fluke cold Winter of 2010-11, this area in the far Southwestern part of the Forum wound up with an above average Snow Season. Dec. and January was well above , Feb. Avg. Temps were well below. 

1.60" Rainfall so far today as of 9 p.m..creeks and streams are high, not far from flooding in some locals. Some street and small stream flooding observed.

   Forecasts and models underforecasted amounts with this one here.

No severe here tonight but, not far from flooding as have picked up over an inch and a half of Rain today and moderate to somewhat heavy at times continues.

   Just had a heavy snow shower here in Lee County with visibility down to 1/8 mile and Temp. in upper 30's. Rh was 59% when began so, no mixing due to evap..  Flakes were dime to nickel size. You can bet huge flakes and near whiteout higher eles.

Just had a heavy snow shower with visibility down to 1/8 mile and Temp. in upper 30's. Rh was 59% when began so, no mixing due to evap..  Flakes were dime to nickel size. You can bet huge flakes and near whiteout higher eles.

Down sloping from nearly every direction.  Only direction without it for much of the great Valley is from the SW or SSW.

Wound up with 1.8 inches overnight. 2 inch total yesterday last night combined.

Time of day, solar heating from thin cloud deck really working against us ion eastern areas where snow started later and sun shined for awhile. Temp here currently 33.

Started lightly here at 8;45 a.m. and became moderate for about an hour albeit the sun shown dimly thru a thin layer of stratuform . Ns and sc have developed over last hour but, snow is very fine.

 CMC did best for my area with this last snowfall. Others underforecasted amounts, per usual. Lee County should have been included in the wwa as should we this next go around as should several others with it imo. 

Measured 1.6 inches here.  More in some grassy areas.

Light Snow accumulation above 2000 ft. Here in Lee County this morning.  Est., 1-2" .

Light Snow accumulation above 2000 ft. Here in Lee County early this morning.  Est., 1-2" .

   The 2009 event started around 9a.m. Dec. 18. as mainly rain but, some wet snow mixed in at Jonesville that continued lt to moderate until mid afternoon of which just over a half inch liquid was recorded in my gauge. At that time precip became heavy and transitioned to heavy, wet Snow.  5" recorded at my home (ele., 1422 ft.) by time ended that night. Electric went out and was off 40 hours. Higher elevations recorded all snow with 1 to 2 feet. Wise recorded 28 inches ! Reports of over 3 feet from Wise , Dickenson and Russel Counties.   Highknoblandform.com  has a great write-up with documented reports and pictures .

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The event from February 2004 there was on a Sunday.  The Plateau got generally 6-10 inches of snow. NE Tennessee got 3 or so.  It was a cold rain event in Oak Ridge and Knoxville but as far south as Norris had 3 or 4 inches. I worked in west Knoxville at the time. When I went to work that Monday people didn't believe me when I said it had snowed at my house until I showed them about 8 inches in the bed of my truck. 

That one had a sharp cutoff on its northern periphery. Here in Lee County I had 5 inches at my home in Jonesville at the time. Just a mile to my Southwest in Flatwoods there was 8". Stickleyville in se Lee County, between Wallens ridge and Powell Mtn.  reported 9 inches.  St Charles just the other side of Stone Mountain had a dusting. Big Stone gap had none.

Wound up with half inch that melted quickly.  Flake size played a role here as the biggest they got was 3/8 diameter.

A dusting now with moderate snow; albeit rather small flakes. 32.5 deg.        Visibility 1/4 mile.

Snow began here at 8:35 a.m... temp fell from 36 then to 33 now. Snow began at 2500 feet at 8 :20 . Took 15 mins. To make it to my elevation.  1732'.

Snow showers currently in Wise and Norton.  Rain began mixing about 2 hours ago.

Snow showers currently in Wise and Norton. 

Snow showers currently in Wise and Norton.

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

That looks like a couple of inches on those junipers


.

That's 4-5" on those bushes.