Daniel Boone

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event  over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.

Yeah, that was the only good Month of that Winter. You outdone us here by about about 3 inches. The end of the Month one was the biggest. I think it was the 25th. 5 inches here . Would have been an inch or two more were not for it sleeting over an hour at the beginning. Ice pellets that mounted to about half inch. You probably had all Snow with that one. 

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

NAM'd

Hope that comes to fruition. It would make it easier to handle the cutter next Weekend. Carvers made good points regarding it . It could pay dividends afterward. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And you know, there is more.  Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 for fun.............I will trust that you will look at the stamps to see the duration.

 

 

 

That EC Ensemble 500 depiction is very close to Ideal. 

I buy into the Arctic Airmass coming into the lower 48. Not typical for a strong Nino but, with a rather Nina/Nino hybrid Pac Pattern to coin it,along with a strong -NAO and AO very much possible if not probable. 

I am rather saddened by the nw turn in the early Jan big Storm. Really not surprising though. Need a HP dropping down from the N or NW to keep that thing from doing that. A banana High would do the trick but, doesnt look to be a chance of that happening either. 

32 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Well I haven't seen measurable snow in 2 years. It makes a man crazy

Here's hoping the weakened TPV will allow for a strong push of Arctic air into the Central/Eastern US thereby causing a STJ System to dump on you. 

45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Shooting west of the Apps seems definitely on the table

Yeah, trending that way. Appears to be a weakness there up the eastern OV. 

38 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

12z GEFS screams model chaos after the first system...will be very hard for it to determine where/how to interact with this many lows parading across the country.

Yeah, 12z GooFuS has that System coming way North. At least CMC, UKMET still look good. Hopefully we get more HP to the North. The close proximity of the Lows hurts as it doesn't allow cold to funnel behind them. That can be a problem with Nino's. It does generally keep one from becoming strong and amping. However, the GFS has that first one a strong one and amping. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Ensembles are trending north too

Yeah but, as far as overall pattern compared to just a few days ago. Honestly, I hadn't looked at the 6z so yeah, that trough coming into the west sooner doesn't help matters. We need to get a true Nino augmented NPAC Aleutian LP. The -PDO is hurting . Mainly the extreme WPAC warm SST'S are what's appears to be causing the problem imo. Wants to force a Nina like NPAC. 

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Models are trending worse and worse for the next 2 or 3 systems. Lots of rain even for higher elevations. Punting until January 20 may be a real thing. 

Ensembles look better first half of January. Operationals are going to spit out different solutions often . 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Of course....

But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall.  Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI.  La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way.  Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me.  This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90.   The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI.  For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate.  Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one.  

My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone.  Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves.  The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes.  I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks.  Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area.  I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.  

 

Yeah agree 100%. Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Snowfall averages actually went up the last five years. 

Carvers, of course that's just a conspiracy theory from us regarding the political agenda, lol. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Yep. 14-15 was a winter where I also noticed data missing.  I recorded almost 30" at my house, and I live in the bubble at lower elevations.  But I know this, the snowfall maps made for TRI snowstorms(after the fact) are almost always underdone by 1-2" of snow, sometimes more.   I used to correct the maps, but have since stopped.  It isn't worth my time.

Yeah, I noticed that too. I wonder what they show for Lee County that Winter. ?. The range was 35 to over 50 inches (excluding Mountain tops). 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor records keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even the most recent storms.

I'll second that. Same with the so called official Pennington gap Site. It's just awful how poorly recorded and kept the Data is. It may not be political but, it looks it regardless. Climate agenda . 

Wound up with about half inch Total Snow here. Only a quarter inch or so on grass and snow board at any time however. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Complex for sure at this range.  The complexity itself likely means it changes many times between now and the event as you all noted.

I'll take a stab at it.  Weak low pressure - almost a lee side Plateau low.  Probably is a handoff to the Piedmont/Coast.  Downsloping city right there.  Air gets compressed, heats up, and we get warm air on the west side of the Apps...and less precip.  Add in some warm nose, and you get that look. On the west side of the eastern valley...cold air gets pushed by counter clockwise flow up against the Plateau.  The cold has nowhere to go.  Th precip rises through the cold air, further cooling the air column, and you get rates induced snow.  I have seen nearly that exact setup during ice storms.  I have had 30 degrees at TRI, and 40 in JC/Unicoi.  

Saw similar outcome in the big Jan 2016 Storm. Heavy Snow west and east of the great Valley. Mixed mess Valley. Wound up with just 4 inches at my house then. Oddly, portions of the County easily doubled that. 

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Just looked out and everything is covered in a blanket of snow. At least it looks like winter lol. Temp at 28. 

If this developing stuff in far SWVA/EKY and NE TN move that way expect more than forecasted. 

46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR discussion(brief)....extended ensembles are most definitely sensing the crawling MJO(in warm phases) after mid Jan.  We need a counter(block) to that where the NAO doesn't hook into an eastern ridge.  We need the trough to slide under that block and hold on.  If not, going to be very difficult to get winter to return with much meaningful time left on the clock.  That is not a winter cancel post(for after Jan 15th), but more like a special weather advisory with the potential for a watch to be issued at a later date.

Yeah, was checking out the MA Sub earlier and they're pretty torn up regarding that. The GEFS is the terrible looking one. We can work with the other's. We definitely don't want that La nina Ridge dig that western Trough like GEFS indicating along with a - NAO. Then we have what killed us last year. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Let's hope we score a couple times early January that way it'll be easier to take. 

13 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Man those streams of moisture building on radar the last few frames look stout. If we can get down to 32 this will stack on quickly. I've been hovering between 32.5 and 33.5 all day.

Yeah, a heavy shower quickly covered grass here. Looks like western Lee down through Hancock County is getting clocked with a strengthening training band. Also , area sinking south through Harlan County KY is moderate to heavy. Some areas will get a surprise accumulation tonight. 

Snow began here in Lee County VA around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing so not sticking as it's not heavy enough to overcome the slightly above freezing T and warm ground. A dusting is at mountain around 2000 ft and up so far. 

Snow began here around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing so not sticking as it's not heavy enough to overcome the slightly above freezing T and warm ground. A dusting is at mountain around 2000 ft and up so far. 

Lt Snow began here around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing so not sticking as it's not heavy enough to overcome the slightly above freezing T and warm ground. A dusting is at mountain around 2000 ft and up so far. 

Light snow began here around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing here. 34 now 33 at onset. Looks kike a dusting on mountain from 2000 ft on up so far. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX zone forecasts sometimes make no sense at all lol…for my location.

“Friday
A chance of rain and snow before 5pm, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night
A chance of snow showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 9pm, then a chance of snow showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Rain/snow on Friday changes to all rain after 5pm (lol)

Then at some point before 8pm it’s all snow but then Rain/snow between 8-9pm.




.

Yeah, sadly not a very professional forecast at all. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Just found out I’m getting off a 1/2 day tomorrow. I might head towards the plateau or maybe the Cherohala Skyway in Monroe Co.

I’ve got a Jeep Wrangler with 35/12.50’s. It’s pretty incredible how well it handles in the snow.




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Nice Toy !!! 

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ops are really amplifying the long wave pattern. One problem with that is the pacific wins in a route. I’ve brought this up. Recently it takes weeks to establish cold and the first time the flow goes zonal off the pacific it gets obliterated in 24 hours!  
 

In fairness it is cold before and after that period you posted but that’s a disappointing development if it does evolve that way and would likely mean we’re waiting until after the pac progresses again towards mid January.  By the time we are getting cold enough a temporary trough off the west coast immediately obliterated all the cold and we’re back to square one. 
 

Look I’m trying to be positive. But I’ve left it hanging out there that fail is an option and if so we have THE answer we’ve been beating around for years during this current pac cycle.  Even if it goes down the gfs op way I suspect it still progresses to a good look after. But if this cycle of “flow off torched pacific obliterated cold in 2 seconds after a week of trying to slowly build a colder profile, rinse repeat” continues all winter at least we have the answer. This winter will be productive one way or another. 

Yeah, Bluewave will look like a genius.