Daniel Boone
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Posts posted by Daniel Boone
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30 minutes ago, *Flash* said:
DT sounds super defeated in this video. I know his perspective is largely Hampton Roads based. It's been rough but he's talking like there's no light on the horizon.
I used to interact with him but, lost all respect. He is, as is any passioned Met or Enthusiast, knowledgeable in pretty much all facets of Meteorology. However, he is the epitome of Narcissist. Very insulting and demeaning if anyone disagrees with him. He busted terribly with his Wolfing Winter Storm back in December. He , as most other's did, bit the Model's projections. Thing is, if you brought it to his attention he'd lose his cool and excise it off somehow.
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About an inch and a half here. Sun's coming out now. Much of County did receive more but, I wound up with more than expected as it looked last night we'd be lucky to get an inch.
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14 minutes ago, John1122 said:
Still cranking out there. Back to full blown heavy snow at 29.9 degrees. Well under 1/4th mile visibility.
Shafted here so far. heavy dusting. looks like western end of County doing good.
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light snow falling here.
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22 minutes ago, John1122 said:
The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either.
Exactly. They're showing way more than typical elevation differences. Could be there factoring boundary layer heavier than usual.
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18 minutes ago, John1122 said:
Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas.
I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things.
That Feb. 2015 one wound up being the 15-20 inches deal for here. North Jonesville, near Stone Mountain officially reported 20 while my local se of Town 15".
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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
Oh Lawd it was a Le Conte NAMing at 18z
My take on the Models depiction for area's like Wise for instance are snowfall projections are too low, if the setup depicted is realized.
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12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
One thing I also like about this upslope is that the vorts rotating through seems to be positioned in just the right way to accentuate the Lake Michigan feed.
The red arrows are vort lobes rotating in and the blue arrow is the fetch off lake Michigan. I'm not sure if it works the same way as a jet or not, but that should put places from the Smokies north in the left exit region of the vort max and help maximize not only the orographic lift but the PVA as well.
There is a 500 wind max over east central MS as well:
but that may be too far away to help much,
The above were from the 12z 3km NAM just for resolution purposes.
Euro has the two vort maxes too, just at a lower resolution.
Good work Holston ! Thanks for all you do. I seldom feel like doing much these days and what you, Carver's John etal do really helps. I Hope / pray your loved one"s are recovering.
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26 minutes ago, John1122 said:
I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby.
You know that couldn't happen. KMRX say's you only have a 40-50% chance of an inch or more.
lol
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19 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that….
thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically.
Praying for you and your Family brother. I hope all goes well and for a speedy recovery.
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10 hours ago, John1122 said:
The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here.
I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events.
We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to.
I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row.
Those were the good ole day's.
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17 hours ago, Met1985 said:
If you don't like the looks of the weeklies or trust them then look at the ensembles currently. All three of the major long range models have a positive PNA and a negative epo pattern setting up around the 20th of this month. To me that's some pretty good signs but to others the damn sky is falling everyday....
That's that meltdown I was talking about brother, lol.
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We are really having trouble getting any meaningful 50-50 LP this Season. A problem for sure. Those SST's there apparently the main culprit.
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21 minutes ago, Albedoman said:
until the LP's hit the western coast, everything in the LR is a crap shoot in this trifecta La Nina pattern. Just keep looking at 3-5 days models out only. It will brighten your outlook. Analog year 49-50 where the temps and the precip were nearly the same as this year thus far. That was a La Nina year too. This means snow will be hard to come by this year any way we look at it.
January 1950 Allentown Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) 41 27 0.00 0.0 42 34 0.00 0.0 57 37 0.09 0.0 66 51 0.00 0.0 59 45 0.03 0.0 50 40 0.19 0.0 47 28 0.19 0.0 29 14 0.00 0.0 36 13 0.00 0.0 45 34 0.89 0.0 47 24 0.00 0.0 32 21 0.03 0.0 38 29 0.05 0.0 57 36 0.02 0.0 38 24 0.00 0.0 45 30 0.00 0.0 38 25 0.00 0.0 51 28 0.13 0.3 29 19 0.00 0.0 30 14 0.00 0.0 37 23 0.00 0.0 42 31 0.01 0.0 46 34 0.00 0.0 44 38 0.11 0.0 44 40 0.00 0.0 72 41 0.05 0.0 48 22 0.08 0.0 34 18 0.10 0.0 46 33 0.19 0.0 45 31 0.05 0.0 35 27 0.45 0.5 February 1950 Allentown Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) 32 27 0.13 1.8 38 30 0.51 0.4 38 24 0.00 0.0 39 22 0.00 0.0 37 21 0.00 0.0 35 24 0.15 0.3 39 20 0.00 0.0 33 7 0.00 0.0 46 27 0.67 0.2 39 29 0.13 0.2 49 29 0.00 0.0 49 25 0.00 0.0 37 30 0.85 3.3 34 31 0.57 0.2 39 34 0.16 0.0 42 30 0.00 0.0 41 30 0.00 0.0 43 30 0.00 0.0 42 23 0.01 0.1 24 6 0.00 0.0 24 3 0.00 0.0 27 20 0.21 0.1 34 23 0.18 0.2 45 21 0.00 0.0 29 18 0.00 0.0 26 11 0.00 0.0 24 8 0.00 0.0 34 10 0.01 0.0 March 1950 Allentown Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) 45 25 0.00 0.0 26 11 0.00 0.0 27 8 0.00 0.0 35 7 0.00 0.0 57 15 0.00 0.0 44 23 0.00 0.0 42 15 0.00 0.0 64 32 1.01 0.0 35 20 0.00 0.0 35 20 0.00 0.0 42 20 0.14 0.3 50 32 0.01 0.0 35 30 0.31 0.0 38 23 0.00 0.0 49 24 0.00 0.0 33 22 0.00 0.0 44 25 0.00 0.0 40 22 0.02 0.0 44 17 0.00 0.0 47 19 0.01 0.0 43 33 1.06 0.0 40 34 0.44 0.0 39 34 0.68 0.0 50 34 0.00 0.0 47 30 0.04 0.0 50 31 0.58 0.0 48 35 0.01 0.0 72 48 0.18 0.0 56 30 0.09 0.0 42 27 0.00 0.0 48 22 0.00 0.0 The warmest January on record Analog. lol.
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There are some signs an overall mild eastern pattern continues with short breaks through January(hopefully not). You know, if the mild eastern pattern remains dominant into early FEB., the 71-72 may come into play as somewhat of an analog. That was a 2nd Year Nina and was one of mine for last Winter. That Winter featured an Alaskan Vortex in Jan/Feb of which finally shifted by mid Feb.(may of been a strat. disruption) and much of that cold moved into the Eastern US. A Miller A moved up the coast that phased with a LP over the Eastern Lakes. We received 8 inches from that one on the 17th. That was a memorable one for me as I was in hospital with the Flu . I recall people commenting that day that it was in the 20's out and the snow had just started just west of Town(Penn.gap). I got out the next day and man was it cold and windy!
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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:
And just like that the 12z GFS has a trackable system next Sunday. Temps are marginal in the valley, but the track is sound. At min, that is threat for the mountains if the GFS is right - big IF!
Been keeping up with that one. I've been letting the locals know about it as a time to watch for the possibility of wet snow. I'm thinking a pretty good liklihood for higher eles but leaning , mainly cold rain lower for the most part as of now.
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The West is having a banter Winter ❄️
Nina's their best friend out there.
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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:
I very rarely read other sites than AmWx, but I have read similar thoughts on this forum(maybe MA). Our weather has responded accordingly so far this winter to MJO cycles. Within four days of it going into warm cycles, it turned very warm here right after Christmas. Is it possible that it decouples? Sure. That happens. We have been cold during warm phases before. I am sure the opposite could happen. But until it actually decouples, I will give it weight. The waffling in LR modeling actually parallels nicely the MJO trying to loop back in 7.
Exactly. If you just look at where the Model's have the MJO, you'll see the correspondence in the 500 Chart's.
It carries alot of weight.
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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:
7.5” of snow in one hour? I’m not sure how that’s even possible. I’m sure the ratios are really high but come on….
.An excerpt from a Weather channel Article : There are documented case's of a foot per hour in Lake effect area's of New York. Burt compiled a list of the record snowfall rates in his book "Extreme Weather", and the top amount in a single hour was 12 inches in Copenhagen, New York, Dec. 2, 1966. That same location also picked up 6 inches in 30 minutes during the event
I've recorded 6" in an hour and 10 minutes.
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14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
If I’m right about this winter, the second half of January is our best shot at a decent snowfall.
We whiff this time and Feb goes +3 with the -pna/SE ridge coming back, best we can hope for is a late Feb early March gift.
You may be right brother. I am sort of leaning(more like hoping for,lol) toward a non typical Nina Feb. . I'm banking that on the MJO. Those SST's should warm enough by then to allow for greater amplitude into the cold phases. Of course, we will start having wave length changes late Month of which will affect one way or the other. The Atlantic is really a thorn still, as we need that 50-50 and those SST's affecting that area may not become favorable.
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39 minutes ago, cbmclean said:
I wouldn't say December was punted. More like we kept fumbling. The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points.
excellent way of describing it. well said, lol
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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:
Yep, Twitter group think is real. Whatever viewpoint one wants, it is on Twitter. LOL. The first 5 days will likely be super warm which makes a warm January highly likely. But as we found w/ December, warm starts don't tell the entire story. I do think this side of the Apps is far better situated for cold and even in western NC. And Boone, I know you know this. I am not really interested if the month is base warm. What I look for are winter storm windows. Cold helps, but we get some leeway during January which we don't have during other months. To me, I see 2-3 storm windows with increasing chances as each week passes. We are going to be fighting source regions, but the MJO rotations have generally looked not hostile. And the MJO is moving so slowly, if it gets into 8...it may take some time to get it out of there. I have seen winter end during January, and this is not how it usually looks when that occurs. Right now, it looks like the pattern is going to slowly reload like it did during November.
Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly. The Month will probably end warmer than average but, not outrageously so. That's base Nina. Almost a given . However, if we can get things to align right if that MJO gets into cold ph. and crawls, there's a chance for maybe a somewhat cooler than avg. Month . Tough to do in a Nina as we all know but, it can and has happened.
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The Southeast Crew is having a meltdown. Some of the Twitter musings they're looking at. I don't know what some of those are going by but, nothing has really given a definitive absolute of a warm January like some are touting . Like it's set in stone; like the Gospel or something.
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10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:
I feel like NYC did that over approximately that period back in 2011. It was pretty epic.
Happened here in Feb. 2015.
January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
in Tennessee Valley
Posted
Yeah, lr will tend to want to show some enso base state pattern influences such as Alaskan/Aleutian ridging. Probability is higher of those occurrences with Nina base state as we know. Hopefully, a PV stretch or MJO will thwart that but, won't be surprised if the former happens. Wavelengths will begin shortening in Feb. as Carver alluded to so , things will shuffle for sure.