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Daniel Boone

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    2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

    Yall can bail anytime yall want to but im still optimistic about everything especially for us mountain folk.  The foothills is a different story and may I remind you the NAM has had issues recently with snowfall and with accumulations. 

    Good post . Spot on. The Nam last I knew still has a warm bias. Don't think it was ever corrected. Also, I think your location and 2500+ ele should do fine.

    • Like 2

    February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, Buddy1987 said:

    NAM warmer so far at 18Z. I did see Euro however and it did look pretty darn good. 

    hmm., faster arrival time before daytime heating should make for colder. tht's what looked like is what caused models to back off on snowfall; the later arrival of precip till Sunday afternoon.

    February 11-13 ULL event

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

    I'll give Morristown this......................... 9 times out of 10 they will be right about snowfall in our region when playing it down.  We (snow lovers) just have to hope this is a 1 of 10 situation.

    They are generally right for the cental/ Southern Valley and have gotten some better for northern sections. Spotter reports are few from SWVA so, that is one reason for being less accurate for northern zones but, they have increased somewhat and seems to be helping.

        KMRX uses solely NBM so, take that for what it is i. e, if a superior model such as the EURO once was showed 12" snowfall for the entire Valley but, the rest showed 1-4" the NBM Output would be abysmal regardless of the best models output. No specific Model is weighted more. 

         

    • Like 4

    February 11-13 ULL event

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


    MRX will almost always ride with the NWS blend and IMO it is typically 50-75% underdone compared to all of the other mods. Which is confusing considering it’s a blend. Now it’s going to be right or close most of the time because of climatology but when we do get a event that’s more than 5”, it usually busts big time.


    .

    Yeah, that is what they do. NBM all the way. 

    • Like 1

    February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies.

    Yeah, good reason for that with the SSW effects coinciding with what looks to be other parameters lining up. Cross Polar Flow looks to be in the picture as well. So, providing something doesn't throw a monkey wrench late Feb/ to mid March may be our most wintry period of this lackluster Winter. 

          The West has had a wall to wall, trifecta one. Been a long time since we've had that. Thinking 2009-10 or maybe 2010-11 was last one. 

    • Like 2

    February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Just now, fountainguy97 said:

    It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too.  It sure is stubborn.  Still by far the outlier.

    Hopefully, this time the wretched thing won't score a Coup. I can see how that solution is possible, however. Saw it with the March 2009 System, although it was basically a strong Clipper traveling the Jet Trough SE through Arkansas, West Tn and across Alabama, Georgia then curving North grazing far Eastern TN and slamming Carolina's and Wytheville VA eastward. We were in that void area in the Trough. 

    • Like 2

    February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, GaWx said:

     I don't recall finding anything special about phase 4-5 over other phases for NC. But what I can tell you about MJO tendencies regards RDU 6"+ snows (and by extension a good number of major SE winter storms in general including at ATL) and is this:  low amp (within COD...most of them) to moderately low amplitude (between 1 and 1.5) was present for an amazing 93% of the big RDU storms since the daily MJO index started (13 of 14)! Only 1/17-18/2018 had an amplitude higher than 1.5 and it just happened to be in phase 4. It had an amp of 1.9. So, even that wasn't a high (2+) amp.

     So, I can say that none of RDU's fourteen 6"+ snows since the MJO started getting tracked daily had a high amplitude MJO (2+). The odds of any DJFM day having an amp of 2+ are 20%. So, the expectation if there were no tendency based on that would be for three of those fourteen 6"+ snows to have an amp of 2+. Having no high amp together with the fact that most of the 14 were when the MJO was within the circle tell me that the lower the amplitude the better the odds of a big snow in RDU and vicinity.

    Edit: Aside: Every ATL major IP or ZR since 1979 was within the circle entirely (all but one) or partially (one that was on two calendar days)! More evidence that being either inside or barely outside the circle is best for major wintry precip chances.

    Edit #2: The MJO forecasts have a 1.0 to 1.50 amp (low end moderate) for Feb 12th, which is the day with the highest threat for snow. So, although not ideal since it isn't inside the circle, it is not bad either since it isn't too far outside.

    Great work as usual Larry !!! 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
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