Daniel Boone

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface. 

As you know, Eric Webb , snowman 19 begs to differ saying it's going to East based. Eric gave his reasons. Hopefully ur right Chuck. If warming does propagate eastward per Webb's reasoning, I still can't see how you'd get East based. Basin wide, possibly. 

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter's only 10 days away!

Exactly. 

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8.  TIFWIW

Yeah, know what ur saying with the fwiw, lol. Seems just as things are looking like they're going to pan out something throws a monkey wrench and shatters everything. That SW pullback tucked under Trough that was a thorn last year and that we feared as a possible occurrence again seems to want to happen again and pump a SE Ridge at times. Hopefully, it won't be deep and can be countered with upstream Blocking. 

   Rooting for the Canadian . 

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa  than 1950.  1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State.

 

The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November.  Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.

Thanks buddy ! Knew you'd know. I had 51 for 52. 

      Great information!!! 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Wouldnt surprise me if the models get even colder post Thanksgiving,this was yesterday in East Asia,maybe we can get more moisture with a stronger CF that kicks in with a stronger STJ than the models are showing now for some thunderstorms,of course we need rain with thunderstorms or that could promote more wild fires..lol.Man we need some rain

Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm.  Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". 

     The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 .

John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John.... 

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame.  Euro has the same set-up.  No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...

Yeah. Hopefully it pans out for us Winter weather lover's. I'm a bit skeptical as tropical forcing from the STJ appears to be going from almost non-existent to full blown heavy duty all at once on some guidance. That may shunt any deep arctic air push. However, with that much blocking, alk to Grelnd. It may . Or if a strong System rides along that Jet and wraps and pulls that air down. 

    Either way, we'd e looking at high chances of frozen precip. 

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit?  Again, I don't think that is right, but man...

Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes. 

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There was a person about 2 miles SE of me trying to burn a big pile of brush Thursday and there's another guy trying to clear several acres to my NW who has ongoing smoldering fires. There's probably a hundred yards between those fires and the woods, but TBH there is a non 0 chance that either could hop to the woods and if that happens I'm screwed. At least the guy with the several acres is trying to control his brushpiles, but the guy to my SE just started burning his brush Thursday. 

I still see folks throwing cigarettes out the window in highway 62 between Oliver Springs and Wartburg. I guess its the typical "well my house isn't on fire so it doesn't concern me" crowd. 

We had a pretty good rain for like 5 minutes yesterday evening, I could even hear it in the house. 

What in the world happened to this El-Nino pattern early this fall? Up through maybe mid August it seemed like we were going to to have a pretty wet fall. There were some days it just rained and rained and then *poof* it evaporated. Some of the driest fall records we are breaking in some locations go back to the late 1800s. 

GFS for the qpf win this morning:

 

Ensembles see at least and inch to be likely by next week, but we'll see if that actually pans out. 

 

 

Wound up with .30" here. I see area's just north of here did well. Less to the south.  Multiple fire's here in Lee County as well. Alot of acreage has been burned. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit.  The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles.  I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.

Yeah, saw that after posting that. I'm still a bit gun-shy. 18z ensembles look good for last week of November. If they pan out I will lean toward a decent Winter. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Early winter season model war:

12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up)

Vastly different after d8......

Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter.  That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn. 

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nice to see more rain and snow coming for me. Driest 12-month period for any time frame, i.e. Nov-Oct, Jan-Dec, May-Apr, etc back to 1892 is around 3.5-4.0 inches here. We were flirting with those record dry periods in the absence of rain in July. Starting to reverse now. It's almost like the subtropical jet is responding to an El Nino or something.

Severe Drought in this neck of the woods. Looks to finally start getting chipped away. 

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been ignoring Webber and Roundy since it became apparent to me that they weren't interested in anything other than perpetuating their own agendas....probably about August or so. They both look irresponsible,  obstinate and silly. 

For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure. 

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

Maybe he just identifies as a Meteorologist. Sure beginning to look that way. 

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20

AO goes negative 11/24

Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range.

Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away.. 

Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day. 

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Big ridge moves in after day 10.

 

As we know, those change as often as a 20 yo woman getting ready for a night on the Town. 

     Odds favor a warmup around mid December. If you go total Nino = warm December then you're going to swear by runs like that one and declare it. Colder Nino December's generally had a mild prelude as well but, went back cold. 

7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like our cold source regions are on fire.     I'm all for torching until xmas....     

Also some support with the mjo charging forward into the warm phases

Hopefully it'll go low amp or into cod in those areas. Possible with SST Configuration. 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs.  Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now.  

Right on man ! From my record keeping going back to the 70's , that is what they indicate as well. I'm just hoping this new climate era won't cause it to be different. 

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies (control and mean) continue to depict a robust Nino pattern for the second week of December.  Transitions occurs prior.  6" snow mean for NE TN and SW VA.  Control has snow into New Orleans.

Yeah, CFS Weeklies looking good as well. -EPO Ftw. Hopefully these depictions come to fruition more times than not and not the tucking under sw trough and eastern ridging . Would setup a great Winter Pattern. 

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. Math must not be your strong suit. I know you guys like to start data sets with the coldest numbers on record as the mean, but thats not how averages work. 

By your math, Milwaukees climate warmed an incredible 9° from 1875 to 1878. 

When someone says that a given location has warmed 1-2° its an average, not just starting from the coldest datapoint in the entire record.

The current Administration and UN says he's right.  lol

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

I'm surprised you didn't get a weenie from the usual suspect over that outlook. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

Good work man ! 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…

Big difference in results with those 2 Winters too. February in particular. Feb. 2015 was spectacular. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off.

 

 

 

 

All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.

Yeah. Marginal Temps played a part as elevated area's got clocked on several occasions during the stronger Ninos, whereas lower eles would get mix or rain, therefore creating a greater than normal difference between the Valleys and the higher elevations. As far as western areas, Nino's tend to favor Eastern irt Snow, particularly when blocking is present, imo. 

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Great Job man ! 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

Exactly.