4 hours ago, griteater said:

Here is an MJO product that combines the standard MJO with the current 120-day signal (i.e. the background base tropical forcing pattern).  This product has the MJO running thru 8-1-2 from Dec 15 to Jan 10.  Euro Weeklies look similar.

Source: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/

 

If that turns out to be realized, good odds of a cold probably snowy Holiday period, providing that warm pool off Japan doesn't throw a monkey wrench and alter the typical downstream pattern. Could that be at least partially responsible for an eastward displaced Aleutian/Goa Lp.?. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX mentioned snow above 3k' I "think."

The 12z Euro also is picking up on an active (mostly rainy) wx pattern during the next ten days.  That storm around 170-180hr probably is going to have to be watched for frozen possibilities either with wrap around or with the storm itself.  There may be some minor upslope potential following it.  Still way out there, so lots of possibilities...but generally a slp tracking to our SE w/ marginal surface temps.

Yeah, checked their Twitter and they finally did mention possibly ending as a mix in the Mountains Monday morning last night. Of course they were referencing higher elevations. So, still late and also the elevation and precip type part. With the setup and model output I'd worded flurries in the lower eles Monday morning with snow shower's in higher elevations ending late morning.

    Depending on how long and strong blocking holds, could be cooler than indicated during projected mild period. 

That warm pool off Japan has and is having impacts on the 500mb pattern as Bluewave has been harping on for awhile now. That PAC Jet is a powerhouse over that area now. Will it cause the goa lp to be displaced east from typical Nino forcing locations ? Will it alter the MJO typical forcing as well ? Going to be some odd set ups this Winter I believe. 

First flakes of Season in lower elevations of Lee County this morning as flurries were observed. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It snow showered here late last night and there were a few flurries this morning. Cold this afternoon. Only 34 so far. 

I don't think KJKL or KMRX ever even mentioned the possibility. Really surprised at that... Particularly JKL. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I don't expect a cold winter. Not many people do. I'm hoping we can get enough cold and precipitation to allow for a winter event at some point this winter. I always stay optimistic that it will somehow be colder but only time will tell.

Yeah. Hopefully we can land a couple storms at the least. Odds still better than last with active STJ. 

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The ensembles aren't terrible at 500, but the source region is hot garbage.  That said the 12z operational runs are decent....what I can't tell is if the operationals are trying to catch-up to the ensembles, or in a rare case...it is the other way around.  LC had a great discussion on his Saturday night write-up and also a post earlier today.  He is reasonably optimistic.  He notes that changes(which were on the weeklies) can now be seen on operational and ensemble runs.  But he says it will take some time for the NA air mass to cool back down.  He did note that snowpack in Ontario and Quebec should build, and that would help place a semi-permanent trough over eastern NA by mid Jan.  He cautions patience, and notes that the Nino should begin to decay which would produce a weak Nino by mid-winter.  That would be huge.  Of course, there are always the stinker analogs from the 90s to keep us grounded!  Hope you had a great Thanksgiving.  

At least it looks like rains are returning at a fairly regular clip!  Jeff's post earlier is prob on the money about the first half of Dec being warm....though I was not a huge fan of the '22 cold coming all at once reference.  I hope that wasn't a hint.  That was prob too much cold in my book - at least the wind chills anyway!!!

If the winter is AN (temps) in eastern areas, the first two weeks of Dec will likely decide that.  If it is just +3-5F, I think the rest of DJF will off set that with Feb being the tipping point for BN.  As a whole, it would not surprise me to see the winter be slightly AN temp wise, but with seasonal snow for eastern areas.  Again, the opposite of last winter is very much in play.  But....no slam dunk!

Good post buddy. Yeah, LC still is optimistic. As with many he is a bit more reserved. I still haven't spoke with him. I'll give him a buzz and maybe get a little more out of him. I think with the continued intensification of El nino at this juncture has gun shyed some of us . The Japanese warm pool is more concern to me.

 As I mentioned on another forum, the strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 were decent around here snowfall wise. It's the one's Don S. brought up that were terrible here. '72-73, 91-92, '94-95. Stinkers as you said, lol

     Btw, Wife was up early and saw flurries as did many other's here. Small flakes. 

Anybody see any flakes ? I didn't but, apparently some were falling above 2500 ft as could be seen on Mountains. 

     As far as the pattern, I wish I'd kept my hopes down regarding an early winter start. Many of us suspicioned that big warm pool off Japan was influencing/ altering the pattern causing a La nina background state within a strong Nino and affecting the MJO as well.

       It obviously is influencing the NA Pattern. Look at the intensity of that Firehose Pac Jet over that area ! Other Drivers are there but, that is a strong one. El Nino forcing will fight against it but, question is , will it pop the typical Aleutian Lp where we want it or be forced further east by that warm pool intensified Pac Jet... 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those weren’t great winters up here. Parts of the South from Georgia into the Carolinas had a historic snowstorm during February 1973.

Yeah, that one clocked that area with up to two feet in South Carolina ! 

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2023 appears poised to move into little charted, if not uncharted territory for an El Niño event with a Region 3.4 anomaly of +1° or above and a negative PDO. None of the three cases since 1950 featured a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The possibility of such an outcome exists this time around, possibly due to ongoing marine heatwaves that have distorted the effects of the ongoing El Niño to date. With the AAM forecast to go positive during the first week of December, there is also the risk of the development of a more typical El Niño hemispheric pattern. During that time, the MJO could approach or reach the warmer Maritime Continent phases.

Some lessons from the past might be applicable, especially when one considers the periods of blocking that occurred during those past three cases (December 15-18, 1972 and December 1-6, 1991):

1. Cold could be nearby or present when Atlantic blocking is ongoing. As the climate has warmed since these cases, especially 1972, areas of cold could be less expansive and less impressive than they were during the December 1972 and December 1991 blocking episodes. Overall, December 2023 could be colder relative to normal than the 1972, 1991, and 1994 cases, but not necessarily colder than normal, as blocking should be present for a longer period of time than during those cases.

2. Monthly snowfall will likely be linked to the presence of the blocking. All of December 1991's 0.7" snowfall in New York City occurred when the AO and NAO were negative. Total snowfall for December 1972 and 1994 came to a trace.

Given historic experience with the three El Niño cases above, keeping in mind the tiny sample size, there remains at least some risk that the blocking forecast for early December could break down for the second half of the month.

The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The static background state is the expanding record WPAC warm pool leading to stronger and more frequent MJO 4-6 phases and multiyear La Ninas. This can even occur during super El Niños like in December 2015. And we saw how this background state prevented the 18-19 El Niño from coupling.
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

• Bin Wang, 
• Weiyi Sun, 
• Chunhan Jin, 
• Xiao Luo, 
• Young-Min Yang, 
• Tim Li, 
• Baoqiang Xiang, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Mark A. Cane, 
• Feifei Jin, 
• Fei Liu & 
• Jian Liu 

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 1075–1081 (2023)Cite this article

• 8180 Accesses

• 188 Altmetric

• Metrics details

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

Abstract

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

It's all those Nukes NK fired into that Area 

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The one nitpick on the GEFS and EPS in the LR is the position of the NE PAC low. A GoA trough long term will limit cold air availability, esp if it is strong. Want that to retrograde more towards the Aleutians. GEPS has a much more favorable look there.

Yeah, that's the eyesore we addressed a few days ago when the good pattern started showing up. Once the MJO gets to 7-8 it should help position it back where we want it if it's not already there as Model's may adjust west of what's depicted. 

One of our biggest problems of late has been the -NAO always forming during a crappy Pacific. Also, phasing of systems forming formidable LP to our South are almost non existent anymore. 

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z NAM shows some light snow showers over the region after the front passes (north of I-40 and Plateau eastward, especially higher elevations).

Kind of suspected that to be the case. Mentioned that to locals here couple days ago.  Setup looks favorable for first Valley flakes as at the very least there should be enough residual moisture to produce at least small dendrites. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. 

Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. 

I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away.  If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

Nice area there Bob. Spent some time there. 

40 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. 

Ur the ultimate Optimist Jeb ! 

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Yeah, that right there could be problematic if realized and decent Amplitude. 

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result.

A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

Yeah, imo the main muting effect for the East if that does transpire would be a formidable -NAO. 

1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

Saw this article on CNN about the difference in snowfall compared to 50 years ago. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html

CNN.. I don't know whether to believe it or not then. Lol

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That’s my read of what he is talking about also but I disagree with his implied conclusion.   sometimes that fact matters more/less.  If we were in a hostile La Niña pattern an “in situ” more locally induced -nao would be less likely to help or persist. It would be quickly destructively interfered with. But in a nino these in situ naos can be repetitive and productive because the long wave pattern can constructively enhance them. 
 

It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state. 

In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree.  As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO.  I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain.  But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here.  One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge.  I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S.  An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.  

In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

He's mentioned this before but he usually references the transient NATL thumb, this is definitely not the transient thumb where you briefly for 2-3 days get positive heights over Greenland.  Its really the only reason we do not go full blown epic torch 12/1-12/3 with that western pattern.  Without that Greenland ridging we'd have a massive SER with highs in the 60s probably on those 3 days

He couldn't be wrong. How dare you question dt the great. The self professed best. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

Hopefully, that goa low will be further west. 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

We do have at least a month or so to get the final answer. But imho if you were being perfectly honest, you’d admit that todays 0.08 drops were not what you wanted to see/not helpful to chances of ever seeing a+2.4+ daily, even if they reduced the chance just modestly. To improve your quality as a poster, I’d hope to see more objectivity from you as opposed to you just sounding one sided all the time. It is like you never acknowledge that things can be going against your predictions. You’ve been great for this thread and the thread wouldn’t be the same without you. I never make fun of you. But I feel you’d be a better contributor if you’d at least better acknowledge when things go the other way. 

Yes, respect other's.. throwing weenies, lol, at those that's been in the business longer than you've been alive is just low imo. 

     He has some good discussion if like you said, would not be so one sided . 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.

Exactly. That's what's been the flaw with an otherwise advertised great pattern. Hopefully, that does correct and park where we want it.