Daniel Boone

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And continuing to look forward, some things I have seen in modeling just to review or add to:

1.  The MJO generally looks like it will traverse the cold phases at low amplitude.

2.  The CFSv2 is not enthused w/ cold until later in the month on about every-other-run.

3.  Ensembles are a buffet of PNA and/or HB blocks w/ generally BN heights over the SE and E by Jan 8-10.  We lose the Greenland block for some time.  There are hints it may return.

4.  Be happy you live on this side of the Apps in regards to cold and snow. If indeed this is the start to winter(and not the totality of winter as seen in 89), last week was a great start.

5.  The Euro Weeklies (difficult to know if bias is in play there), takes the trough back northwest during the fourth week of January, and never looks back.  That is plausible and is even in my winter forecast which I put out in June.  I am not overly confident the Weeklies are correct there, but they could be.  I tend to think the same pattern (cold builds in the Mountain West and spreads eastward) is the base pattern w/ a standing SER in the SE during the interludes.

I'm with you on all you mention. I think the weeklies may be at err with the end of Jan. onward, particularly if the Nina continues weakening. The MJO I would think would be more aggressive and assertive in cold phases then.

The debate over the -NAO and whether it produced or didn't is a matter of opinion, I guess. I'll say that it did as far as squelching what would have a very mild month into basically an average one Temp wise by months end.

    Otoh, to say it wasn't far from bringing what a typical -NAO of that magnitude does is just wrong as well. I can bring up plenty of examples going way back to the 60's and even with a crap Pacific and western trough we saw systems bring snow in a west to east fashion. However, if you look at those years you find a formidable "50-50" in place. 

    Some say the Alaskan Block caused the -NAO to not produce in the SE. I don't see nor get that, tbh.?...

   As John noted, the snowmageddon Feb.2015 was all Pac driven. One thing of interest regarding that period however, was the parade of LP's that just trained over the area around Newfoundland. They essentially acted like a "50-50"(more a 60-50) in that they helped funnel arctic air along with the tall western Ridge south into the Eastern US instead of the +NAO wrapping it around and under eastward. 

  That is a rare pattern but, one heck of a cold and snow Producer. So, no you don't have to have a -NAO to get plenty of snow but, it can make it easier and more likely if other parameters line up with it.

2 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

But I guess we didn’t have much snow this December in the Southeast because we didn’t have much help from the Pacific, Carvers? Maybe that could be the case or the HB block(-NAO) is behaving differently than your typical -NAO. If it behaved like a traditional -NAO we would have had a shot at several December snows. An example of the HB block being a good thing(as itryatgolf70 is saying) was December and January of 2010 when we had the HB block much more “CLOSED OFF” and also perhaps had help from back west, allowing cold air to actually be blocked by the -NAO(Hudson Bay) block. It does seem like the -NAO has behaved a little different this year in December 2022 than your typical one that blocks cold air over the south and east, forcing big southern snow and overrunning. It’s almost like the block over the HB region this year wasn’t fully autonomous but had a connection with the SER(as golf man was saying), instead of there being a massive 50/50 low, as in 2010. This year’s NAO does seem like it has created zonal flow like Carvers was saying but traditionally is pretty good for significant snow in the south when it’s not trying to connect with the SE ridge or hurt by the pacific pattern, as it was this year. 

Actually, a key missing component this year has been the 50-50 Low. Without it the strong -NAO linked with the SER and resulted in a full latt. Eastern Ridge at times. 

37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I would have never thought you missed out on the 3 Jan events in 1984. I know Tazewell got less snow from each but that they had snow each time out. I think 1 inch in the Anafrontal, and 2 inches the 16th and 6.5 the 18th. 

February was warm overall but the 4 or 5 cold days were extremely cold with a big snow here. 

 

1989 is sort of similar to this time frame as well. Except 1989 had much more cold in December with multiple cold shots. 

That's something I've noticed over the years. We don't often have a single extreme cold shot. If we get an extreme cold shot, which to me us generally days where the high is low 20s or colder and the low is around 0 or less, we tend to get multiple shots of it. 

The last two years were snowy here but lacked any extreme cold imby. I know the western areas got extreme in 2021. 

In 1989 it happened but close together. We had sub zero lows. Went back to near 40 two days later and then another, bigger cold blast happened and extreme cold returned a week after the first. 

So I believe there is a good chance extreme cold returns at some point in winter. 

Yeah, apparently they teterred out as they moved east. Each of those smaller ones were less than an inch here. 

      Yeah, hopefully, we get an extended stretch of cold that has at least a couple decent systems to track through. Cold but not bitter would be great. 

You were more fortunate irt Snow in , 83-84. Only 1 really good snowfall in the Valley's up this way. That being the one on the January 18th. 6 inches. 

      Feb. was mild overall. Some days above 70. Several dustings and one 2-5" fluffy snowfall. March was rather cold but, once again most snow missed here. The 22nd one had alot of wind, thunder and lightning. It was snow/rain mixed below 2000 ft. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Robert, from WxSouth, had an interesting post on FB just a few minutes ago.

I'll check it out. Hadn't saw much from him in awhile. Robert always was good at pattern recognition. 

Just went out and noticed a light dusting on vehicle. Hard to tell looking out window as car is not in view and still have old snow on ground. So, don't know when it fell. 

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This model waffling reminds me of early December.  Modeling at 12z and 18z seemed to be a little more aggressive w/ both the timeline and intensity of the cold.  I just posted above(must have been at almost the exact same time you post this), the transition that the Euro control (notably WARM bias) sees from early Jan to the end of Jan.  What I am looking for is whether the eastern trough can begin establishing around the 5th w/ likely a cutter.  If it can hold, the dam may break and the PNA pops...and we hold a cold pattern for a bit.  If the ridge can hold around the 5th, then we may be kicking the can.  Good signs today.  We will see what tomorrow brings. With models swinging so wildly right now, I have to think more cold is on the way into the Lower 48.  Part of me thinks this is just going to be one of those winters that finds a way to stay cold.  Fingers crossed.  If that pattern holds, you would very likely see multiple bouts of snow.  Is it right?  Time will tell.

Exactly my thoughts. Going to be crucial what happens that first week. If can begins to be kicked and trough deepens out west, may be same old cycle. 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ditto @tnweathernut, no SPV split for me either!   

The 18z GFS speeds up the transition back to cold.  Instead of transitioning to cold between the 5th and 10th, it just flips cold(enough) on the 5th.  That is now within the 10 day window.

Hopefully it's right. Don't want to go through another kick the can 2.5-3 weeks mild. 

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's better than me! Just bitter cold. The clouds socked in and it stayed at 24 again today. My heating bill dollars to inches of snow ratio is going to be skewed badly after the last 4 days. 

Yeah, dread to see next electric bill. 

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

There was definitely something that enhanced the snow up the valley. At 3pm I looked at the radar and didn’t think anything again about it. By 5pm a friend told me the roads are getting rough around our house. I looked at the Radar again and couldn’t believe it. Definitely had something that caused more lift.


.

Yeah, apparently a slug of moisture came from somewhere . Makes me wonder if the Valley pulled some up it from the SW , sort of like when a warm nose will shoot up it ahead of a LP. 

Shafted up here. Saw couple small flakes around 7 PM 

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are a mixed bag.  The ensemble shows a window from Jan10-24th before the trough backs into the West for the foreseeable future.  Oddly, the Weeklies keep temps at normal or just below even after the trough digs into the west.  That tells me there is some variability in the pattern - meaning cold fronts push eastward at times.  Honestly, it is a classic La Niña progression - and I am glad to be seeing the last winter of that front loaded winter progression!

For real! Too bad we didnt get underwater volcanic activity in that area this fall..

Hopefully this thing holds together and brings the area a decent little event. WWA are up for western Kentucky for up to 2 Inches.

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t know if there will be snow…but have a cup of cheer

Cup of beer

Merry Christmas to all ! 

Merry Christmas to all

Made it to 12.2 for a high today after a low of -1.3. about 3/4" snow on the ground. 

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly.  Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. 

I edited my above post to "near" instead of in the COD. Thanks for the correction. 

Yeah, those SST'S in the ph 8 area are still pretty cold so, a factor in MJO progression. If further warming occurs there, the MJO may be more helpful the last half of Winter. 

16 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

All we need is a Canadian high, a ridge over the Rockies, and a 50/50 for a big snowstorm, high-latitude blocking/-EPO aren't necessary(though they obv help)

That 50-50 is more crucial than many realize. 

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I've managed to get above 0, up to 7 degrees now. Had about 1/2 inch of snow overnight.

Same here. 

2 hours ago, Runman292 said:

MRX isn't even mentioning the clipper in their latest AFD.

Noticed that and just a 20% chance of snowshowers Monday/Monday night.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times.  Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is.  I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place.  

Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West.  We will see if that holds.  If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8.

Agree. Yeah, most likely be a good indication irt the MJO.

42 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I've lived in the valley of east Tennessee since 1989, I cannot recall a daytime temp peaking at 8 degrees. My weather station has been fluctuating between 6 and 8 degrees all day. The coldest day time temp I can recall since we moved here when I was 10 years old is in the low to mid teens for daytime hours. My forecast high from MRX yesterday was a high of 16, not going to hit that. I suspect tonight may go negative air temp.

All that said my official high for the day is 45, just after midnight. Lol

Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk


 

This is the coldest afternoon here since Feb.'96 that I can recall. I did have recorded Climate Data back to the late 70's but lost some accidentally in a moving process and some with a computer crash. Ido recall afternoon readings in the single digits in Jan. 77, Jan 78, Jan. 82, 85 and 86, and Dec.89, Jan. 96. 

   Coldest Highs ever recorded, -4 Degrees Jan. '85 and '96. Coldest low, -27 Jan. '85 and -21 Feb. 96.

12 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

Imagine this will be quite the streamer event for Eastern Kentucky.

How much did you wind up with ? I've been looking at cams and Lexington got hammered. Just eyeballing, it looks like probably .5-6" there with 2 foot drifts