Daniel Boone

Lt Snow began here around 20 minutes ago. Mainly graupel but also some small flakes 1/8-1/4" dia. Temp is 38. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Hoping against hope to see some flakes but it looks like now even places like LeConte won't see much of anything.

Everything further North. Trajectory still looks to get southern extent of those heavier returns in KY later into SWVA/NE Tn . Unless they die off or Get pulled even further North and even miss this area. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

No idea if correct, but I thought that I would share!   LOL.

Glad you did and great analysis as usual man. 

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wow.  The 12z EPS is now depicting a fairly decent winter wx patter for the last five days of its run  which is the last four days of December and NYD.  Here is the last 5 day 500 map and the very last day of that run.  That will work.  We are not looking at Weeklies now.  Oddly, this is what the original weeklies sort of had.  Textbook Nino BN heights over the SE.  Maybe it is a bit overdone, but we are now entering the timeframe when the EPS is respectable - meaning no shoulder season.  That would be quite cold under those BN heights.  The GEFS is less impressed but is a similar setup.  But man, that is impressive below.

 

Was just looking at that a little while ago. Probably has legs this time. Definitely a snow threat last week of the month. Too bad not a few days sooner for Christmas. 

27 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Even the HRRR has more than that. Actually the HRRR verbatim might have some thunder in convective bands late Monday.

I really wonder what it is (or isn't) seeing.

It's basically keeping what it has further North. Has the flow off Lake Michigan aimed toward Wva whereas other Models have it further South toward SEKY and the SW tiip of VA and on to the TN/NC Mountains. 

2 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours.  Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution.   It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible.  

For whatever reason the GFS somehow doesn't pickup basically any nwsf really. Just the disturbance mainly and that to the North.

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Happy hour of the 18z is winter. Is it right?  It is happy hour, but I just hope the 18z passes the bottle to the next run!

GFS basically says what nw flow event .  Hopefully it's wrong. 

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes!  High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas.  I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley.

 

 

this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through.

If the Hrrr hasn't been upgraded any it still has a bit of a warm bias in this area. So, will be a test to see if that still exists. 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

Yeah, that's why I mentioned there should be a semblance. I agree with you totally on the strength for sure brother. 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks to me like we are losing the Aleutian low (on the models) as we head toward New Years..

Yeah, may be a hiccup as it appears to totally dissolve any semblance in the NPAC for that matter. You'd think there'd be one somewhere.

5 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 
 

3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs

Right on about the 3k. It needs some adjustment irt that. It seems they overcompensated decreasing qpf output due to the regular Nam over forecasting amounts. Question is, why does that obviously show on the 3k but, not the 12 k ?.. Should on both. 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX afternoon disco...

On the backside of the Miller A low, lingering low level moisture
and northwest flow will bring light rain Sunday night through Monday
morning. The highest elevations mainly above 3500 feet will see a
changeover to light snow as temps drop. Lower elevations will stay
warm enough to keep rain as the precip type. By Monday afternoon, a
trough digging into the Ohio Valley will enhance POPs, mainly north
of I-40. As temps drop late Monday afternoon, a changeover to snow
or rain/snow mix is likely from the Central Tennessee Valley, Upper
Plateau counties, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. After sunset, POPs
decrease as the trough passes the region. Monday night, northwest
flow will continue the light snowfall for the higher elevations.
Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the
lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee
mountain foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. The higher
elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and SW Virginia, above
3500 feet, may see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.

 

We'll see if they up those projected totals in the morning if guidance increases amounts. They're going to be gunshy even moreso than usual particularly because of that last failed snowfall projection I think. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Snow hole is over Kingsport....the NAM run is legit.

I noticed that, lol. Dang, hopefully the systems strong enough to overcome the downslope enough to work out for there. 

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah,  I think Quebec is going to have to be our source for legit cold.  I just can't tell if LR modeling is smoothing out things to the point it just "looks" like a trough his off the West coast(and it is actually a storm rotating through) or what. However, the pattern seems much more progressive than a locked in trough in the eastern Pac.  That would be a very Nino pattern.  I do think the MJO is an issue and modeling not handling it well.  Also, that big block in central Canada is not easy to model.  I think when we get to weather patterns which have so few analogs, that disrupts modeling as I am sure some of the physics (even if it doesn't use analogs in original programming) probably has a biased towards analogs as programing would likely somewhere have analogs at its foundation - either programmers and/or root programming and/or other influences I can't see.  Even with long range seasonal modeling(Euro Weeklies) one can see the analog input w/ the snow input.  It rarely outpaces seasonal norms.

Yeah, agree. Enso is top ingest, Along with MJO and historical daily data of which would be the Analogue basically . Of course NWS and FAA Station data is also as far as precise Temperature output , a no brainer there, lol.. I , like you man, am sure there's more as well. 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone, has the persistent trough on the west coast ever actually materialized.  Maybe modeling is just seeing storms pinwheeling about the HB block?  However, I keep seeing it on modeling in the d10+, and then it doesn't show up as we get closer.  Is it feedback or modeling correcting the MJO as we get closer?  I can't tell, but it is wrecking havoc on LR modeling.  I think what we are actuating seeing are storms just rotating under the ridge in central Canada w/ AN heights between storms vs a static pattern where there is a trough or ridge parked somewhere and not moving.

Yeah, it sure looks like what you described is the case to me as well. Hopefully we get that retrogression of that ridge into western Canada.

 We can still work with a central ca ridge if we can get a constant flow of Lps moving up the eastern seaboard and pulling down CA from eastern Canada. That can work oddly enough with a +NAO. the C. Can. H pulling air from the Arctic in tandem with the + Nao pulling it, then insitu 50-50 from training Lps pulling that air into the Eastern US. Not likely to happen but, has and can. 

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


.

Yeah, agree. Main System moving up the Coast will be tough until further North where it draws in colder air. Maybe highest elevations of the Smokies and mid App chain can score from it as well. 

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

Eastern Canada has enough if pulled down by a strong enough system. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

If the 12z GFS is right, I think above 3500’ along the Apps might get hammered with the first system. My only issue and maybe someone can chime in here with more knowledge but could orographic lift suppress rate driven dynamic cooling?


.

Not where orographic lift cools enough for snow but, on lower the above freezing wind would melt dendrites quicker.  So, in the grand scheme , nothing really noteworthy. 

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is a troll, and a perpetual dick.

Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.

As far as a perpetual one , I don't know but, I'd venture to say he likes perpetual one's. 

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.

Man, wouldn't it be nice if that cold air up in the upper Midwest could get down here for that. Talk about a Snowstorm 

31 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

You meant 1033mb? That's pretty good hp regardless 

? That's what I put. Lol The last symbol is exclamation mark. Just noticed, yeah put priod in there. Good catch, lol

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling.  The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range.  Where it sets up is highly important.  If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

Yeah really. Forcing from one side to the other. 

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

Not a pessimist nor optimist but, a realist