Daniel Boone

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX afternoon disco...

On the backside of the Miller A low, lingering low level moisture
and northwest flow will bring light rain Sunday night through Monday
morning. The highest elevations mainly above 3500 feet will see a
changeover to light snow as temps drop. Lower elevations will stay
warm enough to keep rain as the precip type. By Monday afternoon, a
trough digging into the Ohio Valley will enhance POPs, mainly north
of I-40. As temps drop late Monday afternoon, a changeover to snow
or rain/snow mix is likely from the Central Tennessee Valley, Upper
Plateau counties, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. After sunset, POPs
decrease as the trough passes the region. Monday night, northwest
flow will continue the light snowfall for the higher elevations.
Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the
lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee
mountain foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. The higher
elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and SW Virginia, above
3500 feet, may see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.

 

We'll see if they up those projected totals in the morning if guidance increases amounts. They're going to be gunshy even moreso than usual particularly because of that last failed snowfall projection I think. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Snow hole is over Kingsport....the NAM run is legit.

I noticed that, lol. Dang, hopefully the systems strong enough to overcome the downslope enough to work out for there. 

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah,  I think Quebec is going to have to be our source for legit cold.  I just can't tell if LR modeling is smoothing out things to the point it just "looks" like a trough his off the West coast(and it is actually a storm rotating through) or what. However, the pattern seems much more progressive than a locked in trough in the eastern Pac.  That would be a very Nino pattern.  I do think the MJO is an issue and modeling not handling it well.  Also, that big block in central Canada is not easy to model.  I think when we get to weather patterns which have so few analogs, that disrupts modeling as I am sure some of the physics (even if it doesn't use analogs in original programming) probably has a biased towards analogs as programing would likely somewhere have analogs at its foundation - either programmers and/or root programming and/or other influences I can't see.  Even with long range seasonal modeling(Euro Weeklies) one can see the analog input w/ the snow input.  It rarely outpaces seasonal norms.

Yeah, agree. Enso is top ingest, Along with MJO and historical daily data of which would be the Analogue basically . Of course NWS and FAA Station data is also as far as precise Temperature output , a no brainer there, lol.. I , like you man, am sure there's more as well. 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone, has the persistent trough on the west coast ever actually materialized.  Maybe modeling is just seeing storms pinwheeling about the HB block?  However, I keep seeing it on modeling in the d10+, and then it doesn't show up as we get closer.  Is it feedback or modeling correcting the MJO as we get closer?  I can't tell, but it is wrecking havoc on LR modeling.  I think what we are actuating seeing are storms just rotating under the ridge in central Canada w/ AN heights between storms vs a static pattern where there is a trough or ridge parked somewhere and not moving.

Yeah, it sure looks like what you described is the case to me as well. Hopefully we get that retrogression of that ridge into western Canada.

 We can still work with a central ca ridge if we can get a constant flow of Lps moving up the eastern seaboard and pulling down CA from eastern Canada. That can work oddly enough with a +NAO. the C. Can. H pulling air from the Arctic in tandem with the + Nao pulling it, then insitu 50-50 from training Lps pulling that air into the Eastern US. Not likely to happen but, has and can. 

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


.

Yeah, agree. Main System moving up the Coast will be tough until further North where it draws in colder air. Maybe highest elevations of the Smokies and mid App chain can score from it as well. 

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

Eastern Canada has enough if pulled down by a strong enough system. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

If the 12z GFS is right, I think above 3500’ along the Apps might get hammered with the first system. My only issue and maybe someone can chime in here with more knowledge but could orographic lift suppress rate driven dynamic cooling?


.

Not where orographic lift cools enough for snow but, on lower the above freezing wind would melt dendrites quicker.  So, in the grand scheme , nothing really noteworthy. 

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is a troll, and a perpetual dick.

Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.

As far as a perpetual one , I don't know but, I'd venture to say he likes perpetual one's. 

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.

Man, wouldn't it be nice if that cold air up in the upper Midwest could get down here for that. Talk about a Snowstorm 

31 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

You meant 1033mb? That's pretty good hp regardless 

? That's what I put. Lol The last symbol is exclamation mark. Just noticed, yeah put priod in there. Good catch, lol

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling.  The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range.  Where it sets up is highly important.  If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

Yeah really. Forcing from one side to the other. 

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

Not a pessimist nor optimist but, a realist 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

Yeah, exactly. 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th.  It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal.  Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run.  Still there today.  That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think.   Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March.  Do I believe them?  Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences.  I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO?  Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases.  Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?

The JMA also has cold Jan-Mar. Of course that's been par for the course with it so, that's that but, with added support from other guidance maybe it's onto something.  Glaam going to be going extremely positive. That's typical Nino response right there and also as Larry Chuck noted in the main forum a cold SE signal. The intensity is whether general Nino cool south or a cold SE apparently irt the glaam. 

    The Coz may still be in his game as you mentioned. Dare to say, if guidance continues that way even JB may be looking better. A little late but, not denied maybe.  We've gotta give you credit here too Carver, you called the flip in mid January ans backloaded early on. If it's early Jan... Still a great call. I'm with on that now and think we still have back and forth mainly due to those SST's still supportive if MJO warm Ph passes. If those were cooler we'd be in big time business imo. 

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

Yeah, it would. Basically canonical Nino. Maybe someone will do the work and post a map. 

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job.  I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year.  It would start about the Greenville exit.  My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.  

Yeah, great Winter up here. Miller b/  miller A hybrids, Miller B transfer's. Wise set VA Seasonal Snowfall Record that Winter. 123.4". Still stands. 

9 hours ago, griteater said:

Dec 11 - Thoughts on the upcoming pattern with Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic focus...

Sure looking that way right now. Terrible for Winter wx enthusiasts. 

Cohen has an update on the PV stretching. Odd behavior if correct. 

36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

Yeah, remember flower bushes blooming in January, lol. Hopefully,the Strat will throw a good monkey wrench into that horrible pattern if that happens. Who knows, Strat may be messing with guidance now. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies now have a trough in the West to start January.  LOL.  Cosgrove mentioned a thaw was coming mid-January.  Aren't we going to have to go in the freezer first before we have a thaw?  LOL.  You all know that I like LC...but I did chuckle when I read that. I will say in LC's defense that he has been adamant that this winter would be better than the last, but that winter really wouldn't get going until late January...and I mean adamant. 

Coz is a bit uneasy as well now i think.

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That track on the 12z GFS should be an epic winter storm Dec-Feb but we can't get any cold air. I think we had a similar event in 2017-18ish. Whichever year it was that the gulf got snow storms and we couldn't even with a perfect track a few weeks later. 

Yep. Rather frustrating brother. I recall the monster storm in Feb 73. Clouds is all we got while Ga, SC and NC got hammered. Also, I remember the Deep South getting clocked then the next system would go north and we'd get rain. Happened a good bit in the early to mid 70's I recall. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Tagging onto Holston's great post(post of the year worthy) about the jet extension...the MA has a great discussion this afternoon about the same post.  I encourage everyone who isn't a met to read them(Holston's and the MA).  That extension originally would have led to a nice -EPO and +PNA.  What modeling missed was that it was going to almost hit an extreme level which caused the Aleutian low to become stronger, and it formed a massive GoA low which will cause the chinook.  Long story short, modeling is showing a retraction of that jet, and that should allow for a more typical Aleutian low placement/intensity, and consequently by early January, allow for BN heights in the SE(reference Brooklyn's post there...and paraphrased).   Some strong posters basically noted it was less of the normal can-kicking and mentioned that there were good reasons for this delay, but that it was only a delay of about a week.

Agree on Holstons Post. That's a Pin worthy if there ever was. 

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Remember this is only December 11th. Try to remain optimistic. Hopefully mother nature will give us our opportunity at cold and snow this winter but it definitely will be a while. 

Yeah, I know. Just a bit irritated over the stretch we've gone through I suppose. In my long life I've lived through good streaks and bad one's. Forecasted back before a host of Model's were available as well new research information. We've came a long way but, there's times not much better. So many variables, minute factors that morph and become major player's in a relatively short time. Monkey Wrenches is a good term for them. 

     Regardless of knowing these things, I always hated to fail in forecasting. I'm sure we all are pretty much that way.