Daniel Boone

25 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning.

It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian does the same. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1.

Good points John. I know the Nam and HRRR have a warm bias here. Remember 21-'22 Winter my seasonal was 29.7". If the HRRR had been right it would of been less than 10 !

1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12z icon

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If this thing turns out as modeled now, a big win for the Icon irt Medium range Models.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is a likely problem, and I believe this is why we are seeing SE jogs this winter.  It is like all of the model trends that we knew for 15 years have been reversed.   Modeling has been well northwest of where it should have been - almost like a severe Nina bias.   It can even be seen in LR modeling.

Yeah, makes sense. Glad you thought of it. Good catch man. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

GFS and CMC at 12z build a glacier over the forum area.  

Shades of '58.

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nino climatology favors a more coastal track.  I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that.  I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina.  The Piedmont isn't out of it.

We do know each occurrence is ingested into the Model's. So, 3 Year's of Nina's.. probably so . 

58 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP at the end of it's run.

 

That pretty much shows the print of the higher ratio cold not getting across the Plateau. Even if same amount of QPF falls aa snow there's of course less accs east of Plateau. Hopefully the colder air makes it in over. 

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE took a jump Southeast and is more in-line with the RGEM. The NAM family seems to be in the NW camp by itself now.

Dam* Nam ! 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

ICON keeps things pretty steady, it may be wrong but it's remarkably consistent.

Yeah, this could turn out to gain it some respect if ir were to be right. 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Literally gone… poof 

MJO may be influencing the Pattern. 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

White Christmas cancel

Looks like a pretty good forecast. I'd bet on it. 

4 minutes ago, Hillbilly said:

Based on my experience following MRX, when an event is this far out; they find the model that provides the least amount of snow and go with it in their communications with the public and that usually works out well for them, time will tell...

They've told me before that they use the NBM Output. 

Apparently, KMRX Evening Shift buys the 12z Euro Outlook. Say's only lt wintry precip expected Monday and Tuesday. 

The lower Snow Totals in the Valley are quite possibly due to the average difference in occurences ingested into the Model's. I.e,. say, Kingsport got 1 inch the last 3 Snowfalls while Knoxville got 2 , the Models over time will show Knoxville getting more in their output.  Of course, if any wind is forecast, downsloping will be as well. The City to City Avgs may well be factored in now . That I don't know. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I've still got several papers from 1996! The "missing" and under reported snowfall amounts from that storm are legendary. To me, it ranks alongside the Blizzard of 1993 for local impacts. It was much worse than the blizzard on a state wide scale because it was a major winter storm for everyone. The Blizzard of '93 really cut off to a normal event beyond about Cookeville. 

 

That report is waaaaaaaay off here. The 911 director at that time who submitted those reports to papers, quite literally didn't understand how to measure things. The same person reported that 10 inches fell during the Blizzard of 1993. Snowfall totals here were 16-18 inches. 16-20+ in Anderson and Union. 

Same goes for here John. They listed Pennington gap with just 8 inches for the Jan. '96 Storm. I lived in downtown Pennington then and measured 13 inches while parts of the corporate limits had up to 16" and elevated areas of the County 18-24" with more mountain tops.

      The Feb. Storm produced 10" in downtown Pennington gap. I think that one is missing in the " official" Records along with several other Snowfalls that Winter. 

     I totalled 52" in downtown Pennington for the Season. 

31 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

18z gfs says what storm lol.

Not surprising, really. We get several cutter's in a row and finally get everything to suppress south enough and then all storms have exhausted. Figures. Not saying that'll be the case but, wouldn't be surprised. 

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I had to go look it up.  I read the article on WxBell about it earlier today, but there is the snow map I found....Interestingly, I think it came right on the heels of a cutter that hit Chicago w/ a big snowstorm.

 

Yeah, Chicago's big Blizzard back then . Over 20" there. 

37 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks

Does the coonskin cap get wet and stinky in all this rain?

Wasn't meaning anything wrong toward you Howard. 

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues.

Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. 

25 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Priceless. 

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started .

at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55?so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

Check the UKIE out... 

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS.

What a nightmare ! 

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE is full western trough/se ridge and we stay warm dry over most of the state. It and the Euro often have similar outcomes as they likely have some common dna. We will see if the Euro is more like it soon. 

If right, MJO ruling the Roost. 

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

That weird lollipop keeps popping up over Knox, Blount and Sevier Co. Kinda weird… it’s not every run but it’s been there about 50% of the time. Could this be some kind of backing or damming with the anafrontal moisture up against the GSM?


.

Model's have ingested data from previous similar situations. Could be those occurences produced more in that area, ie., Christmas 2020. That would reflect from the Model's output. 

A light dusting here. All the bands missed here last night so just a couple snshwrs and flurries.