Daniel Boone

1.51" here today. 

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wish there were an exclamatory reaction emoji! I mean this is by a large margin the biggest weakening on the Euro Weeklies from one day to the next since I started following this on a daily basis. Just two days ago (11/19 run) the ens mean was delayed til 12/25 to go below climo, which was vs ~12/1 on the 11/1 run. I mean major can kicking! Yesterday it moved from 12/25 back to 12/19 a pretty significant weakening on its own. But today takes the cake with it moving from 12/19 to 12/5! The ens mean gets to as low as 21 m/s vs high 20s to 30 the last few runs. The implied chance for an actual major SSW just shot up from under 5% two runs ago to the 15-20% region today.

Saw Cohens update on Twitter today and he was ecstatic about the projected warming.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific.  Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter.  We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region).  Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read.  The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.  

Exactly. 

40 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

18z gfs has multiple frozen precip chances.

Definitely think the El Nino is gonna take over soon.

Yeah, it's definitely taking over quickly now. 

25 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Providing there is enough cold air to work with. Always tricky in our area

Yeah, that's always a concern particularly in strong Ninos. Higher elevations less so. The super Nino's of 82-83 and 97-98 produced a decent amount of Snow in East Tenn/ SWVA. 82-83 Seasonal Totals were above average in many locations ( that was in relation to the higher normals back then). 97-98 featured a 2 crippling Snowstorms. The Late January one dumped 10-16" in the Tri- Cities. Over 3 feet in portions of Wise and Russell County VA. The early February one dumped 1-2 feet in portions of SEKY and the Central and northern Plateau in Tennessee. Seasonal Totals ranged from below normal in some Valley locations to above in elevated areas. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I've been reading in the other forums is that the consensus is around the holidays would be our next best opportunity at colder and maybe stormier weather. That's over a month away. Sometimes patterns repeat themselves. Don't guarantee anything. I personally don't like niños over moderate intensity but imo of course. Also, icestorms are significantly reduced in niños, which is good. Mainly bowling ball or ULL are favored if enough cold air is there. 

Yeah, I saw that too. Hopefully, we'll get lucky this go around. I agree on the strength of Nino's. I've always preferred weak . However, Moderate is usually good snow wise particularly in the eastern Valley providing it's not east based. The location of the forcing is really the main thing. Even strong as long as it's central centered can still work. Basin wide like this one will probably be back and forth until weakening come February and March. Strong blocking along with mjo cold phases can make for some decent chances for us before then. I will say, somewhere, at some point, within the Ohio/Tenn Valley areas will get dumped on as the STJ will be moisture laden. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Get the euro on board, then it's more believable. 

Problem with Euro is it does have a warm bias and the bigger thing, imo, is it's defect of holding energy back in the SW.  That changes the whole outcome many times in at range with it. I've not looked today but, am guessing it is doing that and therefore the trough is further west in response to that or just shunted from dropping on down in the East in response. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

We could use your prayers… my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer this week. Do not have all the info just yet but as of now the outlook is positive. Feel terrible for her. She just completely recovered from the brain tumor she had removed 2 years ago. God has been there and he’s not leaving us. Keep us in your prayers. Thanks guys!!!!


.

So sorry to hear of that brother.  Praying for you and her and the loved one's . 

Models are still not far from showing a pattern that could produce a legitimate Snowstorm. Either overrunning or System oriented. Canadian flirts with it but, weakens and shears it to a mainly light event. 18z GFS takes a significant Snowfall up the Ohio Valley. A few rather minor adjustments could do the trick. 

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now.  

Yeah, see that. I think basically Eric thinks the Eastern area will warm to that level. Even if it did, it wouldn't still be just " East based" as he says 

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface. 

As you know, Eric Webb , snowman 19 begs to differ saying it's going to East based. Eric gave his reasons. Hopefully ur right Chuck. If warming does propagate eastward per Webb's reasoning, I still can't see how you'd get East based. Basin wide, possibly. 

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter's only 10 days away!

Exactly. 

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8.  TIFWIW

Yeah, know what ur saying with the fwiw, lol. Seems just as things are looking like they're going to pan out something throws a monkey wrench and shatters everything. That SW pullback tucked under Trough that was a thorn last year and that we feared as a possible occurrence again seems to want to happen again and pump a SE Ridge at times. Hopefully, it won't be deep and can be countered with upstream Blocking. 

   Rooting for the Canadian . 

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa  than 1950.  1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State.

 

The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November.  Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.

Thanks buddy ! Knew you'd know. I had 51 for 52. 

      Great information!!! 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Wouldnt surprise me if the models get even colder post Thanksgiving,this was yesterday in East Asia,maybe we can get more moisture with a stronger CF that kicks in with a stronger STJ than the models are showing now for some thunderstorms,of course we need rain with thunderstorms or that could promote more wild fires..lol.Man we need some rain

Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm.  Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". 

     The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 .

John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John.... 

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame.  Euro has the same set-up.  No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...

Yeah. Hopefully it pans out for us Winter weather lover's. I'm a bit skeptical as tropical forcing from the STJ appears to be going from almost non-existent to full blown heavy duty all at once on some guidance. That may shunt any deep arctic air push. However, with that much blocking, alk to Grelnd. It may . Or if a strong System rides along that Jet and wraps and pulls that air down. 

    Either way, we'd e looking at high chances of frozen precip. 

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit?  Again, I don't think that is right, but man...

Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes. 

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There was a person about 2 miles SE of me trying to burn a big pile of brush Thursday and there's another guy trying to clear several acres to my NW who has ongoing smoldering fires. There's probably a hundred yards between those fires and the woods, but TBH there is a non 0 chance that either could hop to the woods and if that happens I'm screwed. At least the guy with the several acres is trying to control his brushpiles, but the guy to my SE just started burning his brush Thursday. 

I still see folks throwing cigarettes out the window in highway 62 between Oliver Springs and Wartburg. I guess its the typical "well my house isn't on fire so it doesn't concern me" crowd. 

We had a pretty good rain for like 5 minutes yesterday evening, I could even hear it in the house. 

What in the world happened to this El-Nino pattern early this fall? Up through maybe mid August it seemed like we were going to to have a pretty wet fall. There were some days it just rained and rained and then *poof* it evaporated. Some of the driest fall records we are breaking in some locations go back to the late 1800s. 

GFS for the qpf win this morning:

 

Ensembles see at least and inch to be likely by next week, but we'll see if that actually pans out. 

 

 

Wound up with .30" here. I see area's just north of here did well. Less to the south.  Multiple fire's here in Lee County as well. Alot of acreage has been burned. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit.  The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles.  I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.

Yeah, saw that after posting that. I'm still a bit gun-shy. 18z ensembles look good for last week of November. If they pan out I will lean toward a decent Winter. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Early winter season model war:

12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up)

Vastly different after d8......

Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter.  That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn. 

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nice to see more rain and snow coming for me. Driest 12-month period for any time frame, i.e. Nov-Oct, Jan-Dec, May-Apr, etc back to 1892 is around 3.5-4.0 inches here. We were flirting with those record dry periods in the absence of rain in July. Starting to reverse now. It's almost like the subtropical jet is responding to an El Nino or something.

Severe Drought in this neck of the woods. Looks to finally start getting chipped away. 

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been ignoring Webber and Roundy since it became apparent to me that they weren't interested in anything other than perpetuating their own agendas....probably about August or so. They both look irresponsible,  obstinate and silly. 

For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure. 

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

Maybe he just identifies as a Meteorologist. Sure beginning to look that way. 

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20

AO goes negative 11/24

Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range.

Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away.. 

Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day. 

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Big ridge moves in after day 10.

 

As we know, those change as often as a 20 yo woman getting ready for a night on the Town. 

     Odds favor a warmup around mid December. If you go total Nino = warm December then you're going to swear by runs like that one and declare it. Colder Nino December's generally had a mild prelude as well but, went back cold.