Daniel Boone

18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

RGEM scored during the ice event but the Euro who had been the outler, adjusted a couple of days before. It will be interesting to see who scores. Very rare to see the Euro this locked in for several days to end up whiffing.


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Yeah. Too bad Euro is not what it once was.

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SPV looks like it will be annihilated by the end of the month. 

 

 

Those gifs are starting about hr 90, so it's not all that far out there now. Not sure the exact day that we will see a SSW, but I think one will be official in the next 10 - 15 days. 

Here is the 3D vortex:

Now we wait and see how this will play out by the first week of March or so. I don't necessarily think we will see impacts here by then, but I suspect there will be some impact on the N. Hemisphere's pattern by then. 

 

For once in a long time, the MJO signal wants to fly through the warm phases on the Euro and GEFS suites:

 

Looks to me like it is trying to make it fully into the western Pac in 7 - 10 days. I would almost be willing to say we have a shot at a storm in 20 - 25 days based on that progression, and how the pattern has been playing out since Fall, so March 3 - 8? How the literal fallout from the SPV lands could impact this progression constructively or destructively though IMO. 

For example, let's look at the Feb 2018 SSWE that occurred around the same time this one will. Radar illustrates the pattern's evolution from progressive to blocky, specifically a -NAO. 

 

Radar loop starting Feb 24, 2018:

 

SE ridge city. Boundary primarily over the TN and OH Valleys. 

 

Around the 28th, things start to change:

The boundary is still in relatively the same area at first, but after the first wave rides it, notice how that storm kind of gets stuck over New England. After that instead of everything moving from the TX panhandle to the OH valley, you see most shortwaves running from the Midwest to either East TN or a bit north of us in the Mid Atlantic. That would be an NAO. 

From Feb 20 to March 1st the N. American H5 pattern goes from this:

 

to this:

 

Looks like the Pacific pattern was not so great that year (imagine that), but the NAO at least offset that a bit. This year we have had a pretty regular window of a week or so each month where the Pacific gets a bit better. Can we time that up with an -NAO like we did in December? Will shorter wave lengths help us this time around? 

I think we want to start to look for some sort of a jet extension. Right now it is really retracted. In the left exit region of the Pac jet, you usually get a trough. For now that has been in the far western Aleutians or Kamchatka:

 

 

Ideally we want the jet extended to around Hawaii, so we get a semi permanent trough over the central Aleutians or Bering sea and that ever popular trough just east of Hawaii and ridging into the EPO and PNA regions. 

Look for reliable people on twitter to start talking about an east Asia mountain torques. I forget which one we want, but one will give us a jet extension. We just don't want the jet to extend too far lol. If it is all the way across the Pac like it was in early January that is more of a super El Nino pattern that floods the CONUS with Pacific air and you get the Central Canada Hudsons Bay ridge downstream of a mean trough over AK and western Canada, instead of -NAO type ridging. 

 

Excellent analysis ! Nothing to add to that. 

20 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

It wasn't a whole lot. Think around an inch or two in most of the valley. Still, a better solution than the rest of modeling at this point. 

Yeah, hi-res euro showing decent amounts northern valley and plateau.

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Yep WSW are up for Asheville with 4 to 10 but when you go to the snow map it shows Buncombe County .9 inches of snow where as before this it was 2.7 inches of snow.  Shows Waynesville 3.2 and Brevard 2.3, that doesn't make sense.  

That's the blend of models output.

1 hour ago, snowbird1230 said:

They issue a warning followed with this crap

They may be doing what KMRX does and display the NBM output.

47 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yall can bail anytime yall want to but im still optimistic about everything especially for us mountain folk.  The foothills is a different story and may I remind you the NAM has had issues recently with snowfall and with accumulations. 

Good post . Spot on. The Nam last I knew still has a warm bias. Don't think it was ever corrected. Also, I think your location and 2500+ ele should do fine.

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

NAM warmer so far at 18Z. I did see Euro however and it did look pretty darn good. 

hmm., faster arrival time before daytime heating should make for colder. tht's what looked like is what caused models to back off on snowfall; the later arrival of precip till Sunday afternoon.

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

NAM can't make up it's mind. Moving in precip much quicker than 12Z did. Don't know if it will make any difference for those that are on the fence with temps and time of day etc..

Actually, it should help. 

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Where's the facebook meteorologist who types in all CAPS @Greyhound I trust that person's forecasts the most. 

Or that famous dyslexic hothead one, lol

This Winter has been basically a hybrid strong Nina/Nino one. 

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

RGEM is king. 

Yeah' should of adhered to it even though it has been showing what we didn't want to see irt snow.  It has been the best overall SRM for this area the last 3 Winter's.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

90-91 was a horrific winter in swva. Got cold in March but before that 

Yeah, remember it well. Very mild Winter. Spring came , along with several high ele. snowfalls thru mid April.

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

I'll give Morristown this......................... 9 times out of 10 they will be right about snowfall in our region when playing it down.  We (snow lovers) just have to hope this is a 1 of 10 situation.

They are generally right for the cental/ Southern Valley and have gotten some better for northern sections. Spotter reports are few from SWVA so, that is one reason for being less accurate for northern zones but, they have increased somewhat and seems to be helping.

    KMRX uses solely NBM so, take that for what it is i. e, if a superior model such as the EURO once was showed 12" snowfall for the entire Valley but, the rest showed 1-4" the NBM Output would be abysmal regardless of the best models output. No specific Model is weighted more. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX will almost always ride with the NWS blend and IMO it is typically 50-75% underdone compared to all of the other mods. Which is confusing considering it’s a blend. Now it’s going to be right or close most of the time because of climatology but when we do get a event that’s more than 5”, it usually busts big time.


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Yeah, that is what they do. NBM all the way. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies.

Yeah, good reason for that with the SSW effects coinciding with what looks to be other parameters lining up. Cross Polar Flow looks to be in the picture as well. So, providing something doesn't throw a monkey wrench late Feb/ to mid March may be our most wintry period of this lackluster Winter. 

      The West has had a wall to wall, trifecta one. Been a long time since we've had that. Thinking 2009-10 or maybe 2010-11 was last one. 

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Worst of both el nino and la nina. 

This may be why post-nina neutral winters are the worst for us in snowfall. As the nina decays, the atmosphere starts acting more like a nino out west but the SER stays.

A good point. I've been thinking along the same lines. Makes sense actually. It has been acting like a hybrid Strong Nina/Nino.

20 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX isn’t impressed


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I'm shocked, lol

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

QPF is less on the Canadian so this isn’t a more rain less snow unless I’m looking at it wrong.


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CMC looks a bit fouled in it's precip output. This thing should be juiced, imo . Strong Gulf RH injection, UL energy etc.. really can't see where it could be getting a decrease in Precip output.??.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing.  Modeling is all over the place.  Best of luck to the overnight crew.  

Yeah, probably another mirage for us. Story of this Winter. 

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too.  It sure is stubborn.  Still by far the outlier.

Hopefully, this time the wretched thing won't score a Coup. I can see how that solution is possible, however. Saw it with the March 2009 System, although it was basically a strong Clipper traveling the Jet Trough SE through Arkansas, West Tn and across Alabama, Georgia then curving North grazing far Eastern TN and slamming Carolina's and Wytheville VA eastward. We were in that void area in the Trough. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I don't recall finding anything special about phase 4-5 over other phases for NC. But what I can tell you about MJO tendencies regards RDU 6"+ snows (and by extension a good number of major SE winter storms in general including at ATL) and is this:  low amp (within COD...most of them) to moderately low amplitude (between 1 and 1.5) was present for an amazing 93% of the big RDU storms since the daily MJO index started (13 of 14)! Only 1/17-18/2018 had an amplitude higher than 1.5 and it just happened to be in phase 4. It had an amp of 1.9. So, even that wasn't a high (2+) amp.

 So, I can say that none of RDU's fourteen 6"+ snows since the MJO started getting tracked daily had a high amplitude MJO (2+). The odds of any DJFM day having an amp of 2+ are 20%. So, the expectation if there were no tendency based on that would be for three of those fourteen 6"+ snows to have an amp of 2+. Having no high amp together with the fact that most of the 14 were when the MJO was within the circle tell me that the lower the amplitude the better the odds of a big snow in RDU and vicinity.

Edit: Aside: Every ATL major IP or ZR since 1979 was within the circle entirely (all but one) or partially (one that was on two calendar days)! More evidence that being either inside or barely outside the circle is best for major wintry precip chances.

Edit #2: The MJO forecasts have a 1.0 to 1.50 amp (low end moderate) for Feb 12th, which is the day with the highest threat for snow. So, although not ideal since it isn't inside the circle, it is not bad either since it isn't too far outside.

Great work as usual Larry !!! 

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Honestly, the presentation at 500 on numerous modeling has all the earmarks of a southern apps tree snapper.  

Yep, it sure does. Outages incoming.

Dp's ahead of the system may be of help in area's where temps are well above 0c as evaporational cooling would drop t's rapidly, especially if precip is heavy enough. So, if say, the Nam's correct in it's depiction and 40's are in E.Tenn. that may very well take care of that.We've all witnessed that.

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Here is 18z euro vs gfs. Can see the differences here with the NE shortwave etc. make of it what you will


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Yeah, Euro could allow a cut further west with that depiction.

Just now, Jebman said:

epic, epic sig

Cheer it on Jeb !!!