Daniel Boone

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is some can kicking of the cold...I just haven't posted in a bit.  It is more like weeks 2-4 of Feb as the MJO is gonna get toasty after the 22nd.  We were gonna have to pay that toll at some point.  It is possible that we may have a cold shot around the 30th, warm-up, and then hit the cold skids during the second week of Feb.  I do urge a bit of caution to new posters (not you, Shawn).  Originally, Jan 10-20th looked very warm.  That can got kicked about ten days.  So, any kind of strong cutter or storm is gonna bring down a lot of cold air, even during what looks like a warm-up timeframe.  The first week or two of March could be cold but the jury is still out.  This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96 which had a big storm, a warm-up, and then got cold again.  I am maybe a little less confident that Feb is gonna be cold than I was a few weeks ago, but still reasonably confident.

Yeah, I'm a bit concerned about February as well as the MJO has me skiddish. It may set off that Firehose into Canada again. Probably not but, possible. IF it were to, would probably delay cold till later in February. Hopefully, that won't happen. Otoh, maybe the warm phases get knocked off kilter by other Drivers as happened in some Winter's of yore. 

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

6" for the storm so far.

Expect 8-10 brother. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I got the goose feathers and it stopped for about 10 minutes then picked back up. 

That's what I was thinking, maybe some larger flakes with those Shower's. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sitting at about 5.25" of snow.  I hate it for the rest of the TRI folks who were dealing with snow/rain issues.  Probably will come close to 6" of snow if these last bands work out.

6" here. Suddenly stopped as broken area coming through. Some of those showers with the batch coming off eastern plateau are heavy and may put down a quick inch or two. I expect you to get 8-10 at least Carver. 

Just now, Dsty2001 said:

Shouldn't heavier rates also help bring cooler air down as well?

Yeah, it does. 

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For several days, the NAM busted badly in the eastern valley as it didn't have any snow east of the Plateau.  Globals did much better over here.  The final run of the GFS before the event is probably going to verify for the most part with the exception of the foothills which mostmodels basically failed w/ until the last minute..  The Canadian sniffed out the problems in the eastern foothills first.  Once the NAM came on board yesterday, it also had it.  The HRRR also had it to some extent when it came into range.  It is also worth pointing out that the NAM doing well in middle and west TN while not doing well here is easily explainable.  It was closer in time to the event and those areas got cold quickly(better ratios).  On this end, we were still several hours behind from a modeling standpoint...and it overdid accums on the Plateau and Cumberlands which was feedback.  I do think the NC lee side low caused it problems.  Once it lost that feedback(and we got closer in time), it did much better. It didn't dial-in here until about 12-16 hours to go.   The other problem is that as the system backed and slowed, the NAM tended to feedback.  The ICON is probably gonna be the big winner in all of this statewide, and that is probably a shock to most - me for sure.   The 3k NAM was particularly good.  The 12k NAM was terrible.  The RAP and HRRR have been really good as well.  I don't like the RAP, but it has done decently this go around.  

As MRX noted, no model had the warm air pushing to I-81 in NE TN.....personally, I think the front stalled at dawn at the Plateau and then daytime temps caused issues.  The front stalling on the Plateau is not unusual.  As Tellico noted the other day, Knoxville has a nice pathway for cold air from the Plateau.  Chattanooga and TRI do not.   The big red flag was when temps in NE TN yesterday beat forecast highs by 8 degrees.  That produced a lot of warm air to scour as we got cloudy at dark, and warm air couldn't scour.  Then it go banked against the Apps this AM.

The NAM itself is I think a false positive.  It got some things right, but for the wrong reason IMO.  It got incorrectly amped and missed the track, but its snow totals worked out.  Why?  The cold air moved aggressively into middle and west TN and allowed rates to be crazy good.  I have roughy 4" of snow right now.  My ratio might be 8:1.  If it was colder, I would likely have double that.  So, whichever model moved the cold in most aggressively is correct...and I don't which one that is....probably the RGEM? The other thing is that the over-amping of the NAM gave it some semblance of expanding the precip shield.  Its precip shield was juiced due to feedback and had a bad track in the East - plenty of snow fell east of the Apps which it didn't have.  In reality, that precip shield was going to fill in as the rush of cold air squeezed every drop of moisture out of the air - it was impressive.  The entry point of heavy precip was decently modeled and didn't change much.  

Still looking through some of the reports from middle and west TN which are incredibly helpful.  I think the main bust(and let's be honest, nobody cares if a model busts and they get more snow than shown), is the foothills...and that may take some time to figure out.  

Excellent post man ! I agree on your reasoning on all points. We were fortunate here in that we were colder than TRI and Ratios better but, rates have been light for the most part as flakes have been small. Portions of the County have been experiencing larger flakes, generally near mountains. I currently have about 4.5 inches. 

4" now with moderate Snow. 26 F. 

One more... 

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Temp around 28 but the DP is 25. That’s should keep my temp from going up and keep me all snow right?


.

I think you and my area will stay snow but will probably crack 30-31 for a High then start falling. 

A little over 3" here with steady lt Snow falling. 

All jokes aside, probably a coding issue causing that there Carver. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

On a separate note, there has got to be something off with a station(or programing issue) just to the west of Knoxville.  It had 22" of snow and 1.0" of water, and nothing the same around it.  It is very visible on the 3K NAM.  Anyone know how long that has been an issue? @Daniel Boone, you might be the person to know this....

Or that might be the elk in @Holston_River_Rambler's neighborhood.  

It has to be the Elk ! 

My Stations are KVAJONES4, KVAJONES1 and COOP DW6569.

28.5 here in Jonesville VA. 

50 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

At least we know our weather stations are calibrated, I'm right there with you.

Also, LOL at the ads!

Those ads drew my attention away, lol

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

MRX upped their totals, would post the map but it's blurry on my phone

Yeah, basically 6-8" Knoxville north and 4-6 Johnson City east. 

25 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning.

It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian does the same. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1.

Good points John. I know the Nam and HRRR have a warm bias here. Remember 21-'22 Winter my seasonal was 29.7". If the HRRR had been right it would of been less than 10 !

1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12z icon

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If this thing turns out as modeled now, a big win for the Icon irt Medium range Models.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is a likely problem, and I believe this is why we are seeing SE jogs this winter.  It is like all of the model trends that we knew for 15 years have been reversed.   Modeling has been well northwest of where it should have been - almost like a severe Nina bias.   It can even be seen in LR modeling.

Yeah, makes sense. Glad you thought of it. Good catch man. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

GFS and CMC at 12z build a glacier over the forum area.  

Shades of '58.

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nino climatology favors a more coastal track.  I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that.  I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina.  The Piedmont isn't out of it.

We do know each occurrence is ingested into the Model's. So, 3 Year's of Nina's.. probably so . 

58 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP at the end of it's run.

 

That pretty much shows the print of the higher ratio cold not getting across the Plateau. Even if same amount of QPF falls aa snow there's of course less accs east of Plateau. Hopefully the colder air makes it in over. 

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE took a jump Southeast and is more in-line with the RGEM. The NAM family seems to be in the NW camp by itself now.

Dam* Nam !