Daniel Boone

1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

Saw this article on CNN about the difference in snowfall compared to 50 years ago. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html

CNN.. I don't know whether to believe it or not then. Lol

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That’s my read of what he is talking about also but I disagree with his implied conclusion.   sometimes that fact matters more/less.  If we were in a hostile La Niña pattern an “in situ” more locally induced -nao would be less likely to help or persist. It would be quickly destructively interfered with. But in a nino these in situ naos can be repetitive and productive because the long wave pattern can constructively enhance them. 
 

It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state. 

In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree.  As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO.  I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain.  But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here.  One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge.  I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S.  An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.  

In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

He's mentioned this before but he usually references the transient NATL thumb, this is definitely not the transient thumb where you briefly for 2-3 days get positive heights over Greenland.  Its really the only reason we do not go full blown epic torch 12/1-12/3 with that western pattern.  Without that Greenland ridging we'd have a massive SER with highs in the 60s probably on those 3 days

He couldn't be wrong. How dare you question dt the great. The self professed best. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

Hopefully, that goa low will be further west. 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

We do have at least a month or so to get the final answer. But imho if you were being perfectly honest, you’d admit that todays 0.08 drops were not what you wanted to see/not helpful to chances of ever seeing a+2.4+ daily, even if they reduced the chance just modestly. To improve your quality as a poster, I’d hope to see more objectivity from you as opposed to you just sounding one sided all the time. It is like you never acknowledge that things can be going against your predictions. You’ve been great for this thread and the thread wouldn’t be the same without you. I never make fun of you. But I feel you’d be a better contributor if you’d at least better acknowledge when things go the other way. 

Yes, respect other's.. throwing weenies, lol, at those that's been in the business longer than you've been alive is just low imo. 

     He has some good discussion if like you said, would not be so one sided . 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.

Exactly. That's what's been the flaw with an otherwise advertised great pattern. Hopefully, that does correct and park where we want it. 

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

dude flip flopped so hard

Not a peep out of snowman 19. You suppose he doesn't like webber as much now.?. 

21 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is insistent that the west coast will continue to replenish water supplies. 6-10+ inches of rain for the northern 2/3rds of California and there been various runs of up to 215 inches of snowfall over the next two weeks from Mammoth to Tahoe ski areas. 

Unfortunately for us, storms crashing into Northern California to Washington means we are going to remain warm like we did last winter while the west got buried. 

Unless we can get strong blocking ala., '95-96. Although that was pac jet and polar jet driven, Systems tracked generally ESE before turning ENE after reaching the upper SE.. although , that I rather rare. It's possible the STJ will deter any chance of the -NAO and the SER hookup also . 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone and may God bless you all ! 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to mention that west coast trough won't be to Baja.

Yeah, really. Lol

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

That early December snapshot looks a lot like last December with a Greenland block and hostile Pacific. But hope we have a better chance at getting lucky due to an undercutting Nino STJ. If not in December then later in the season if we can hold the Greenland block. 
 

 

 

Yeah, the STJ may help mitigate the possibility of the-NAO/SER hookup. 

2 hours ago, bearman said:

Sighs of fun to come.  At least we can dream.  Snow flying up on the mountain tops of West Va. https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/boathouse-and-ballhooter-lift-live-cam

Snow shower's been reported in Smokies above 3000 ft late this afternoon. I'm sure High knob in Wise, Co, Va had some as well as Black Mountain Ky. 

1.51" here today. 

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wish there were an exclamatory reaction emoji! I mean this is by a large margin the biggest weakening on the Euro Weeklies from one day to the next since I started following this on a daily basis. Just two days ago (11/19 run) the ens mean was delayed til 12/25 to go below climo, which was vs ~12/1 on the 11/1 run. I mean major can kicking! Yesterday it moved from 12/25 back to 12/19 a pretty significant weakening on its own. But today takes the cake with it moving from 12/19 to 12/5! The ens mean gets to as low as 21 m/s vs high 20s to 30 the last few runs. The implied chance for an actual major SSW just shot up from under 5% two runs ago to the 15-20% region today.

Saw Cohens update on Twitter today and he was ecstatic about the projected warming.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific.  Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter.  We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region).  Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read.  The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.  

Exactly. 

40 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

18z gfs has multiple frozen precip chances.

Definitely think the El Nino is gonna take over soon.

Yeah, it's definitely taking over quickly now. 

25 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Providing there is enough cold air to work with. Always tricky in our area

Yeah, that's always a concern particularly in strong Ninos. Higher elevations less so. The super Nino's of 82-83 and 97-98 produced a decent amount of Snow in East Tenn/ SWVA. 82-83 Seasonal Totals were above average in many locations ( that was in relation to the higher normals back then). 97-98 featured a 2 crippling Snowstorms. The Late January one dumped 10-16" in the Tri- Cities. Over 3 feet in portions of Wise and Russell County VA. The early February one dumped 1-2 feet in portions of SEKY and the Central and northern Plateau in Tennessee. Seasonal Totals ranged from below normal in some Valley locations to above in elevated areas. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I've been reading in the other forums is that the consensus is around the holidays would be our next best opportunity at colder and maybe stormier weather. That's over a month away. Sometimes patterns repeat themselves. Don't guarantee anything. I personally don't like niños over moderate intensity but imo of course. Also, icestorms are significantly reduced in niños, which is good. Mainly bowling ball or ULL are favored if enough cold air is there. 

Yeah, I saw that too. Hopefully, we'll get lucky this go around. I agree on the strength of Nino's. I've always preferred weak . However, Moderate is usually good snow wise particularly in the eastern Valley providing it's not east based. The location of the forcing is really the main thing. Even strong as long as it's central centered can still work. Basin wide like this one will probably be back and forth until weakening come February and March. Strong blocking along with mjo cold phases can make for some decent chances for us before then. I will say, somewhere, at some point, within the Ohio/Tenn Valley areas will get dumped on as the STJ will be moisture laden. 

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Get the euro on board, then it's more believable. 

Problem with Euro is it does have a warm bias and the bigger thing, imo, is it's defect of holding energy back in the SW.  That changes the whole outcome many times in at range with it. I've not looked today but, am guessing it is doing that and therefore the trough is further west in response to that or just shunted from dropping on down in the East in response. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

We could use your prayers… my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer this week. Do not have all the info just yet but as of now the outlook is positive. Feel terrible for her. She just completely recovered from the brain tumor she had removed 2 years ago. God has been there and he’s not leaving us. Keep us in your prayers. Thanks guys!!!!


.

So sorry to hear of that brother.  Praying for you and her and the loved one's . 

Models are still not far from showing a pattern that could produce a legitimate Snowstorm. Either overrunning or System oriented. Canadian flirts with it but, weakens and shears it to a mainly light event. 18z GFS takes a significant Snowfall up the Ohio Valley. A few rather minor adjustments could do the trick. 

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now.  

Yeah, see that. I think basically Eric thinks the Eastern area will warm to that level. Even if it did, it wouldn't still be just " East based" as he says 

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface. 

As you know, Eric Webb , snowman 19 begs to differ saying it's going to East based. Eric gave his reasons. Hopefully ur right Chuck. If warming does propagate eastward per Webb's reasoning, I still can't see how you'd get East based. Basin wide, possibly. 

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter's only 10 days away!

Exactly.