Daniel Boone

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

Good work man ! 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…

Big difference in results with those 2 Winters too. February in particular. Feb. 2015 was spectacular. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off.

 

 

 

 

All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.

Yeah. Marginal Temps played a part as elevated area's got clocked on several occasions during the stronger Ninos, whereas lower eles would get mix or rain, therefore creating a greater than normal difference between the Valleys and the higher elevations. As far as western areas, Nino's tend to favor Eastern irt Snow, particularly when blocking is present, imo. 

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Great Job man ! 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

Exactly. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Webb isn’t telling us what a good number of us already know regarding moderate+ El Niño climo, Feb is favored as the coldest month in terms of anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. That may also be the case in the SE US. He’s also saying that much of Dec is favored by climo to have warm anomalies, again nothing many here don’t already know. So, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

Yeah, really. Lol. Of course to some, pretty much everyone on this forum is not nearly as knowledgeable as eric. The redtaggers are just novelty mets.

    I don't disrespect Eric, he's a good Met. However, many are on here and shouldn't be disrespected either. That includes enthusiasts as well. Many are just as knowledgeable as degreed Mets. 

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. 

Yeah really. Sad how we miss Decembers of yore. 

Weeklies basically warm east/ cold west . Kicked can last couple weeks. They've not been that good lately, so probably wrong, at least as far as a week or so. 

       It may be those super warm SST'S off Japan that's throwing things off kilter. 

57 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I lived in Southaven ms back then but now I'm in jackson tn. Two weeks back to back with events and that was it

Yeah, unfortunately you guys in the western forum area missed out on much of it. 

    Btw, I've been in Jackson. My Sister used to live in Humboldt. Nice area. Reelfoot not far from there. 

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Only way to look at is that we don't have alot of opportunities even in great winters because we are in the south. 09-10 only got two events, which I was wanting 4-5 lol

Where do you live ? We had alot of events here in 09-10. 

6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Hopefully we don't go down 94-95 pathway anytime soon. Another warm winter

Yep. I'm hoping not. Severe Storms in January that Winter. 

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

Barely had misty sprinkles here so far. Hopefully it doesn't die out before we can get at least 1/4th inch. 

The November temperature outlook is deeply depressing for my winter loving self. We can still have a snowy winter after a warm November but the odds favor it going the other way.  I hope we can get a few more rain events just to get the fire danger in the rear view. 

 

 

 

Yeah, definitely not looking good irt November correlation. Many esp. MA see December as main one. Stats show November here. Not many went on to be Great Winters when November was mild. -94-95 starting to stick out again. Only good aspect to it was abundance of rain . It was backloaded but, only received several minor snowfalls of generally an inch or less in February. March did produce a Rain to Thundersnow event with a general 4 to 12" in far SWVA. Up to 18" reported in portions of Harlan and Letcher Co. KY.

     Just off memory, my Season Total was around 8". Paltry but, not like last Winter's 2.7.

4 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

Thanks! I’ll figure it out when the time comes.


.

Nice Unit ! I hope everything goes smoothly. 

2 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

I plan on upgrading my home weather station (current is Ambient 2902-A and moving to a Ambient 5000) and I was wondering if I can keep my same CWOP info that I have used for the last few years. Or If i will have to create a new one. 

Anyone got experience with this?

 

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=G1106

 

You can keep same.

23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I have my doubts about any real meaningful rainfall over the next 10 or so days. 

Yeah, it's really depressing to say the least. Forest fires are really smoking up the air. Really messing up my Sinuses. 

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year

 ??  We were referring to patterns. If a pattern was exactly same as late 70s in how it would still be below normal in today's climate. Otherwise, could go either way as far as winter. HLB I think is our main ticket we need this year. 

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable

I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter

Yeah, definitely more evidence. 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb.

1870s – 25.2

1880s – 27.6

1890s – 26.5

1900s – 24.9

1910s – 25.5

1920s – 25.8

1930s – 28.3

1940s – 27.0

1950s – 28.6

1960s – 26.2

1970s – 24.8

1980s – 25.9

1990s – 29.2

2000s – 27.7

2010s – 28.2

1874-2021 – 27.0

Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised. 

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

Not only them but, several pro mets here as well. I don't know why you are so hellbent on going against everyone here that sees things differently.       Granted, it could go either way at this juncture. Minus blocking , that latest update Apparently, you want a mild Winter. Your liking, nothing wrong with that.( With economic problems, would be a good thing itr). If not, why want to go all out against those who would like to see at least an average one after so many mild one's ? 

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.

Roundy rounder will be making his rounds 

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts

The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso. 

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm thinking Nino forcing finally makes a stand. MEI would hint at something less than strong from the pure ENSO, which would be helpful in many parts of our Region.

For temperatures. Roll a pair of dice. Or see Winter Spec. I actually found a bullish story this week (for now at least).

Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. 

      Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar.

      I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes. 

Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but... 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-

I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's.