Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year

 ??  We were referring to patterns. If a pattern was exactly same as late 70s in how it would still be below normal in today's climate. Otherwise, could go either way as far as winter. HLB I think is our main ticket we need this year. 

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable

I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter

Yeah, definitely more evidence. 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb.

1870s – 25.2

1880s – 27.6

1890s – 26.5

1900s – 24.9

1910s – 25.5

1920s – 25.8

1930s – 28.3

1940s – 27.0

1950s – 28.6

1960s – 26.2

1970s – 24.8

1980s – 25.9

1990s – 29.2

2000s – 27.7

2010s – 28.2

1874-2021 – 27.0

Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised. 

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

Not only them but, several pro mets here as well. I don't know why you are so hellbent on going against everyone here that sees things differently.       Granted, it could go either way at this juncture. Minus blocking , that latest update Apparently, you want a mild Winter. Your liking, nothing wrong with that.( With economic problems, would be a good thing itr). If not, why want to go all out against those who would like to see at least an average one after so many mild one's ? 

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.

Roundy rounder will be making his rounds 

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts

The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso. 

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm thinking Nino forcing finally makes a stand. MEI would hint at something less than strong from the pure ENSO, which would be helpful in many parts of our Region.

For temperatures. Roll a pair of dice. Or see Winter Spec. I actually found a bullish story this week (for now at least).

Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. 

      Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar.

      I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes. 

Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but... 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-

I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's. 

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, big change! 

Could mean it also went warmer, though? 

Odds are with that look. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I try not to do this, but that Webber ass is getting a shutout in my write up.....can't help myself.

Being who he is, he wouldn't be able to handle that

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

Yeah. Like the change in the N. Atlantic. Definitely more blocking oriented signature. May even have a decent shot at decent 50-50's this year.

      GOA may promote ridging there. Aleutian low may be west of Aleutians or possibly even South with the SST look. 

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The 1960s are a different beast entirely when it comes to analogs, but 1965-66 was a strong Nino with a +2 peak in fall into early winter. 

October 1965 was dry with an inch or less of rain falling around the area as a rule. November 1965 was dry and warm as a rule. It finished +2 and was especially warm it's first week. Around 2 inches of precip fell for the month. 

December of 1965 started cold. A major cold front passed right at the end of November with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the lower teens on November 30th. It warmed up quickly and also finished +2. 

January 1966 (my brother was born Jan 20th) started warm. The first week was wet and had highs in the 50s. 

A pair of cold fronts were on the way. Behind the first, a fast shot of cold with light snow came by. The high on the 8th was 27 with a low of 12. It warmed all the way up to 51 on the 9th after a low of 13. The second cold front came through and pushed highs into the low 40s with lows in the 20s. Basically normal here for January. There was a dusting of snow. 

Another front passed on the 13th, with freezing rain on the 14th and two inches of snow on the 15th. Deeper cold pressed in behind that with highs in the 20s and low 30s with lows in the teens through the 20th. We had 3 days of snow that totaled an inch over that time frame. 

On the 22nd a major snow event happened across most of the valley region. 6 to 8 inches of snow fell. 

On the 26th 3 more inches of snow fell. 

Then on the 29th-31st a monster snowstorm hit with a massive arctic blast following it. 8-12 inches of snow was wide spread. We were -15 on the 30th and -19 on the 31st with highs of 6 and 10. 

We closed out January with 22 inches of snow and one of the coldest period ever and it had all happened after January 10th for the most part. 

The first five days of February were cold and it snowed each day. Then winter mostly ended. There was a wet snow in late February with 2 inches and 2 inches in early March. 

But that 2 or 3 weeks in January was just brutal. Otherwise from November through March we were generally AN. 

 

 

 

HL blocking was prominent in the 60's Winter's. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

And just like that, fires are popping all around my area. It's why I hate dry falls most of all. 

Right with you on that brother. 

4 hours ago, griteater said:

He probably has additional ideas, but the bolded isn’t true cause the highest MEI values occurred during the big east based El Niños of 82-83 and 97-98 

Exactly. You got Webb there, lol. 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has to be the dumbest comment I have ever heard from a pro met. The irony of him ranting about JB having an agenda....

As in politics anymore, the one accusing the other is the one pushing an agenda it seems. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Models have been particularly inept with this event so far.

-PDO El Nino blend was not too bad for October. We'll see how long that lasts.  Weaknesses in the transient heat showed up more or less where you'd expect.

Pattern competition has been showing up. That's a hallmark of the years with PDO/ENSO in opposite phases. Cold snap below is what I was referring to in my outlook from 10/10, the late month Western cold shot. 

Shows up in the analogs too - 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, and 2009 as a blend got pretty cold late October in the West. Some of the years have it bleeding East by month end, others wait until November. Showed up about two days two late to make the West colder than the East unfortunately.

Canadian has moved DJF tropical precipitation east of the last run. Now looks like a true 6-7 MJO blend, with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole influence north of Madagascar.

The 500 mb look seems to feature a lot of +WPO looks. It's hard to get the US real cold when that happens. This is actually pretty close to the look I had in my forecast. March looks ferocious again actually. I'm on board with 1/15-4/15 being pretty snowy in the West and Plains, with occasional monster storms running east as wind + rain or snow on various trajectories. It's a very wet look.

I'm thinking a couple -PDO/Nino Winter's in the 1960's featured a similar look as the Cansips. Of course, a different climate era so, shouldn't be as cold. The Avg to above average Snowfall wasn't confined to the West those Winters. 

9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

To those wondering about November surface T forecasts. This is a mega-ensemble CFS/GEFS/ECMWF weeklies. I'm sorry if it violates the hate speech rule. Warm and totally uninspiring. 

If that comes to fruition, Northern Plains and Southern Canada Snow Cover's going to suffer or disappear. Not usually too alarming at that juncture but, it does extend well North in western Canada. Chinook !     Regardless, let's hope it's wrong. Hudson and Eastern Canada looks fine and would probably be adding snow pack. 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Like IT@G’s thoughts, LC doesn’t feel like this is a normally behaving El Niño.  I need to go back and re-read it.  I was in a hurry when I read it.  I am not big on a cold December, but there are a cluster of El Niño’s which have cold December’s...and some of those are the record dry September/October analogs.  Those analogs aren’t a great match for one reason or another, but I found the possible correlation interesting.

Yeah, very interesting and worth mulling over. Whatever is squelching the STJ to oblivion in the South quite possibly is the same "thing" that did it those year's. Just need to find the source. Could be something to do with the Baja cold pool. What areas of the N. Hemisphere that are showing El nino prints , appear to be west of typical as well. So, probably something bigger as a whole as far as 500 mb mechanical atmospheric Driver's, although, the Baja deal probably is affecting the eastern STJ extension. (From Baja eastward). 

    Could be the IOD, maybe even Tunga strat/trop association. Not well versed in that other than effects at HL of which sample size is not great and that is of Volcanic Ash, not moisture.

      What have you came up with Carver ? 

Forgot to mention the SW Atlantic Tropical activity. It's definitely having an effect as we both concluded. Question is, will that disturbed area help or hurt the SE/TN Valley when the STJ finally holds up enough to traverse the area. If the STJ is strong enough, it should pull that moisture laden airmass into it. However, if not , it may not help at all. 

Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. 

       Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz. 

10 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Most time, but not all time the AO will be crazy positive when a SSW is developing so usually that's a good sign it may get cold if that happens. Big spikes in teleconnections 

Sadly, as many of us know, SSW can sometimes mess up a good pattern for us. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think you nailed it when you said that active hurricane season is wrecking havoc on modeling and the EC wx pattern.  I think that is more likely a product of a warm Atlantic basin than it is a Nina hangover.  That we have not had more landfalling hurricanes is probably more a product of Nino climatology.  NE TN is a place where, once drought is established, it can be very difficult to break...same thing re: a flooding pattern.  

Cosgrove has a great write-up for winter...maybe implied that by late November we maybe head towards a more traditional Nino pattern.  Though he seems to think this will be a less traditional Nino winter where December might turn colder than many think - that is off the top of my head so anyone feel free to correct that if it isn't correct.

Lol. Hadn't saw this post by you. Was replying to other. Sounds like I'm on same page as Coz. Knowing Coz is leaning colder for December makes me feel more confident about it. He's hard to beat. 

    I think you nailed it on why the lack of landfalling canes Buddy. Makes sense. 

     I'm going to go check Larry's  outlook out. 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Drought breeds more drought.  That much I am certain of....

Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos.  My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread.  I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino.  Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of El Nino, not always La Nina.  Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI.  I anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit.  Lots of AN SSTs.  The amount of rainfall from April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of winter.  As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers.   If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't.  It was rainy and BN for months on end.  Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought?  Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong.  What is your reasoning behind that?  I would be interested to know.

Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  What did you think?

Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression.  Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown.   Those analogs may or may not be right.

Y

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Drought breeds more drought.  That much I am certain of....

Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos.  My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread.  I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino.  Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of El Nino, not always La Nina.  Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI.  I anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit.  Lots of AN SSTs.  The amount of rainfall from April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of winter.  As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers.   If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't.  It was rainy and BN for months on end.  Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought?  Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong.  What is your reasoning behind that?  I would be interested to know.

Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  What did you think?

Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression.  Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown.   Those analogs may or may not be right.

I saw Cansips and overall it looks pretty good. I do think it may be overplaying the -PDO as it is close to neutral. Also, if the AO and NAO go as guidance suggests December could be colder than suggested. 

    I hadn't saw Cozs Outlook. Will give it a read. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I am definitely concerned.  I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought.  I know you are careful as well.   I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts.  The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).  

Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then.

      I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ.