Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days.

I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol!

Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 

12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut?

guarantee one or the other.

Only reached 34 here today. A dusting of snow this morning with the low of 27. 

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower.

The Ship never came. 

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

There’s actually two periods to watch in the LR, and I’ll stress that it likely favors interior with all of them. We’re gonna need a little luck in coastal plain, but not impossible. This first event we’re tracking now and then possibly a front ender type if that event forms into 50/50. The pattern is gonna kill a lot of people because It’s happening when it is.

Check out this pattern at end of GFS lol, pain.




.

Yeah, if only that had setup in January or February. 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don’t think it was overly cold here either due to wind and cloud cover.  Tonight is prob going to be the roughest IMBY re: freeze.  The wind chills are pretty sharp currently though.   

Yeah, clouds and wind kept temps up some. Did manage to hit 27. If winds die and skies clear, especially if early , yeah, very cold night on tap. May hit 20 or lower some areas. 

Not alot but, at least a nice little surprise. Still flurrying. 

Temp. fell from 29 to 27.4 during that heavy snshwr. .

  I was really pulling for the weekend system as i'm afraid it may warm up a little too much for the Tuesday one. Hopefully timing will be good and cold locks in enough.

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Bonus snow!   Wind chills this morning are around 25.  It feels like the middle of winter.  Our spring sports groups were send inside yesterday by graupel.  I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL.

Coming down moderate to heavy now with a heavy dusting.. even on roads.

    Looked at Pennington gap camera and quarter sized flakes there. Still small dense ones here. 

Update: heavy snow falling about 200 yards to my east onward. Hills whited out ! 

A light dusting here. Small flakes coming down pretty good now. Steady light snow. 

Snow showers been moving through here.. Mainly Graupel 

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I will take todays wx for soccer. Low to mid 50’s is perfect for it.  My opinion to get snow in lower elevations will take a miracle.  Plus the ground temps would melt plenty of snow falling for it to overcome for it to stick. Then you have sun angle against us also.  At this point I don’t won’t any temps. close to supporting snow.  Why? It would most likely just be a very cold rain.  Hard pass on that scenario. My fescue is loving this wx. 

Your area it would be highly unlikely. Eastern areas, particularly northern sections not that unlikely. One of the biggest Snowfalls I ever witnessed occured April 2-5, 1987. I lived near Pennington gap,Lee County, VA at an elevation of 1550 ft. and recorded 30 inches on the north facing, shaded area's. I remember reaching down to the ground and it was wet underneath. Temps had been in the 70's for 2 weeks prior to the Storm. There'd easily been 4 feet had it all accumulated. In fact, 54" was recorded on High Knob near Norton.

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

The 8200' level has remained all snow. The platform is piled up with fresh snow, and the winds are blowing it around as even MORE snow continues to add to the drifts up there. Palisades Tahoe is a snow lovers' wet dream! It just keeps right on giving and it never ever lets you down! They might end up piling on another 7 feet by Tuesday night! Those webcams are a BLAST, a kind of vicarious blizzard blast! That place is nothing but unlimited happiness for ever and ever! They say the snowbase is 224 inches! Just wow! Take a gander at their snow forecast!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/snow-and-weather

And the webcams

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

Temps are DROPPING! Down to 24, now! Drop those snow levels! We need even MORE heavy snow at the Palisades! One thing I love, and cherish, is the thought of all the Palisades staff on deck, trying so hard to dig out the chairlifts, and then they get demolished by ANOTHER intense record atmospheric river of insane snow rates! Their biggest season on record is 707 in 2016-17, I think. Can we do 1000 inches at Palisades this season? I think so! Which brings up the question, Palisades resort staffers.......

CAN. YOU. DIG. IT. ?????????

It actually changed to rain in Truckee for a while today. 

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area.  It just about has that now.  

12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter.

This is not a complaint but just general amusement.  It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter.  I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past.  Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes.  I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again.  We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out.  Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog!  LOL.

The difference this time may be the MJO if the western seasonal track is bucked. Also, Nina has weakened.  Hopefully, these factors buck the seasonal trend. However, troughiness in the SW will try to continue the cutter pattern.

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

What does the high amp translate to?

Stronger Wave. Therefore greater effect on 500 mb Pattern. 

Everybody, go check out the Truckee/ lake Tahoe Cam's if you wanna see something spectacular. Flakes at least 3" diameter were falling a few minutes ago.

Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Happy hour GFS gives some love to extreme NE TN, SWVA,  and parts of the plateau:

This is for the system this Sunday. 

Yeah, that one has Legs. Euro showing it as well. May actually trend to cover more of the area. 

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

*Baffin Block

*50/50

*trough going neutral in TN valley 

*Ridge near Boise

 

Looks good!! That one looks to have Legs. 

Here ya go guys . Salivate ! Truckee CA :

Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

11 hours ago, Uncle Nasty said:

If this belongs in Banter I'll move it. Every year the blizzard gets brought up nearing the anniversary
We are approaching the 30 year on the 12th. Here is a great write up by Morristown about the storm and the 30 year anniversary.


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/0563d35d1eeb4d4082dd4687686000dd

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

I remember the Blizzard well. One thing they mentioned was wrong, as far as here in Lee County is concerned. The Storm didn't begin as Rain. Snow began to fall in Pennington gap at 1:13 Friday Afternoon with a Temp. of 36 . The Temp rapidly fell below freezing as Snow began to accumulate quickly. 

In all my 40+ years of meteorological experience I've never seen the 500 mb Pattern behave irt the NAO blocking continually hooking up with the SER.... It's just hard to believe what we're witnessing. 

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point.  Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th.  I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

I agree with you wholeheartedly with this . In actuality, i'm confident of measurable snow even in Valley Locations south to I-40 and quite possibly further South. Alot of cold waiting in the wings with transporting Driver's aligning. Also, STJ has been pretty juicy and the real possibility of Miller A Cyclogenesis exists, imo...

43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly

Same here. 

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

Good post and point. The deepness of that western trough is a real monkeywrench. Hopefully, we can at least get a ridge over top and cut it off.

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Wash, rinse, repeat:
n

Yeah, same ol bs this poor excuse of a Winter.