Daniel Boone

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think phase 8 is warm in El Nino Decembers, not later in the year. it's a cold signal for Jan and Feb

either way, the MJO becomes a lot more favorable and there are reasons for optimism late-month

Exactly. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So let me get this straight...according to him the traditional warm phases 3-6 are warm, but in an el nino the cold phases 8-1-2 are also warm?  SO WTF is cold?  

Yeah really, lol . Never saw anything differentiating MJO Phases based on Enso. 

Thundersnow

Sugar Ski & Country Club Sugar Mountain Web Cam - Resort Cams

Saw on SE sub that it was snowing at 4500 ft this morning. I'd venture to say Thundersnow occurred above 4000 feet with the cells this Afternoon. Temp fell from 52 to 43 during storm here. 

thunder in the mountains ftw ! Thunderstorms crossing area currently. Large claps of thunder here.

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I just daydream about being atop mount Rainier in times like these: 

The only mistake that forecaster is making is saying the snow " could be heavy". Should be "will be"  , as is obvious. 

      Can you imagine that ?! Those rates !!!!!! 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Seen a tweet talking about El Niño winters after severe drought conditions in ETn. Something like 3 of our 4 major droughts during a Nino was followed by some of our snowiest winters on record. One of those was a late 1800’s winter that was the snowiest winter on record for Knoxville. Obviously not suggesting this is coming but it’s nice to have some history on your side. One good thing either way, dry Nino winters seem very rare.


.

I think that Winter Knoxville recorded around 6 feet. I'm thinking a Dr Dewpoint Article by Joe D'aleo on Intellicast had it. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The warm start to December is shrinking with each passing model run.  Here at TRI, we have two different days in which snow might fly this week.

I recall several years ago models would always have to adjust to blocking effects. They would trend colder as we progressed during those episodes. May be at least partially what's going on. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Northern England is getting blitzed with heavy snow. They average around an inch a year in places that look to be getting 6-10.  Maybe someday our unusually heavy snows will return. Those snow departure maps that were put out the other day were depressing, as our area had the biggest snowfall loss of any area. Ironically, areas along the gulf and deep south were actually getting more snow than they did in the 1960s-1980s.

Yeah, blocks definitely doing it's work for them. Pacifics killing us. 

    Saw video from Airport in Germany yesterday and looked like nearly 2 feet on runway ! Much higher drifts. 

9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

You unfortunately need to flush it out with (Pac) Puke for awhile.  Then let the cold beer re-generate once the MJO beer index gets out of the no beer circle of death, and the -SBFI (negative Scraff Beer Fridge Index) is able to go positive again!

There's some hope this Winter for the East according to the Great incredible Oz of Meteorology, Snowman's brother, Radiance wx. He said it'll be more '09-10 Nino like by March. Maybe as early as late February . All hope is not lost  What great News!!!

54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The clown map is gonna be fun.  LOL.

Yeah, has one Storm(18th) dumping 14" here. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over. 

Exactly. 

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022)

https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3

Yep. Whatever the cause, it's definitely got some strength. Bluewave may be onto something with his reasoning regarding the western Pac warmth. 

Possibly foul HLB Blocking up. 

Yeah, been hoping trend would be westward with that feature. 

5 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, not sure if you know about this website, but it has alot of stuff for people to look at: daculaweather.com. if it don't take you straight to mjo page, just put in: dacula weather mjo. Very informative stuff

Larry's website. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sometimes I read JB, and wonder...did we just talk about that on our sub-forum?  And yes, yes we did this time.  He has a nice post about the MJO this morning, and....how it is driving the pattern. @Daniel Boone, you called front seat on this one!  Anyway, I take a slightly different tangent than JB(I think) and use the GEFS ext(weeklies) as the GEFS has simply been kicking butt and taking names of late, and it usually does this during shoulder season.  Then, after shoulder season, the ECMWF suite returns the favor most years.  

The first slide is the MJO centered on NDJ.  Of note, if centered on OND, the southeast ridge presents itself in phases 8, 1, and 2.  The lesson?  The deeper that we get into December the more that regions 8 and 1 verify as colder.  The next three slides are the CPC indices re:  NAO, AO, and PNA.  The NAO in my opinion is just not overly important at this time of year.  It matters more during mid/later winter and spring.  And note to self, an -NAO during fall means scorching hot temps in the southeast(same for summer usually).  The AO and PNA are going to drive the bus this winter IMHO.  With the NAO going negative early, it probably will have a say later this winter as that often repeats.  However, when the PNA/AO are in tandem it gets cold here.  Just look at the last couple of days for evidence.

Now, onto the MJO....take a look at the GEFS ext.  This plot came out yesterday.  It rotates into phase 8 around the 17th.  Many weeklies model runs have been fairly stubborn in the regime changing around mid-month.   This has been true since the beginning of November.  And even more interesting, the pushing back of the pattern changes has been almost non-existent.  Maybe during the past month it has been pushed back 24-72 hours.  I think I had a post a couple of weeks ago about modeling switching up around the 14th.  It might be the 17th now.  But overall, the week of Christmas looks like a transition timeframe with decent potential afterwards.

And how do we know the MJO is in crap phases right now...well, because we are having to talk about it(Flash's rule #1).  The good news is that we should see it rotate on around instead of camping out inf 4-5-6.

Lastly, source regions matter.  Beware during El Nino years....

 

Excellent post brother ! As far as any credit to me, just seeing what's presented before us and giving my relic opinion, lol. Going to be alot of  luck with this one. Basin wide Nino going to make it tougher, really. Sure there's more favored forcing areas but ...you know what I'm saying. To pinpoint exactly when the MJO will reach the cold phases, your Post is right on. You're the best man ! 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I expect the warmup to be longer than expected.  The MJO will work against us until mid Jan I think, and then it flips in our favor.   I still think mid-Jan through Feb is our best shot.  Anything prior is just bonus for me.  Pretty active pattern though with poor temp source regions feeding it.  Good to see the pattern being modeled as an active one.

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me with Nino Climo and the basically basin wide strong Nino. The phase forcing should change favorably in January. So, you're probably right man. I still hold some hope for something to knock the typical canonical Nino December off kilter enough to give us a shot or two. 

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting overnight developments in regards to Weeklies output.  The transition week looks to be the week of Christmas.  That could leave us with a seasonal or warm Christmas.  It is after that that the longwave pattern is quite cold.  Now, I must caution...modeling has (likely) already erroneously signaled that cold transition this winter for the Dec 14th time frame - technically, it could end up being correct.  But that was shoulder season modeling, and maybe even it was an example of the cart getting in front of the horse - meaning sometimes modeling flips too quickly by a week or two.  So, the expected turn to colder was pushed back.  However, the transition begins about 7-10 days after LR extended modeling originally had it.  Is it right? I am very cautiously optimistic.  The actual pattern transition to an eastern trough sits in the 21-28 day range(with hints of the transition even prior to that as rains are now returning it appears - reference LC).  So, there is some skill there, but models will often bust in that range.  What is the biggest concern?  The cold dumps West and holds and/or a strat warm is just creating havoc in LR modeling.  I don't think that happens but the residual PDO (does anyone have the current, daily output?) and Nino climatology could do exactly that.  I just don't think it holds in the West this time.  The MJO would likely kick it out as it is primed for decent phases by mid winter.   So we might be looking at our first cold shot of the winter.  It might work something like this:

Weeks 1-2 of December: warm

Week 3: transitional phase

Week 4:  seasonably cold

Weeks 1-2 of January: cold

But all of that said, it would absolutely not surprise me to see all of that shifted back two weeks.  I seems like it really wants to be warm IMBY during the New Year, and the second or third week of Jan is when the colder part of Nino winters hit.  But the above is what modeling is generally showing right now.  Is it right?  I don't know, but I think it is a bit quick and maybe a bit extreme.  And it is odd to see modeling so cold at this range.  Time will tell.

My recent experience w/ 10mb strat warms is that models will erroneously dump cold into the East, but revert to the West(that could be Nina climatology doing that during the past three years).  But the general defaults of strat warming cold displacement are: 1. Eurasia 2. western US 3. EC in that order.

New CANSIPS out in a couple of days....

Hopefully, the mild spell is shorter than forecasted. Block will squelch it some. MJO Amplitude in warm phase may be the determining factor in how much warming we get. That warm pool might amplify it's affects, however though. Hopefully, it will move along and get to cold phases. It should hit a decent Amp once there. 

48 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Basically the list is any dissenting thought from the cult, lol. 

 

But you are correct on the geomag. Anthony Masiello has a good handle on that. Where did that dude go?

Not saw anything from Anthony since August. Seems I remember seeing something somewhere of health issues. 

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

I see Isotherm lurking but, not posting. Miss his Outlook. 

Radiance wx posted on main forum enso thread how CFS v2 was showing a warm December referencing the eastern states as he's been forecasting. He showed how his analogues have outperformed guidance this Fall. He's been forecasting another cold /snowy Winter in New Mexico where he lives. 

He actually does pretty good over all but, he kinda stuck his foot in his mouth as the CFS 2 is showing the entire country mild for December, even New Mexico. 

     I thought it kind of funny, lol

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The models have been pretty bad so far. Although the CFS does have a warm December. It can at least see the tendency for systems to undercut the northern heat.

My unweighted analog blend from August beat the Canadian (currently +3 to +6 in the Northern Plains, not cold as the Canadian shows). I did get cute in November by changing the weighting of the years in the forecast. But overall, the raw blend +1 for its age did just fine. Local snow, precipitation, and high profile for November is nearly identical to the blend. November is already at an inch of snow here (let's see if my troll gets annoyed), with a bit more possible by 11/30. We've had double our normal precipitation. First month to do that since October 2022 locally. Month will finish warm, but not much. It's been cold lately, and yes the cold lately is centered in the Plains/West. I would invite all of you to look at precipitation patterns - Nov was an interesting month for precip.

 

Observed:

Cfs2 has entire US mild for December... even New Mexico( surely not, that has to be wrong). Old Mexico too for that matter, lol

4 hours ago, griteater said:

Here is an MJO product that combines the standard MJO with the current 120-day signal (i.e. the background base tropical forcing pattern).  This product has the MJO running thru 8-1-2 from Dec 15 to Jan 10.  Euro Weeklies look similar.

Source: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/

 

If that turns out to be realized, good odds of a cold probably snowy Holiday period, providing that warm pool off Japan doesn't throw a monkey wrench and alter the typical downstream pattern. Could that be at least partially responsible for an eastward displaced Aleutian/Goa Lp.?. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX mentioned snow above 3k' I "think."

The 12z Euro also is picking up on an active (mostly rainy) wx pattern during the next ten days.  That storm around 170-180hr probably is going to have to be watched for frozen possibilities either with wrap around or with the storm itself.  There may be some minor upslope potential following it.  Still way out there, so lots of possibilities...but generally a slp tracking to our SE w/ marginal surface temps.

Yeah, checked their Twitter and they finally did mention possibly ending as a mix in the Mountains Monday morning last night. Of course they were referencing higher elevations. So, still late and also the elevation and precip type part. With the setup and model output I'd worded flurries in the lower eles Monday morning with snow shower's in higher elevations ending late morning.

    Depending on how long and strong blocking holds, could be cooler than indicated during projected mild period.