Daniel Boone

29 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

NWS Jackson is currently thinking around an inch overall:

 

They're basically following Euro looks like. 

11 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Flooding is quite common during even the most sever of winters, and so is severe weather.

Yeah, late December '69 a good example. Very cold, snowy winter. '95-96, overall cold and very snowy had bouts of heavy rain and flooding. Winter '63.. etc.. could go on and on. 

    P. S., felt should throw this in. There have been a few exceptions to the rule of severe Winter's having their thaws and flooding. 76-77 and '77-78 come to mind. 76-77 did flood but, wasn't till Spring. April 4th. 

      Those are extremely rare and exceptions to the rule, however. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

The pattern is loaded for Firehose February


.

Wouldn't be surprised, lol. Hopefully that firehouse runs into a huge eastern, Arctic Jet driven Trough and overflows it with Snow ❄️

The theme for the fall and early Winter has been 3 weeks cold west vs a week to 10 days cold east.  Block or no block.

     I don't know why but, it's as if we are going through a cyclic continual process. The Nina is the biggest Driver. I suspect the MJO is having some impact. Alas, the NW Atlantic SST'S. 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

 

Oh yeah im not giving up but all the models have been atrocious with this pattern setup even the damn Euro. It's not the king because in the mid range it was clueless especially on the PAC side. The gfs really has been very consistent the past few days with the euro literature moving lows 700 miles from run to run. We very well may see something pop once we get 2 to 3 days from a system coming through.  Seems like the more upgrades the worst the models get...

I agree completely man. Model's appear to have gotten worse over the last couple years. 

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

This run not going to cut it either this weekend.  Hell looks like we get storms then a flash freeze. Still a ways to go though.  But currently not impressed. 

Nothing worse than rain then flash freeze and bitter cold with no snow. Better to be warm and sunny for Christmas. 

34 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does.  Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. 
 

In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.

One way or the other I'm pretty positive we'll get some snow, whether a dusting or several inches. 

      I have saw that happen with transfer's; a decent shield of snow heading in from the west only to be killed by a system developing well to the east and sucking the energy into it. 

      I have also witnessed Lee side development that enhanced precip by throwing moisture back . 

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Some runs have had little waves of snow after the big system. Honestly could pick up a quick inch or two if we get something small with the cold temps. I remember one little wave after a big storm several years ago where I got a random 3 or 4 inches of snow. Something to watch for sure. 

This may be one of those years when some area's see a white Christmas ( 1" or more) while other's a short distance away doesn't . 

Nina Ninja still main culprit. I do wonder lf a formidable 50-50 Low were in place how this would transpire. I do believe that is the biggest problem with this pattern let alone the powerhouse storms coming out of the Plains. Those SST's around Newfoundland are the probable cause, i.m.o

41 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

We're gonna need a hail mary of an eastward trend, that or some trailing energy once the low wraps the cold in.

Yeppers ! 

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The answer I believe is more complex and includes multiple different aspects. I do believe, so far this season, SST's are playing more of a part in the issues up north with trying to get an established block. 

My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it.  I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities. 

1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

There are other issues like the warm ocean temps, that I fell are playing a part in this. Also like CAPE just said, this being a Nina year presents its own set of issues as well.

Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. 

       I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect. 

5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Or we can try and figure out where those "DT-Forecasted" snowstorms went. Lets look at his social media post on Nov 30th and play the game of "decipher the code" or "solve the equation". Maybe its a typo...he meant "Major East Coast Rainstorms"

the 50-50 low is whats been missing. thats the problem as cape's alluded to in other posts.

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI.  Has to be that one.  That is a great example of how this "could" work.

Yep! I would of loved to of seen that fall ! That much snow in 6 hours on a saturated ground...

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, time to wake this thread up!  With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look.   With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow.   I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85.  The cold basically just took over the front.  

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! 

  Forecasts were for light amounts.

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

I'm with you on this NAO stuff. I've yet to see one that helped much. Maybe that'll change when we get the Magical Moderate maybe Modoki El Nino next year. I think the last time an NAO did much was 2009 - 10? I've only participated on the weather boards for a few years now, but before that when I started people were always looking for them. Apparently they've been very rare over the past decade or so, so maybe 09-10 worked so well that after that it was all people could think of? If everything has to be perfect with them, are really just chasing unicorns like 9-10 and 95-96? 

Some of y'all are a lot older than me though, so maybe you remember better NAO times. Maybe the AMO has to flip for them to really help? 

It does seem to of hurt more than help lately. 10-11 it played a big role in that Nina being cold/ snowy. Year before last it did seem to help some. I think alot of the problem is where we are not getting the usual 50-50 Low with it. If you add it to the equation, these systems cutting would go so far only to be shunted SE even when they come in too far into the West . Also, without that 50-50 the block can connect with the SER, as has been the case quite often in recent years.

    The culprit could be the SST's off Newfoundland not being conducive for LP there. 

29 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

If it can do that, then it can flip to cold from warm. WE CAN DO IT. It will snow.

The warm almost always verifies. 

5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover. 

Insult to injury. Might as well be warm so can get outside some. 

28 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone

Yep, exactly. Get strong west based -NAO and still rain. The ultimate let down.  

15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Because of how cold this airmass is, IMO there’s a 50% chance the outcome hasn’t even been modeled yet. Mods really struggle with air this cold and a active pattern.


.

Yeah, may rush in soon enough to changeover and still produce measurable snow ❄️

Desperately need a 50-50 or thereabouts to stop these things from cutting. If not, a further east PNA Ridge. 

2 minutes ago, Reb said:

GFS caving this run to the dreaded cutter it appears

Not surprising, unfortunately. Hopefully, the cold will crash and still produce a measurable snowfall on backside. 

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian was more snowy than its 12z run across the area. 

But because of it's crazy evolution it shows Lake Effect from every direction on every lake at some point and you get lots of 2-4 foot totals around them all. 

Yeah, it's confused, lol

2 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

204 on the GFS looks like it may end up have a GL Low which of course is no bueno for the second storm, see what happens next frame.

Unless it phased and pulled coastal back . With a block in place, that's a possibility. Cold would be wrapped under the GL LP.

Just now, John1122 said:

The Canadian would be an extremely rare storm. Models show that look of a low retrograding to the WNW on occasion but it almost never happened. I've seen it modeled several times over the years and none of them verified. The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 did that. And maybe one of the 70s blizzards. They are extremely rare. 

Exactly Odds are against that for sure.