Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z GEFS is forecasting towards midmonth easily the strongest Jan -NAO since 2011 and 2010. Both of these times, ATL and other areas had measurable snow with 2011 being major in much of the SE US. It is also forecasting a very strong -AO. In addition, it is forecasting a strong MJO phase 4 and moderate -PNA.

 

It's just unreal how we seldom get the MJO in favorable phases with a formidable -NAO . 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 8-14 analogs:

19590102
19680106
19960129
19620117
19850131
20040102
19811230
19681228
19710107
19940107

 

Many good Analogues there. 

1 hour ago, Knoxtron said:

Only other model that kinda supports it seems to be euro, no major short term model support.

 

Oh nam, you get me every time

Used to when you got the Euro and Nam in agreement it was a seal the deal thing. Not so much anymore. 

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Also critical to our region usually is having the regions north and northwest with some good snowpack. That hasn't really happened yet but looks like over the next few weeks might finally begin to start building. I have family in the UP of Michigan and they at Christmas had zero snow on the ground which is very very rare for them. Usually by end of December the Superior snowbelt region has a couple feet of snow on the ground already. For Detroit area in lower Michigan it's the second least snowy December ever recorded and among the warmest.

As I sit and type this it is snowing now suddenly at my house, looks like virga is trying to overcome the dry air. Not really snow but graupel.

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Noticed radar returns were enhancing in area's. Graupel can definitely make it through that dry Column more than flakes. Maybe we'll get a surprise dusting tonight. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And that is exactly what 18z looked like.  I had a high of 12 on that run for a day.

Hopefully, it comes to fruition. Pretty good odds actually . 

32 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I can literally smell snow. Them clouds have that milky look to them.

Yeah, clouds definitely snowy looking. If it weren't for the dry mid layer Atmosphere. Snowing in a broad area way up in Altitude. Virga Storm. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am good with weak Nina characteristics, and maybe we see some of that as this Nino collapses.  The 18z is bitterly cold at d+10.  That would be a great look.  

Appreciate everyone as always.  Great discussion!

Yeah. That's the thing. It could work better for us with a mix Nina/Nino Pattern. Nina more apt to promote Arctic airmass delivery via Polar Jet and Clipper's as well. Nino SJT along with Blocking. Enhanced possibility of a big Dog imo. If we can get that Arctic airmass down here as shown then , that should be when the real fun begins. 

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Plus, the negative NAO isn’t due to fire untold Jan 11ish.  I don’t think we will know the outcome of the pattern after that until it is in place.  Models have been poor predicting NAOs traditionally.  Does it hook and hold into the eastern ridge or does it force BN heights to its south which it should?  I think we get a really good pattern.
 

I think the MJO is driving the bus for the next ten days and has been for that last 40-50 days.  We see the consequences of the MJO as an EPO or PNA (or lack of)or the retracted jet(which its opposite probably was a driver earlier).  Temps mirror the MJO right now very closely, and have been.

Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter. 

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

After looking at it a bit, it looks like the EPO has been driving things to a large extent here. The few actual cool downs we've managed this late fall/early winter have coincided with it going negative. Often it will lock in negative when it does and truly bring severe winter conditions to the east. However, this year it's been very transient with 4 or 5 days in the negative and we follow with several days BN, then it rebounds to positive and we warm back up. A -EPO will overwhelm a -PNA and flood cold air this way. I seem to recall 2015 the PNA was negative in late Feb but the EPO was also deeply negative and we were 15-20 degrees bn with a lot of snow and ice as the EPO overwhelmed the PNA.

Exactly what's been going on. Bluewave posted recently in the regular Forum regarding that and his thoughts behind it. The Western Pac Warm pool is what he said and actually gave a pretty convincing reasoning. Many, Pros and Enthusiasts alike gave their argument in how the Nino should overcome that. Apparently, it hasn't. It probably is trying thus the occasional -EPO. 

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

We saw some step backs last night in LR, let’s hope that doesn’t continue at 12z


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Yeah, Model reflection of MJO warm phases projection along with Jet Ext..

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Look at the 18z gfs. Still has the wound up storm cutting. Who is right? My bets are on the Euro and eps. Gfs is out to lunch. There are going to be some changes in the pattern moving forward.

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Yeah, with that strong -NAO the GFS should correct SE with those cutting Systems. May even do like the lumbering LP that hit central Plains with that blizzard a little over a week ago. It cut toward the MW then got shunted SE by the HP in Canada then. 

        That used to happen in Winter's of yore when blocking was in place. If one did cut it would get blocked and then have to travel SE under and around the blocking. 

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The PAC NW is supposed to get 7-10 inches of rain and 60-80 inches of snow over the next 16 days. When you see that there, we're rarely going to be getting much in the way of winter weather, as it means a very hostile pacific.

Yeah, that's the case most of the time. Hopefully, the strong -NAO will ultimately lead to those Systems tracking SE and we get some hybrid Transfers ala 95-96. Phasing with STJ Systems would be the thing to watch with the Nino being around now. 

56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, some guys in the MA forum mentioned the same thing(mets).  I wonder if there is a model bias to cut storms during El Nino due to "model memory" from the past three years.  IDK - just spitballing.  If models "learn," they may have developed some Nina habits.  Used to (I know you know this), we wanted a storm to the SE of us and it would trend NW.  Now, I have no idea where we want it on modeling.  The cutter after that....maybe that is where we want it!  LOL.

Bingo ! I think you nailed there buddy. 

56 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah my parents still talk about that storm (they were in Ohio)

My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing ! 

54 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the freaking NPAC is acting like we are in a Nina... It's frustrating as heck.

Exactly. Those super warm SST'S in the western PAC is the culprit I'm pretty confident of. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro -> Dr No

Yep. Living up to it's name for us. 

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

As expected, the Euro took a big shift north. 

Yeah, that OV Lp. Started to mention earlier that I bet we'd have to deal with that when the GFS went South with basically a Miller A. Puts us in the screw zone. 

39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It might get to SE TN.  It would be a reach on my part, but there is still plenty of time for that.  

Yeah true. Wouldn't it be a slap for the great Valley to get missed to the South and then North. Wouldn't be a huge surprise though as has happened quite a few times, even EWSN , lol. So's the life of those living in the Great Valley. 

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z ICON has it as well for next weekend.  You know, I am not sleeping on the Thursday system.  The ICON has a mix for SE areas of the forum if I cam reading the green/blue combo correctly.  A slight tic northwest, and those areas could score.

Yeah, looks like northern Alabama and Georgia may score with that one. 

Hopefully we can get that clean Miller A southern track with stronger hp to the North. It's always rather worrisome, particularly here in the great Valley, when there's not a very cold Airmass in place. Also, definitely don't want a strong storm to our South with just marginal cold for it to pull down as that would result in stronger wind thereby enhaning downsloping. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Flashback…

https://x.com/weathernut27/status/1741578524610207901?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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Remember that one well. High ratio here as Temp was around 20. Measured 7 inches. 

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

88-89 was probably the first winter when I knew that winter was changing, and summer for that matter as well.  Having grown-up during the 70s and 80s, 88-89 was ok for a winter...but the very late start(flirted with a non winter for a time) and following very warm January were pretty big red flags in hindsight, and red flags even then.  I remember asking my dad if winter had changed.  Again, as I noted in my response to John, I would gladly take that winter today.  Then, it was pretty meh.  

But I originally misread the analog as 89-90.

At the time, the 88-89 winter also followed a wicked hot stretch of summer at TRI.  So, even to the modest weather follower, things were "off" that year.  I remember, up until recently, that summer as being the hottest summer of my life.   It wasn't the averages that were off, but the multiple 4-5 day stretches of 95-101F temps that were rough.

Yeah, Summer '88 still holds the Record for hottest I've ever recorded. 101. The extended stretches of extreme heat as you mentioned were unreal! 

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event  over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.

Yeah, that was the only good Month of that Winter. You outdone us here by about about 3 inches. The end of the Month one was the biggest. I think it was the 25th. 5 inches here . Would have been an inch or two more were not for it sleeting over an hour at the beginning. Ice pellets that mounted to about half inch. You probably had all Snow with that one. 

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

NAM'd

Hope that comes to fruition. It would make it easier to handle the cutter next Weekend. Carvers made good points regarding it . It could pay dividends afterward. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And you know, there is more.  Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 for fun.............I will trust that you will look at the stamps to see the duration.

 

 

 

That EC Ensemble 500 depiction is very close to Ideal.