Daniel Boone

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great insight.  For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville.  I am getting ready to send one to UT next year.  I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s.  Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV.  Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville.  Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation.  Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring.   Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate.  The rain shadow up here is what is the worst.  Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.  

Margie was my favorite as a Teenager. She would cover a broad area. She was a very good TV Met. 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where

That'd be right up your alley man ,being a severe wx lover.

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z.  Newest run is on the left...

 

This puts me in mind of a similar setup in January 1990( similar winter). An Arctic air mass was moving southward pretty much as this one and waves rode the boundary that stalled in our area. freezing rain made it to Lee and Scott County at southern extent. 

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba.


.

Yeah, it really is causing alot of anguish among Snow lovers . 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas.  We need that block to get overrunning in E TN.  Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years.  They broke the snow drought there.  E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not.  In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology.  February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good.  The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY.  Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think.   Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast.  I simply used ENSO climatology.

We were fortunate here to do good Winter before last with right at 30 inches of Snow. Last year wasn't too good but, alright considering Nina and thanks to the March Storm.

     This Winter so far has only produced 2.4" Total. So, barring a major storm or something unforseen or unexpected, another below average Snow Season. 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We actually have some pretty big pressure hitting the coast of Alaska today, and it's so warm out.. feels like 50. If the -PNA/+NAO that these LR models are showing verifies it will be 60s/70s

^look how this is kind of a 180*/from today, and it's still so warm out. Pressure breaching the N. Pacific is definitely a staple of this time. 

(I still think there is a +PNA signal 2nd week of February, will be interesting to see how this evolves.)

Yeah, many have punted mid Feb as very mild due to lrg and MJO warm phase forecast by most guidance. Hopefully, MJO avoids those phases then . Would be our luck to get a + PNA then and the MJO foul us up then.

     It's just that type Winter. 

2 hours ago, windycutter said:

On the above gif, It appears that the High comes in to late with a low pushing through the north of New England. Wouldn't the Low be problematic?

Regardless of what precip field that's showing, verbatim that's high elevation mountains heavy snow NC and VA . Thickness appears to be shown as ab out 543 in those area's. As long as 850 is 0 to -2T C. . 

     Of course, does most of us no good. Hopefully, more cold will be injected than modeled. 

50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For me, this winter is a carbon copy of the last three.  Chances during December along w/ severe cold.  Then, it was a battle from that point onward, but not without opportunities.   I think for folks west of the Plateau, this winter (still been better than mine) has been similar to what E TN has seen for three straight seasons.  That may be why E TN folks are somewhat apathetic to warmer temps and fewer chances.  

 

Taking a look at next season, the QBO should be dropping and that is big.  Right now it is rising, and very few good winters in TN correlate to a rising QBO.  In fact, most great winters correlate to -QBOs.   The wild card is just how strong that Nino is going to be.  If it is a super Nino, my winter forecast will be AN(or much above) for the entire season.  If it is a weak Nino, then we have chances during Jan-Feb especially.  What I am excited about is that summer should not be hot and dry like it was w/ La Nina.  On the negative side, that could mean that spring will be delayed.  I am hopeful that the cold gradient laid down by three straight Nina winters will help to accentuate Nino climatology instead of wash it out as the previous Nino was.  Also, I do suspect that we see an increased number of -NAO years, including next winter.  That is a good combination as the NAO emphatically gave us our coldest part of the season this winter.  

 

As for the rest of winter, I think we have chances next week.  Then, we see a BIG warm-up.  See the very first post of this thread.  It shouldn't be a shock.  Of comfort, sometimes when I call for a big warm-up...it does the opposite.  So, I am not changing my tune and maybe we get some reverse mojo.  I do think we have one last window from the last week of February through mid-March...then a full on break towards spring....

Spot on with that Post Carver ! Weak Nino is always our best shot at a cold/snowy Winter. Weak Nina's can be decent but, strong either way is killer.

Yeah, with that boundary setting up in the vicinity Model's will have fluctuation's on what side we're on and what precip. Hopefully, the cold press is enough to allow for predominately snow. If we can score just one good one the way this winter has been, I'll be satisfied....well, somewhat, lol

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nah.  12z update.... The CMC is a pretty bad ice event for middle and west.  The GFS is a nice 2-4" slider for much of the state north of I-40.  With so little agreement....I think we are all just chilling and waiting for some agreement.  Here are a few snapshots. The models are consistent within their own runs but now with each other....

 

Meant to mention that event Carvers. Guess I was looking on down the road a bit,lol.  Let's hope GFS is right regarding this one. Several on the MA forum are talking about GFS showing 2mT above freezing during the event. It actually is for most of the area. However, i'm not buying that as T should srop as precip falls at a decent rate. Of course, snow can accumulate above freezing if rates are heavy enough too.

Here ya go:

i wouldnt fret it as i think the cold will press more. 

23 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Judging by the activity in here I get the feeling that next weeks system is going poof

warmth

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My “hopium” take is that the models may not be showing this now, but as a wave (in actual reality, not modeled reality) approaches the east coast with all those record warm waters, it’ll get more amped and draw the cold air in on the backwside.

Again, a dose of hopium. Maybe just because I’m in a good mood as we’re about to head to the mountains soon. 

Hope ur right. If not, and this keeps up the rest of the season, we'll need plenty Opium. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hope so, the snow it shows falls at ~35*.  But the larger issue remains. Even when there is snow with these waves it’s a relatively small geographic area with marginal temps. 

Yeah, agree on those issues. This is pretty much the most disappointing Winter in my life and I'm an Antique.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Today's guidance took a step back towards a problem that to me is the biggest limiting factor in this setup and has been a repetitive issue recently.   Lack of interaction between moisture associated with the southern stream and the cold associated with the northern stream.  

I've been mentioning this for years...it was a HUGE problem in 2021 when we had blocking and storm after storm took a perfect track.  I think it gets less attention when we are in periods with a bad storm track because so much else is wrong that we don't pay attention...but this has been a theme for a while now and its a big problem.  Last night we saw some improvement with this but today the guidance seems back to not having any interaction between streams.  

That is what leads to this..

Wave 1 Where is the snow??? look at the pathetic "win" zone

Wave 2

Again where is the win there?  

Wave 3 

And its not just a here problem...the next wave isn't even close for us but it wouldn't matter what the track was because look...

There is really very little to no snowfall with most of the waves, and this has been a theme a lot of the time recently.  

The GFS shows a bit more snow but if you look closer its probably a faulty artifact of its faulty cold bias in the thermals and a liberal precip type algorithm.

  Because look at the surface temps on the GFS when that 2-4" of snow is supposed to be falling to our south.  It's 34-38 degrees and that is on a model with a cold bias.  The CMC precip type output is likely closer to reality if that is the actual track and interaction between streams.  

Not enough attention is being pain, IMO, to this.  It's a big part of our struggles in recent years.  We should not see wave after wave in January and February with virtually no snow on the northern side of the track at the mid latitudes.  When there is almost no snow until you get north of 40* with any wave...well...thats kinda a problem for us given our latitude!  

They actually corrected the cold bias with the last "upgrade". From what i've heard that since that upgrade it has somewhat of a warm bias; they overcorrected.

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Using the totally valid metric of clown maps, it's pretty easy to see the potential for next week. Nothing crazy, but a statewide 1 to 3 inches doesn't sound unreasonable. I haven't dug in, so I don't how much of this is ice or sleet, but still a winter event regardless. Just need to get a little more southern jog to get the whole state.  The trend is good on the GFS! 

Yeah. Has Total of 4-8 the 2 waves combined for parts of area. So, hopefully it pans out and we'll be somewhat satisfied considering the terrible fate of this winter so far. 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Main thing I see is AN heights over Alaska and a very cold NA continent.  There are some AN heights over the pole.  

Yeah. The -NAO signal's not there. 

I'm thinking the Strat delay effect may be what the Weeklies could be factoring in along with it's Model runs having the MJO in cold phase or COD.

  I would think maybe it's keying on Blocking, particularly since it depicts coldest anomalies out west and they look to slide east. However, it doesn't look that way by the looks around Greenland. Still could possibly be during some of that timeframe. 

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling.  MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan).   Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE.  I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies.  

Yeah, JB is actually very good with teleconnections and all facets of the field actually. He just, as we know, wears cold glasses and let's that sway him many times. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

So Jan-Feb 96 defied the warm MJO phases?  That was a Nina year as well I think....

Yeah. The main reason may of been strong blocking though. 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct.  That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it.  They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days.  I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month.  That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection.  That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO.  I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that.  I can't remember.  If someone remembers, let me know.

'96 I think. Although there were mild interludes, they were short lived 

The Ohio Valley is really going to cash in before this Winter is over by the looks of things. Kentucky may be the big Winner next week within our area.

     Kentucky was the jackpot during the January '94 ice/Snowstorm. Northern KY reported 2 feet of Snow. SE KY reported 10" in Harlan. Most of the State received over a foot ! 

Recorded a dusting overnight. Light snshwrs and periods of steady light snow has been falling through the Morning but, melts as temp Is above freezing now(33.9). There's measurable Snow above 2000ft. 

GooFuS is just that... GooFuS.