Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

Yeah really. Forcing from one side to the other. 

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

Not a pessimist nor optimist but, a realist 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

Yeah, exactly. 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th.  It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal.  Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run.  Still there today.  That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think.   Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March.  Do I believe them?  Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences.  I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO?  Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases.  Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?

The JMA also has cold Jan-Mar. Of course that's been par for the course with it so, that's that but, with added support from other guidance maybe it's onto something.  Glaam going to be going extremely positive. That's typical Nino response right there and also as Larry Chuck noted in the main forum a cold SE signal. The intensity is whether general Nino cool south or a cold SE apparently irt the glaam. 

    The Coz may still be in his game as you mentioned. Dare to say, if guidance continues that way even JB may be looking better. A little late but, not denied maybe.  We've gotta give you credit here too Carver, you called the flip in mid January ans backloaded early on. If it's early Jan... Still a great call. I'm with on that now and think we still have back and forth mainly due to those SST's still supportive if MJO warm Ph passes. If those were cooler we'd be in big time business imo. 

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

Yeah, it would. Basically canonical Nino. Maybe someone will do the work and post a map. 

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job.  I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year.  It would start about the Greenville exit.  My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.  

Yeah, great Winter up here. Miller b/  miller A hybrids, Miller B transfer's. Wise set VA Seasonal Snowfall Record that Winter. 123.4". Still stands. 

9 hours ago, griteater said:

Dec 11 - Thoughts on the upcoming pattern with Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic focus...

Sure looking that way right now. Terrible for Winter wx enthusiasts. 

Cohen has an update on the PV stretching. Odd behavior if correct. 

36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

Yeah, remember flower bushes blooming in January, lol. Hopefully,the Strat will throw a good monkey wrench into that horrible pattern if that happens. Who knows, Strat may be messing with guidance now. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies now have a trough in the West to start January.  LOL.  Cosgrove mentioned a thaw was coming mid-January.  Aren't we going to have to go in the freezer first before we have a thaw?  LOL.  You all know that I like LC...but I did chuckle when I read that. I will say in LC's defense that he has been adamant that this winter would be better than the last, but that winter really wouldn't get going until late January...and I mean adamant. 

Coz is a bit uneasy as well now i think.

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That track on the 12z GFS should be an epic winter storm Dec-Feb but we can't get any cold air. I think we had a similar event in 2017-18ish. Whichever year it was that the gulf got snow storms and we couldn't even with a perfect track a few weeks later. 

Yep. Rather frustrating brother. I recall the monster storm in Feb 73. Clouds is all we got while Ga, SC and NC got hammered. Also, I remember the Deep South getting clocked then the next system would go north and we'd get rain. Happened a good bit in the early to mid 70's I recall. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Tagging onto Holston's great post(post of the year worthy) about the jet extension...the MA has a great discussion this afternoon about the same post.  I encourage everyone who isn't a met to read them(Holston's and the MA).  That extension originally would have led to a nice -EPO and +PNA.  What modeling missed was that it was going to almost hit an extreme level which caused the Aleutian low to become stronger, and it formed a massive GoA low which will cause the chinook.  Long story short, modeling is showing a retraction of that jet, and that should allow for a more typical Aleutian low placement/intensity, and consequently by early January, allow for BN heights in the SE(reference Brooklyn's post there...and paraphrased).   Some strong posters basically noted it was less of the normal can-kicking and mentioned that there were good reasons for this delay, but that it was only a delay of about a week.

Agree on Holstons Post. That's a Pin worthy if there ever was. 

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Remember this is only December 11th. Try to remain optimistic. Hopefully mother nature will give us our opportunity at cold and snow this winter but it definitely will be a while. 

Yeah, I know. Just a bit irritated over the stretch we've gone through I suppose. In my long life I've lived through good streaks and bad one's. Forecasted back before a host of Model's were available as well new research information. We've came a long way but, there's times not much better. So many variables, minute factors that morph and become major player's in a relatively short time. Monkey Wrenches is a good term for them. 

     Regardless of knowing these things, I always hated to fail in forecasting. I'm sure we all are pretty much that way. 

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They are definitely on the table if extended LR modeling is even halfway correct.  I tend to think we get the "good" El Nino, but can-kicking is usually the first sign that winter is not going as planned.  And this recent can-kick was a big one...if indeed it was a can kick.  Still wouldn't surprise me to see modeling come back around to a better solution at 500 patterns by just after Christmas.  Cold air is still way out there iMO.

It's about to the point to where I feel I'll be lucky to see an even Average Winter again considering my antiquity and agw along with SST'S continually working against us overall. Lol. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

For your region, I think Nino climatology works against you during most years.  I don't think you will eat crow on this one.

The 6-8 week rule is generally a good one.  I will probably start the clock on this one when it started raining a couple of weeks ago.  So, the second or third week of January should be a shake-up to that run.  Now, if the November rule is in play this winter...the shake-up could very well lead to an even warmer pattern during the second half of winter.  Let's hope 2000s Nino climatology wins out, and we see winter during the second half.  Those terrible Nino winters of the 90s had many mowing their yards by late January or earlier.  

Yeah, let's hope the '94-95 and 97-98 one's in particular doesn't come back to haunt us. 

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. 

Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now:

 

Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after

 

 

 

Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada.

All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so.

Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US:

 

 

It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. 

One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching:

 

It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off. 

 

Right on the money with analysis I believe. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, no winter cancel stuff from me.  Other forums have plenty of those folks.  Heck some of them are canceling multiple winters to quote one poster.  LOL.

I think we are 3-4 weeks out(minimum) from anything that even resembles a decent pattern.  That said, I do think it is highly plausible that modeling is in extreme error in plotting the MJO.  For several of the past winters, modeling just assumes the MJO is going to crash into the COD when in reality it kept on making the turn.  I do think modeling completely mistook the current MJO, and was in error in not taking it into 4-6.  I believe it is also making the same mistake for 7-2, meaning it is trying to go low amplitude or not at all while in cold phases (the same error it made during warm phases).  I would suspect we see a correction in LR modeling during the upcoming week.  In some ways, the Euro Weeklies began that adjustment this evening.  The consequence of the MJO miscalculation is that modeling brought cold too quickly.  Now the consequence is that is maybe muting a significant cold shot just after the New Year.  We will see.

The 12z GEFS looks great at 500...just don't look at temp anomalies.  

Exactly my take now Brother. As you mentioned earlier, we still have a shot or two of getting something by Christmas in lower elevations. Hopefully, we get some of that cold from Eastern Canada or at least System manufactured from aloft to get it done.

     It's still rather heartbreaking to see that 500 pattern and it be too warm in December !! 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As we wake up this morning to the news from Middle TN, I would like to express my condolences to those communities.  I think @PowellVolz said it best earlier this past week, when you see that hatch posted that early, you know it has the potential to be bad.

As for the long range, I will keep it short.  Weeklies modeling are very likely going to bust both on temps and at 500 for late December and most of January.  I do think winter makes its appearance for late January into February, but that idea is less certain now.  A back loaded winter fits climatology.  However, as others have noted, 97-98 is on the table.  Now oddly, two of those warm winters during the late 90s produced two separate heavy snow events - one in Kingsport and one in Johnson City.  Neither city saw the same snow amounts as the other.  

One thing to consider as well, if LR modeling was wrong for weeks on end...it could be wrong now.  However, synoptically, the big area of LP in the eastern Pac is the problem.  When that feature shows up on winter modeling, it is a huge problem and often degrades very slowly.  A massive Chinook is likely to scour all BN temps from Canada.  Now that doesn't mean Canadian AN temps equal AN temps here as that air is sometimes jettisoned southward by rainy coastal storms along the US EC.   AN Canadian air masses are still cold in TN.  For now, I don't see a SER in place, but I don't see air masses which can seed winter storms at lower elevations.  It is possible that storms can produce their own cold in the northwest quadrant if the storm is strong enough though.

Windows for storms with very marginal temperature profiles are roughly Dec 17th and maybe Christmas Eve.  I expect those to have rain in the valleys, but that is a guess.  The mountains could do ok.

As for when/if cold returns to Canada.....it is going to take several weeks IF the chinook unfolds as modeled.  That will erase snowpack and cold.   If this was a La Nina winter, I would say the game is up, even this early in the winter.  However, El Nino winters have a nasty habit of showing up right as winter seems over.  I suspect this is the case.

One last note, modeling has been abysmal at recognizing that the MJO is taking the tour.  It keeps trying to dive the MJO into the COD.  The MJO so far has shown higher amplitude than originally forecast.  If that is the case at the moment, modeling may be completely blind to cold showing up later this month....

For now, we will rely on storm track and marginal air masses.  That can work, but it ain't easy!

Looks like Eastern Canada will have a heavy Snow pack at least. If we can get ca drainage from there into storm systems riding up, may be cold enuff to get it done. 

32 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

New HRRR is more reasonable 

Yeah. Not near the rain totals originally slated for much of the area either. Trough too positive tilt. 

Several news sources video's up on YouTube. Traffic cam captures of Tornadoes and substations blowing. 

2 hours ago, Silas Lang said:

I don't really understand how the front catches up east of the mountains with precipitation when it seems like oftentimes fronts can slow down and get hung up on the plateau. I am assuming it has something to do with storm dynamics or low placement? 

Turning neutral tilt too late possibly. 

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah wouldn't be surprised if this a late bloomer as a weak lee side low tries to develop up the spine of the Apps. Anyone East of I75 above 2000' (1500' north of I40) may be in for a surprise.

Hope ur right. As of now, pretty much all models are getting it going too far East to benefit the Valley and Plateau. I'm hoping things trend West. 

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely.

Yeah, the rest has anafrontal development further East. Hopefully they're off and it occurs sooner further west but, hopes are down for now. 

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Currently battling a bout of strep throat at the moment, so I’ve been out of it. 
 

Biggest story will be the abundance of moisture with the system which will help get some much needed water into the region to curb the drought. Not a bad thing heading into winter. 
 

As for snow, system is very dynamic, but will come down to the low-mid lvl CAA regime as the storm matures and rolls into occlusion phase. I don’t buy the crazy totals the NAM is implying, but there’s a decent chance many of us see some flakes this go around with light accumulations possible across areas along and north of I-70. Details can change over time, but this isn’t a textbook moderate snowfall for our area, but it’s one where people can get on the board. 
 

Idk if I’ll ever have any forecast for this one, so I’ll follow along and chime in when I can. Strep sucks. That is all 

That's rough stuff ! I hope/ pray for a speedy recovery. 

If this were to pan out, Radiancewx and a couple other's would already have busted on the Seasonal Totals they are forecasting.