Daniel Boone

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point.  Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th.  I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

I agree with you wholeheartedly with this . In actuality, i'm confident of measurable snow even in Valley Locations south to I-40 and quite possibly further South. Alot of cold waiting in the wings with transporting Driver's aligning. Also, STJ has been pretty juicy and the real possibility of Miller A Cyclogenesis exists, imo...

43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly

Same here. 

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

Good post and point. The deepness of that western trough is a real monkeywrench. Hopefully, we can at least get a ridge over top and cut it off.

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Wash, rinse, repeat:
n

Yeah, same ol bs this poor excuse of a Winter. 

8 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I WANT A RECOUNT HAHA

Problem is the recount would be done by the heat miser. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro is a nice pass on the 12z run.  Eastern valley gets just enough of a warm nose.  But if we can't have it, am I wrong to hope that it rains in the MA as well since they have complained all winter to the n-th degree?  

Yeah, they'll get theirs with this blocking episode. It'll be us and the SE that'll probably wind up with the least snowy winter on record. 

4 hours ago, Scraff said:

That won’t even cover my grass blades. I’ll pass. 

Maybe if you mow it before.. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

IF that 50/50 signal is real its a great trade off since that feature is one of the main positives of a -NAO anyways...and often it lingers beyond the collapse of the NAO which is why often some of our big storms come AFTER blocking...like Jan 96.  

Fact !!! 

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Does this winter leave like a lion or a lamb? Here I sit at 1300' on the plateau at 6:30 am on Feb 23. The temps are in the mid 60s - lower 70s. The old old folks used to say we had to pay for this kind of weather in winter? Will we this year? 

Yeah,  j just about guarantee it. Usually a predominately mild Winter progresses to a cold Spring.  I don't know what the statistical odds are, maybe someone that feels up to it can look it up. Also, this Year has more going for that as well, due to the SSW, waning Nina and ensuing Nino. 

76.3 High. 44.2 Low

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with the SST's being a big part of the problem but I think its more general than a specific 50/50 issue.  We have had about 5 blocks since the last time one really worked, and that was even marginal, March 2018.  In some of them the fail was that there was no 50/50 and a WAR.  But there have been several where we did have a 50/50 and the SER linked up with the -NAO to the west of the 50/50 anyways.  Basically the SER bullied the 50/50, forcing it east slightly, then linked up behind it.  The problem is simple...the warmth is winning in the equation.  The suppressive effects of the NAO are still there... if you look you can see it...but its not winning ENOUGH to get the boundary south of us as much of the time.  We are still struggling even during blocking lately.  As for why... we should discuss that over in the other thread probably.  

Yeah, see what ur saying and yeah, other factor's at play as well. Canada is pretty cold now so, hopefully that'll assist in the suppressing this go around. It may be just the sheer strength of the SER and Trugh deepness out west doing much of it. Of course, that moves on to chicken and egg, cause and effect.

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

The advertised longwave pattern is conducive for an inland track with a secondary coastal low instead of a straight up cutter. The thermal boundary is closer to the coast for this period, which has not been the case much of the time this winter. Plus there is a very favorable look in the NA.

Yeah, it's showing at least somewhat of a 50-50. Question is, will it hold though ?

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if we are in another long term -PDO, and if like the last one the pacific is going to be in this base state for almost all of the next 30 years...what exactly do we need to snow now then?  Because a -NAO is how we overcame that pacific last time we had a long term -PDO.  We didn't get snow in that era because the pacific was helpful...we got snow in spite of a hostile pac almost all the time.  But the problem I see now is, since this current PDO flip...the things that worked last time are not working the same way now.  

I agree so, let's look elsewhere. Global warming ?, QBO? , Warm Atlantic SST's ?...Those NW Atlantic SST's are ,imo, the problem irt getting the usual accompaning 50-50 Low. Therefore, allowing the SER and -NAO hookup.

Here's another that's my favorite from Truckee : 

Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

Truckee, Ca. getting slammed again. Go west young man !

MtHardware (tahoeweathercam.com)

Truckee Ca getting slammed again.

MtHardware (tahoeweathercam.com)

44 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something. 

 

Yeah, need some serious underwater Volcano activity in crucial areas of the Pacific. 

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. 

Alaska

That's a bridge type setup, looks like. That might work .

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m pretty sure we want a +pna, but sounds like we might get enough blocking to offset it.

Sad thing is, the offset from strong blocking does work in January. Not so much so this time of year.  Northern area's still might work. We need at least a semblance of a +PNA imo.

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter.

Throw in the warm western Atlantic SST'S as well. 

Storm Total Rainfall of 3.73". 5.91" since Sunday. 

Getting mod/heavy Snowshowers now.

Light Snowshowers here currently.  Storm Total Rainfall of 3.73". 5.91" since Sunday. 

Edit: Spoke too soon. just had a mod/heavy snshr go thru.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. 

Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look:

There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east. 

November '76 I witnessed 3" diameter Flakes. More like patties as they were thick. 

Carver's, Bnawx you sound just like me, lol. Those late 70's Winter's were a snowlover's Dream !  They were long, cold and snowy. Before TWC came along I would watch every evening local TV weather cast. Sometimes I would jump from one channel to the other and catch other casts. Then came TWC and I, like Carver's would glue to it any time I could get the chance. Those were fun time's.

  I actually began my weather watching in the late 60"s. I'm an Antique. Some great Winter's then as well , in particular 1969-70. 

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

If there is any term I truly hate in professional development, it is "deep dive."  When I hear that term, it makes me want to dive under the table.  So, why am I using this term today....I am sort of making fun of the term.  Anyway, if you have a better term for dialoguing (another term I truly an uncomfortable with) about various aspects of global weather such as the PDO, AMO, IO, AO, NAO, SOI, MJO, PNA, EPO, QBO etc....I am open to suggestions.   Anyway, I thought maybe we could fire up a thread to learn.  I thought of this thread idea, because one aspect of my seasonal forecast that I forgot to include was the PDO.  And the PDO may well have been partly driving the bus this winter(and the past several in North America).  Anyway, here is an article(second link) I am working through.  So, what do you all know about the PDO, and maybe how has it been impacting NA weather?  I "think" the cold phase PDO is connected to Nina ENSO states as cold water is along the Pacific NA coastline and water water is in the north central Pacific.  The warm PDO is the exact opposite.   I am not ignorant not he subject(I do lack overall expertise on this), but I truly need to learn more about it, as I think the warmer anomaly of water over the north central Pacific is pulling the trough into the west.  And the physics of that is what I am trying to understand! How is the warm water in the north central Pac pulling that trough into the West(or is it)?

https://legacy.climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo (primer)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml (working through this article currently)

 

The -PDO in conjunction with the Atlantic SST State probably the biggest Killer's. QBO just exacerbates the problem as well.