Daniel Boone

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well.   So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

Yeah, sad. He also said the reason NWS didn't have their own Stations was funding. 

    Sad on all accounts. 

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.




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That da**ed deep western Trough. 

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

La Niña 

Exactly. Even though many have said it's been more Nino like. The La nina augmented Ridge has been very evident and potent. Other factors created a Ninoesque pattern of sorts in some area's. 

8 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Might as well talk to them about their own station. The temperature seems fine, but if you’ll notice on their webpage they never record precipitation of any kind falling. The most you’ll see is mist. It could be a thunderstorm outside and it will show mist. It’s been that way for years.

If you take a look at the MADIS and COOP station's around KTRI you can see a difference.   I spoke with the Chief Met at KMRX and he said it was about 3 degree's high . It is governed by the FAA and they allow a 4 degrees swing either side of actual with their Temp. Sensor's. NWS just uses FAA's Equipment. 

    So, there you have it. No just speculation on my part. 

    I agree in the precip reporting from some of the Official Station's. If it's Airports they're owned and governed by them unfortunately. 

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1.  February had an average of 59.1.   For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average.  Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal.  Our high was 38 degrees.  The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's.  Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable.   The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March.  I have yet to start my tomatoes.   No way they will go in the ground by late April.  I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps.  That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

I'm going to talk with KMRX about the Station at KTRI to see if they can go check it.. Pretty positive it's T readings are running too high. 

13 at my home. (Ele. 1732 ft). High yesterday was 30.

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

The map surprisingly is fairly on point for me.
I measured 4 inches and pocket change for the season barring an end season dark horse, currently flurrying with a dusting fwiw I suppose. Could've been worse.

 

Yeah, same here. 2.9" Total. So map looks pretty accurate. Least snowy on Record here. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The periods I was comparing were 2017-2023 and the previous worst 7 year period on record 1950-1956.  We most definitely will still get a snowy winter or snowier period, that wasn’t my argument.  But the snowy and non snowy periods have been getting less snowy. 

Yeah, averages and statistics prove that. 

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Work for who?  It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018.  I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to.  It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing.  But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.  

I concur on this. something definitely amiss anymore.  Original thinking was missing 50-50 along with deep western Trough. However, seems to be more to it than that. Possibly a combination of said factor's along with the Atlantic SST State. Deepness of western Trough this season I'm sure played a part. The current MJO Phase I think may play a part suppressing the System next week.

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Wow, it is isn't common to see something that suppressed in later March. I guess it is possible, but I am hoping it is a fluke.

Yeah, MJO Phase probably best equates to a suppressed solution.

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Fountain beat me to it. Not too upset to see the system vanish days 5-6. Note that WPC still has QPF those days.

I'd be happy to see the system show up again, without a mega-cut knuckle ball. Carvers STL captures that idea, lol!

Never take anything off the table in the Southeast. 

12Z Euro update. Nah, I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Spoiled NC whiners will get one on the coast. Is that even worse than the STL cut?

guarantee one or the other.

Only reached 34 here today. A dusting of snow this morning with the low of 27. 

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower.

The Ship never came. 

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

There’s actually two periods to watch in the LR, and I’ll stress that it likely favors interior with all of them. We’re gonna need a little luck in coastal plain, but not impossible. This first event we’re tracking now and then possibly a front ender type if that event forms into 50/50. The pattern is gonna kill a lot of people because It’s happening when it is.

Check out this pattern at end of GFS lol, pain.




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Yeah, if only that had setup in January or February. 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don’t think it was overly cold here either due to wind and cloud cover.  Tonight is prob going to be the roughest IMBY re: freeze.  The wind chills are pretty sharp currently though.   

Yeah, clouds and wind kept temps up some. Did manage to hit 27. If winds die and skies clear, especially if early , yeah, very cold night on tap. May hit 20 or lower some areas. 

Not alot but, at least a nice little surprise. Still flurrying. 

Temp. fell from 29 to 27.4 during that heavy snshwr. .

  I was really pulling for the weekend system as i'm afraid it may warm up a little too much for the Tuesday one. Hopefully timing will be good and cold locks in enough.

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Bonus snow!   Wind chills this morning are around 25.  It feels like the middle of winter.  Our spring sports groups were send inside yesterday by graupel.  I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL.

Coming down moderate to heavy now with a heavy dusting.. even on roads.

    Looked at Pennington gap camera and quarter sized flakes there. Still small dense ones here. 

Update: heavy snow falling about 200 yards to my east onward. Hills whited out ! 

A light dusting here. Small flakes coming down pretty good now. Steady light snow. 

Snow showers been moving through here.. Mainly Graupel 

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I will take todays wx for soccer. Low to mid 50’s is perfect for it.  My opinion to get snow in lower elevations will take a miracle.  Plus the ground temps would melt plenty of snow falling for it to overcome for it to stick. Then you have sun angle against us also.  At this point I don’t won’t any temps. close to supporting snow.  Why? It would most likely just be a very cold rain.  Hard pass on that scenario. My fescue is loving this wx. 

Your area it would be highly unlikely. Eastern areas, particularly northern sections not that unlikely. One of the biggest Snowfalls I ever witnessed occured April 2-5, 1987. I lived near Pennington gap,Lee County, VA at an elevation of 1550 ft. and recorded 30 inches on the north facing, shaded area's. I remember reaching down to the ground and it was wet underneath. Temps had been in the 70's for 2 weeks prior to the Storm. There'd easily been 4 feet had it all accumulated. In fact, 54" was recorded on High Knob near Norton.

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

The 8200' level has remained all snow. The platform is piled up with fresh snow, and the winds are blowing it around as even MORE snow continues to add to the drifts up there. Palisades Tahoe is a snow lovers' wet dream! It just keeps right on giving and it never ever lets you down! They might end up piling on another 7 feet by Tuesday night! Those webcams are a BLAST, a kind of vicarious blizzard blast! That place is nothing but unlimited happiness for ever and ever! They say the snowbase is 224 inches! Just wow! Take a gander at their snow forecast!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/snow-and-weather

And the webcams

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

Temps are DROPPING! Down to 24, now! Drop those snow levels! We need even MORE heavy snow at the Palisades! One thing I love, and cherish, is the thought of all the Palisades staff on deck, trying so hard to dig out the chairlifts, and then they get demolished by ANOTHER intense record atmospheric river of insane snow rates! Their biggest season on record is 707 in 2016-17, I think. Can we do 1000 inches at Palisades this season? I think so! Which brings up the question, Palisades resort staffers.......

CAN. YOU. DIG. IT. ?????????

It actually changed to rain in Truckee for a while today. 

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area.  It just about has that now.  

12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter.

This is not a complaint but just general amusement.  It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter.  I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past.  Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes.  I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again.  We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out.  Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog!  LOL.

The difference this time may be the MJO if the western seasonal track is bucked. Also, Nina has weakened.  Hopefully, these factors buck the seasonal trend. However, troughiness in the SW will try to continue the cutter pattern.

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

What does the high amp translate to?

Stronger Wave. Therefore greater effect on 500 mb Pattern.