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Posts posted by Daniel Boone
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3 hours ago, GaWx said:
Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…
Big difference in results with those 2 Winters too. February in particular. Feb. 2015 was spectacular.
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1 hour ago, John1122 said:
A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off.
All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.
Yeah. Marginal Temps played a part as elevated area's got clocked on several occasions during the stronger Ninos, whereas lower eles would get mix or rain, therefore creating a greater than normal difference between the Valleys and the higher elevations. As far as western areas, Nino's tend to favor Eastern irt Snow, particularly when blocking is present, imo.
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16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Great Job man !
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.
Exactly.
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:
Webb isn’t telling us what a good number of us already know regarding moderate+ El Niño climo, Feb is favored as the coldest month in terms of anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. That may also be the case in the SE US. He’s also saying that much of Dec is favored by climo to have warm anomalies, again nothing many here don’t already know. So, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.
Yeah, really. Lol. Of course to some, pretty much everyone on this forum is not nearly as knowledgeable as eric. The redtaggers are just novelty mets.
I don't disrespect Eric, he's a good Met. However, many are on here and shouldn't be disrespected either. That includes enthusiasts as well. Many are just as knowledgeable as degreed Mets.
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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:
I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state.

Yeah really. Sad how we miss Decembers of yore.
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Weeklies basically warm east/ cold west . Kicked can last couple weeks. They've not been that good lately, so probably wrong, at least as far as a week or so.
It may be those super warm SST'S off Japan that's throwing things off kilter.
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57 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:
I lived in Southaven ms back then but now I'm in jackson tn. Two weeks back to back with events and that was it
Yeah, unfortunately you guys in the western forum area missed out on much of it.
Btw, I've been in Jackson. My Sister used to live in Humboldt. Nice area. Reelfoot not far from there.
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4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:
Only way to look at is that we don't have alot of opportunities even in great winters because we are in the south. 09-10 only got two events, which I was wanting 4-5 lol
Where do you live ? We had alot of events here in 09-10.
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6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:
Hopefully we don't go down 94-95 pathway anytime soon. Another warm winter
Yep. I'm hoping not. Severe Storms in January that Winter.
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9 hours ago, John1122 said:
Barely had misty sprinkles here so far. Hopefully it doesn't die out before we can get at least 1/4th inch.
The November temperature outlook is deeply depressing for my winter loving self. We can still have a snowy winter after a warm November but the odds favor it going the other way. I hope we can get a few more rain events just to get the fire danger in the rear view.
Yeah, definitely not looking good irt November correlation. Many esp. MA see December as main one. Stats show November here. Not many went on to be Great Winters when November was mild. -94-95 starting to stick out again. Only good aspect to it was abundance of rain . It was backloaded but, only received several minor snowfalls of generally an inch or less in February. March did produce a Rain to Thundersnow event with a general 4 to 12" in far SWVA. Up to 18" reported in portions of Harlan and Letcher Co. KY.
Just off memory, my Season Total was around 8". Paltry but, not like last Winter's 2.7.
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4 hours ago, strongwxnc said:
Thanks! I’ll figure it out when the time comes.
.Nice Unit ! I hope everything goes smoothly.
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2 hours ago, strongwxnc said:
I plan on upgrading my home weather station (current is Ambient 2902-A and moving to a Ambient 5000) and I was wondering if I can keep my same CWOP info that I have used for the last few years. Or If i will have to create a new one.
Anyone got experience with this?
https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=G1106
You can keep same.
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23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
Yeah I have my doubts about any real meaningful rainfall over the next 10 or so days.
Yeah, it's really depressing to say the least. Forest fires are really smoking up the air. Really messing up my Sinuses.
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2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:
We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year

?? We were referring to patterns. If a pattern was exactly same as late 70s in how it would still be below normal in today's climate. Otherwise, could go either way as far as winter. HLB I think is our main ticket we need this year.
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16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:
@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable
I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter
Yeah, definitely more evidence.
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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:
The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb.
1870s – 25.21880s – 27.61890s – 26.51900s – 24.91910s – 25.51920s – 25.81930s – 28.31940s – 27.01950s – 28.61960s – 26.21970s – 24.81980s – 25.91990s – 29.22000s – 27.72010s – 28.21874-2021 – 27.0Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised.
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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:
Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is.
And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol
Not only them but, several pro mets here as well. I don't know why you are so hellbent on going against everyone here that sees things differently. Granted, it could go either way at this juncture. Minus blocking , that latest update Apparently, you want a mild Winter. Your liking, nothing wrong with that.( With economic problems, would be a good thing itr). If not, why want to go all out against those who would like to see at least an average one after so many mild one's ?
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3 hours ago, CAPE said:
The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.
Roundy rounder will be making his rounds

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2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:
The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts
The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso.
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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:
I'm thinking Nino forcing finally makes a stand. MEI would hint at something less than strong from the pure ENSO, which would be helpful in many parts of our Region.
For temperatures. Roll a pair of dice. Or see Winter Spec. I actually found a bullish story this week (for now at least).Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere.
Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar.
I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes.
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Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo.
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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:
14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.
Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but...
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-
I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's.
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Winter 2023-24 Forecast
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Good work man !