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Daniel Boone

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

    Long story short...think suppressed is the ultimate outcome currently

    Yeah, may wind up with a 73 type deal before said and done . Although, probably not due to forcing from MJO and warmer Atlantic SST's than then probably creating a SER of sorts trying to fight back. In this case, may be a good thing for us. 

    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

    As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero.  Just a brutal air mass next week.  I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling.  The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover.  If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with....

    Hopefully, things will go the snow way for us. Forget the cold without the snow. 

        I can remember some 1970's Winter's that did just that. Dumped all around us. We'd get flurries at the end as the cold would move in , it would warm up and rain then same. Those were generally cutter Winter's with no blocking for the most part , however. Although 72-73 , 73-74 and 74-75 had Storms just miss us. 72-73 had the huge one go way South. The other's OV and MA cashed in. NC did decent in the last 2. Cad. The good thing is only one was a Nino. 

     So, even in that Climate Era things just went wrong for us. The way the Ball bounces sometimes.

    On the bright side, the majority of Nino Winters produced well for us , particularly in the normal Great Valley screw zone. 

         

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Just now, PowellVolz said:

    Was Christmas 2020 anafrontal? What I remember the most is a few days later, WATE Ch 6 gave themselves an “A-“ critique of their forecast. They predicted 1” and parts of Knoxville (my area) ended up with around 6”. They said the trailing energy which produced 90% of the snow “came out of nowhere” and that’s why they missed it. emoji23.png….. the wave that rode the front was on the mods for days before. Cams were spitting out 3-6” at least 48 hours before it started. emoji1750.png


    .

    It was anafrontal. 

    • Like 2

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

    I don't remember cold fronts being this strong during El Nino winters...maybe 09-10?  That is almost a La Nina set-up.  How close is the GFS to a '96 look?  Does it need to be flatter further east or just a bigger wave on the front and slower?

    Yeah, got alot of '96 look there. Btw, take a look at MJO Ph 5 Nino 500 look. Very similar to the 15-20 Euro Depiction. However, blocking is stronger than the composite therefore the colder further south look on the Model.

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

    0z GFS with a 963mb Low over northern Ohio/southern MI at 132hrs-if you thought the wind was going to be a problem with the system tomorrow! Wow! That low on this run strengthens into a hurricane blizzard for the Ohio valley! I’m surprised there wasn’t more wraparound precip even here with that solution! That was crazy! And, yep, that would definitely pull some cold air down geeze.

    Yeah, looks like a full fledged Blizzard for the western OV and Midwest. 

    • Like 2

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    This is gonna be a wild ride.  The 18z EPS...not a bad trend.  The MA has some discussion about it.  Moves the trough around 150...further eastward.  Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues.

    Further East should be better, at least irt the Cold push into the area and squashing the SER. May serve to cause suppression but, I'd take my chances on further East. 

    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    I don't like the '59 analog, even though it fits nearly perfectly w/ this past anomalous dry Sept/Oc.   During future winters, I may start looking at a correlation between precip during Sept/Oct and winter.

    My mistake. Somehow mixed up with 58. 2 duds that way, 59 and 04.

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    The good thing about that loop....it appears to push the MJO more quickly through the warmer phases.  It is less of a crawl.  It only takes 7 days to get across 4 and 5 instead of 15 as some previous models runs had it.  It makes me think that time in warm phases will be short lived.

    Also, relatively low Amp looks like. We can handle that with good blocking I think.

    • Like 2

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    Models are feeling the MJO this morning.   It will be interesting to see if they continue trending that way today.  They have the MJO rolling into phase 4 by the 15th.  By the 21st, modeling(running on about a 7 day lag) has a ridge in the East.  So, I think our window is reasonably set.  From Jan 14-21st.....that is the first real window and probably need to focus on that last storm in the series.   Of note, the Euro ext rolls that ridge right on through, and it gets cold after about a week of what will likely be a welcomed warm-up.

    Whew! The 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS got colder last night.  Their ensemble snow means(GEPS/GEFS) are much stronger today for the entire state.  The 0z EPS is warmer(not crazy warmer or anything like that) so that is something to watch.  

    Operational modeling was off-and-on a bit warmer overnight.  However, we are seven days out from what is likely the first cold front to roll through.  The core of cold air arrives about 5 days after that - I think(I probably should go back and check).  I still think it wise to let the ensembles lead this.  

    As a final note, when extremely cold air is forecast for the United States....modeling(especially operationals) are going to bounce around all over the place.  As a general rule, I think modeling tends to very much underestimate how far surface level cold advances.  Beware of ice.

    The ice thing is what has me concerned. I started to touch on that last night. Many times when an Arctic airmass dives into the west then gradually presses east and southeastward you get an an off and on stall as waves ride the front and the SER fights against it. If my memory serves me correctly, many if the Ice occurences in our area were also during warm ph MJO Periods.

    I can remember the OV getting lambasted with Heavy Snow while we just got cold enough for freezing rain with ultimately no Snow and a very modified glancing blow of what was a huge Arctic Airmass I think in January if 89 or 90. Wish I hadn't lost my Records. 

        Let's hope this doesn't come to a scenario like that. 

    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

    See the post right above the one you just posted....

    Yeah, I think most know to take that type of run with a grain of salt, but I don't discount it(just think it is highly unlikely).  I should note that isn't the only model to show that type of extreme during that past few days.  So, if the GFS is wrong, it won't be alone.  The CMC and Euro control have both had some crazy cold runs.   The CMC had a 1074 high at 12z.  It is very rare for an extreme of that nature to verify, but it is not without precedent in NE TN w/ snowfall present.  So, I wouldn't say it is unrealistic.  It has happened before, and likely will occur again.  We have seen that type of cold here a few times in my lifetime - 85, 94, 96, and I am sure I am missing several years.   That said...just last December('22) modeling portrayed -30 to -40 below zero wind chills here(over snowless ground), and nailed every bit of it.  

    In 1985, it hit -24F where I lived.  Wind chills were off the cart.  I was under my house trying to thaw out pipes.  I probably sat it a K-Mart parking lot helping my dad change an alternator around that time as well.  It was brutal. 

    And I should add, that it isn't just modeling currently showing those extremes.  The CPC has used 1994, 1996, and 1985 in their analog packages during the past few days.  Maybe those are GFS generated.  IDK.  

    I will always say that to be right in the weather, always bet against the extreme - always.  One will rarely be wrong.  I can concur with that, and that is true now as well.  We will for sure know more during the coming days.  Moderation is usually the trend, and we know that.  But...there is nothing on any model run that I would consider unrealistic.  Highly unlikely?  Absolutely, and we know that.  Without precedent? No. Though, they do flirt w/ all-time record lows....they are sill within reason of the region's most extreme weather.  Honestly, those wind chills are similar to what many experienced in December of '22.

     

    February 20, 2015 is another for your list . 20-25 below in Mountain Valleys with deep Snow pack here in Lee County. Pennington gap recorded -20 officially. So, yeah not unrealistic. That was late Winter ! 

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

    My memory is blurry, but which winter was it when we last had some back to back storms? 2015, 2014, 2013? Sort of reminds me of that. I was in Johnson City at the time and it seemed like there was a year when I was at ETSU where there were a few big events with some small upslope, snow shower stuff peppered in between. Probably the last "great" snow winter I experienced. 

    February 2015 was from Kingsport North and West. 2014 was pretty much forum wide, at least most. 

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