Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan

Yeah, agree. As of now, I think we have a decent shot at a White Christmas actually. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z 12kNAM puts down 5-10” (Kuchera) of snow in the eastern mountains.  Looks elevation dependent - WxBell algorithm.

Yeah, I think that's one of the reasons  the Nams up and down on Totals. T profile aloft and 2m along with surface T estimate. Rates will be a factor. Hopefully comes in a bit colder and quiker than currently progged and Rates are high so, we lower elevation folks can score. 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The best thing about LR guidance is almost a complete absence of the SER.

Yeah man !!! Big change from recent years.

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we see a really good winter.  I just wanted to get everyone ready for great 500 maps which have poor source regions.  Some of our best winters started late.   Some of our worst winters took the same path (warm start) and never started.  LOL.  
 

The storm track itself is what has me encouraged.  The WAR gives me pause as almost all LR modeling missed it completely.  So, we have a fox(WAR) in the henhouse, and I proceed carefully when I see it.  But generally, that creates an SSW.   The strat just gets hammered.  Almost all extended ensembles remove the WAR by the middle of the last week of December.  I think we have to wait on the really cold air until January.  That fits climatology - decent 500 pattern but marginal cold.

I do think our patience will be rewarded.

Good post and points man. Storm track is encouraging and the war actually appears to maybe be a bit east of the last bad years with it. SST's are somewhat different along the coast than previous times. The STJ probably will help keep it further East also wouldn't you think ? 

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14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've just been spending a lot of time (probably moire than is healthy) in the main forum El Nino discussion thread watching the folks in there to see where they think things are going to fall out. I think it started out as a ENSO discussion but has kind of e- or de-volved (depending on your perspective) into a tropical forcing/ pattern progression thread. as I see it there are roughly two sides:

The bluewave/ snowman19 group who think that, to paraphrase Eric Webb from a month or so ago, that a hostile Pac jet, amped up by some sort of death standing wave in MJO phases 4/5/6, will pop an Aleutian so far east it will flood the CONUS with Pac puke. 
The 40/70 Benchmark/ brooklyn99/ griteater group who think a warm December is par for the course, but this will not be like 2015/16 winter (an analogue some of the other group seem to like). They think, like the ensembles/ monthlies/ seasonals are showing, that the Pac will be less hostile and assume a canonical Nino look, like many others have said elsewhere, as we move into early Jan. 

 

The above discussion is getting a tad testy sometimes (what can I say, its the internet, I like to watch). While the above summaries may be somewhat over simplified from what the above people are arguing, there seem to be a "we torch more often than not" group and a "decent Nino coming" group. 

I was just prompted to post the earlier comment since I know Daniel Boone has been somewhat active in that thread as an endorser (at least to my mind) of the 40/70 benchmark/ griteater/ brooklyn99 group and it seemed like he might be leaning more Bluewavey with the comment about the IO and the MJO.

Dan, didn't mean anything bad by it, just poking the bear a little so to speak. 

All this is probably a little bantery, but I have found the above discussion a useful supplement from a seasonal perspective. Who among us isn't a little gun shy after all the recent La Ninas, neutrals, and a weak Nino though?  It seems like everything is coming to a head with the current MJO wave. Does it spend more time that forecast in the 4/5/6 phases? Or does it continue strongly into the west Pac to and past the dateline? Does something totally unexpected happen? Can I type a little longer until the 18z GFS is finished running? Probably not. 

Right now I am with the 40/70, brooklyn99, griteater, and dare I say Carver's Gap group and think this is definitely a different beast from 15/16, but I guess we'll see how it goes. 

Lol. Yeah, you summed it up perfect over there. I'm actually leaning a decent Winter snowwise overall, even December ftm as I've alluded to before.. Have just began to see some truth to the Bluewave argument regarding the MJO and the problem the 500 MB has had characteristically as compared to Years with similar Enso as the WPAC/ IO are so warm it clearly shows a response . Domino effect west to East. Hopefully, the sure strength of the Nino and HLB can off set the forcing from that broad very warm SST Area. The fear in my mind would be an Alaskan Vortex in place of Aleutian LP. If HLB strong enough , that would keep that on back in the Aleutians. That's what I'm rooting for as a counter along with mainly Central based Nino forcing . ( in laymen's terms).

MJO seems to want to redevelop in IO as it starts to come out into wpac. Is there a huge underwater Volcano in the IO or something !?! I mean.. geeze. . 

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Maybe I don’t pay attention enough but I can’t remember a trough just completely collapsing on the backside like this. I can anyone explain why this happened?


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Fast flow coming into PNW looks  like the problem; just shoving things along. 

Man !, so sorry that you went through all that . That's just unreal ! Thank God you're healing. Praying for a complete recovery. 

43 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Hmm... this humpback look is how we score with this.

Yeah, neutral tilt . Be nice if goes negative after reaching our longitude. Either way, Neutral should still have decent backside. Archumbault may be at play here. 

Had some heavy Snow Showers make it to Valleys. Accumulation mainly 2000 ft and above. Eyeballing estimate of 1-2 inches on top of Wallen Ridge at 3000 ft just south of Pennington gap. Received report of 2-3" Sandy Ridge section of Wise County. 

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah this weekend feels so close but so far. Need that low reformation to happen a bit further south. Some of the gefs members show some action. Touchy system. I don't think we see much in the end because the 500mb energy is pretty far north.

Yeah, more than likely too North. May be some tailend wraparound and some upslope. If we can get that Front riding wave we'd do well. 

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

EPS member 49:

 

6z gefs has +EPO next week. If correct may go over to consensus forecasted mild period. We'll see. This may be one of the odd man out years and that gets squelched or even overridden by other drivers as happened in those " odd" year's. Probably not but, there's a little hooe if one doesn't want the canonical Nino December warmth. 

Looks alot like '60's Nino's. 

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong 11-15 day signal for +EPO on the 6z GEFS. 

https://ibb.co/sq5tH7X

We haven't had any snow in stronger +EPO I think for at least the last 5-6 years.  Looking for the model to change (it's been in flux more than average this year), or for that AK trough to become +PNA in the time after... but we likely won't see any snow for the next 15-16 days after today. That can also be a very warm pattern as it evolves.

If correct, yeah odds favor what you mentioned of what the consensus has been forecasting for that time frame really. However, we have seen things go against the grain recently. Maybe one of the time's we go back to before the last 5-6 year's. Just a little positive thought. 

Snow shower's earlier here . Quick dusting that melted quickly in lower elevations. A dusting to an inch or so from 2000 feet upward. 

Snow Showers here this morning. Quick dusting in valley location that quickly melted. Elevations above 2000 feet still has a dusting to an inch or so up around 3000 ft. 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I actually just studied this lol.....65-66 and 86-87 had almost no snow in Dec and turned out well but yes...all our epic winters (40 inch or more) had significant snow in December. I wish i was alive i the 60s man....almost every year was epic and most had big Decembers

Yep, they were. Nino, Nina -PDO etc.. it still snowed!! 

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think phase 8 is warm in El Nino Decembers, not later in the year. it's a cold signal for Jan and Feb

either way, the MJO becomes a lot more favorable and there are reasons for optimism late-month

Exactly. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So let me get this straight...according to him the traditional warm phases 3-6 are warm, but in an el nino the cold phases 8-1-2 are also warm?  SO WTF is cold?  

Yeah really, lol . Never saw anything differentiating MJO Phases based on Enso. 

Thundersnow

Sugar Ski & Country Club Sugar Mountain Web Cam - Resort Cams

Saw on SE sub that it was snowing at 4500 ft this morning. I'd venture to say Thundersnow occurred above 4000 feet with the cells this Afternoon. Temp fell from 52 to 43 during storm here. 

thunder in the mountains ftw ! Thunderstorms crossing area currently. Large claps of thunder here.

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I just daydream about being atop mount Rainier in times like these: 

The only mistake that forecaster is making is saying the snow " could be heavy". Should be "will be"  , as is obvious. 

      Can you imagine that ?! Those rates !!!!!! 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Seen a tweet talking about El Niño winters after severe drought conditions in ETn. Something like 3 of our 4 major droughts during a Nino was followed by some of our snowiest winters on record. One of those was a late 1800’s winter that was the snowiest winter on record for Knoxville. Obviously not suggesting this is coming but it’s nice to have some history on your side. One good thing either way, dry Nino winters seem very rare.


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I think that Winter Knoxville recorded around 6 feet. I'm thinking a Dr Dewpoint Article by Joe D'aleo on Intellicast had it. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The warm start to December is shrinking with each passing model run.  Here at TRI, we have two different days in which snow might fly this week.

I recall several years ago models would always have to adjust to blocking effects. They would trend colder as we progressed during those episodes. May be at least partially what's going on.