Daniel Boone

Merry Christmas everyone ! 

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yes, WW might have less anxiety with this look.

It's pretty clear where the pattern is headed for mid to late Jan. I have always thought any NA blocking for early Jan would be a bonus, and it appears we are headed in that direction. A relatively brief period of -PNA is not a death knell in a Nino, esp if the NA is favorable. Historically a neutral/-PNA has been a feature in some of our snowiest periods during a Nino. Maybe that doesn't work as well anymore, but that's another subject.

Yeah, that blocking during a Nino is a big time difference maker, even with a -PNA.  Historical analysis is clearcut irt that. Even can mute the decent amp MJO warm phases to where we still score in the upper SE and MA. 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Party comes to an end around the 10th, before a likely long pause in winter....hope we can score prior to that.  MJO begins to really work around us.  Though oddly, the surface maps are still cold as NA really starts to cool off during the first half of January.

Larry had a bit of Info on the MJO Phases and the years noted that stayed cold during warm phases in SE Sub forum. Some good ones in there. January 1978 was one. It was cold and snowy the entire month here. Also , January 2010. He also showed the ones in which it was warm as well. Hard to believe but, they were nearly even. A slight hedge on warm side 51% I think. Blocking and El nino appears to be the difference maker. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th.  Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there.   There is also a stronger signal after 300.

I think we have our chances through the 10th, and then my concerns grow considerably in terms of an extended warm-up.  One MJO plot had the MJO taking 6-7 days per phase once into the warm phases.  Considering there are roughly 4 warm phases.....Going to need some help.  That could happen - see conversations on the previous page.  That said, the MJO has been a decent predictor again this winter so far.  We need to score between Christmas and Jan10, or a long wait might be in store.

February would likely have the MJO hit the mother load of cold phases FWIW.

 

Man, we're completely on the same page. Larry posted on SE Forum irt what we're discussing, giving an explanation on how we get around warm ph. Exactly what we discussed yesterday. He brought up an example and that being last Christmas cold shot being during MJO Ph 5. I just replied you and I had mentioned the ways we get around that in the Tn valley Forum. Thing is, HLB is not guaranteed as we know. Also, cold last Christmas took forever to finally get in here and was short lived. Makes sense with the MJO working against it.

Hopefully, strong blocking will set up, if not our worries are warranted.

P.S, just went back and saw someone had posted Larry's remarks here. Should of looked before I leaped, lol. Btw, a shoutout to Larry, he is top notch in the meteorological community and as a genuine Person.

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Keep in mind that the MJO, though quite important, can sometimes be overruled by other factors. Whereas outside the COD phase 5 is on average one of the warmer Dec phases for the SE, that is just an average.

 Just last year the coldest air of the winter in the SE by far was during the period Dec 23-26, which was during high amplitude phase 5! (see below). The main driver was a very strong -AO teaming up with a moderate +PNA along with a strong -EPO that had just ended. There actually was a moderate +NAO. And it was during La Niña! At least this year we have El Niño and its favoring of a +PNA. And then we’ll see if we can get a -AO and perhaps a -NAO.

 So, looking ahead to Jan, if the MJO really does go into moderate phases 4-6, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it being mild in the SE then. No recent Euro Weeklies run has had it mild.

Yeah agree Larry, that was what Carvers and I in the Tenn Valley Forum were saying regarding how we get around the MJO .warm phases.  

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Both the gfs and eps looks really good going forward.

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Probably see those snow projections increase as we get closer if the advertised pattern continues to evolve. 

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point: an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.  

A Feb. 2015 setup I could go along with that statement but, I don't see it here. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb.  That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter).  And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases.  But HLB could counter balance that.  The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb.  I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx .  Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan.  But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.

Yeah. I think we have a decent shot at a couple respectable Snowfalls the first week of January before the possibility of the MJO screwing things up. We still may get a surprise by the end of this Month. May be something similar to what we just had or a little better, imo.

   I'm with you on the idea that even if the MJO does do as projected, we still won't torch and may even score a time or two. Feb. Does look good overall as of now. 

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If we are not to lose a large chunk of our best climatology(and assuming the MJO plots are right about 20-25 day rotation through the warm phases), there will have to be a counter balance.   There are times when we have stayed cold during warm phases of the MJO(maybe 95-96?).  It is rare, but it can happen.  This winter kind of has that feel that we could buck the MJO. JB mentioned the -AO could counter the MJO.  I have no idea it that happens, but the Weeklies do hint at that.  

Yeah, right with you there man. Remarked in SE Forum regarding that. That's really the only fly in the ointment from what would be a great Jan thru February imo. The MJO zooming through cold phases but crawling through the warm. Why couldn't it be the other way around, lol. Hopefully, goes liw amp warm and blocking will counter. The ace for us as far as a memorable old fashioned Winter Pattern is the Strat. If it occurs, could be an epic February as at least part of that period the MJO should be in cold phases. 

4 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

To this point this winter we've pretty much followed climo for a strong el niño to a tee. If this were to continue then we should get a 1-2 week favorable window in early January, which we are starting to see on the models. Normally that would be followed by a mid/late January thaw. Decent chance that by that time the MJO is heading into the warm phases for us so certainly possible. Not all bad because troughing to our west can build that snow pack over the northern plains. This sets us up perfectly for February, the banner month of strong el Niños, usually very cold and very snowy in the east. This could time up well with possible stratosphere impacts and the MJO making its way back out of the warm phases. 

If all pans out, much better than last year. However, still a fly in the ointment so to speak. We still have a problem with the MJO, all due to the extremely warm wpac . Notice how once it gets to the cold phases it zooms through then crawls through the warm.?.. That could spell a short cold period in early January followed by an extended nirmal to mild stretch again. Thankfully, the Nino should mitigate the mildness with that . Also, the Strat deal could really switch it to full bore old fashioned Winter late January/through Feb. 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Funny quote from the MA thread.  Someone asked if the volcano in Iceland would help or hurt our snow chances.  One response said that molten lava could be a problem.

Yeah, saw that post, lol. 

Wound up with an inch here. Reports of 2 inches along Lee/Wise line. 

GFS really was GooFuS with this one. Saw WJHL show their Model cast earlier and it just totally blew it. Allender that used to be there told me it was basically the GFS they use. 

43 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Boy, things have escalated! Up to a full inch now and the roadways have turned white in a raging snow squall.

You guys will probably wind up with 2-3" . Maybe 4 in a few spots. 

Heavy snow shower with gusty winds and visibility below 75 yards dropped this in about 5 minutes . 

Extremely heavy snshwr just moved through here with gust 30-40 mph. Covered ground with about 1/4-1/5".

Extremely heavy snshwr just moved through here with gust 30-40 mph. Covered ground with about 1/4-1/5".

Lt Snow began here around 20 minutes ago. Mainly graupel but also some small flakes 1/8-1/4" dia. Temp is 38. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Hoping against hope to see some flakes but it looks like now even places like LeConte won't see much of anything.

Everything further North. Trajectory still looks to get southern extent of those heavier returns in KY later into SWVA/NE Tn . Unless they die off or Get pulled even further North and even miss this area. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

No idea if correct, but I thought that I would share!   LOL.

Glad you did and great analysis as usual man. 

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wow.  The 12z EPS is now depicting a fairly decent winter wx patter for the last five days of its run  which is the last four days of December and NYD.  Here is the last 5 day 500 map and the very last day of that run.  That will work.  We are not looking at Weeklies now.  Oddly, this is what the original weeklies sort of had.  Textbook Nino BN heights over the SE.  Maybe it is a bit overdone, but we are now entering the timeframe when the EPS is respectable - meaning no shoulder season.  That would be quite cold under those BN heights.  The GEFS is less impressed but is a similar setup.  But man, that is impressive below.

 

Was just looking at that a little while ago. Probably has legs this time. Definitely a snow threat last week of the month. Too bad not a few days sooner for Christmas. 

27 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Even the HRRR has more than that. Actually the HRRR verbatim might have some thunder in convective bands late Monday.

I really wonder what it is (or isn't) seeing.

It's basically keeping what it has further North. Has the flow off Lake Michigan aimed toward Wva whereas other Models have it further South toward SEKY and the SW tiip of VA and on to the TN/NC Mountains. 

2 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours.  Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution.   It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible.  

For whatever reason the GFS somehow doesn't pickup basically any nwsf really. Just the disturbance mainly and that to the North.

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Happy hour of the 18z is winter. Is it right?  It is happy hour, but I just hope the 18z passes the bottle to the next run!

GFS basically says what nw flow event .  Hopefully it's wrong. 

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes!  High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas.  I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley.

 

 

this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through.

If the Hrrr hasn't been upgraded any it still has a bit of a warm bias in this area. So, will be a test to see if that still exists.