Itstrainingtime

Pouring rain here now as the cold front blasts through Florida.

CTP has my low that morning 23 degrees higher than that model output.

You were probably in NYC.

Certainly could be one of the coldest weeks since January 16th to 22nd 1994. Harrisburg had SIX sub-zero readings that week and three of them were sub-negative 10. -14, -21 and -22. Those numbers will be tough to match ever again.

Do a little work on the ridge axis out west and next weekend's threat could emerge again.

Yep. That's why I said at lunchtime that I feel the NAM excels at thermals. It's an elite model for a very specific purpose. MillvilleWx just commented on that in the MA thread. Seems like we go through this with every storm. NAM is ridiculed by so many but for Miller Bs and a primary west of us I will take it to the bank. Though to be completely truthful...a lot or times it actually underdoes both the extent of mixing and the speed of changeover. Everything else? I toss if it's on it's own.

Looks like according to JNS radar, Etown is literally riding the line. Might be the only spot in Lanco snowing?

@Mount Joy Snowman according to my son, big flakes are mixing in again at his casa in Etown. Now almost all snow!

100% correct! I'd guess most areas will tack on a couple of inches of additional accumulation in the form of sleet. So if you had 8" of snow you may very well reach double figures when it's done. If you don't/didn't measure at transition time you might record half of what you actually got due to sleet compaction.

Sleet/mix line is through Harrisburg. At least.

Was that you that sent in a snowfall total to WGAL?

@Ruin I was not trying to be rude or unkind to you the past few days. I apologize if I came off that way. We all have and should express our thoughts and opinions, that's why we're here. (Or fishing in the Gulf) I was as adamant as I was simply because of science. If warm air aloft has an outlet, and it was quite clear the past few days that it did...well, it just doesn't matter how cold or how fresh an airmass is...it's going to lose out to that warm air intrusion. Just the way it is. Once it became obvious we were Miller B'n we needed the OV low to die farther south than it was modeled to do so.

When it comes to changeover events (and nothing else) I always trust it. Always. I'm 60 years old and I lived this song and dance since having my heart ripped out as a kid in the 1970s. It's just climo for us. 1994, I had freezing rain and 8.1 degrees. I have those kind of stats written down and memorized.

@Mount Joy Snowman @dcfox1 If either of you could provide a snow total at transition time I would greatly appreciate it! And if not, totally understand.

Thanks. Makes sense to someone who's never been on one.