Itstrainingtime

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sad things couldn't come together for the weekend system. A good bit of my snow will melt today so tomorrow's .75-1" will be welcome. 

Problem is, with every model run the frontal boundary continues to press farther and farther south tonight. This results in wave going farther south, and if it keeps trending that way we might not see much of anything. 

Weekend unfortunately is falling by the beachside. 

Yesterday, the LSV was in the bullseye for tomorrow. That has shifted south into northern MD. Still time for a bump north. 

More chances coming next week.  

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

GFS has a big daddy storm  959mb lol 

 

Haven't I seen that map recently?...

I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon. 

7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Call me a weenie but I have a feeling something is going to happen out of the blue that is going to make all of us happy.

I really do as well. I'm very optimistic. Doesn't mean we'll get anything but I think we will. 

40 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

are we going to nickel and dime our way to climo this year? 

Interesting question! A LOT of winter forecasts that I read from mets back in the fall said that this winter would be full of nickel and dimes and would be absent of bigger storms. This is what I've been expecting all along. 

This is the best Americanwx reaction to a great Euro run I've ever seen:

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Neither of them have the needed resolution to do the job.

 

 

My god, your analogy gets better and better! 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Ensemble members that showed a Hecs this weekend are Ben Simmons.  

Great analogy...both are in the house and neither are interested in actually playing. 

Just now, Superstorm said:

I see lots of potential. Active northern and southern branch with cold air.


.

Exactly! 

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Let's go EURO 

EURO = 76ers. So much promise, so much reputation. So little reward. 

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

One southern storm after another all misses

Could very well be, but in a pattern like this we can't say 4 days out from any threat whether it'll be a hit or a miss. We didn't have tomorrow night on our radar until early yesterday. 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Up to 34 here already.   The sun is turning the ice into slush and they are finally plowing the streets.  Could not break the ice until now. 

37 here with rapidly dwindling white. My low overnight was only 32 though. 

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t like the part about “shifting back toward what we saw in December.”

That's only after what is likely 3 chances for snow - tomorrow night (I didn't copy over his post about that), this weekend, and then next weekend. Let's get through 3 chances for snow and worry about February in...February.  

5 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That's because the GFS still hates us.

I'll say this - the GFS has been on a roll this winter, but it's been largely dominated by northern stream energy. This weekend is mostly southern stream, which the GFS typically has had a SE bias. Also, the southern stream is the Euro's "strength." (this is from a met discussion I read this morning, this isn't my personal nonsense) Anyway, the GFS is incrementally getting closer - I still feel good that we'll get "something". Might not be the huge totals the Euro had yesterday but I think some snow is on the table. 

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS almost captures the second weekend wave.  It's rain for most of the Thursday event. 

 

See my post above - Elliott thinks we're getting snow this weekend. And perhaps an even bigger one to follow. 

MU Met is not about suppression this weekend:

As I mentioned on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye on Friday and Saturday (Jan. 21-22) for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Details remain nebulous at this distance, and there's a wide range of potential solutions at this time. Anything from an out-to-sea solution to a major snowstorm or another snow-to-rain event is currently on the table. However, I always like to look at these smaller-scale systems from a broader perspective and ask, "What does the large-scale pattern suggest?" In this case, the ridge axis in the West that I so often refer to is still modeled to be right along or just offshore of the West Coast. At the same time, the large-scale, downstream trough axis (or bottom of the dip in the jet stream) will likely be over the Mississippi or western Ohio Valley. This is not too dissimilar from the large-scale setup that was present over the last few days, making me highly skeptical an out-to-sea outcome.

Now, there are going to be several disturbances (associated with the southern branch of the jet stream) that come onshore into Southern California over the next 24-48 hours. At the same time, energy associated with the northern branch of the jet stream will dive down into the northern Plains. This is what meteorologists refer to as a "split flow" jet stream pattern, and these are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The two branches of the jet stream often converge across eastern parts of the US in these types of patterns, and just where, when, and how these two branches interact can mean the different between a major winter storm and nothing at all! Trying to sort out which disturbances are going to interact with one another and in what fashion is challenging, to say the least, more than a few days in advance. So, my point is that, while I currently do favor a solution that results in at least some snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and northern Maryland late Friday into Saturday, we're still only talking about "potential." A lot can change in the next 2-3 days, and I certainly wouldn't bet money on any particular outcome! What we will likely have going for us this go around is a cold, Canadian high pressure system centered across northern New England instead of hundreds of miles offshore. This means that north-to-northeasterly winds would be able to funnel cold air down into the Commonwealth before the storm arrives and keep it "locked in" during the event. In last night's case, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean routed the cold air mass in place and caused precipitation to change over to a wintry mix and rain. At least at this distance, it doesn't appear that we'll have to contend with the same issue on Friday and Saturday. Details will become more clear over the next 2-3 days, so follow @MUweather on Twitter for my latest thoughts and frequent updates!

I'll end by re-emphasizing a point I made on Saturday. Toward the last day or two of January and the first few days of February, our cold, wintry pattern may begin to slowly shift back toward what we saw in December. It sometimes takes a major storm to bring about these pattern changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's another storm threat sometime between January 29 (the day I turn the "big 3-0" -- yikes!) and February 1. But, this is just speculation at this point.. so let's deal with one storm at a time and the rest of the chaos sort

If the GFS and others don't make a move with the weekend system at 12z, my storm will be on life support. Right now it's on...life support. Still think the setup could provide southerners with a moderate snowfall. 

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

There’s 3” out this way but it’s a true glacier.  I’m driving car on top without breaking through.   1” of qpf locked in 

I've got about 1.5" here. It'll disappear tomorrow for sure. 

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Unusually stark differences in the NAM 12k versus 3k with regards to location of snowfall on Wednesday night.  The southern edge of the 12k is damn near the northern edge of the 3k.  A narrow swath indeed.

Bring it home. I hate setups like this because I feel like the models won't have a handle on something this delicate. Too much can go wrong. Saying that, I fully expect some areas will get a nice, small event. Problem is...too many people won't. 

24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well I'm not ahead.  Actually the difference between your yard and my yard have been more than notable for the events we've had.  As I drive to Etown everyday, I/'ve seen both.  Just a fact and not perspective for MBY.  I'd be happy if I had the snowcover that I see here in Etown.  Just jealous and I'm allowed to be as we are about to head into a potentially BORING pattern w/ chances of clips until a reshuffle.  Went to my parents up off rt 72 last evening...its a winter wonderland. Its brown in Ephrata

 

and thats not being sassy...thats just the brown ground truth.  Please go work on your storm for this weekend.  I'm counting on you.

    

Fair enough, I had no idea there was that much of a discrepancy. You caught me off guard because you're usually positive and I'm the one throwing the less-rosy posts around. 

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

No Sunday storm 

You just made the best decision on these forums yet. 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You guys should enjoy the deep winter look for the foreseeable future.  Congrats 

I'll get my 1" on Thurs and try to figure out how to preserve it till the clipper parade comes...as the southern stream looks to get suppressed/shut off after this weekend.

Boy, the LSV sure is working the jip zone rather well this year. 

@@Voyager, can you ship some snow down to mby please?? 

Perspective I guess, but I'm running ahead of climo for snowfall to date. Agree that it doesn't really feel like it. 

3 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

Chickies hill area was a little slick this AM from the morning snows.

Yes, it was slick on my drive to work but bone dry on my way home. 

36 minutes ago, anotherman said:

How are roads in Lancaster county looking?

Your drive to Mount Joy should be just fine. Only roads with issues are developments.