It's not just the NWS either - I've yet to see or hear a forecast for Lanco that even mentions snow for the Sunday event. I see nothing but rain with temps in the low 40s during the day dropping to the mid 30s Sunday night.
I would guess that today would be the day that changes in the forecast might happen?
Low made it as far north as the Ohio River - a little too far north for the southern tier. A shunt just a little farther south would have made almost all of us happy. (2nd storm)
18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA.
With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization)
The loop is from the last 3 runs of the model (0z, 6z, and 12z) for the same time stamp, which is 6z Monday morning. The loop shows that with each new run, the low is centered farther SE than the previous run.
CMC and GFS at 12z look almost identical - perhaps a bit more frozen early on in the SE on the CMC but the overall evolution is nearly lock step with the GFS.
Exactly. Most times...not all, but certainly more than enough, we want to be in the middle of the zone or even on the northern edge when we do well. Riding the southern/SE edge has not worked out for us in the past.
I agree in principle with you.
But, I think the odds are tilted very strongly against those of us SE of MDT. Hope I'm wrong!
No I don't - I'm going to Philly Sunday night. Go team rain! (after midnight Sunday, it can snow like the dickens the rest of the winter)
Never want to be on the SE edge of the blues...like, almost never does that work out. Now we're actually on the outside looking in for the blue area.
Doesn't mean it won't come back, but as you said VERY accurately, that's not the way this usually works out.