Itstrainingtime

They raised tomorrow's expected high temps several degrees - my forecast is the same as yours - last evening my forecast was for a high of 28 tomorrow.

Exactly - without the clouds, the snow would be waving bye bye.

Can we take a sec and appreciate the cloud cover today? With temps rising into the 30s, if we had full sun, we'd be staring at snow on piles tomorrow instead of snow on snow. These clouds are saving our pack, big time. If I could draw it up...it would stay cloudy to about 4-4:30, clear off for 4-5 hours, then cloud over later this evening. Give me a few hours of radiational cooling first.

Welcome back Jon. I'm sorry for the public bickering I took part in with the trolls. I didn't mean to add fuel to the fire.

Really, there are subtle (somewhat subtle) differences in QPF distribution across the area, the NAM really went wild east of here. That fell in line with MU's map, which is unlike most of the forecast maps I've seen.

Meh - if the tundra at Thomasville is at 19, I'm honestly surprised that MDT isn't higher.

ICON doesn't look like the NAM - no hint of higher totals in Philly metro and east.

21 in Maytown currently - just 2 below what MDT is reporting which would make their number seem legit to me. Within the last hour MU has fluctuated between 16 and 20.

0z NAM looks very much like MU's thoughts...

That map goes directly opposite of what our area's likely leading met just posted. LOL

In fairness @Blizzard of 93 - MU's Kyle Elliott agrees with you. (It wouldn't be right for me not to post this after my rebuttal)

I just don't think you can look at snow maps and say "well, we should be good for what the maps are showing" - that almost always results in disappointment. I'll take the under and win a king's ransom more often than not.

I do have an honest, factual point to what you're saying. Virtually every single snow map that was posted for yesterday's event (I went back and looked at every one of them, even though it pained me) had Lanco getting between 4 up to yes including, 7" of snow. Most Lanco ACTUAL snowfall totals were between 2.5 and 3.5". That is not an uncommon occurrence. The vast (and I do mean VAST) majority of time...what actually accumulates is less than those snow maps. Are there exceptions? Sure. But they're just that - exceptions. Which is reason #27 why I don't like snow maps. They are usually too inflated. I believe I'm not speaking incorrectly here.

And at least here where I work, it's currently windier than it was last evening at this time. I just walked across campus to my meeting site and I was stunned how hard the wind's blowing.

Tom Russell for the win? (he tweeted this within the past hour)

By gametime this might end up being congrats @pawatch (who did better than all of us with the last event even though he was fringed going into it)

I posted CTP's map last evening for the Friday event - looks like they've ADDED 1" to their new map:

You're absolutely right, there has been a lot of sublimation going on. One of the curses of low water content snow. I'm also right - there is a lot of melting ongoing as well. The water running isn't a result of sublimation.

Millersville's director of Met has been talking about the SSW for the past couple of weeks - Mitch, what you've said in these posts mirror his thoughts perfectly. While not a certainty, MU believes that colder, snowier weather is around the corner. The timeframe that you mention seems spot on with his thoughts as well.

Wow - I was working on my post and did not see this until after I posted mine. You are absolutely right.

I think 1-2" is probably the best call for Friday for the following reasons/factors as I see it: Total QPF Intensity of QPF falling Time of day that it's falling I just arrived at work - it was 20.1 at home when I left. When I walked out the front door, it sounded like a faucet was running. There is a lot of melting going on at 20 degrees. If temps on Friday are close to 30, snow will struggle to accumulate with light rates. Yards not so much, but streets may remain wet the entire day. To me, Friday seems to be falling squarely in the "nuisance" category for most. I am really excited for the end of the month into February. Me thinks we're going to have a lot of fun in the coming weeks.

It wasn't that much more, but most of MD definitely got more than we did today - shoot, even DCA came in at 4.1". BWI was just under 5". Most of the LSV was between 2 and 4". I'd say on average, most spots down there got about 1 - 1.5" more than most of us.

CTP's current thoughts for Friday:

My forecast for days has been for sustained winds in the 20s this afternoon with gusts to the mid 30s. I thought it was well forecasted in advance...

I was reading some obs in the MA thread this morning where people were complaining about light rain/sleet - I'm thinking "they might not realize how fortunate they are to have that nice glaze on top of their pack."