Itstrainingtime

Wow! Still looks like it's about an hour away here - temp is still at 44. Not expecting much accumulation here.

You're going to drive yourself crazy following OP runs. They are literally all over the place.

MU pretty bullish on tonight's rains - up to 1.5" of water in a few locations. 1" of rain for most of us.

Clouds are in the process of lowering here now; however, the temp is already up to 44. LOL

Damn - Wes (usedtobe) has made an appearance in the MA thread - NOW it's starting to get real. He hardly ever pops in any longer.

It's been 2 weeks since I started talking about the 3/10 - 3/20 time period. Almost all of you (but not everyone) thought I was crazy...it's just nice to see a large storm of significance showing up on more more models now for that time period. It beats the hell out of the almost complete shutout pattern we've had for MOST of the past 2 years.

This has come a LONG way just over the past 48 hours - still work to do...but the players are on the field:

Amazing numbers for the 1958 storm Paul...wasn't it not far from your location that Morgantown received something like 50" from that storm? Imagine getting 19" and feeling like you missed out.

Randy's was priceless. LOL

Talk about not just relying on models when making forecasts - almost everything I looked at had me getting to the mid to upper 60s by 3pm today. At 4:15pm I'm at my high for the day thus far at 56...

PSU talking 1958 in the MA thread...

This should help you out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow

What a maverick you are!

And that's why I'm excited. In mid March I don't want 3" of taters that melt in 45 minutes. It's time for big game hunting.

Wild swings in OP runs are not unusual...I think that becomes even more magnified in March. There is going to be a push of cold air - and the energy potential seems very high. We don't have a long window but with each day I become more and more convinced that there will be a big storm in the east. What that translates to in our area is still a long way off from being decided. This is the first time I've been excited in 2 years...but trust me, I know very well that you can't shovel potential. We're still going to need some luck.

All that means is that the sun will still be melting our snowfall later and later in the day. That's the thing with March snow...in December and early January, unless it's a very warm day, snowmelt is ending by 4pm as the sun gets too low to do any damage. In mid March, it can be 32 at 6:00pm and it's still dripping away...

GFS is gradually making moves towards the EPS...all we can ask for at this point. The EPS is remaining steady and I was hoping that the GFS camp would blink first.

To be clear - I'm all onboard for the timeframe of mid March. I did not pick a single shortwave and christen it as my storm. If the first wave cuts there will be one behind it that won't. (hopefully) The SE ridge should get beaten down as the trough moves east...it might take a cutter to first flush the system before things align in the way that we need.

They are under a Winter Storm Watch for 2 feet of snow for this coming weekend, and there's a lot of talk about a major storm later next week that has the potential to drop up to 6-8 FEET of additional snow.

72 days...not that I'm counting.

PAweather started a new thread all...

Admittedly...I haven't looked at Friday for days. I've been focusing on my HECS in another 10 days or so.

That's by far the most optimistic he's been this entire season, FWIW...

Elliott keeps ITT hopes alive by jumping in and throwing me a bone. An excerpt from this afternoon: I anticipate a shift toward persistently chillier conditions during the second (and perhaps third) week of March. The Greenland blocking is expected to slowly retrograde westward into northeastern Canada over the next 5-10 days. As it does so, the Jet Stream will be forced farther south into the mid-latitudes and beat down the upper-level ridge over the Southeast. With the strong blocking in place and potential for a Jet Stream ridge to briefly flare up over the Rockies sometime between March 10th to March 20th, the odds of a late-season snowstorm will go up. Will snow-lovers be treated to a last-second surprise before the official start of Spring? I don't have the answers yet, but winter's "endgame" saved the entire season in both 2017 and 2018. Can history repeat itself? Stay tuned to find out! ❄️ -- Elliott

Someone just ruin-ed the parade in the MA thread.