Itstrainingtime

Elliott just shared some thoughts - I'd say he picked some nice dates for his timeframe: (1/4) Mother Nature's version of #MarchMadness in the eastern U.S. begins today. A big pattern change.. featuring a pronounced west-based -NAO (Jet Stream blocking centered southwest of Greenland) and a progression toward western US ridging.. is underway.. (2/4) .. and will reach maturity between March 10-20. The high-latitude blocking suppresses the Jet Stream farther south into the mid-latitudes, and the subtle ridge in the West forces storm systems to track underneath the block instead of cutting into the Great Lakes.. (3/4) Add to this a highly-amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave running wild through phases 8 and 1, and we have a recipe for below-normal temps and at least a couple opportunities for snow in southeastern PA and northern MD over the next two weeks.. (4/4) With that being said, snow-lovers need to root for the upper-level low responsible for the Fri/Sat storm to track farther south. If it doesn't, we'll have a "nuisance" event with a rain/snow mix and 1-3 inch snowfall amounts (at best) on grass..

Steady as she goes - I've been excited for a few weeks now and it's awesome to see some threats that can pay off. Further, there might be something lurking that we haven't even seen modeled yet. #allaboardtheittlimited.

Superstorm '93 was earlier...March 12th or 13th from what I remember. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

I'm all over it.

That's the wave that PSU is all over (though he's still interested in wave #2) and it comes at the end of what I believe is the most favorable period. I still think there's way too much volatility to give up on the next 7 days.

No precip here in Maytown - at least nothing measurable. Clouds and peeks of sun with a brisk breeze and 38 currently. As I've been mentioning...a whole gamut of solutions out there for the next week or two. The GFS this morning had a BEAST on the east coast at the end of my window. Isn't there some truth that a KU event often comes as the pattern breaks down?...

Buy YOU a coke? It looks like my post hit before yours did.

Shows the variability, uncertainty, and most importantly the potential in the upcoming couple of weeks. Multiple chances with many solutions to come.

2 waves on the Euro drop a combined 4-7" across the LSV. That is from early Saturday through Tuesday.

End result is the only that matters but the Euro was really close to something special as @Bubbler86 and @paweather already noted. Still feel good about this.

Decent chance they wiz on by the 600" barrier this weekend.

Yep...another 50-100 miles south and watch out. There's equal reason to think it could continue south or perhaps correct north.

From what I see so far I'm liking this Euro run...

@Mount Joy Snowman - Mammoth is under a State of Emergency - they have no where to go with the snow and perhaps the biggest storm of the winter inbound in 72 hours. Current snow depth is 224" - also, they can't get the ski lifts going as the snow depth is now over the chairs near the loading stations. Several more roof collapses reported around town this morning. And the next storm will be warmer with much wetter/heavier snowfall which will further exasperate the situation. The town is 8000' in elevation - it's not like they're not used to dealing with a lot of snow. But this is unprecedented territory. There's a sign posted coming into town "Pray For Us...We Can't Take Any More Snow".

Honestly, what model can be trusted right now? Add in a changing pattern and it's March and surprises are sure to happen.

Sun-splashed skies and 51. Warm in the sun sheltered from the breeze, downright cool factoring in winds and if in shade.

Euro/Ukie tandem was unstoppable. Both have come back to the pack.

It wasn't that many years ago that you could take the Ukie to the bank...

Power has been out in Mammoth Lakes since 2:30am yesterday morning from the latest blizzard - sounds like the town picked up another 30-40" from the "scattered snow showers" that were forecast. Looking likely that they pick up another 4 to 7 feet this coming weekend. It's not even fun for them anymore - there's no where to go with it, roofs are collapsing, supplies are exhausted, etc. They're crying uncle but the snow machine won't shut off. Assuming we can make it (starting to wonder) I'm going to see more snow in 10 weeks than I'd ever dream about seeing in my lifetime.

I endorse this post in full. And you make a great point - admittedly, I've been forward focused for the LSV. Best wishes/congratulations to many of our N & NE friends who will get a nice snowfall in a matter of hours.

Hey, I could very well be wrong and every one of you can tell me I was foolish for getting excited. I willingly put myself out there and made a bold prediction. I'll live with the consequences either way.

Meh - we've had ADVERTISED good patterns - I haven't seen anything in a couple of years to get excited about. It doesn't always snow in actual good patterns, either.

I resonate with that. I'm riding this baby through - still insist this is the best chance locally for something plowable since 2021. I haven't had my shovel outside in 26 months. It's going to snow in the east and probably a lot in quite a few locations...

Be thrilled to get something from one of them - we could be too warm for wave #1 and wave #2 could very well be suppressed/off the coast if there's not enough spacing for it move up. Pattern still looks great to me - I mean, we're going to be seeing multiple chances over the next 2 weeks but there's a path to heartache. Potential can't be shoveled and we go on the clock soon...and it'll be a running clock with no timeouts.

"The wave behind the wave". Pattern aligns better with this - colder air is more established than wave #1 so we just need the precip to attack it.