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Posts posted by Itstrainingtime
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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:
EPS is beautiful
.8"+ mean over just about the entire LSV.
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Blizz spent all of that money on a hotel in center city and has been waiting outside for like 17 hours now. All of that and he's missing the parade because he just passed out.
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
I think part of my reasoning is that if we used forecasters it would not be as fun of a hobby (for some.) re: if someone is just parroting DT or MU is that really fun when it comes to informing friends and family? This is specific to the question from festus, where would you get info to pass to others. Frankly WGAL, which I have on in the back ground most nights, gives as much or more detail as any other forecaster. They are the "weather authority" for TV around here. LOL.
Understood. I'm here for the same reason. I just tend to give more weight elsewhere. Totally agree about WGAL - I think they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Harrisburg stations.
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Someone pushed Elliott on X for his opinion on next week's event. Right now he's thinking a moderate event for Lanco.
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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
I agree with your assessment in sentence 1. WGAL is the most watched and listened to weather "forecaster" in the area. Many people who just want to know the weather for their daily needs would not like the dry and often changing NWS Zone forecasts and do not know how or want to look at the AFD. I always assumed most here use models vs. forecasters.
I think that's accurate. And I'm admittedly the dissenter from that group. I maintain that a very good met trumps models the vast majority of the time because an excellent local met is going to give weight to models and then factor in nuances like I started mentioning in my post above that models simply miss. We've had countless storms that mixed in Lanco that not one single model picked up on.
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3 minutes ago, Festus said:
When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly).
I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know". So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method? Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast? Weight output from the NWS a little heavier? A favorite source here or elsewhere? Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole?
Personally, I go with my localized climate and also 50+ years of history. I remember everything. After that amount of time and data collection, general trends start to emerge. I know that in Lanco we should never count on a clipper due to downsloping unless the track is roughly through NOVA. I know that big east coast storms generally mix here much faster and more often than any model will show...I learned that the hard way and also from Horst years ago. Someone questioned him why he was calling for sleet when no other forecaster or model showed it, his reply was they were all wrong because there's nothing to impede that flow off the ocean in our area. Things like that stick with me. And my notes. As far as actual forecasters, I do rely on MU the most but also factor in what some mets in here say. @MAG5035 is someone whom I trust and respect and heed his calls. Also, @MillvilleWx is another, and I think he was a disciple of Eric.
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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:
Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College. Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE. Still has room to be pulled in. A nice result.
Yeah, a little further east than 0z but in the ballpark. Small changes aloft won't be sorted out for a few days and those subtleties will have big implications on the final result.
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Jalen Hurts about to be introduced to Americanwx - he's going to be heading down Broad Street and wondering why this one random dude in the crowd has his phone extended high in the air, not to take pictures or video of Hurts, but instead with some mysterious map image full of blues, pinks and purples all along the eastern seaboard...
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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:
Not to be argumentative, but it actually looked to me like this had an opportunity to be a WHOLE lot better. The low was only about 1004mb off the east coast. It hadn't really bombed out on this run until it was gone.
Edit: It definitely went nuclear after that!
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Sigh - I literally just mentioned this yesterday, and here we go again...
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MU Weather Center
In terms of weather, it's shaping up to be a nasty #PresidentsDayWeekend. Periods of rain will dampen the LSV Sat eve through Sun AM before ending later Sun afternoon. Due to the ongoing #drought and absence of snowpack, #flooding won't be a concern. I expect 0.75-1.50" of rain.
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MU Weather Center
The talk of a "major snowstorm" late next week has merit. The MJO is in Phase 8, & we'll also have a ridge in the West & west-based, -NAO. All of this *could* add up to a bona fide Nor'easter. However, you can't shovel potential!
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@sauss06 - there should be a new video coming from the guy in Mammoth...they picked up 55" so far from the current storm and it isn't finished yet:
https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village
Edit: and here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDIeaJAAjR8
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3 hours ago, sauss06 said:
thinking a road trip to OCMD
Don't need much of a reason to take off and head to the beach.
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I was trying to figure out why Blizz was so quiet when the runs were coming in last night and then I remembered he was perched on top of a light pole on Market Street in Philly.
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Also, there was a very heavy burst of snow at home around 1:20 this morning. Near zero visibility for a couple of minutes. Totally unexpected.
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Dear Central PA Weather Morning Crew:
You're welcome. Thank me now or thank me later.
This place was DEAD last evening...2 completely disjointed and meaningless convos going in our 2 threads centered on alcohol prices at sporting events and something related to Texas between the Windy guy from Harrisburg and the Snow Plow Driver from Dillsburg. Yes...Texas. We were talking about Texas man, we're talking about Texas. Texas. Not the Icon. Not the GFS. We're in here talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas...
Sensing this, I said to myself "you know what...you've been excited about next week's potential for a couple of weeks now. It's time to step up your game and do something about it." So, even though I needed to be in the office early, I stayed up until 1:30 this morning. I, yes I provided updates on the GFS. The GEM. The UKMET...and finally the Euro. I even posted a freaking snow map or two!!! I resurrected the threat next week after 18z went to hell. I brought it back to life.
Now, let's go! Already this morning, models don't look as epic as they did overnight. Let's keep the mojo flowing here!
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GFS, Euro, Ukmet and GEM all have huge east coast snows. Differences are where they jackpot...some to our south and some to our northeast. All of them have maxima measured in feet.
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Clean sweep by the overnight major league models - Euro is a solid 7-14" for much of our area, with parts of MD, VA & DE dealing with 18-24".
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Canadian is 6-12" for the LSV and an incredible 15-30" for MD/DE.
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Drool-worthy New England blizzard:
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GFS is MUCH better for the LSV. Looks like warning amounts, especially east of I81. Decent snows farther N&W.
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Icon tonight - seems like more and more guidance is showing this:
Central PA Winter 2024/2025
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
We pass out from other contributors but the overall result is the same!