WinstonSalemArlington

Letters from the year 2021

Unusually aggressive for RAH

Praise God for your detector. Consider doubling up on detectors in the house.

35 and storming in Winston-Salem

Hmmm that’s outlier cold

Disaster for Winston-Salem

Eric Webb: this trend of a slower SE Canada vortex flattens/suppresses the height field over the E US, shifting the track of the next storm later this week SEward w/ a relatively narrower rain-snow transition zone/less ice overall as mid-upper level forcing for descent weakens. https://t.co/rkMKzj8jq8 https://t.co/ntVYmcMLpc

I hope not. Unless the ice is sleet

Thanks. That really helps us understand how to detect a sleet sounding.

Any sleet in this region?

33 degrees and murky drizzle in Winston-Salem at noon. Why oh why??!!!

Uh huh, GFS

I would prefer cold and dry to torch or cold and wet/icy. But after an entire winter of cold and wet, even I would be happy for torch now.

Snow is overdone in southern vA and most of NoVA. It’s mostly brown ground north of Fredericksburg to DC, and south of Petersburg.

The western Dakotas are even angrier

Ice storm from Murphy to west of Greenville?

How did it perform last storm?

I sense that for some bizarre reason, Virginia thinks it’s cool to have an interstate go through a dense pine forest.

Iconic

FROM LARRY COSGROVE This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit. I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats. But it's going to take some time, this time!

Tell us!

Nope. Nope. Nope