The Iceman

1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said:

40% accuracy..... LOL that's worse than guessing....!  

Not quite, I haven't taken a statistics course in like 10 years but IIRC I think it would only be a .09% chance of guessing every one correct and 20.5% of guessing 4 correctly out of 10 so overall he hasn't done too shabby. 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

But the first flakes start at day 9. We got this my brotha.....reel it in!

Hey man I'm on board, celebrating a Super Bowl win with a MECS on that Monday would make this an A+ winter in my book.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only 12 days out! Surely this one won't go to shit in the next couple days...

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Dippin dots for whatever reason are becoming a common snow type(warming?) First solid memory of them was in the blizzard of 2006.

It had to happen- ECM with a borderline temperature Super Bowl/pre Bowl blizzard

 

 

More like driving rain storm ending as some sleet as the storm "creates it's own cold air"...those always work out well 

Woke up to between a dusting and a coating. I guess we'll call it .25". Shutout averted 

FV3 is night and day from 12z. I have no idea if this model sucks or not though.

The HRRR/RAP aren't enthused at all. Well south of the GFS/EURO. I'm guessing it's just a global hiccup run and it goes back south at 00z.

Snowed all afternoon but no accumulation. 3rd trace of the year. The 0.0 winter is still intact.

Getting some pity flakes now. Biggest event of the season!

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This thread title even failed..models have backed off significantly with the cold snap now have lows around 20 or upper teens at best this weekend with run of the mill BN high temps for this time of year. No pre-Christmas redux....even that has failed us. But we know the raging SER and warm looks in the LR will verify 100%. Please bring on May asap!

That’s fine by me. Stupid cold with a bare ground and no hope of snow just sucks. Hopefully it moderates to just slightly below freezing by the weekend then we slide into early spring the next week. Take this winter to the wood chipper. I’m ready for golf, fishing, and gardening.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Same...about.

We suck at winter. Can't even/struggle get a 1-3" clipper these days.

Greenskeeper will weenie me.

Birds -1.5 favorite....

 

I didn’t even get the pity flakes. I’m ready for the warm up, let’s just get through this weekend then hopefully early spring. I’ve accepted it just ain’t going to snow this year. That bastard groundhog better not see his shadow… 

41 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Well, wish me and the family luck.  Heading to Stowe tomorrow night for skiing Friday and Saturday.  Should be brutal, but hopefully pretty empty.  May just bag Saturday and ski for several hours Sunday before heading home.

I’ve ski’d up there in below zero temps before and really the only time it really got to me was if there was 20+ mph winds on top of it. It doesn’t look like that will be the case at least for now. Layer up to the max and it should be manageable. Nothing a couple hand/feet warmers can’t fix. 

Hurts needs to be much better in 2 weeks. Idk if it was the wind or what but he had 3+ overthrows that should have been big plays. You know Mahomes is going to make those, we need Jalen to keep pace with him. I feel we have a huge advantage defensively but they have a slight advantage offensively. Go Birds! I’d take no snow this year for another super bowl. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like some mood flakes in the wee hours of Wednesday morning up this way....at best. Not even worth losing sleep over. This winter wx is just horrendous in every way imaginable.

I had low expectations going into this winter as I pretty much thought below normal snow/ above normal temps for a variety of reasons but I really didn’t anticipate another all time ratter so close to 2019-2020. This area occasionally gets complete ratters(I’m talking <5 inches) but that interval is typically once a decade. Usually even a crappy winter has 10” of snow. To have 2 all time snowless winters in a 4 year period is unprecedented. Who knows maybe March will save the day, I’m not counting on it though.

2019-2020 redux

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looking forward to the 2 football games next Sunday, a rematch of last year's AFC conference title game (the team that wins that game will win the SB IMO-- go Bengals!) and the NFC conference title game.  The Eagles are lucky that the Niners are on their third string QB, if it was either of the other two QB I would favor the Niners to win even on the road (they are better in all phases of the game, including defense), but because Brock Purdy is their QB I don't think they can pull this one out.

 

Complete nonsense that the 49ers are better in "all phases of the game". Eagles have a significant advantage in the secondary which only grows wider if Maddox plays, a much deeper Dline (70 sacks this year compared to 44 for SF, 18.5 of which were Bosa alone), and by far the best offensive line in football.  49ers have an advantage at linebacker and running back and that's really it. Philly has been the better team all year and the only way Philly loses is if they beat themselves with turnovers. And that would still be the case if Jimmy G or Trey Lance were playing. People just can't accept the fact that the Eagles are one of the best and most complete teams in football this year. You'd think Giants fans would finally see the light after trying to convince themselves that last week would be a "close game".

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

12z GFS suppressed, but have we seen any digital blue modelled to our south this year?? I'll go with seasonal persistence and say the SER will trend stronger as we move up in time. I think we want the suppressed look for now.

It'll be "congrats Chicago" in 2 day's like the current CMC. Seriously though I think the 2 most likely scenario's are going to be either cutter or suppressed with the complete lack of blocking on the atlantic side. It's kind of a thread the needle situation for an all snow event because of that. It's probably our best chance in awhile though. Much better airmass in place though so if it cuts, should see a decent thump of snow/ice before the rain.

1.3" of complete rain yesterday. Not even a pity flake. 4.4" on the month now, certainly hasn't been dry... 

Looks like wave after wave of rain coming in the long range as the SE ridge flexes and won’t be denied. Wake me up in spring, hopefully this storm track stays in place so it’s a good severe season. I think philly and immediate burbs are going to pitch a shutout in the snowfall department this year.

12z euro only cut 95's snowfall down to .3" on Wednesday, down from 3-5"" at 00z. Can't say I didn't see it coming... GFS/NAM now are the snowiest models for 95 with 2". The rest have pity flakes to rain. GFS/NAM will probably come around to that soon.

Edit: was actually looking at 12z nam. 18z is snowless for pretty much everyone but the lehigh valley. So GFS on it's own....

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Officially. 25" snow today. Tied for largest event of the season. Total for the year a whopping .5"

25”? That’s a hell of a gradient! 

Looks like the changeover line passed through on CC but still all rain here  

Have seen more lightning than snowflakes this January. 

I see I didn't miss much the last 5 days... I guess I'll check back in another 5 days and see if anything has changed for the better. I've basically punted on this winter at least down here around 95, hoping to see at least one WWA level event, but not holding my breath. If you live in the N and W burbs though, there's a solid chance 1 of the next 3 storms delivers though at least a decent thump. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z gfs isn't far off from a trackable event for the 19th/20th. I would rate it as low probability right now, but a few shifts S of the HP or track of the slp and maybe:

 

Nice strong HP in a place where we want it, in late January, and it's still too warm for 95