The Iceman

1.8” in Levittown at midnight. May be closing in on 2” now but not going outside to check. 3 or 4” definitely seems manageable. All roads treated or not are snow covered around here. Definitely seems colder than was modeled.

Coating of pixie dust over all surfaces with very light snow currently. Any heavier echoes later on should accumulate quickly. Temp down to 26F. Radar looks good to our SW down in Baltimore and DC.

Light flurries have begun, surprised we didn’t have fight virga. 29F/ DP 5F 37% humidity 

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow depth maps historically verify better at this range. But you know this.

Then why hype the storm up last night using the 10:1 map when the snow depth map then was basically the same as it is now? Nothing has really changed in the NAMs guidance, if anything it’s further S with the mix line than it was last night… it didn’t “back down”. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This seems a little more realistic at least backing down from their 0z and 6z runs.

You’re posting the snow depth change map and not the 10:1 map you were using last night to say we got “NAM’d”. It’s essentially the same output as last night when you were hyping it up you’re just using a different map now to downplay things. Seriously check out the snow depth from 00z, nothing has changed from the NAM’s you’re just using a different product than you were using earlier…

My Holly’s latest call:

Pretty much in line what I think: 2-4” 95 corridor possibly ending as freezing rain or sleet. 3-5” in the NW burbs all snow. 1-3” S and E of 95 changing over eventually to a mix and dry slot. Should be a nice little event for all. I mean even if some of the other guidance is right about dry slot/mixing 2” should have already fallen at least which would be the biggest event in 2 years. I think this should be a everyone takes storm after 2 years…

3k nam would actually be awesome here… 4” of snow with .05-.1” of freezing rain to get a nice glacier in place. Starting to get a little excited now…. Would be a nice hopefully appetizer to get on the board this year. Right now I’m at .2”… 
 

My Holly first call: 

Lol why would anyone even bother looking at the GFS past 84… 

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Odd seeing the models in their opposite camps. Usually it's the GFS that's flat and OTS at this stage. And if the Euro has been guilty of anything in recent years, its been over amplifying systems on the EC in the medium to long range. 

Weenie handbook #43: "We just can't know!"

"whichever model shows the least amount of snow, go with that" tends to pan out more often than not.

cool so anywhere between 0"-9". 

Last time we had this 6 days out, it trended north over the coming days and LV got their solid storm. Watch this one do the opposite and it trends south so SNJ and DE get hit while 95 gets left high and dry. I'm half expecting it tbh.

18 minutes ago, geeter1 said:

No matter how bad they end their season the Birds will always be my team.  No fence sitters allowed.  Don't like the result,  find another team....

You can be a fan and acknowledge that this team fucking blows. Expect a quick exit next week with baker mayfield throwing for 400+. I think the entire coaching staff, Sirianni included, needs to be overhauled. If they don’t completely overhaul the staff, they are going to ruin another qb after giving him a huge contract and will be under .500 for years to come. I don’t know how they can even rebuild or retool the roster with their cap situation so they need to completely retool the staff. Otherwise there is going to be nothing but pain going forward. Really hope Kelce retires… this teams window is shut for years to come.

3 minutes ago, JimE said:

Tricky situation, though. Rain washes away the salt, but if the ground remains cold enough, the rain freezes on the surface. So it's a question of when, where, how much to put down. Some places are predicting small drops in temperature to 31, 32, 33 overnight which could make some roads treacherous tomorrow morning. These types of storms (snow to mix to rain to mix to rain to snow) are a challenge not only for forecasters but for road crews. 

My area isn’t even supposed to get below freezing though. We don’t have a WWA. It’s going to be above freezing when precip starts and won’t fall below freezing until Sunday night. Complete waste of money and resources in the 95 area.

Salt trucks out in full force this morning for what should be 99% rain here. Guessing the municipalities and pendot are itching to use some of their excess stock from the last 2+ years… what a waste though. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I actually preferred the shut-the-blinds pattern tbh. At least we werent wasting our time chasing our tails. This is becoming yet another one of those seasons where MR/LR offer teases which fall apart as lead times shorten. 

This pretty much has been a shut the blinds look and it looks to continue until at least MLK day at least for the coastal plain. I never bought in to this storm for 95 and burbs because the issues with cold air were pretty apparent even when it was showing snow in the MR. I expect most of the LV to be disappointed as well if they are anticipating a warning level event. 2-4” will be much more common than 4-8” with much more mixing than they currently expect. Poconos should do well though. Now if the block gets as strong as the models are indicating, I honestly expect we get a cold/dry pattern with a southern snowstorm or 2 before we see anything significant. I think late month coming out of the block offers our best potential. Unfortunately this winter is looking more 2016 than 2002. 

Still has nothing-burger written all over it for 95 areas imo. 10-15 miles N and W of should get a decent 3-6”. I’ll be surprised if we see an inch here though.

Expecting nothing but cold rain. Good luck n and w folks.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore?

surface temps are like in the lower 40's that's why. 

Only 372 hours out! The big ones are sniffed out early 

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My daffodils are coming along nicely 

Kind of related, my dad put down a fall blend grass seed wayyyy later than he should have, like the week before thanksgiving and I was giving him shit about it saying there's no way in hell that you're getting anything to sprout. Stopped by yesterday and sure enough there were a few spots that actually sprouted under the hay...

Yeah the good in the LR is you can see the STJ open up for business. The bad is + NAO and marginal airmasses mean most likely wet instead of white. However, if we see that train of gulf lows continue deeper into climo, it's hard to believe that one won't be wintry and as 2016 showed, you only need one to make it a memorable winter.

2.2” of rain, like Mike said above if it snowed at the end, I didn’t see it. Maybe January will deliver? 

Wind threat starting to emerge on Sunday Night... Won't be difficult to mix down if we get some convection.

Flizzard in Trenton