The Iceman

long range on the GEFS and EPS look awful. Ridge reloads after the 6-9th and we torch again. So one thread the needle event(90% fail) then more torching. Still time for changes but the magic pattern flip at mid month is looking to be in trouble...

Not being a downer but I’m not really seeing a great pattern being set up mid month right now at least on the ensembles. Better than the first 2 weeks of Jan? Sure, but that pattern looks pretty marginal mid month as opposed to close the blinds like this week+ as there just isn’t a ton of cold to work with. We are going to need to reload on that front to at least seasonable cold. Also, statistically there has only been 1 Nina at PHL with under 2” in December that finished above normal. Nina’s with under an inch in December, there’s only 2 that finished around normal(18.2” 1999-2000) and 18.3” (2008-09). I don’t think we get skunked this winter completely like 2019-2020 but I still think the scales are leaning towards below normal snowfall at least along 95. 

Getting a nice burst of snow now, grass starting to get coated. Wind is really roaring too. Nice ending to the storm.

I will believe when I see it. 99% of the time precip dries up before it's cold enough to change over. I'm expecting nothing more than some flurries. 

The system on the 28th bares watching imo. Several nice hits on the EPS and the 00z euro wasn't too far off from a hit. Honestly considering this last storm trended 500 miles west in one run, it's right where we want it

If it isn’t going to snow, I’d rather it be 60 degrees. Cold and dry sucks balls. 

King GFS is going to rule the day

IDK about anyone else but I trust the GEFS on ridge placement 7 days out over the CMC and ICON. 

2.3" of rain storm total. We were ripping fatties(rain drops) for several hours yesterday evening. 

BTW I'm on team "get on the board" with this system. I won't be disappointed with a 2-4" type storm. The pattern is ripe for a big dog but since I can only remember 1 white Christmas in my lifetime, I would really take anything that keeps the ground white through the 25th. That still looks very favorable at this junction. 

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but I'm not seeing major wholesale changes at 500 MB between yesterdays 12z GEFS + EPS and last nights 00z GEFS + EPS. OP's are going to swing wildly in this time range, I can't remember the last storm that didn't budge 7-8 days out... If things are still a mess come Monday though then it may be time to get worried but the ensembles are still showing big time white potential.

Euro is a solid hit for all but the coast.

lol

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You can see why the GFS made the change at the surface from 6z. Just look at how much sharper the PNA ridge becomes at 12z vs 6z:

GEFS also sharper with the trough out west

That is going to be one of the key players for this system.

that 12z GFS run is a weenie run of the season so far  Back to back SECS 3 days apart. Jan/Feb could be an all out torch and I'd be satisfied with winter if that solution comes to fruition. 

Zero snow, straight over to sleet and rain 34F. 

I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well.

00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with.

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Off topic: it is evident in my posts i am having lots of typos. I think i could use some advice. Im using a galaxy s22 and using their samsung internet. When I have the auto correct and/or word suggestion turned on I literally cant type anything...it just keeps getting wonky and wont allow me to type at all. Not sure if it is wonky on other sites input boxes too. When turned off tho, no problem whatsoever.

Any suggestions? Btw, I dont like using tapatalk, i dont care for the interface.

Buy an Iphone  

Good luck to those in the NW areas but this event is a nothing burger around 95, if not for timing around the morning rush, I doubt we even see the WWA's.

Looking long term...I fail to see how this 500 MB look results in a pre-christmas cutter, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's that if there's a will there's a way...

Just now, RedSky said:

GFS has a Miller A fantasy hit 12/23

 

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

I'll check back where we are after the weekend, impossible to make judgements this far out in either direction. So much can change in the next 72 hours. Nice to see a parade of threats lining up in the long range though.

Have to love the parade of threats in the long range on that 6z GFS. Chances are 1 of them have to deliver. 

Just now, The Iceman said:

Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition. 

 

GEFS isn't bad either, not as pronounced +PNA but still much better than we are currently working with.

Starting to like the potential from the 20th-30th. 

Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition. 

54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I would pay money for the GFS 384hr fantasy storm setup a week before Xmas 

 

Same here, 17th is my bday so I'd kill for a storm over that weekend. Set up looks a lot better than the first half of the month with more ridging out west, not perfect by any means but enough to potentially do the job. Still think the following week will be the one to watch though as the ridging out west looks to only improve from there. Now just have to hope it moves forward in time and doesn't keep getting pushed back.