gymengineer
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Posts posted by gymengineer
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5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:
This week has really woken me back up to pay attention to weather again. I stopped being active here after the last several times the rug was pulled out from under me and just sort of let the weather do what it will do.
But this week I'm back and hooked on the excitement, and the kiddo has enjyoed the heck out of the sledding!
Excited to see fresh snow on snow, I think I've only seen that once in my life? haha
I am very glad that you are back; we've overlapped in years of posting. I stopped being active here after the 2020/2021 season. There were so many actual Winter Storm Warnings issued that far unperformed that season that I just didn't feel like following the weather anymore. But, I guess this season is pulling me back as well.
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If DCA manages 3” tomorrow, they’ll be past 50% of their seasonal climo.
Then, they would need 13.4” the rest of the season to get to 150%- doable in one storm if this season ends up ultimately following analogs. Or, with just 2 moderate storms…
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Annapolis is forecast in the very short term to end up with higher water levels than Connie (1955) and Fran (1996). Isabel is first with the Chesapeake/Potomac Hurricane being second (1933), and this forecast for the upcoming high tide would be third.
Cambridge, MD, is forecast in the very short term to end up with the second highest water level behind Isabel.
This storm is still playing out in terms of effects throughout the region.
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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:
If those are the peak gusts at the end of this - the earlier modest model run gusts (other than the NAM) did exceptionally well. It's interesting that as we closed in today, the models got much more aggressive.
Just my opinion- DCA at 52 mph is a pretty impressive SE wind considering Isabel’s peak gust wasn’t that much higher at 58 mph. (Irene and Sandy’s winds were in more common directions.) IAD actually slightly exceeded Isabel’s highest gust there. The sustained winds were of course more impressive in Isabel.
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DCA- 52 mph
IAD- 49 mph
BWI- 47 mph
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https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=axtv2
Alexandria flooding exceeding guidance for this high tide cycle. -
Driver rescued this morning clinging to a tree: https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/12/noreaster-bringing-rain-winds-chilly-temps-to-dc-area/
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39 minutes ago, rjvanals said:
Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac
I grew up in Potomac and vividly remember this event as well. The severe weather knocked out power in my neighborhood before the flip. The winds kept being gusty after the flip so it was a very wintry couple of hours. Most of it melted by morning.
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Preliminary recorded wind gust of 205 mph:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-10-31-hurricane-otis-extreme-wind-preliminary-report
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The 18Z GFS fantasy hurricane manages to outdo Gilbert for Jamaica, repeat a version of Flora for Cuba, and then Cleo for Miami all in one journey .
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The Lidia (10/10/23 landfall), Norma (10/21/23 landfall), Otis (10/25/23 landfall) sequence has got to be a record or tied a record for most hurricane landfalls in a single country in that short period of time, right?
Let alone the more astonishing fact of a Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfall separated by only 15 days in a single country- I can’t imagine that that’s ever happened in recorded history.
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From npr today- Conditions are grim in the city. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/27/1208982615/acapulco-mexico-hurricane-otis
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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit.
13 NS since Aug 20 is a record.
WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (13)
Hurricanes: 6 (5)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina
Seriously, though, this is one of those instances where it feels like someone controls the weather, not predicts it. I mean that in the best way possible. Just wow.
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It’s already 22 mph/G 31 mph with the arrival of the first rain band at DCA. Not hard to imagine getting to frequent 40 mph+ gusts tomorrow at that location.
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62 kt surface from a dropsonde in the SW band…maintaining. Ophelia was modeled to be a pulse-y storm with center jumps, etc. We happened to witness one very quick pulse up because of the timing of recon.
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From 992 mb for the 2 pm advisory to 987/986 mb in about an hour and 15 minutes.
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Just now, jbenedet said:
Not sure why so little interest in this.
Convection now wrapping over the CoC. Very interesting 12 hours in play.
The Mid-Atlantic thread on this is moving quicker.
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Yup, almost as soon as the plane reached the northwest side: hurricane-force flight level winds and 60+ kt unflagged SFMR
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TS Ophelia-60 mph
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1 minute ago, mob1 said:
Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude.
The winds are decent on the east side too with only low clouds. I wonder what they’ll find in the northwest side.
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The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far.
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That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain?
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5 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:
When were those records set? Isabel? Sandy? Or maybe Ash Wednesday if the records go back that far?
The record at Lewes was set by the January 2016 blizzard, which displaced the previous record from Ash Wednesday.
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I know people have pointed out issues with these gust products, but here are the "peak" panels from various 12Z model runs:
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230923-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/maryland/gusts-mph/20230923-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230924-0300z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230924-0000z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/can/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230923-2100z.html
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January Discobs 2024
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
More DCA stuff- yesterday morning marked the most consecutive days of 1” snow cover since 1/16. 8 days consecutive beats 1/19.