PhineasC

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Or where I go sledding…north of caribou, now that’s the real deal! 

Randolph is already far enough. The drive all the way up to north of Caribou is brutal from MD.

We can get a direct flight to Manchester but not Burlington or Caribou, which is part of why we bought in NH instead of northern VT.

I would love to be up there though. Nice area.

GFS is more amped, if anything. Doesn't look like the NAM.

He's big mad now.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd be rooting for one of those 190-200 inch winters....they prob happen every 3-5 years there, but it can be streaky too. Sometimes you'll get 2 or 3 in a row and then you'll have to wait 5-6 seasons.

Mostly though, I'd get grouchy at melt-outs and those have been a problem this year. Sometimes, you just miss snow events but at least what snow that falls, keeps staying around and adds up slowly over time. But years like this have had a lot of melting and cutters which really sucks for winter sports. Last year had the horrific Xmas cutter, but at least once that was done, there wasn't another nasty one until maybe March? So the snow depths got pretty good up there.

Pack was way better last year. My 2-3' pack lasted like 2 weeks and then completely melted out. Then I built up to a foot or so and it melted out again. All before the second week of March. There is a lot more to winter here than the raw number on the snow tracker site... but some don't get it, I guess.

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea his 115 inches of snow wasn't enough for a guy who left 20 on average behind 

Don't like the posts, don't read them. You don't need to keep playing board daddy scolding everyone, you know. LOL

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Enjoy your 10"

Any snow is good, but I was hoping for a real monster bomb to bring a lot more terrain online up here. 10" followed by days of 35 degrees and bright sun isn't going to do much aside from resurface the groomers, at least, which will be good.

Makes sense that the storm would move east to nail SNE while giving NNE less QPF. Seems reasonable to me based on how most of these events go.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You and Alex might do well since a lot of the snow is on a N to NW wind....even during the synoptic snow portion and not just the upslope. Hopefully it doesn't amp back up and cause rain issues....if it doesn't, you can prob score double digits.

Yeah that's a good direction here and definitely for Alex. He gets screwed a little sometimes on the east-flow events. BW needs this one really badly.

Hopefully it juices up even more as we get into the last 48 hours.

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This thing is absolutely booking along. Like 6 hrs of precip and done.

SNE gets dry slotted on some of these runs. Up here it is a decent duration since the upslope continues for a while after the low is gone.

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Sooooo close.

DC is in the snow.

That's mythical snow down there.

Cold air chasing rain never works for them.

At best a slushy coating on mulch as the low departs.

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snooze fest except for Vermont over to northern New Hampshire northern Maine.

The way it should be.   

06z GFS/NAM look good. 

CMC appears to be a NNE crusher.

Solid upslope signal for this one after the main low passes. That can add another several inches of fluff.

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Did the GFS trend east? 

It did a little bit for up here. Some more breathing room. 

In NYC it's over for sure. 

00z is better here than 18z for sure. Nice hit.

Light snow here. 25 degrees. 

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The weaker, less phased version has always been a possibility.  12"+ is hard to do... 1"+ QPF as snow is hard to do.  Nice moderate snow event on the 00z NAM.

Wrong thread.  

Big shift east on the NAM.

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That will go back west at 0z….can almost guarantee it. 

Euro has been steady for up here several cycles now. It may be wobbling down on the margins, but here it has been locked in with variations in QPF.

Euro is another big hit here.

18z GEFS mean looks better here than 12z. 

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I just looked more into the wind/flow and all the snow profile is NW flow behind the FROPA.  It’s not like an east flow coastal.

10AM Sat on 18z GFS.  You can see the ESE flow is under the warm air at 850mb, not snow profile.  Then where wind streamlines go NW behind the front is where it starts snowing.

You can see the frontal position in the streamlines.  Looks like everyone will need wind to go NW in this to flip to snow.  Anyone seeing E/SE flow will be in the warm sector and N/NW will be cold sector.  Both here and there, it’ll start snowing when the wind goes NW as the front will be through.

Makes sense. Glad I do well on NW flow too. Not a shadowing direction. 

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Or rain right through.  18z NAM was a wet day Saturday.  Changes over late here but not ideal.

4pm Sat

I am hoping that is just the NAM being over amped at range. Globals and ensembles still look good. Far from a locked in setup tho. All rain is on the table still. 

18z GFS looks similar to 12z. Drier, but probably just noise.

I am right on the line but I assume this will be a SE/E flow event? It'll be rain right up to Gorham.