wxduncan

Latest HRRR does not bad.

Where are you at in Burke County?

Did not look at them how does that bold for us?

I know it might not mean much but the new SREF mean went from 1.98 inches to 3.87 inches of snow for Hickory. We shall see I really do hope so.

If you two don't mind since we kind of close to each other let me when you snow falling and your temp/wet bulb if you have time.

If me and you get about 2.5 to 3 inches think we should be happy at least it would meet the warning criteria unlike last time.

Same here but my temp is 45 like WTF.... Whats our timeframe for your area and say Morganton(5mins way from me) and Valdese?

If NAM is wrong and I mean wrong and the HRRR is correct I be ok with that. We shall see GSP going to have to make some changes if that does happen.

That's what I been hoping for with this storm in Valdese just 3 inches. I only have about 2 and half weeks before I move to Buffalo want to see something here lived here for the last 27 years.

Man I hope so I really don't care about a huge snow. If I can get about 3 inches I would be happy that seems to be about the amount you need on the ground for my kids and me and my wife to have some good fun.

New forecast maps from GSP not to long ago: Edit Note these are latest ones if you seen before I edited those were from 6pm.

My point and click was just updated sometime by GSP for Valdese was 1-2 at 6pm when I last checked now says the following: Saturday Night

Yeah it will be but I look at it this way better pay/job. And better Winters

If we can avoid the Warm Nose this could happen for Hickory west. We shall see so glad to be moving to Buffalo later this Month for a new Job will be beat winter down here lol.

TBH give me 3 inches with this storm and I would be happy. And be done with winter. After this storm we don't get something with this setup coming up over the next week or two we are running out of chances.

Maybe GSP see something different or just is not buying the nam those totals are not bad 3-4 for my area. Can't wait to read there discussion late tonight.

Then that's a different story yeah I would be worried because that's 4 plus models versus 1 model. So to me changes nothing sure NAM is good at showing the Warm Nose but no reason to cliff dive I could care less if I get Snow or not been like this for years. God speed not worried at all. Stating my opinion.

Still every other model looks good for western NC besides the NAM. Not to worried unless they trend toward the NAM. Rather have all the other short range plus euro etc in my corner then one model which is NAM. Don't give up and cliff dive....

Hope we do good here in Valdese(Burke County) area. Just worried about the dry slot and being in the lee. But as of now totals look good here what's your guys thoughts?

Snowfall Totals From 00Z Euro Tonight:

The faster track reduce totals for western nc or no?

Mountains and the Northern Foothills(Burke Caldwell McDowell) have there own winter storm warning calling for 12-16 inches. NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-081000- /O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 345 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches. Ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch are also possible along and south of I-40. * WHERE...The northern mountains and foothills of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult or even impossible. Road conditions will deteriorate Saturday night, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. A few power outages will occur. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday: Confidence remains high on winter storm reaching peak intensity late Saturday night and Sunday morning, with the 12z guidance cycle having changed little in terms of the general setup for CAD interacting with coastal low pressure. At the start of the period Saturday evening, low-level warm advection will be starting to set up, but not yet having warmed temps in the midlevels. Therefore a relatively straightforward rain-snow split is expected initially, based on sfc temp. Nonetheless, used the Top-Down technique to produce the p-type trends throughout the period. Profiles aloft are already expected to be nearly isothermal, and near 0C, over a fairly deep layer. Slight warming occurs overnight which will introduce enough of a warm nose to permit sleet to mix in by daybreak, if not sooner, across the periphery of the colder air. The deepest forcing and moisture is expected to occur early Sunday, with precip rates peaking to match. For most of western NC this still looks to translate into heavy snow. Even using relatively low SLRs to account for the isothermal profiles, rates meeting or exceeding 2 inches in 3 hours are expected throughout the morning. Sfc temps remain very important as the warm nose continues to strengthen. The raw models, which normally are the best choice during a wedge, mostly depict temperatures staying above freezing in the areas where the warm nose strengthens enough to support a change from snow to sleet or FZRA. So while temps were initially populated with raw values, they were adjusted down closer to wet-bulb temps. While the NAM has trended somewhat warmer at the surface, its warm nose is not nearly as strong as it previously progged. This puts it in line with the GFS/EC/Canadian at the sites where we were able to sample vertical profiles. The consensus still does support the warming later in the day, so the pure-snow area shrinks to the northern NC mtns/Piedmont as we progress through Sunday. Some areas of GA and the Upstate are even expected to warm slightly above freezing, which should result in precip changing over to rain again. The warming is expected to continue into Sunday evening as the sfc low pushes offshore and the wedge weakens a tad--while the pressure pattern reflects less wedging we will still have some weak WAA in place. As previously advertised, precip chances diminish only to the chance range, as a upper-level deformation zone begins to cross the area. The models continue to depict spotty (but appreciable) QPF lasting through Monday, and the GFS/EC both now depict yet another cutoff 500mb low swinging into the Southeast on the heels of the first wave. PoPs decline gradually Monday night but this may eventually prove too fast in light of the trends with that next wave. Heavy snow and/or sleet accumulation is still forecast in our western North Carolina zones north of the Black Mountains and east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the adjacent SC zones--i.e., the areas that were already in a Winter Storm Watch. Therefore all of these zones will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning effective 00z Sunday. We dicussed the possibility of hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the CWFA, given sleet/ice accums that end up below warning criteria, but certainly enough to have impact. However, with the temps aloft and at the sfc being especially critical, even a slight increase in QPF or warming of profiles could result in some of these areas reaching warning criteria on tonight`s forecast package. Thus we will give the next shift the option of upgrading these areas to warning instead of advisory. Even after the current warning expires at noon Monday, an eventual Winter Weather Advisory likely will be needed for some or all of the area on account of poor road conditions likely lingering into Tuesday. &&

Right below you in Burke county in Valdese feel the same way. https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1071132659710091264

If this trend continues my area going to be in 7 or lower zone. :|