wxduncan

Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT?

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... .Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western North Carolina. NCZ035-502-504-506-071730- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches expected. * WHERE...Alexander, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke and Eastern McDowell Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as Saturday evening, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday: Confidence is high enough on significant snow/wintry precip in the heart of the expected cold air damming, that after collaboration with WFO RNK, portions of the watch have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. The rest of the watch will be left as is, as there is still some time to fine tune details. Overall, no big surprises in the 00z guidance. If anything, they`ve trended a little wetter. Adequate QPF for winter storm warning criteria accums is not an issue. The two biggest concerns are the evolution of a warm nose above the CAD, and the sfc-based warm layer around the periphery of the wedge. These will determine the p-type thru the event. I opted to take a 50/50 blend of the GFS/NAM profiles. The NAM has the much stronger warm nose, bringing it even into the central NC mountains for a time on Sunday. So precip should start expanding north and east across the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Thermal profiles suggest most of the precip will start out as rain, except in the central and northern mountains and adjacent foothills in NC. By early Saturday evening, CAD should be really strengthening across the Piedmont, as precip rates will be at their highest and the ~1036 mb parent high reaches PA. The wedge looks to advect enough cold/dry air to wet-bulb temps down into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the entire Piedmont by daybreak Sunday. This will be about the time the warm nose will punch in from the east, resulting in a wintry mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile, most of the I-40 corridor looks to remain all snow. The sfc low will track from the FL panhandle east to off the Georgia coast by Sunday aftn. The NAM has a dry air punching in from the southwest, which could cut off ice nuclei activation and turn snow/sleet to freezing rain/drizzle. However, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all seem to keep deeper moisture within a developing deformation zone thru Sunday night. For now, I keep ice nuclei active thru the event. This allows snow totals to continue to pile up. Finally, Sunday night thru Monday, as the sfc low deepens off the Carolina coast, cold air spills in behind the circulation and should erode the warm nose aloft. Thermal profiles turn into ra/sn, with some snow possible across even in the southern Upstate. However, precip rates should be very light by this point. Temps will hover mainly in the 28-35 deg range Sunday thru Sunday night, then rebound slightly on the back side of the system on Monday to the upper 30s to lower 40s. We have expanded the watch to include the GA and SC mountains, along with a tier of zones from Pickens to York County in SC, where climatologically in CAD events should get higher wintry accums. While the rest of the GA and SC Piedmont is still too low confidence for a watch, but may need an advisory once the event is within 24 hours. Given the upward trend in QPF. Impacts from the combination of what is expected to be a very wet snow, and icing in some areas, look to be significant. Very windy conditions are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, which makes falling trees and power lines likely. &&

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 327 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY... .Low pressure will track from the southwest U.S., to the Gulf Coast states through Saturday while cold high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. This low will then move off the southeast coast Sunday into Monday. With the colder air in place, a prolonged period of mostly snow is expected, starting as early as Saturday night, and lasting into Monday. Some mix of sleet may occur across southeast sections as well. Based on the forecast track, the heaviest snow is expected to occur across northwest North Carolina into southern Virginia. NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015-071630- /O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0005.181209T0000Z-181210T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0007.181209T0000Z-181210T1600Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney 327 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible near the Blue Ridge. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Power outages may also occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$

Euro Run Snowfall Totals for tonight's 00Z Run

Thank you man still in the 12 plus range so brad Ps forecast of 9-14 feels about right for my area giving tonight's run just waiting on how euro stacks up.

Could you post up snowfall total map for western NC?

My bad for some reason I thought you was down in Rutherford county below me. Edit: Still think we are both fine unless something drastic happens in our 48 hour less window before go time.

We are still in good shape easily 8-12 maybe towards 14 inches. Even with the bump south. :) Brad P even said areas in the Foothills and Mountains could see local 20 inch amounts :P

The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas.

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment I was thinking the very same thing. I'm just east of you in Morganton area and thought it looked like a all snow profile. What gives? Do we toss the run and you still think GSP forecast for our 2 county's is on par still?

Never seen GSP put those kind of totals out before getting real around here!

Latest from GSP:

Good to hear I'm really pulling for at least 12+ I could care less about those 15-25 totals just want a foot that would be amazing for around here.

Looks find for the foothills and mountains will surpass a yearly average easily with those totals(even cut in half). On to the next runs.

Newest map updates from WPC: Day 4: Day 5:

I live just west of Hickory in that bright green spot center in burke lord that would be a lifetime total for me.

wow 24 inch bullseye over burke county I like my spot :)