NeonPeon

That band over Delaware is seriously impressive.

3" of the squeaky stuff. Gusts to 30 and just steadily increasing.

That band off shore is racing in. Going to feel that one then head to bed. Winds have definitely increased recently. Snowing sideways in gusts.

I don't get the analogy at all. Going to the Superbowl 18-0 is something that happened. You already won a lot. You might not win in future, but those things happened. Being modeled to have good snow is a predictive model of what might happen based on imperfect information, imperfect understanding, and imperfect modeling. Nothing happened. The fact that what will happen will absolutely not verify verbatim doesn't mean anything about whether you'd rather be there or not, other than the psychology of it. Or is that what you mean, that you'd rather expect something mediocre and be pleasantly surprised? Because that's how I go into every storm based on caveman pattern recognition and climo.

You can see how these bands are going to pivot now, but the have and have lesses... Undetermined. I have my guess though. Up to 2 inches. Very very wet.

It's almost like they move from SW to NE?

There are def going to be power issues here if wind verifies. The snow is so wet right now. There is more snow on my neighbors siding than on the ground.

I'm pretty sure the outside existed though, and windows, no?

Nice. I just got back from the Southern Adirondacks for some cross country at Lapland lake, I booked in a couple trips because the last couple winters didn't exist down here. This winter has delivered here, and delivered at least 8 inches of snow both times I went to the Adirondacks as well. It's really healing me.

Light snow has commenced here in Newport. Wind has that building feel. Here we go.

I'm going to have a hard time going to sleep, I am going from radar to window watching like I'm a dog whose owner is about to come home.

I demand a refund, you promised 3 more inches!

The gfs depiction is very similar to what it was when it was being stubborn and the others were out to sea.

I'm seeing the familiar banding pattern set up. Subsidence will be over the bay. It'll still be a great storm, even if you don't jack. Right now I'm guessing 12 inches for me. I can't think of a single proper noreaster where mesoscale forecasting was better news than the broad brush look.

I don't mind a tick back. Some of the more tucked solutions, like ukie start to bring ptype issues into play, and I don't like that. The logic is always that you make up for it on the back end,but where I live, you usually don't.

The utter trauma. Look at that. Just look at it. 2.2 inches, feet of snow 5 miles away in any direction.

Can we please keep the politics out of the snow, now it's all brown and gross.

I don't know it looks ugly, need to close off the eastern eye wall and deal with the dry air entrainment.

Their justification is as below, and makes sense: 12z GFS remains the strong outlier when compared to other models and brings coastal storm right over 40/70 benchmark,which if it verifies, would bring widespread heavy snow and strong winds to much of SNE. We`re also still seeing a very large spread in GFS ensemble members and Canadian/ECMWF ensembles as well, so forecast confidence in any particular solution is not very high. GFS solution is not completely supported by other guidance but we have noted more of a NW trend; consensus is for a weaker downstream ridge which results in a slightly farther offshore pass but still brings heavy snow and strong winds to Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coast. This would also bring accumulating snow to much of SNE, but not the extreme amounts as seen on some model snow maps that have been making the rounds these past few days. Since we are most confident on 6"+ totals on Cape Cod and the South Coast, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for these areas. We considered also including more of RI and SE MA given recent trend but decided to hold off for now given spread in ensemble members. Keep in mind if we see continue to see a NW trend in guidance, the Watch will likewise need to be expanded to include more of SNE, at least into more or RI and eastern MA including Providence and Boston. We`re just not quite ready to buy into that just yet.

The snow was very impressive in that first thump as I drove across the border into NY on I90. Big cats paws in any bit of elevation.

It does get exhausting, the thousands of international tourists coming and every one of them asking one thing: how do I get to the middle of nowhere in northern Connecticut, I've heard so much about it.

Surely the fact that we are all a bunch of hysterical loons isn't part of any good policy analysis. More information is more information. We might not be able to resist the allure of overreaction, but surely a professional just waits and looks at a few runs, and the information is more current, and the effect is the same. I mean, I've seen people on here saying why hasn't box done x y or z, when their information doesn't match, and they are clearly just waiting for more info to confirm, rather than oversteering.

Cheers, yes, that's basically the plan.

Any advice on how dumb it is to drive from RI to upstate NY tomorrow leaving first thing in the Am... i90 and i87 for 95% of it. The ZR threat seems later in the day for the most part, am I reading this right. I think I´ll have some moderate snow later in the drive but not crazy?

The depiction from GFS has been pretty steadfast across quite a lot of runs.