dwagner88

I smell a large amount of incoming hail damage claims in Nashville. Looks nasty.

Just now, PowellVolz said:

 

 

 

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Is. . . is that crayon?

5.25" storm total for me. Biggest rain event since I moved into this house in 2019. 

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s not a legit outbreak until Cullman is under a warning.




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I wonder if they experience higher than normal rates for home insurance. Seems like they are always under the gun.

So far the name of the game with this event has been heavy freaking rain. MRX pulled the trigger for a FFW for the southern valley. It was needed. After our bout of heavy rain yesterday morning, there were bound to be problems with this much convection interacting with a stalled warm front.

7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Sunshine south knoxville any clue where the warm front is.

Appears to be just NE of Birmingham. It has been stalled in that location for about 3 hours. Hope it stays there.

DP shot up to 59 here around 30 minutes ago, but has now fallen back to 57. Might be a good omen.

I don't like the storm motion. They are all aimed straight up I-59 directly at SE TN. We really need that warm front to remain where it is. 

The Euro and the GFS are not at all in the same camp this weekend. The Euro says bust out the life rafts with 6-8" widespread over my corner of the state. The GFS has less than 1" qpf with the heavier totals along I-40. Either way, I'm expecting to see a hydro outlook from MRX any time now.

Temp has dropped to 33 and sleet has changed to pure rain. I’m going to bed. I’ll think about getting a new hobby tonight. This winter has really taken it out of me. 

There are 60 dbz returns on HTX radar approaching Lynchburg. Marked as snow on precipitation depiction. That would be incredible if true. I have to imagine there is some sleet in it though. 

 Northern Alabama is getting absolutely pasted right now. 

Temp is down to 34.7. DP, however, is up to 31.8. I think that’s it for me. I can’t wetbulb below 32 anymore. 

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

Sleet snow mix 37 in loudon

I’m down to 36 with the same conditions. Nothing liquid is falling anymore. Just sleet with the occasional wet flake. 

I can hear more sleet hitting the windows here. Temp is down to 37, but I’m almost saturated. 

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Cullman is North of Birmingham

Yes. And west of southern portions of the plateau. There are no topographical barriers to the west blocking cold air. 

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

From Twitter, pic out of Cullman, AL... 

Not sure how much relevance this has for the valley. Cullman is on the west side of the plateau and has more access to low level cold air than we do. 

I can now confirm a very light sleet rain mixture. 

Just checked here, nothing falling yet. Temp is blazing at 39. 

8 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Are you dropping though since it began to get dark? My temp topped out at 41, it's mostly cloudy here and my temp is still falling down to 37 now with DP 24.7.

 

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 Not really. I’ve been stalled at 41 for around an hour, and my DP is 28. Unless something magical happens dynamically overhead, rain is coming. 

The cloud cover seemed to time itself perfectly to maximize the amount of solar heat that could be absorbed here. It’s now fully cloudy and 41. Ready for my 33 degree rain. 

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:

Was just about to post that the sun is shining brightly again.

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Now it’s cleared back up in Knoxville


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Same here. Up 6 degrees in the last hour. Now above freezing at 33.1. GFS may have been right. We could hit 50 today at this rate.

I have high "fish scale" clouds racing in from the south, but they are thin enough to allow plenty of sunlight through. Temp is climbing quickly. Up to 24 from a low of 17 despite a light NE wind.

Bottomed out at 17.1 here but it’s now 17.6. The last GFS I looked at torched us to 48 this afternoon before quickly crashing back to 33 as precip started. I find that very hard to believe. There is zero cloud cover here, so it’s possible I guess if we hold on to full sunshine all day.