dwagner88

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Not what you wanna see right now after the last day or so...18z GFS

 Can I cut this one in half? Or maybe thirds?

I’ve reached 32 IMBY with broken clouds overhead. I’m not usually a big believer in radiational cooling before a precipitation event, but after 5 years of whiffs I’ll take what I can get. 

Extended range looks horrible. Continual heavy rain events. 

9 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Powell...I assume this map is tomorrow night, early Sunday?

Yes. I would at the minimum cut this in half. We won't get 10:1 anywhere except the highest elevations.

There was a coating of slush on my back deck this morning. Ground was too warm for any accumulation. It's snowing lightly at work in Cleveland right now.

4” overnight will pretty much shut Chattanooga down at this point. We already had quite a bit of flooding with the first round mid morning today. 

There is an alarming amount of rain on all of the globals over the next 8 days or so. Double digit totals seem possible for many. I suspect that we could make a run for the wettest month on record if the overall pattern doesn’t change soon. 

Hammering down right now. Over 2” for the day. Looks like plenty more to come. 

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Janet is correct...area flood warning was issued when a flash flood warning should have been first. Areal is for steady rises...which was not the case.

MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life. 

The radar does not look good for Knoxville. The convective cluster in southern middle TN needs to take on a more northerly motion right now. Looks to me like there may be an MCV forming causing the more easterly motion.

Most of the globals did not have a good handle on the rain this evening even as late as the 12z runs today. GFS had me at around 0.10" by this time. I'm quickly closing in on 1". 

Some parts of Chattanooga had hail accumulation from the strong cell that came through last night.

6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up.

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I work for TDOT. We had a crew parked on the shoulder of hwy 64 today just to respond quickly to small slides. There were already 2 this morning along parksville lake. One was starting to encroach on the westbound lane. There will be more by the end of the week. 

Thunder IMBY now. There is a lot of instability, but evidently not much forcing. Precip rates are pretty light. Only 0.30” here all day so far. Lots of thunder though. 

I’ve been in Polk Co at work all morning. It’s been sleeting on and off since I got here. Obvious bright banding on the radar means a changeover is iminent. 

37 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

so yesterday the TN river at Savannah was expected to rise to 390 feet (major 387) the 24th . just updated now says 385 and change....so they either plan on releasing less water from pickwick or expected less rainfall....or maybe both

 

 

As a basin average, it looks like expected totals for this week have dropped about 10-15%. I suspect the reduction in crest is due to that alone. It is, however, very difficult to predict runoff amounts with such a thoroughly saturated ground. I’m happy to see modeling reduce the extreme rain amounts shown over the weekend, but I would like to see some model consensus on a clear ending to this crappy wet pattern. 

49 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Uptick QPF a bit further on the 00z. I hope this busts.

That far NW corner of north Georgia is in the south chickamauga creek watershed. That creek represents the largest flood threat to the Chattanooga metro. It was impounded with levees after the 1973 floods. The last time they were tested was May 2003. We could have a comparable crest to that event next week. 

I don’t think I can remember ever seeing this much rain forecast with so little convection. Of the roughly 10” qpf at KCHA forecast next week, only 1.50” is convective on the 12Z GFS.  Probably means the likelihood of totals busting high or low is minimal. 

45 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro keeps upping totals. Hour 240 total precip. 

12z vs 0z. 

 

I think it has to be somewhat overdone, but even cut by 1/3rd these totals would be a lot for 10 days. 

 

It’s worth pointing out that it is still raining heavily in the last frame on the euro. Crazy stuff from the models. Hope it’s wrong. 

The miss this weekend worries me a bit for the southern portion of our forum area. From a climo perspective, the areas of NC that cashed in big time are very unlikely to have another snowfall of a similar size this year. This worries me because systems that create decent snows in the southern valley almost always create even better snows in those same areas of NC. Basically, if we were to get hammered in this area later in the winter, a lot of NC would break seasonal records downstream from us. This seems quite improbable. I hope we didn’t just waste our best shot. 

Been a while since I’ve checked in over here. It’s been wet. Extremely wet. To the point that I am very concerned about the development of freezing fog overnight. I am now over 60” of rain IMBY for the year. Had close to 4” of wasted 38 degree qpf from the big system this weekend and today. 

15.3" of rain on my project site in Ducktown, TN in the last 30 days. I'm ready for some dry weather, but it doesn't look likely any time soon. Good POP's every day except Saturday.

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Shift to the W on the Euro this afternoonThat's a large cone for our area, so there is alot of uncertainty for the Valley for the exact track.

The western track still keeps the valley on the dirty side of the storm. It will be a rainmaker as long as it doesn’t go to the east of the Apps. 

A pretty severe flash flooding event is setting up over Chattanooga tonight. Training cells + saturated ground = trouble. Rapidly approaching 3" in the bucket and getting torrential rain right now. 

Dwag!  You gonna go chasing on the Skyway again this winter?  Good to see you posting man.

If I get a chance I will. I'm now an employee for TDOT, and my jurisdiction includes Mcminn, Bradley, and Polk counties, so I won't get much opportunity to work in Monroe. Polk has some good mountains for chasing, but none of the roads are paved. Right now I'm working on stabilizing a rock slide in the Ocoee gorge.

Maybe we can make it through a winter event here without having to hear about CAD!