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snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take: “Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”
  3. snowman19
    This ++PMM setting more records….
  4. snowman19
    This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:
  5. snowman19
    I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them Edit: @mitchnick As big as the warm temperature departures are going to be this winter
  6. snowman19
    Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C
  7. snowman19
    He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015
  8. snowman19
    There are many more. Absolute clown show on there
  9. snowman19
    One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest
  10. snowman19
    The strong low frequency (El Nino) forcing is totally different from what we saw back in 2015. The MC and eastern IO is completely shutdown and has been since spring, courtesy of the severely east-based super Nino, weak MJO, due to the Nino overwhelming everything, the entire 30C warm pool is moved all the way to 140W and the +IOD is reinforcing all of this. The ++PMM is also helping to lock it in
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Still a disconnect between NOAA and the Australian BOM on the official weekly RONI number…..not huge (little over 0.3) but still a difference none the less….CPC has it at +2.5C and the BOM has it at +2.8C Here’s the traditional ONI anomaly, the absolute temperature remains over 30C, which is also record-breaking:
  14. snowman19
    Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years
  15. snowman19
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