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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    “The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system. The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    ^ “I have a feeling after this upcoming WWB, we're going to see the atmosphere-ocean system in a very classic-looking El Niño state. Increased easterly anomalies across the Indian Ocean will probably also shift things to a more +IOD state. EPS weeklies have an extremely classic-looking El Niño standing wave setting up, with rising motion across the East/Central Pacific and sinking air across the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Also, the EPS weeklies show above-normal westerly shear across the Atlantic for the entire 6-week forecast. Even brief Kelvin waves/MJO passages don't really seem to break that. The windows for Atlantic tropical development this year may be few and far between.”
  6. snowman19
    How do you explain the +AAM, -SOI, convective (low frequency) standing wave, WWBs/westerlies, raging STJ? Those are all blatant Nino atmospheric coupling responses
  7. snowman19
    Massive +AAM spike coming and an El Nino standing wave is developing. It’s absolutely coupling (ocean-atmosphere) and coupling strongly Per Paul Roundy we are about to pull ahead of 1997
  8. snowman19
    “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.”
  9. snowman19
    “Southern Oscillation Index is the most negative it has been with the current #ElNiño event. The subsurface warmth will continue to surface taking the SOI even more negative in time. This is the ocean/atmospheric coupling that is necessary. This is why it was important to recognize that El Niño impacts (not equal or the same everywhere) were going to occur much sooner than the "fall/winter narrative"
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  13. snowman19
    The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..
  14. snowman19
    @stormchaserchuck1 It not only looks like 1997, the far eastern subsurface is actually warmer than 1997 was now:
  15. snowman19
    That KW is a monster
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