snowman19

I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December

FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event

We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface

The new EURO SEAS5 continues with a strong +IOD developing. Given all the other current antecedent conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere, there is going to be no limit to how much this Niño strengthens and couples from here on out. It would not surprise me if the MEI reaches or surpasses +2 come August….

Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44

We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:

@Lakepaste25

The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….

This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point: “+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent. A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause. The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts. Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback. However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.” ^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

“The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”

Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….

Since we are very likely going to be in uncharted territory by early November with the warm pool pushed all the way to 140W (along with a record-breaking super El Niño in place for that matter), we aren’t going to know how the atmosphere reacts to that massive change in the global heat budget and the realignment of the ENSO Hadley Cell….where does it put the main forcing/standing wave convection? How far east does it go? We are going to have to wait and see what happens at that point in time….

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall… @LakePaste25 30kt westerlies to 120W lol