snowman19

I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong?

Further:

After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO

Further:

After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO

So do the mets at the CPC

The cool down looks like it is going to be as brief as the warmth next week, EPS starts warming the pattern up again by the Equinox (3/20)

The EPS starts warming it back up again by the Equinox (3/20)….

Well, we had the long awaited SSW, wind reversal and SPV split, however, it looks like the stratosphere and troposphere are going to stay completely uncoupled, no downwelling. Total disconnect between the two. Frans Nucera: “There is no propagation, the blocks are not created by the splitting of the polar vortex but by the troposphere which is not even reactive enough to create them under these conditions”

Well, we had the long awaited SSW, wind reversal and SPV split, however, it looks like the stratosphere and troposphere are going to stay completely uncoupled, no downwelling. Total disconnect between the two. Frans Nucera: “There is no propagation, the blocks are not created by the splitting of the polar vortex but by the troposphere which is not even reactive enough to create them under these conditions”:

The sun actually feels warm in the car again. First time since early November. 51 degrees and sunny here. Snow and ice melt galore, even in the shade. I feel like doing an Irish square dance! Spring is coming on fast!

Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look

That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska)

That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events….

Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those….