snowman19

My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD

Once you get to 3/15, Mother Nature takes care of it for you within a couple of days or less….

This winter in the NYC metro area (at least as far as snow is concerned) came to an end on 2/23 with the blizzard

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños

I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining

If the new EPS is correct, it’s going to get very warm again the 1st week of April

EPS is projecting a TC or possibly a pair/twin TC’s to develop within the big WWB. What happens with those could be very important in terms of how strong this El Niño gets down the road…..

I let my Pivotal subscription expire on 3/15

It’s going to snow again in NYC….you’re just going to have to wait until December. It’ll be here before you know it……

Worse. More like their version of 2001-02. The warmth out there has been off the charts

Denver has been in a relentless, unmitigated torch fest since November and it’s still going strong. Record shattering for 5 months in a row out there

Eric Webb just got even more bullish, said that if we see TC’s spin up along this record breaking WWB, it will seal the deal for a super El Niño. I think even more telling, is that you have Paul Roundy, who is the furthest thing from a hypester, saying this has a good chance to be the strongest El Niño in history, he also says this is developing as the most east-based/East Pacific event we’ve seen since the 1997-98 super Nino

That’s what I was thinking too….it may take a historic ENSO event to finally flip the unrelenting, stagnant Pacific. It’s been over 20 years (1997-98) since we’ve had a true, “super”, east-based/East Pacific El Niño. I guess the ‘we’re due’ argument would fit here, since 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, not east-based/EP

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen