snowman19

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be

At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible

IMO this is either a hit or south and OTS. Warm/cutter or runner is off the table. Extremely confident in that

Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run

Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week

The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now

It’s not worth taking any of these model runs seriously until Wednesday and Thursday no matter what they show

I don’t know what to make of Sun-Mon TBH. @bluewave did a write up on the pattern that’s going to be place at that point this morning over in the NYC forum

Not saying it can’t happen, but the models have been awful with showing the MJO propagating into phase 8 since late November only to have it fail. I guess all we can do is wait and see if it holds and is real this time

Show me where I predicted a super La Niña or a blowtorch you utter clown. Remember your epic bust with MJO phase 8 for 30 days back in December? @MJO812 Enjoy the rain this coming week

Nope. As usual, you are dead wrong. Par for the course with you

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++