Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,413

  • Joined

About snowman19

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

Recent Profile Visitors

52,595 profile views
  1. snowman19
    Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter @forkyfork
  2. snowman19
    Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs
  3. snowman19
    Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region
  4. snowman19
    ^ Holy GLAAM! I may have underestimated the MEI. Given this extreme coupling, it may have already hit +2 this month, I was thinking August. Now, I think we rival, if not exceed the all time highest MEI on record of +2.9 (set during the 1982-83 super El Niño). Breaking the all time traditional ONI and RONI is a guarantee
  5. snowman19
    This Nino is about to go nuclear: ^ IMO the subsurface peaks at or around +12C. And the EURO keeps getting stronger with the next WWB forecast for August, which is going to cause another DWKW: Here comes the NH coupling: The IOD is now officially positive: And the “ELI” ENSO Longitude Index, which measures how far east or west the deep convection/forcing (standing wave) is, is now in 2nd place for the furthest east on record to date. Only, you guessed it, 1997, was further east and not by much. With the 30C isotherm east of the dateline, it’s virtually guaranteed that this year takes 1st place on that index soon for having the furthest east main tropical convective forcing: ELI: @LakePaste25
  6. snowman19
    As expected:
  7. snowman19
    I think we see a completely overpowering, historic strength STJ this fall and winter. Raging and very likely stronger than the STJ we saw back in 1997-98….Reasoning: 1) ++PMM 2) +QBO @EasternLI (Research paper) 3) Record-breaking super El Niño The QBO actually flipped negative by the 1997-98 winter, which I believe resulted in the -NAO/-AO blocking bouts. I believe it also helped to tame the STJ a bit, which was obviously on roids anyway, but could have been worse with a +QBO
  8. snowman19
    Historic TC season in the PAC inbound thanks to El Niño, and these are just going to keep the WWBs in full swing….
  9. snowman19
    Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….
  10. snowman19
    Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:
  11. snowman19
    IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Very strong coupling with the Nino standing wave convection/forcing: As anticipated, the EPAC has come alive
  15. snowman19
    A new CCSR/IRI update indicates [emoji305] A clear bias toward a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the fall of 2026. [emoji409] The highest probabilities reach around 84% during September and October. [emoji408] The multi-model average predicts a peak for the index of +1.5°C, with some individual scenarios higher
×
×
  • Create New...