snowman19

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in?

Well that does it….DT is “woofing” about a Miller A KU up the coast next week. When he does that, he dooms it. I don’t know who’s the bigger kiss of death….him, Moregarbage, or JB

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

That MEI number is proof of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) La Niña

My question is this….Are we possibly missing an elephant in the room here? I think there is another underlying reason other than the virtually nonexistent STJ (from La Niñas) that the last couple of winters have had a total lack of “KU”, coastal bombs in this region….the Gulf Stream. Look at how anomalously far south/east and well off shore it has been….it pushes the baroclinic zone way far east and south. Also, the unusual, very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east, well off shore along the displaced Gulf Stream

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?

The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a rapid, total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @GaWx @PhiEaglesfan712

I’m becoming very confident that there is going to be a SE ridge for February, the question will be how much of a SE ridge that month?

The risk I see is that the -EPO ridge sets up too far to the west (post 1/20) and causes a trough over the west coast

Yea, I would expect a different story in New England since you guys do better in Nina’s

At least in my area, there have really been no blockbuster February’s for snow during La Nina’s going all the way back to the 1950’s. Really the only lone exception was 2013-14, but that was cold-neutral not La Niña. March however is a different story….

This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February: