Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,102

  • Joined

About snowman19

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

Recent Profile Visitors

50,073 profile views
  1. snowman19
    ^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”
  2. snowman19
    You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting
  3. snowman19
    This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.”
  4. snowman19
    IMO the Niña-like MJO (IO) forcing comes to an end with this El Niño once the +IOD gets established. The standing wave Nino/+IOD forcing combo is going to cause the eastern IO SSTs to upwell and cool off, causing subsidence in that region
  5. snowman19
    Yea, this one is developing as a “Costero”/coastal (east-based, EP) El Niño event. According to the South American Mets, we haven’t seen anything like this since 1997
  6. snowman19
    From a South American Met: ^ Translation: “This is the magnitude of how deep—and therefore how long-lasting—the warming of the ocean floor near our coasts is. We're talking about 100 meters or more in its most significant part and nearly 500 in its verifiable depth. All that warm anomaly is advancing toward the South American coastal edge. There's little the APS can do, as noted (APS=South Pacific Anticyclone) We haven't seen anything like this since 1997. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the most relevant one, why there's so much information about a major #ElNiño event on the horizon.”
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  9. snowman19
    +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
  10. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
  11. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  14. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  15. snowman19
    Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C
×
×
  • Create New...