snowman19

This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

@bluewave Holy ++PMM

Huge SOI crash continuing, strongly negative. -30’s for the last 3 days. 30 day average is negative and continuing to fall

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….

Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative

These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:

These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..

The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……

Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat