snowman19

Hail and heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Wind gusts easily over 50mph. Saw towering cumulus congestus just before it started. No lightning or thunder here yet

@40/70 Benchmark Judah agrees with you

I mean your forecast looks very good so far. Mid-January aside, the twitter fantasy that this is a carbon copy of last year at this time and that we are about to go right back into an exact replica of the start of January last year, is completely absurd

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January

The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s,

Yes. Late developing Miller B’s (which very strongly favor New England) with that look? Sure. Juiced Miller A KU’s coming up out of the Gulf and burying the I-95 corridor BAL-DC-PHL-NYC, which is what BAMWX was insinuating? No way

As depicted, that is not a classic KU, blockbuster coastal storm pattern as they claim. Where’s the +PNA to force meridional flow? BAMWX is all about getting clout/attention, likes, follows, subscription money, views and retweets

I think part of what helped December, 2010 was El Nino “hangover” from the very healthy Nino the winter before, so you still had some semblance of a southern stream/STJ around at that point

Especially given the -PNA and the very amplified PAC jet crashing into the PAC NW, that would make sense (omega ridge rolled over further east from the dead center of the CONUS position) that the models show right now

Chris, are there even any analogs for what the models are projecting for next week into the first few days of January? It’s extremely anomalous like you said…huge Aleutian ridge (-WPO), out of phase +EPO, strong -PNA, -NAO, neutral/negative AO and a massive omega ridge/omega block dead center of the CONUS?

The upcoming -NAO (Christmas week into New Year’s week) is projected to be east-based, in addition, the PAC looks like straight garbage and you have a huge omega ridge dead center of the CONUS, an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) with a +EPO and a very strong -PNA. So if you are looking to stay cool and avoid a “torch” in the east, that will work out fine then, the -NAO will keep the east cool, no “torch”. If you are looking for east coast snowstorms/nor’easters, it looks absolutely awful

I’m not seeing a way out (yet) from a canonical Niña February, I’ll reserve my final opinion once we are into January. That said, if there is in fact a major SSWE in February like you think there will be, with the lag, I would think that would/could affect March more so than February, especially if it occurs closer to mid-February (i.e. 2018)

It’s an east-based -NAO

We are and have been in a classic, canonical La Niña pattern since September 1st. It’s been fitting a “front-end loaded” Niña to a tee up to this point in time…..