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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
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    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    Yep. This El Niño has no resemblance whatsoever to 1997 lol
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive
  4. snowman19
    We disagree but that’s ok
  5. snowman19
    I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998
  6. snowman19
    This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:
  7. snowman19
    Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously (record) east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO
  8. snowman19
    The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks: ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C
  9. snowman19
    +12C subsurface is ridiculous. I’m thinking the subsurface peaks around +13C/+14C The fact that we reached an absolute temperature of 30C in region 3.4 and over +5C in region 1+2 are equally as ridiculous stats
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    This WWB is record-breaking, much, much stronger and much further east than the massive one we had back in October, 1997. It’s going to spawn another DWKW and cause a big warming burst again in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4
  12. snowman19
    Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”
  13. snowman19
    This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    We are seeing the strengthening +IOD state constructively interfering with the very strong El Niño low frequency forcing, which is overwhelming the MJO signal, something you’d expect to see with a super event. And also as expected, this Nino has become the most east-based event on record and we have hit +12C in the subsurface (courtesy of the record WWBs and DWKWs), something I have suspected for months, along with the 30C isotherm propagating to 140W
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