snowman19

I guess maybe you missed the part where I was only speaking in terms of ENSO, not any of the other stuff you mentioned? @GaWx Ummm no, that is not what I was implying at all. I’ll say it again, I was speaking only of the ENSO evolution

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either @donsutherland1 EDIT: GEPS held serve @MJO812 Your wishcasting isn’t going to turn this into a snowstorm

It’s pretty uncanny (at least so far) how close we’ve been following the 16-17 La Niña evolution….weak Niña, very strong -IOD in the fall, now the “under the radar” EWB and SOI spike right around the same times in January. Then the big WWB afterwards and total La Niña collapse….assuming this one (WWB) ends up being comparable to 2017. This latest EWB and SOI spike definitely did some damage though, huge SST drop in region 3.4 with the upwelling and there’s real healthy tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts

The GFS “blizzard” yesterday was a real leg slapper lol Go with the EPS :-)

The GFS is a pure, unadulterated garbage model. By far, the worst of the worst. NWS should stop running it until it gets fixed. Complete and utter embarrassment of a model

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS EDIT: GEPS not robust at all

Hi! Remember this doozy from you back on December 19, 2010:

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in?

Well that does it….DT is “woofing” about a Miller A KU up the coast next week. When he does that, he dooms it. I don’t know who’s the bigger kiss of death….him, Moregarbage, or JB

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

That MEI number is proof of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) La Niña