Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,498

  • Joined

About snowman19

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

Recent Profile Visitors

54,265 profile views
  1. snowman19
    Still a disconnect between NOAA and the Australian BOM on the official weekly RONI number…..not huge (little over 0.3) but still a difference none the less….CPC has it at +2.5C and the BOM has it at +2.8C Here’s the traditional ONI anomaly, the absolute temperature remains over 30C, which is also record-breaking:
  2. snowman19
    Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it
  5. snowman19
    Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag, +IOD…….
  8. snowman19 started following Winter 2026-2027 Speculation
  9. snowman19
    Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE
  10. snowman19
    An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption
  11. snowman19
    A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one. I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    This extreme warmth is about to be realized at the surface come December. The +4C December peak being shown by the EURO is absolutely believable and very likely
  14. snowman19
    It’s now official. For the 1st time ever in recorded weather history, Nino region 3.4 went above 30C (absolute temperature). If there was any little doubt left that this is going to be an all-time record El Niño, this settled it @bluewave
  15. snowman19
    Once we saw the complete trade wind reversal and the record-breaking WWBs/DWKWs this spring along with the full-scale propagation east of the 30C warm pool, I knew this thing was going to shoot to the moon. The DWKWs breaking at the South American coast and the ++PMM were the clues that it was going to be severely east-based. The +IOD forming also fell right into place this fall too, as was expected, so no shock there
  16. snowman19
    IMO the subsurface hits +13C next month
×
×
  • Create New...