snowman19

@so_whats_happening

As I recall, in order of most likely to least likely to have a SSWE during winter: El Niño/-QBO, La Niña/-QBO, El Niño/+QBO, La Niña/+QBO

My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD

Once you get to 3/15, Mother Nature takes care of it for you within a couple of days or less….

This winter in the NYC metro area (at least as far as snow is concerned) came to an end on 2/23 with the blizzard

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños

I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining

If the new EPS is correct, it’s going to get very warm again the 1st week of April

EPS is projecting a TC or possibly a pair/twin TC’s to develop within the big WWB. What happens with those could be very important in terms of how strong this El Niño gets down the road…..

I let my Pivotal subscription expire on 3/15

It’s going to snow again in NYC….you’re just going to have to wait until December. It’ll be here before you know it……

Worse. More like their version of 2001-02. The warmth out there has been off the charts