snowman19

Wow….

You remind me of Patrick Star from SpongeBob SquarePants

Verbatim, showing a very strong +IOD developing, along with a continued ++PMM…

This is starting to look like the “perfect storm” for causing a Bjerknes feedback loop/coupling to develop, which would cause this El Niño to become self-sustaining and self-reinforcing. We have the current record WWB/DWKW, coupled with the projected high amp, strong MJO wave propagating into the Pacific also supporting westerlies in the ENSO regions, a very strong +PMM, a developing +IOD and the “triplet” TC’s/typhoons in the PAC (causing another massive WWB/DWKW behind them)….

For the first time in a long time, a high amp, strong MJO wave is projected to move into phases 7 and 8 come mid-month

The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC….

IMO this is going to be a high-end strong El Niño at minimum with the chances of a super event growing very quickly

If these projections for the next few weeks are correct, we are going to see westerlies in the ENSO regions take over and “couple” (ocean-atmosphere) with Bjerknes feedback getting established

This is huge and it’s going to cause another massive WWB and very likely start “Bjerknes feedback”:

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

“Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”