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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD
  5. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    Yea, that’s not cold. Solar irradiance from the roaring STJ
  8. snowman19
    IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important
  9. snowman19
    Latest SOI: -35.29 In other news, this El Niño has become severely east-based. There are confirmed, historic anomalies of +7.2C off the coast of Peru in region 1+2, which is a new all time record, surpassing both 1997 and 1982. And as @Gawx predicted, very rapid warming of the SSTs in region 3.4, OISST ONI: +1.2C, RONI: +0.73C. With this major WWB ongoing, it would not surprise me if we are into a high-end moderate/strong Nino (RONI/ONI) by the end of this month
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    Very good job by the modeling of predicting this big WWB well in advance just like they did back in April:
  13. snowman19
    Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch
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