snowman19

Yes, that SOI correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niña’s. Unfortunately JB spread false info about it years ago and many people (apparently even some mets) believed him

Mike is completely wrong about big SOI drops in winter corresponding to strengthening/energizing the STJ and causing big east coast snow storms and arctic outbreaks. That correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niñas. So Mike is spreading false info just like JB does for likes, follows, attention, retweets and subscribers. He may want to actually research the SOI correlation before he goes posting nonsense about it on twitter And furthermore, he’s dead wrong about another thing, we have not been seeing classic split-flow. That is an El Niño feature where the jet splits into 2 branches off the west coast with a dominant southern stream (STJ) and a very weak polar jet. We have a very dominant northern branch and a very muted southern branch, typical of a Niña. That tweet was full of fake news and reads like a New York Post article

Maybe we should use El Niño analogs! I’m thinking 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10, 14-15

At this point I don’t think the question is “will December be cold?”. Very likely to average cold. I think the bigger, million dollar question will be snow. As of right now, the pattern does not look conducive at all for east coast, I-95 corridor snowstorms. I agree with your take in the post you made earlier in that regard. If December ends up colder than normal with below average snow, I think most on here would consider that a loss

If that’s correct, a cold look for sure. A coastal storm pattern, not so much (++NAO/flat PNA). Maybe fast moving, progressive clippers? EDIT: @EastonSN+ Snowfall in -WPO patterns vs -EPO patterns is a good question. @donsutherland1 is the man to ask about that

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave

That’s exactly what the GEFS is showing; an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO) as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime (-EPO)…..

Verbatim, it’s showing an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO), if it goes poleward, as is being shown, it would tap cross-polar flow/arctic air into western Canada

Zip zero

Yea, that northern fringe being shown over our area is very likely virga that can’t be resolved on global models at this range. The airmass that’s going to be over us is going to be extremely dry and is going to “eat up” the QPF

Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

34 degrees and all rain in Sloatsburg. Started as snow, maybe 1/4 inch, then quickly went to sleet/snow/rain for about an hour, then rain

Nothing has changed in days. This was always an Orange-Sussex-Putnam snow event. As per usual, the only place that thought this was going to somehow be an I-95 corridor snowstorm were the usual suspects on twitter. If you listened to them, the I-95 corridor would have 300 inches of snow every winter