snowman19

This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do

I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally

The EPS mean is 7 inches for NYC more for Long Island

I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh

Even if this ends up as a 6-10 inch storm and the GFS is overdoing it, it will still end up scoring a coup. It was the only operational model to never completely lose it

Welp, I will say this with confidence, if this turns into another GFS fail, that model will be totally done and regarded as junk for a very long time in the eyes of many people….including a lot of pro mets….

The worst rug pull over the last 4 years was December, 2022. That month was primed to rival December, 2010. The only thing that ruined it was the severely negative PNA with a full latitude trough down to Baja (PAC/La Nina/-PDO issues again)…,everything else was absolutely textbook….huge west-based -NAO block, -AO, 50/50 low, -EPO, -WPO, true arctic air in place. Had the PNA even just been less negative, that month would have very likely been epic with at least one KU, if not more than one…..

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames

The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close

No it’s not. For the love of God, stop this

It’s just showing a flat, fast moving open wave….doesn't even have a surface low reflection

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be