snowman19

This is huge and it’s going to cause another massive WWB and very likely start “Bjerknes feedback”:

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

“Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”

Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing @bluewave

Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997

I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….