snowman19

It’s all hypothetical speculation at this point. Long, long way to go before we can say with any confidence if this is going to be a super El Niño event or not. Then, if (IF) it does in fact become a super event….is it east-based (82-83, 97-98)? Or basin-wide (15-16)? Paul Roundy is extremely confident that this El Niño at least STARTS as an east-based event regardless of strength, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess right now…..

The 97-98 super Nino winter actually wasn’t a huge torch. It was just too warm to snow. There were a bunch of coastal storms with temps in the 30’s. The problem was it was extremely east-based, region 1+2 was over +4.0C, a secondary area of convective forcing formed there, which completely displaced the Aleutian Low over Alaska (++EPO) and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter long with PAC air inundating Canada and the CONUS

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

If (IF) there’s actually a super El Niño (region 3.4 over +2.0C), it’s very, very unlikely to be a cold winter. Snow is a different matter, since one major KU can skew the entire winter (i.e., 82-83, 15-16). 97-98 was a total dud for snow obviously

Let it go, let it goCan't hold it back anymoreLet it go, let it goTurn away and slam the doorI don't care what they're going to sayLet the storm rage onThe cold never bothered me anyway Let it go, let it go…..

The National Weather Service disagrees. Here is the 2:00pm updated disco: “The cold front should move through early Thursday morning, so after a relatively mild Wednesday night with lows in the 40s, winds switch quickly to the NW as a continental polar air mass moves in. High temps in the 50s will likely be achieved in the morning, with temps falling into the 40s after fropa, and then to the upper 20s and 30s Thu night. Post-frontal rain showers could mix with or change to wet snow showers just before precip ends. Boundary temps will be noticeably milder than aloft, so any wet snowflakes will have difficulty accumulating. Liquid precipitation amounts are likely to range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with the higher amts from NYC north/west where stronger showers/thunderstorms are expected.” Forecast for Rockland County: “Thursday Rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Temperature falling to around 40 by 9am. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.”

Winter’s back is broken. All the snowcover is gone, snow mounds/piles are gone. Birds are all back, out singing in the morning. Groundhogs, skunks and chipmunks are out of hibernation. Peepers are back out at night. Flies and bees are out today. Mother Nature says winter is over….

Another period of warmth after next week’s cooldown…

It’s gone already on the 6z GFS. But given those antecedent conditions/boundary layer temps on the Equinox, you would need the off shore coastal low to absolutely bomb out quickly, with very strong UVVs (lift) and strong dynamic cooling to the surface to get any snow out of that

It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!

74 degrees, bright sunshine, warmest temps here since October