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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    Here is the latest sea level height rise anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC. The only comparable El Niño event since 1980 at this point in time is 1997
  4. snowman19
    Yes. It is extremely well coupled….SOI, OLR/standing wave convection, WWBs/westerlies and GLAAM. Once the +IOD really going the coupling is only going to increase more Record high GLAAM:
  5. snowman19
    That didn’t last long….SOI right back down to almost -20
  6. snowman19
    WWB time:
  7. snowman19
    You almost forgot 57-58 and 65-66 lol Every time there’s an El Niño, no mater what, the weenie’s fantasy analogs are: 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15!!! As predictable as the rising sun!
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks
  12. snowman19
    Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)
  13. snowman19
    The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September
  14. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  15. snowman19
    Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time
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