snowman19

My opinion…..Given the that this La Niña has been a classic, front-loaded event up to this point, I would not be surprised by a colder than normal January, we’ve been colder than normal since November. That said, I would definitely be shocked if Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar are all colder than normal. Color me very skeptical of all 5 months in a row being below normal for temps. We haven’t seen a La Niña do that since 1995-96 (which was a very anomalous, atypical Niña with a strong +PDO) and I just don’t see that happening

FROPA

Has anyone seen or heard from @Allsnow? He’s usually very active on here during the winter. I really hope he’s ok. Very unusual not to see him posting

Given the amount of rock salt and calcium they dumped all over the roads yesterday, I doubt we see a big widespread freezing rain fest. It takes very anomalous conditions for those anyway and that’s why they are so rare around here

I’m still of the strong opinion that we are going to need your possible big stratospheric shakeup to avoid a canonical La Niña February. That’s the only reason/way I see that we would deviate from what has been a classic front-loaded Niña winter since the end of November

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past

Correct

The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

My final call is 4-6 total for area. I’m going with the op EURO and EPS

@CoastalWx I can’t believe there’s still people peddling 6-12 and 8-12 forecasts for the NYC metro area. They are going to bust hard. The QPF never supported those amounts, the speed doesn’t, the ratios never supported it and now the new meso model runs (high res RGEM and 3K/12K NAM) are showing a very strong mid-level warm nose and turn it into a sleet-a-rama even well north and west of the city

The only thing the NAM is good for is accurately showing warm noses. It surprisingly excels in WAA events. Other than that, it’s completely useless

Warm noses are always underestimated at this range. The fact that the mesos (hi res RGEM/NAM) are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way north of NYC is a red flag. They turn it into a sleet fest. Ignore at your own risk. Globals (GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET, EURO) are not going to pick on it as good as the mesos. Today is the day to take them seriously. Larry Cosgrove said many years ago ‘do not ignore the meso models showing mid-level warm noses in a WAA event they are usually right’

The 6z hi res RGEM and the 6z 3K and 12K NAM runs are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way up into Rockland, Orange, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen, Westchester. The Ptype goes to a sleet fest. This should be taken seriously due to the fact this is a WAA event