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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  2. snowman19
    +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
  3. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
  4. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  7. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  8. snowman19
    Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C
  9. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  10. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  11. snowman19
    And this will spawn another DWKW
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
  14. snowman19
    Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI
  15. snowman19
    If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI
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