snowman19

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8. Thank you

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

Just to make sure I have your post correct, it’s your prediction that the MJO is going to stay in phase 8 the entire month of December? So 31 days in phase 8?

Nothing has changed since yesterday. This is still a snowstorm once you get 40 miles or more north and northwest of the city (Orange, Sussex and Putnam). South of there is a snow/mix to rain. Not really sure why the 0z run of the op EURO is getting posted this morning instead of the new 6z run, which is clearly coming more into line with all the other guidance. It was the most SE of all other guidance at 0z and therefore was an outlier. This was/is in no way, shape or form a NYC snowstorm

It looks like you are going to have to be 40+ miles N and NW of NYC (Orange, Sussex, Putnam) to get into accumulating snow from this one

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant

If the +EPO/AK vortex happens then yea, it’s eventually going to scour out the arctic cold from Canada and the CONUS and we’re going to get Pacific origin air. The +PNA and -NAO would prevent it from getting really warm in the east, but since we are at the mercy of the PAC, the -NAO block would trap the PAC air underneath

@donsutherland1 Out of curiosity, do you have any temp/precip composites for +EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO Decembers?

The EPS and and GEPS caved to the GEFS on the +EPO/Alaskan vortex by the 2nd week of December, but they go +PNA/-NAO so it keeps the east under a trough GEFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025112900&fh=288&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 GEPS, EPS:

And just to add to this, if (IF) the GEFS is correct that a +EPO/Alaskan vortex pattern takes shape the 2nd week of December, it makes perfect sense that there will still be cold in the CONUS and Canada at that point. It’s not a light switch flip to immediate warmth, that would come later. A +EPO would cut off cross-polar flow and the Pacific floodgates would open. It would take some time for all the cold to get scoured out of Canada and the CONUS but it would happen, again, assuming the GEFS has the right idea @donsutherland1 Edit: @brooklynwx99 Yes it would be serviceable for awhile until the cold got scoured out, but eventually all a -NAO block would do in the GEFS scenario (+EPO/AK vortex) is trap Pacific maritime air underneath the block

That wasn’t my point. I was responding to Don’s post that the GEFS is insistent on a +EPO pattern taking hold the 2nd week of December, which it clearly is. It’s putting a huge vortex over Alaska and has been for several runs in a row

The GEFS is insistent on putting a huge 500dm vortex right over Alaska the 2nd week of December. Several runs in a row now https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2025112812&fh=282&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That proves absolutely nothing. It is still a classic wave reflection event. Nothing has changed. It’s nowhere close to a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split. Read the tweets I posted from real meteorologists. But if you want to believe the hype from a quack from PA who failed out of met school, go right ahead

“It is wrong to think that the weak polar vortex is having effects on the weather. It is a misreading of the situation. There is no vertical propagation from the high stratosphere. At 150 hPa it is the response of the lower stratosphere to the tropospheric dynamics that dominate” “You can have a polar vortex as weak as you want, but it remains just a definition (if the jet doesn't pass at 60°N..); if there is no propagation, it has no effects. The only thing is that a weak vortex is a preconditioning factor but not a determining one.”

The meteorologist who posted that tweet is actually a huge cold/snow weenie and usually finds any excuse to go cold/snowy. He is actually the furthest thing from a warmista. As far as the MJO going into a clean phase 8 with amplitude, without any destructive interference from the standing wave by the Maritime Continent….I’ll believe it when I see it. We have played this game before with MJO phase 8 (23-24) and we lost badly. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but as of right now, color me skeptical