snowman19
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
HPN
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Rockland County
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm “The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.” -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This El Niño just started Even JB admits it’s coming -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Like 1982-83 and 1997-98, I expect this one to be east-based/EP too. I think we end up exceeding the 1982-83 RONI of +2.5C. And I do believe the traditional ONI ends up near +3.0C. Everything is screaming that this is going to be a top 3 super El Niño. As far as snowfall, that’s always the wildcard, especially with super Ninos where we saw the 1983 and 2016 monsters up the coast…. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Despite the wishcasting by a select few weenies on twitter trying their best to wishcast a super El Niño away by saying there is no atmospheric coupling, the actual facts and reality tell a completely different story….there is actually strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) and it is projected to stay that way: -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much…. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Wow…. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Incorrect -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.
