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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
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    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120E by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow:
  2. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2074089660733661350?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  3. snowman19
    Unlike 2015, region 4 is actually consistently cooling. Crankywxguy pointed this out the other day. It is nowhere near as warm as 2015, not even close. This is the animation since April, with a consistent, pronounced cooling in region 4. It’s actually on the verge of dropping below weak El Niño levels to neutral/La Nada @roardog
  4. snowman19
    New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3
  5. snowman19
    Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    The difference between this Nino and 2023, even 2015 are night and day. We have seen a complete trade wind reversal this year along with relentless WWBs/westerlies since April and it’s going to continue as far as the eye can see, augmented by the TC’s and the MJO progression this month. This year, unlike 2023 or even 2015 for that matter, we are seeing the WWBs and DWKWs easily propagating east of the dateline. 2023 and 2015 actually saw EWBs even up to this point in time and the trade winds just kept fighting back….this year….nope, not even close. @csnavywx pointed this out about a month ago. This El Niño is just going to continue to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content with nothing to counter it, right through this fall
  8. snowman19
    https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2073779464975098028?s=20 Also of note, the EURO, once again, shows a strong +IOD this fall and it keeps the ++PMM going
  9. snowman19
    Regardless of what happens with November and January, the signal for this coming December based on the last 46 years (1980) of climo for El Niño/+QBO, very strongly favors that month being warmer than normal
  10. snowman19
    @Gawx Here comes the +AAM surge
  11. snowman19
    Deep -OLR between 170E and 120W indicates El Niño standing wave convection in the central Pacific, convection is way more intense than normal, this also shows upper level divergence in that area, while the +OLR over Indonesia, indicates upper level convergence and suppression/subsidence. This is all consistent with a flip of the Walker circulation and very strong El Niño coupling (ocean-atmosphere); Bjerknes feedback
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  14. snowman19
    Yea, not a surprise since the EPAC tropical season doesn’t normally get going in full force until July, normal climo. All indications are that this is going to be a huge EPAC TC season
  15. snowman19
    Here comes the EPAC TC parade…..
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