snowman19

Max: 21 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying?

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday

Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else

100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames

The operational GFS at 280 hours….what could possibly go wrong???

The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter…..

Maintaining a snowpack in early-mid February is generally easy as long as temps aren’t way above freezing. Once we get to 2/21 and beyond, you start to get daytime/sun melt even when temps are below freezing

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

Even if the stratosphere doesn’t work out this month you have nothing to be upset about. You did a great job since November and were extremely accurate up to this point in time. If it doesn’t work out then oh well, you got the last 3+ months right

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

He’s the biggest moron I’ve ever come across in my life. Hands down. If you put his brain in a bird it would fly backwards and upside down

If this was a couple of weeks from now, today’s temps would have overperformed by even more. Post 2/20 is when full sun and lack of CAA really starts to have an effect