snowman19

There are big questions right now as to whether this stratospheric warming event next month even downwells and couples with the troposphere

On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it

@donsutherland1 No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….

It’s not out that far on Pivotal yet. The AIFS is showing 3-5 in the area, higher numbers NW of the city

It’s starting to look like more of a Tuesday-Wednesday event than a Monday event

Now the models are suddenly trying to turn Sunday into an “event”. Very light….1-2, 1-3 mainly N and W of the city. I’ve never seen the models flip flop and suddenly change and in some cases flat out bust horribly in the short term as much as they have been this winter in all my years of being a weather hobbyist

I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff

Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox), I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be a NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..

Since March is 4 days away I figured I’d start a March thread. Discuss….

So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

Where did I say NYC isn’t getting a foot? The RGEM has a foot in the city. As far as what the NAM has been selling? Throw it in the trash, it’s going to start backing down and playing catch up. There’s a reason why the NAM/SREF are getting retired this year and it’s not because it’s good. The only thing it’s good for is warm nose events and that’s it. This is a classic NAM over amp and it’s going to bust horribly IMO

The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1