snowman19

I’m becoming very confident that there is going to be a SE ridge for February, the question will be how much of a SE ridge that month?

The risk I see is that the -EPO ridge sets up too far to the west (post 1/20) and causes a trough over the west coast

Yea, I would expect a different story in New England since you guys do better in Nina’s

At least in my area, there have really been no blockbuster February’s for snow during La Nina’s going all the way back to the 1950’s. Really the only lone exception was 2013-14, but that was cold-neutral not La Niña. March however is a different story….

This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February:

I was just thinking the same thing. At least for my area (35 miles NW of NYC), there have been some epic March’s for snowfall and cold during -ENSO/La Niña (i.e. 2018). February though? Not so much

Not a clue yet. Wayyyy too early

No one in their right mind is going to argue that this Niña isn’t collapsing or that we aren’t going to see a substantial El Niño develop this spring, granted. My issue is this fantasy going around twitter (NOT saying Webb is saying this) that a full blown El Niño pattern is going to take over by February. That wishcast is going to go down in flames and it’s completely preposterous. It takes months for the atmosphere to flip from one completely different ENSO state to another. There is always a lag of months, no matter what. And it’s not going to reach the El Niño threshold (+0.5C) in region 3.4 until probably late spring, if not early summer

100%. The STJ has been virtually non existent so far. Definitely one (top) factor, the other being the very southward displaced Gulf Stream and very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east along the anomalously displaced Gulf Stream

@40/70 Benchmark @Bluewave @DonSutherland1 I’m wondering if this accounts for part of the lack of KU events? It’s been occurring since 2022. Look at how far off shore and south it forces the baroclinic zone

From my post this morning in the NYC forum: “Just looking back on met fall and so far this winter, we have only seen one true coastal storm (back in the fall). That probably does not bode well for coastal storm prospects going forward. Normally, the fall storm tracks set the tone for winter. The winters that saw a bunch of coastal storms tipped their hand in the fall with a bunch of coastal storms. There is still no signs of a classic KU pattern taking shape on the long range ensembles. When you add to this the ongoing drought/dry pattern we’ve been in since the tail end of summer, 2024, I’m doubting a sudden flip to a bunch of coastals popping up. The long term trend has definitely been dryness with a very muted southern branch and a dominant and strong northern branch. Could I be wrong and some unexpected anomalous pattern suddenly develops? Sure”

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….

I’m not sure how much we can trust the MJO progs all the way into the start of February based on how utterly awful they were for December. But that aside, the thing I definitely doubt is 5 months of below normal cold in this new CC regime, which is most pronounced in winter. We have been lucky thus far to have seen November, December and the start of January see below normal cold. I just cannot see all 5 months in a row (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) averaging below normal cold. We haven’t seen a La Niña that averaged all 5 months in a row below normal in over 30 years (95-96) and that was well before CC really started

Just looking back on met fall and so far this winter, we have only seen one true coastal storm (back in the fall). That probably does not bode well for coastal storm prospects going forward. Normally, the fall storm tracks set the tone for winter. The winters that saw a bunch of coastal storms tipped their hand in the fall with a bunch of coastal storms. There is still no signs of a classic KU pattern taking shape on the long range ensembles. When you add to this the ongoing drought/dry pattern we’ve been in since the tail end of summer, 2024, I’m doubting a sudden flip to a bunch of coastals popping up. The long term trend has definitely been dryness with a very muted southern branch and a dominant and strong northern branch. Could I be wrong and some unexpected anomalous pattern suddenly develops? Sure