snowman19

Could not agree more. The wishcasting and delusions going around twitter, even by some pro mets like Steve D is off the charts. This fantasy that we are about to see an instant light switch flip to a full on El Niño/+PDO pattern due to one WWB is completely ludicrous and absurd. Asinine. We are well into a 2nd year La Niña and over a decade of -PDO and majorly -ENSO events. The idea that there is going to be an instant, magical 180 degree flip of the PAC due to one WWB, is going to go down in flames. On a side note, this unexpected big EWB with the SOI positive surge has done some damage. The rapid upwelling was pretty impressive. Region 3.4 is still down below -0.8C on OISST, the lowest of this entire event (was at -0.9C a couple of days ago) and there are very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up throughout region 3.4 on the new SSTA charts, a sign of a rather healthy La Niña event. I’m sure the current RONI dropped too. As of this moment, it’s definitely not dead….yet @donsutherland1

Saturday may be an inch or so? The issue is snow ratios are not going to be good….likely less than 10:1. The boundary layer is going to suck, it’s going to be in the upper 30’s even up here where I am. The new EURO/EPS didn’t budge for Sunday

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming?

I’m going with the EPS and op EURO on this one

Anyone actually believing the outlier op GFS is just asking for extreme disappointment. Its own ensemble (GEFS) says it’s off its rocker. The EURO op, EURO AI and EPS look absolutely nothing at all like it for Sat-Sun

Almost forgot about your SSWE hype when you were using graphics from that nimrod Mark Moregarbage back in December when he was hyping a massive SSWE and total SPV split for Christmas week, yet another good one @MJO812 EDIT: You put up a picture of the graphic he posted on his twitter that he was using to hype a major stratospheric warming and @40/70 Benchmark called you out on it at the time. I know you remember it, you don’t have Alzheimer’s disease

“30+ days in MJO phase 8 in December”. One of the best doozy’s of all time from you. Stick to arresting perps in the Bronx

Wrong again, but that’s normal for you. There was just a massive EWB and positive SOI spike and region 3.4 has dropped as low as it’s been for this entire event. Maybe you should stick to predicting 30+ day long MJO phase 8 events

One thing I’m extremely confident in is that we don’t see 5 winter months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row go below normal for temps. I do think January ends up being another below normal month, which would make 3 in a row since Nov. IMO no way in hell do both Feb and Mar also end up below normal. The only La Niña that did that in the last 30+ years was 1995-96 and that was well before CC hit

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England

Maybe there is some truth to the old saying “drought begets drought”. We have been stuck in this dryness/drought cycle since the tail end of summer, 2024. I don’t see it breaking until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December in the NYC metro area. This winter pattern is just following the ongoing, overall theme of dryness, where storms either disappear or underperform with lower QPF than expected as we get closer in time. Just following the overall drought cycle. New tweet from NWS Upton:

Just mentioned this in the ENSO thread, but this pattern is following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

While I have no problem with going +PNA the rest of this month, I completely disagree that it goes into February. I see February as a -PNA dominated month