snowman19

At this point I don’t think the question is “will December be cold?”. Very likely to average cold. I think the bigger, million dollar question will be snow. As of right now, the pattern does not look conducive at all for east coast, I-95 corridor snowstorms. I agree with your take in the post you made earlier in that regard. If December ends up colder than normal with below average snow, I think most on here would consider that a loss

If that’s correct, a cold look for sure. A coastal storm pattern, not so much (++NAO/flat PNA). Maybe fast moving, progressive clippers? EDIT: @EastonSN+ Snowfall in -WPO patterns vs -EPO patterns is a good question. @donsutherland1 is the man to ask about that

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave

That’s exactly what the GEFS is showing; an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO) as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime (-EPO)…..

Verbatim, it’s showing an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO), if it goes poleward, as is being shown, it would tap cross-polar flow/arctic air into western Canada

Zip zero

Yea, that northern fringe being shown over our area is very likely virga that can’t be resolved on global models at this range. The airmass that’s going to be over us is going to be extremely dry and is going to “eat up” the QPF

Completely agree. The pattern looks extremely hostile to KU’s up the coast through at least mid-December and very likely beyond that time frame

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

34 degrees and all rain in Sloatsburg. Started as snow, maybe 1/4 inch, then quickly went to sleet/snow/rain for about an hour, then rain

Nothing has changed in days. This was always an Orange-Sussex-Putnam snow event. As per usual, the only place that thought this was going to somehow be an I-95 corridor snowstorm were the usual suspects on twitter. If you listened to them, the I-95 corridor would have 300 inches of snow every winter

We still have 30 days to go for the final verdict on December, so a lot of time. But I will say this, just speaking for the NYC metro area and not any other place, in a La Niña winter, if you have a below normal snow December, in particular if you had no measureable snow in November, followed by a below normal December, it’s a very, very bad omen…..almost none of them throughout weather record keeping history have gone on to be above normal winters for snow and the overwhelming majority of them go on to be below normal winters for snow…..

Lol not just a total wind reversal and major SSWE but an SPV split by Christmas week. That Moregarbage prediction was one for the ages lol

@40/70 Benchmark Looks like your musing that the SPV regains strength back to climo/average (no not above normal strength) was a good one after all