snowman19

The EPS has been awful with the NAO. It just completely busted very badly on the huge west based -NAO block for early-mid January it kept showing for run after run for days. @SnowGoose69 just posted about that -NAO bias the EPS has

Every La Niña fades at this time of the year. Same story with El Niño. They peak in November/December then start fading. Every event does it. It’s a perfectly normal progression. And what strat warming? There is no strat warming predicted right now, in fact the SPV is strengthening. This idea being floated around twitter that we are going to magically light switch flip the atmosphere into Modoki El Niño forcing by February is preposterous IMO. The premise that we are just going to go from following a front-loaded La Niña winter evolution to a tee from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response. It defies physics and common sense IMO EDIT: @NEG NAO @MJO812 @bluewave:

Pro met or not, I completely disagree that February is going to be Modoki El Niño like. We are not going to light switch flip from a canonical La Niña pattern into a Modoki El Niño pattern in a matter of weeks. It defies physics and common sense IMO. If I’m wrong….oh well. And Ray is not suggesting that we go into a Modoki El Niño pattern for February, he’s basing February and March on a possible stratospheric disruption not ENSO EDIT: RONI: @Gawx @donsutherland1:

It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter

This ties in with the very persistent trend of dry/drought we’ve seen since the tail end of summer, 2024 you just posted about. The most persistent dry pattern we’ve seen in this region in over 24 years. Every time it’s looked like we are going to go into a wet pattern again, it fails

Mentioned this in response to @Bluewave post in the NYC forum, but we haven’t seen a dry pattern of this magnitude since 2001-2002. It began in late summer, 2024

We haven’t seen a dry pattern of this magnitude since 2001-2002

Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January……

The op EURO/EPS was absolutely awful with its big west-based -NAO block it kept insisting on for days, run after run for early-mid January, which is totally gone now. A really bad performance with that

As of now, I’m seriously doubting that we see -NAO blocking to go along with the anticipated -EPO/+TNH pattern later this month. +TNH very strongly favors a +NAO/+AO/SE ridge regime as both @40/70 Benchmark and Eric Webb mused. Also, @StormchaserChuck1 found a very strong tendency for a positive NAO when the EPO is negative the last 10 years….

Nice write up. I think the -EPO/+TNH just after mid-month into late January is real. I also think the cold is real. The risk again would be the +NAO/+AO/SE ridge tendency that comes along with a +TNH regime. I can see a gradient type pattern with overrunning events and SWFEs. The question, as always, will be where does the gradient set up? New England would obviously be the safest on the cold side in such a gradient pattern. Probably can get a better idea of how it’s going to play out the next couple of weeks

All about the clout. Guaranteed, 100%, come mid-late January they completely change their February forecast to very cold and very snowy from the Midwest/Lakes to the east coast no matter what. No doubt in my mind. They need the subscription money to keep coming in. They’re in too deep now. They’ve turned into a franchise that’s all about the like clicks, subscription money, views, follows and retweets like a few others are. It’s a shame…..

What a God awful performance by the op EURO and EPS on that big west-based -NAO block for early-mid January. Epic failure. Good lord did they fuck that model up with the “update” years back. It’s sad