snowman19

Just IMO, Sunday is going to turn into glorified arctic FROPA. I think the setup is not good for a coastal storm…positively tilted trough, raging fast flow, progressive, forward lean PNA ridge, no “traffic”/block in the Atlantic to slow the flow down and cause a jam so a wave can form, deepen and come up the coast. Snow showers, squalls, etc…..coatings/dustings up to an inch? Sure. A coastal low forming, slowing down, deepening and coming up the benchmark? I’m not seeing it. If I’m wrong, tear me to bits on Monday morning

This may explain why the 6z EURO flip flops:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening

Every single IOD event (negative or positive) in history has weakened in December. It peaks in October/November then weakens in December. This is perfectly normal climo, no matter how strong the event peaks, every one of them has done this

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now.

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

They have seen cold all the way into Florida in many past La Niña Decembers lol

It is absolutely a typical Niña. They all usually peak in December and then start weakening. It’s cooling right now and is at -0.7C. It probably peaks within the next couple of weeks then starts weakening toward cold-neutral. That would fit climo perfectly for a normal La Niña event

@40/70 Benchmark What is the RONI out of curiosity? I’m assuming the Niña is about to peak soon (within the next couple of weeks?)….OISST has started cooling again, it’s around -0.7C right now

If you are correct about a 1989-90 turnaround, that would be astounding. 89-90 saw the biggest, most dramatic pattern flip in the last 50 years. We went from an ice cold arctic tundra in November and December to palm trees sprouting in January and February….

As I’ve learned and I’m sure many others have…..They are going with persistence forecasting, which is really not advisable at all. When you do that, you are just assuming that a pattern is going to continue and models are all wrong and are just going to keep correcting to cold without any end or breaks. Persistence forecasting works until it doesn’t. Those guys are basically saying “yea, the models have been wrong so far and the pattern hasn’t broken yet, so we are just going to keep forecasting the status quo (cold) indefinitely, no matter what the forcing may do, no matter what in the long wave pattern changes and no matter what the models may show, we don’t care”. Not only unprofessional for mets, but a very bad idea and if it fails, you totally lose credibility and trust

As much as I get accused of being “warm biased”, which may certainly be true, the same cast of characters have been trying to force KU’s/major snowstorms up the east coast, I-95 corridor since the 2022-23 winter….4 winters in a row now. Literally since December, 2022, it’s always the same voices saying to just wait, a major I-95 snowstorm pattern is right around the corner. It goes both ways

Kind of like how the typical snow crew here has been wrong about KU’s/major snowstorms hitting the east coast, I-95 corridor every winter since the 2022-23 winter. Going on 4 in a row now…..

Like @donsutherland1 always says, not even worth looking at the CFS until you are into the final few days of the month, when it actually gets a semblance of having a clue about the following month. That said, in this climate, actually getting 4 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) in a row to all be below normal for temps, would be an extremely tall order….

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response