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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    @donsutherland1
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    Very good point about DWKW generation now that the 30C isotherm is east of the dateline…. @LakePaste25 Highest on record for June:
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027 The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
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  7. snowman19
    @Gawx
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  9. snowman19
    Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month. It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks This is a textbook east-based (EP) event: And that OHC….wow
  10. snowman19
    As suspected, given the super El Niño/++PMM, the EPAC tropical cyclone season is shaping up to be a blockbuster In other news, even the notoriously too cool CDAS daily has region 1+2 at almost +3.5C now And it has region 3.4 on the verge of +2.0C
  11. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:
  12. snowman19
    Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east @Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Here comes the next monster WWB
  15. snowman19
    With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the other regions went back to neutral first
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