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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
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    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    This is only the very beginning of what is certain to be a super Nino induced, record-breaking STJ for the next 4+ months. The ++PMM and strong +QBO are only going to enhance it even more
  2. snowman19
    And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history… EDIT: @GaWx The 2nd highest absolute temperature ever recorded for region 3.4 was back in November of 2015 at over 29C
  3. snowman19
    Regardless of the actual +IOD raw numbers, there is very clear +IOD forcing present on the OLR and VP charts. So the atmospheric coupling is there, which is what is important. It would be impossible not to have a +IOD with a Nino this insanely strong, it causes one to develop. It’s not going to make any difference in the strength of this Nino, nor how well it is and has been coupled. We are light years stronger than 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. It’s not even remotely close. This Nino has already secured its place as the strongest event in history and it’s going to increase its strength even more into December
  4. snowman19
    Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December
  5. snowman19
    This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock
  6. snowman19
    The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul
  7. snowman19
    Strong signal for a warm November too
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Yep. They have absolutely sucked with this event. Embarrassing. The CANSIPS finally caved to the EURO, showing a +4.1C December peak now like the EURO has had for months. And it’s still dead wrong on the orientation of this extreme east-based/EP Nino
  10. snowman19
    Agree. IMO this ends up a strong -TNH winter EDIT: Looks like Paul Roundy is also on board for a predominant negative TNH winter too. Missed his tweet on that a few days ago
  11. snowman19
    As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run @donsutherland1
  12. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)
  13. snowman19
    Massive WWB coming for early-mid next month. This will cause even more warming in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4, setting the stage for the December peak. This super El Niño has secured and guaranteed its rightful place as the strongest and most east-based in history….
  14. snowman19
    Ok
  15. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
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