snowman19

The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile. On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed. #Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C. #ElNiño”

The WPAC DWKW looks real healthy now…..

The weenie cope and wishcasting this year has been unlike anything I’ve ever seen in all my years of being a weather hobbyist. Off the charts….There’s no way we are getting a super El Niño. It’s only going to be weak or moderate, too close to 2023’s super event. It’s a Modoki. Ok, it’s only going to peak at moderate. It’s going to turn into a Modoki. The April WWB is weakening and falling apart. There’s La Niña hangover and the easterlies and trades will be fighting back at the end of April and May. The sea level heights aren’t rising in the EPAC. The April DWKW is weakening, falling apart and it’s not going to be a record breaker. There’s not going to be westerlies and another WWB in May/June. What westerlies? The subsurface isn’t going to be record breaking, the subsurface is not that impressive, it’s cooling off. The SSTs aren’t warming at all. The SSTs are lagging, not impressive. The MJO is going to get stuck in the Niña phases and not make it into the Pacific. The MJO is going into the COD. Where’s the ERWs? The warm pool is stuck in the WPAC and not moving. The models are losing the triplet and twin cyclones, not happening. It’s not coupling at all. There’s no coupling! The SOI isn’t going to stay in El Niño mode, it’s not cooperating at all, it’s stuck in Niña mode. There isn’t going to be another DWKW in June. Where’s the -SOI? It’s going to rapidly weaken to neutral by winter. It’s going to peak very early. All the models are way too warm, warm bias and are overamping it. The models are going to back off. The OLR and convection isn’t cooperating, it’s staying in the eastern IO and Maritime Continent. There’s going to be a -IOD. The ++PMM isn’t going to force an east-based event. It looks central based. Where’s the STJ?…..The atmosphere is Niña-like. The PDO is negative, it’s not going to allow a super event. -PDO is fighting it. And on and on…..

@forkyfork I wonder what the models will show once this current WWB and the new DWKW that has formed does their “dirty work”? There is some major strengthening and warming about to come And once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Nino/Bjerknes feedback

There is about to be a massive warming surge…. @bluewave @donsutherland1 @LakePaste25 @csnavywx @forkyfork@40/70 Benchmark

It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño

This WWB has actually increased in strength And the new DWKW in the WPAC looks very healthy @40/70 Benchmark