snowman19

Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing @bluewave

Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997

I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….

I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious

“Epic reversal of winds in the equatorial Pacific immediately east of the 180° line. This condition, which would extend until completing the second half of April, is and will continue producing a massive warm Kelvin Wave that will arrive at the South American coastal edge toward the end of autumn. It's the stuff of legends. It could compromise the winter season on the Peruvian coast. By warming it. #ElNINO”

The big WWB has begun to show up on visible satellite

Winter is over and has been over. It’s time to move on and enjoy life

Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..

He focuses on tropical weather. He followed me a year ago and I gave him a follow back