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snowman19

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About snowman19

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    HPN
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    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based From @csnavywx “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”
  2. snowman19
    I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2 overall
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  4. snowman19
    I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August
  5. snowman19
    All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:
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  7. snowman19
    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
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  9. snowman19
    Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD
  10. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:
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  12. snowman19
    Yea, that’s not cold. Solar irradiance from the roaring STJ
  13. snowman19
    IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important
  14. snowman19
    Latest SOI: -35.29 In other news, this El Niño has become severely east-based. There are confirmed, historic anomalies of +7.2C off the coast of Peru in region 1+2, which is a new all time record, surpassing both 1997 and 1982. And as @Gawx predicted, very rapid warming of the SSTs in region 3.4, OISST ONI: +1.2C, RONI: +0.73C. With this major WWB ongoing, it would not surprise me if we are into a high-end moderate/strong Nino (RONI/ONI) by the end of this month
  15. snowman19
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