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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    As @csnavywx suspected, we are going to handedly surpass 1997…. We are on the verge of breaking 1997’s -SOI record (@Gawx), we are warmer in region 3.4, we are neck and neck in region 1+2 and we have broken 1997’s OHC record
  2. snowman19
    Yes it’s the CFS for September, but Holy El Niño!
  3. snowman19
    It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year. This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter
  4. snowman19
    This is just ridiculous. Westerlies clear across the entire tropical Pacific basin
  5. snowman19
    This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow
  6. snowman19
    As strong El Niño as it gets….. And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline
  7. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm continues to be pushed further east of the dateline by the constant WWBs. It’s extremely likely that it gets pushed all the way to 140W by November like the models are showing, which would be record-breaking. The developing parade of typhoons are only going to enhance the westerlies/WWBs going forward. The warm pool east of the dateline has moved the downwelling Kelvin wave generation area to around the dateline to 165W. This means it will take less time for warm water to be transported into the EPAC, thus El Nino will grow very quickly from here on out. A record-breaking historic event is guaranteed at this point. I think we see forcing possibly set up the furthest east on record by late fall/winter. Here is a taste of what is to come on this side of the hemisphere with the STJ……
  8. snowman19
    There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months….
  9. snowman19
    Nope, not at all. As Ray @40/70 Benchmark already stated earlier, the tropics and subtropics/++PMM are very clearly in full blown strong El Niño mode. At no point was I disagreeing with bluewave about the extratropical North Pacific. Changing the subject to the discussion above, as far as the NAO, no way on God’s green earth do I think the NAO averages negative this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) despite what some weenie accounts on twitter are saying. Super El Niño, descending solar activity off a big solar max, high geomag, +QBO….color me very, very skeptical of this big -NAO winter hype on social media
  10. snowman19
    The EPAC TC train has left the station….
  11. snowman19
    We’ve now passed 1997’s OHC record, we are over +2.6C The Peru weather service just updated, they are expecting “extraordinary” (aka super) El Niño costero (region 1+2) conditions, with SSTs greater than +3.5C to continue into 2027….. Region 3.4 continues shattering SST records
  12. snowman19
    +AAM as far as the eye can see In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….
  13. snowman19
    @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @LakePaste25 Almost a guarantee that the record rise in the MEI since April continues unabated. This El Niño system is extremely well coupled, ocean-atmosphere (Bjerknes feedback). Textbook. Coupling right down to the ERWs. Feeling more and more confident that we see a +2 MEI by met fall…..
  14. snowman19
    WWB after WWB after WWB, DWKW after DWKW…
  15. snowman19
    Warm water volume up to +2.65
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