snowman19

Paul Roundy says this is going to be the strongest DWKW in history Very rapid surface warming in the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) has started OHC is exploding too, up to +1.90C. This is from a South American meteorologist: ^Translation: “04/22/26 Sub-surface thermal structure in the tropical equatorial Pacific. - Warm Water Volume +1.90C (increase) - #KelvinWave strengthening++ - #SubsurfaceHeating continues, emerges to surface along the equatorial Pacific.”

+6C subsurface anomalies showing up now

@bluewave

Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months

That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do.

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

Here comes the next WWB and downwelling KW for May. It is also likely to spawn more big TC’s with the associated WWBs behind them…..

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution. As per that research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

^”See the magenta in the middle of the map? That’s alert level 4 of 5 for bleaching in the #Galapagos. Common in El Niño (or in this case developing) where cool water upwelling slows/ stops and surface waters significantly warm. The sea surface temp anomaly is +3-4°C (~6°F). That’s why life suffers there every El Niño, esp. east based episodes Thanks @NOAACoral”

Yet another WWB is loading up for early May….