snowman19

I forget which winter it was recently…maybe 23-24? The EPS was awful all winter long with the MJO, November right through March. It kept showing amplified waves propagating right through phases 8-1-2 in the long range over and over again and it never happened once

So does the EPS

From Dr. Simon Lee, for those who don’t know, he’s a college professor of meteorology and an expert on the stratosphere, has written many papers on it. Here’s what he has to say:

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

Huh. So I guess they’re actually not showing “extreme cold” like I just read on twitter. Man oh man, you have to be really careful who you follow there

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)

FWIW, Judah updated his SPV blog for anyone interested:

Flurries/on and off snow showers in Sloatsburg. Nothing sticking anywhere. 35 degrees

I mean, he totally went against what the EURO weeklies and the other ensembles were showing run after run for early December and if that should actually happen, maybe he’s onto something?

https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989372780652237091?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989823502162301098?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10

Region 4. Looks basin-wide

Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)

Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area

DT warned yesterday that the MJO push into phase 8 is looking like it’s going to be delayed…