Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,376

  • Joined

About snowman19

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

Recent Profile Visitors

52,313 profile views
  1. snowman19
    There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months….
  2. snowman19
    Nope, not at all. As Ray @40/70 Benchmark already stated earlier, the tropics and subtropics/++PMM are very clearly in full blown strong El Niño mode. At no point was I disagreeing with bluewave about the extratropical North Pacific. Changing the subject to the discussion above, as far as the NAO, no way on God’s green earth do I think the NAO averages negative this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) despite what some weenie accounts on twitter are saying. Super El Niño, descending solar activity off a big solar max, high geomag, +QBO….color me very, very skeptical of this big -NAO winter hype on social media
  3. snowman19
    The EPAC TC train has left the station….
  4. snowman19
    We’ve now passed 1997’s OHC record, we are over +2.6C The Peru weather service just updated, they are expecting “extraordinary” (aka super) El Niño costero (region 1+2) conditions, with SSTs greater than +3.5C to continue into 2027….. Region 3.4 continues shattering SST records
  5. snowman19
    +AAM as far as the eye can see In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….
  6. snowman19
    @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @LakePaste25 Almost a guarantee that the record rise in the MEI since April continues unabated. This El Niño system is extremely well coupled, ocean-atmosphere (Bjerknes feedback). Textbook. Coupling right down to the ERWs. Feeling more and more confident that we see a +2 MEI by met fall…..
  7. snowman19
    WWB after WWB after WWB, DWKW after DWKW…
  8. snowman19
    Warm water volume up to +2.65
  9. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at this….the last 2 super El Niños (1997, 2015) at this point in time compared to this one. It’s not even close…it’s blatantly obvious we have a historic, monster event coming…..
  10. snowman19
    Here’s 1997 vs. this year, same time. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline this year sticks out like a sore thumb and like you said, we have record warm water volume this time around. We are about to leave 1997 in the dust….WWBs and DWKWs as far as the eye can see Subsurface: 1+2 SSTs: 3.4 SSTs:
  11. snowman19
    I agree Ray. I’m not understanding some of what I’m seeing on twitter calling for big west-based -NAO blocking this winter. Descending solar coming off a big max, high geomag, +QBO, super El Niño….sorry but that doesn’t scream -NAO blocking to me. But then again when you look at the account peddling that, it makes sense…..
  12. snowman19
    I think it peaks strong come November
  13. snowman19
    Here comes the +IOD….there are no road blocks ahead to stop this thing from strengthening and strengthening And with the projected TC forecasts, the WWBs and DWKWs are just going to keep coming
  14. snowman19
    Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event
  15. snowman19
    Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
×
×
  • Create New...