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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    Yea, this one is developing as a “Costero”/coastal (east-based, EP) El Niño event. According to the South American Mets, we haven’t seen anything like this since 1997
  2. snowman19
    From a South American Met: ^ Translation: “This is the magnitude of how deep—and therefore how long-lasting—the warming of the ocean floor near our coasts is. We're talking about 100 meters or more in its most significant part and nearly 500 in its verifiable depth. All that warm anomaly is advancing toward the South American coastal edge. There's little the APS can do, as noted (APS=South Pacific Anticyclone) We haven't seen anything like this since 1997. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the most relevant one, why there's so much information about a major #ElNiño event on the horizon.”
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  5. snowman19
    +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
  6. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
  7. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  10. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  11. snowman19
    Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C
  12. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  13. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  14. snowman19
    And this will spawn another DWKW
  15. snowman19
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