snowman19

FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:

I took BAMWX’s word for it. Lol I guess they are mistaken?

The 1989 blocking was started by a combination of an early SSWE and a very strong MJO wave that went 7-8-1-2, which lead to the Thanksgiving snowstorm up I-95 and the record cold December….

The news is comical right now. The bad, false info about SSWEs they are putting out is astonishing. A real disservice honestly. They don’t even talk about the lag effect and are hyping an ice age coming up the end of this month

Haven’t even begun to think about it yet. But I do appreciate the vapid airhead commentary as always

It’s blatantly obvious now that we are going to be transitioning into an El Niño in a big way this spring. I think once we get to March/April the transition really kicks into high gear and it’s going to be rapid….possibly very rapid. Would not surprise me if the ENSO region SSTs reach weak El Nino status by the end of May

If people are looking for a parade of KU’s up the coast, that’s probably not happening this winter with the Niña/-PMM greatly suppressing and muting the STJ

Yes. The 12z EPS started to show RNA the tail end of this month into December. I believe the -PNA flip is definitely coming. I also don’t doubt the -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

The 2010-11 winter was the first and last time I ever heard JB predict an early end to winter. Just before mid-January he posted that all the high latitude blocking was going to completely break down by early February and that winter was going to come to an abrupt end in the east and not come back again. For the most part, he ended up being right

Verbatim, it’s showing a -PNA/RNA. If it’s correct with the -EPO/-AO/-NAO, then the entire northern tier of the lower 48 would get cold….assuming the EPO ridge gets poleward enough to tap cross-polar flow

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

I absolutely believe it. Front-loaded, classic canonical Niña December. Literally everything and I mean everything, atmospheric and oceanic is 100% La Niña. SOI, ENSO SSTs, subsurface, ONI/RONI, enhanced trade winds/EWBs, -PDO, OLR, -IOD, global longwave pattern, -PMM, MJO behavior, -AAM (about to tank negative again). All La Nina. No reason to doubt it or question it. Textbook canonical La Niña winter inbound….