snowman19

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

“A strong MJO pulse (part of what helped spawn #Sinlaku) is traversing the Pacific and will move towards Central America. As a result, trade winds will slow across the Central and East Pacific in the next two weeks. I expect we will see some fairly rapid warming of ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3 as a result, with a lot of sub-surface heat lurking from the last downwelling Kelvin Wave. On top of warming already ongoing, the East/Central Pacific may start to look very El-Niño-like shortly.”

Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)

This is starting to look like a lock for a “high-end” strong El Niño at the very minimum

@Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”

Yea. ENSO events normally take time

This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

@bluewave Holy ++PMM

Huge SOI crash continuing, strongly negative. -30’s for the last 3 days. 30 day average is negative and continuing to fall