snowman19

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile. On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed. #Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C. #ElNiño”

The WPAC DWKW looks real healthy now…..

The weenie cope and wishcasting this year has been unlike anything I’ve ever seen in all my years of being a weather hobbyist. Off the charts….There’s no way we are getting a super El Niño. It’s only going to be weak or moderate, too close to 2023’s super event. It’s a Modoki. Ok, it’s only going to peak at moderate. It’s going to turn into a Modoki. The April WWB is weakening and falling apart. There’s La Niña hangover and the easterlies and trades will be fighting back at the end of April and May. The sea level heights aren’t rising in the EPAC. The April DWKW is weakening, falling apart and it’s not going to be a record breaker. There’s not going to be westerlies and another WWB in May/June. What westerlies? The subsurface isn’t going to be record breaking, the subsurface is not that impressive, it’s cooling off. The SSTs aren’t warming at all. The SSTs are lagging, not impressive. The MJO is going to get stuck in the Niña phases and not make it into the Pacific. The MJO is going into the COD. Where’s the ERWs? The warm pool is stuck in the WPAC and not moving. The models are losing the triplet and twin cyclones, not happening. It’s not coupling at all. There’s no coupling! The SOI isn’t going to stay in El Niño mode, it’s not cooperating at all, it’s stuck in Niña mode. There isn’t going to be another DWKW in June. Where’s the -SOI? It’s going to rapidly weaken to neutral by winter. It’s going to peak very early. All the models are way too warm, warm bias and are overamping it. The models are going to back off. The OLR and convection isn’t cooperating, it’s staying in the eastern IO and Maritime Continent. There’s going to be a -IOD. The ++PMM isn’t going to force an east-based event. It looks central based. Where’s the STJ?…..The atmosphere is Niña-like. The PDO is negative, it’s not going to allow a super event. -PDO is fighting it. And on and on…..

@forkyfork I wonder what the models will show once this current WWB and the new DWKW that has formed does their “dirty work”? There is some major strengthening and warming about to come And once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Nino/Bjerknes feedback

There is about to be a massive warming surge…. @bluewave @donsutherland1 @LakePaste25 @csnavywx @forkyfork@40/70 Benchmark

It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño

This WWB has actually increased in strength And the new DWKW in the WPAC looks very healthy @40/70 Benchmark

Japan’s meteorological agency has declared an El Niño. Not a surprise given the current obs and the JMA model showing a historic event On a side note, the extreme SST anomalies off the coast of Peru continue…. ^ “And according to the latest oceanographic bulletin from @ImarpePeru, sea surface temperatures continue to rise and have reached an anomaly of +7.36°C (+13.25°F) off the coast of #Paita #Piura. Tomorrow we expect an update from the Climate Prediction Center of @NOAA on the status and outlook of #ElNiño.”

I mentioned it a week or so ago, but +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong signal for warmth. Since 1980, there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers and they were all warm, some were all out blowtorches

100%. 1997-98 peaked the final week of November then steadily weakened right through the end of March. 2015 also peaked the last week of November then steadily weakened throughout the entire winter. Twitter kept wishcasting that the weakening was going to somehow “save” that winter and it was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow the rest of the way. It also didn’t help that JB was hyping nonstop that it was a super “migrating Modoki” El Niño and said the analogs were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2014-15 for months on end in the fall and beginning of winter. The weenies bought right into that and the DT “it’s weakening!” argument hook, line and sinker