snowman19

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past

Correct

The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

My final call is 4-6 total for area. I’m going with the op EURO and EPS

@CoastalWx I can’t believe there’s still people peddling 6-12 and 8-12 forecasts for the NYC metro area. They are going to bust hard. The QPF never supported those amounts, the speed doesn’t, the ratios never supported it and now the new meso model runs (high res RGEM and 3K/12K NAM) are showing a very strong mid-level warm nose and turn it into a sleet-a-rama even well north and west of the city

The only thing the NAM is good for is accurately showing warm noses. It surprisingly excels in WAA events. Other than that, it’s completely useless

Warm noses are always underestimated at this range. The fact that the mesos (hi res RGEM/NAM) are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way north of NYC is a red flag. They turn it into a sleet fest. Ignore at your own risk. Globals (GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET, EURO) are not going to pick on it as good as the mesos. Today is the day to take them seriously. Larry Cosgrove said many years ago ‘do not ignore the meso models showing mid-level warm noses in a WAA event they are usually right’

The 6z hi res RGEM and the 6z 3K and 12K NAM runs are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way up into Rockland, Orange, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen, Westchester. The Ptype goes to a sleet fest. This should be taken seriously due to the fact this is a WAA event

If this couples with the troposphere, we have issues next month. The SPV is about to strengthen rapidly, become quite strong, consolidate and move up over the pole. We haven’t had coupling so far and we didn’t last winter, but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. Different QBO evolution this year. This is something to watch very closely EDIT: @stadiumwave Again, I said “this is something to watch very closely.” I didn’t say anywhere that it would couple. There is no guarantee that this does couple nor that it doesn’t couple. I did read Commodity’s tweet. Merry Christmas

This is likely a 3-5 event for NYC metro area. Consider it a big win given then extreme -PNA (full latitude trough down to Baja) that’s going to be in place during this event

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January

Can you explain why exactly this is going to be a very high ratio snow other than “it’s going to be very cold”?

Why are you posting the Kuchera ratio map? There’s a reason why the National Weather Service never uses it