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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul
  2. snowman19
    Strong signal for a warm November too
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Yep. They have absolutely sucked with this event. Embarrassing. The CANSIPS finally caved to the EURO, showing a +4.1C December peak now like the EURO has had for months. And it’s still dead wrong on the orientation of this extreme east-based/EP Nino
  5. snowman19
    Agree. IMO this ends up a strong -TNH winter EDIT: Looks like Paul Roundy is also on board for a predominant negative TNH winter too. Missed his tweet on that a few days ago
  6. snowman19
    As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run @donsutherland1
  7. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)
  8. snowman19
    Massive WWB coming for early-mid next month. This will cause even more warming in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4, setting the stage for the December peak. This super El Niño has secured and guaranteed its rightful place as the strongest and most east-based in history….
  9. snowman19
    Ok
  10. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
  11. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is about to explode with warmth. A DWKW has reached the South American coast and has begun to surface, anomalies of +10C are being reported and sea level heights are at levels never seen before in history. This warmth is certain to spread into regions 3 and 3.4 in the next few weeks. Also, this WWB continues to look more and more impressive on the models, which is also going to help enhance the warming in those regions over the next several weeks….. The subsurface…..WOW
  12. snowman19
    No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet
  13. snowman19
    Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….
  14. snowman19
    The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter
  15. snowman19
    Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless. Eric Webb had this to say:
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