snowman19

@Gawx

@Gawx Thoughts:

You have no idea what you’re talking about

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

Ratios are going to be lower than 10:1 tomorrow, but it looks good for an inch or so in the immediate NYC metro area, more in eastern Long Island. Highs are going to be in the mid-30’s even up here where I am tomorrow

You’re funny. You’ve been declaring the La Niña dead and buried since December. Ever since you made your arrogant “You know the Niña is dead?” post just over a week ago, it’s been doing nothing but strengthening, strongest of the entire event actually….the SOI is up to almost +28 today, there was a big EWB, region 3.4 is still at -0.8C (dropped to -0.9C a few days ago) and it looks healthier than ever in region 3.4 on the new SST charts. Keep up the great work!

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave The SOI just jumped up to +21.96 Region 3.4 still below -0.8C Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps -AAM continuing RONI dropped Huge EWB just over a week ago But the La Niña is dead and buried!