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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)
  7. snowman19
    And this is before the new WWB (which has just begun), ERW and subsequent DWKW has a chance to do their dirty work with strengthening this event further
  8. snowman19
    I think the June model updates are going to show some crazy solutions, very likely showing this El Niño easily surpassing all the events since 1950 in both RONI and ONI….
  9. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change…. Very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling developing…+AAM, -SOI, decrease in OLR (convection) in the central and eastern equatorial PAC, WWBs/westerlies, major weakening of trade winds over the equatorial PAC
  10. snowman19
    Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line. All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.” ^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event “A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”
  11. snowman19
    Either way the AAM is going positive
  12. snowman19
    Agreed
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    “The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system. The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”
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