snowman19

I mean, he totally went against what the EURO weeklies and the other ensembles were showing run after run for early December and if that should actually happen, maybe he’s onto something?

https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989372780652237091?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989823502162301098?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10

Region 4. Looks basin-wide

Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)

Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area

DT warned yesterday that the MJO push into phase 8 is looking like it’s going to be delayed…

IF (If) the GEFS, EPS and GEPS are correct in how far west the ridge is going to set up (Bering Sea/Aleutians) in the long range, then yep, they are underestimating the SE ridge

@Gawx Sunspots over 110 so far this month. Very high geomag continuing as well, as has been the case since solar activity picked back up in August. If this follows the trend you found since 1979, this is very likely to be a +NAO winter

That storm and the afternoon snowstorm just before St. Patrick’s Day back in March, 2018 were the hardest I ever saw it snow in my life. Both were literal whiteouts for hours

The 2011-12 winter had a +PNA for both December and January…that’s a surprise. I thought that was a predominant -PNA winter

Completely agree. I see the December, 1983 talk by some as being equally ridiculous….volcanic stratosphere from a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before, +QBO, +PDO

The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….

It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably

Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two