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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    IMO the subsurface hits +13C next month
  2. snowman19
    Run after run for months the EURO has insisted on a December peak. The new run is no different and it hasn’t backed off the all time, record-shattering peaks for regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 one iota come December:
  3. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening
  4. snowman19
    The 30C isotherm/warm pool has actually strengthened and expanded in size. The center of it is at 140W. Absolutely insane
  5. snowman19
    Very strong/super El Niños do “force” a +IOD to develop, I’d agree. It would be near impossible for one not to form with a Nino this strong. Then once it does form it constructively interferes and complements the Nino. As far as the ++PMM (Baja) this year, I believe that’s one of the main factors that caused this El Nino to be the most east-based we’ve ever seen, surpassing the previous most east-based Nino on record (1997-98). The strong +PMM/east-based Nino relationship was discussed in a research paper I shared on here back in the spring and it turned out to be correct
  6. snowman19
    And it’s getting even more of a boost from the +IOD now
  7. snowman19
    Not only more east-based than 1997-98, but way, way stronger than that super Nino was….. “Based on key metrics such as elevated moisture across the South and rainy conditions in Florida and California, this El Niño is forecast have a stronger signal by early December than events in 1982, 1997 and 2015.” @donsutherland1 @bluewave
  8. snowman19
    The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this @donsutherland1
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    OISST RONI up to over +2.8C
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    More big warming in regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 coming up until it peaks in December. The EURO just keeps doubling down on the record-shattering SSTs it has by the beginning of December New EURO run:
  14. snowman19
    Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….
  15. snowman19
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