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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room
  2. snowman19
    We have broken the 1997 record for Peru’s (next to region 1+2) highest air temperate record It doesn’t get more El Niño than this, clearly defined El Niño convective standing wave/forcing: This is likely to be a record-breaking EPAC TC season
  3. snowman19
    Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….
  4. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event
  5. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust. The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November
  6. snowman19
    I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC
  7. snowman19
    Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster:
  8. snowman19
    Agreed.
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
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  13. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  14. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
  15. snowman19
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