snowman19

Ratios are going to be lower than 10:1 tomorrow, but it looks good for an inch or so in the immediate NYC metro area, more in eastern Long Island. Highs are going to be in the mid-30’s even up here where I am tomorrow

You’re funny. You’ve been declaring the La Niña dead and buried since December. Ever since you made your arrogant “You know the Niña is dead?” post just over a week ago, it’s been doing nothing but strengthening, strongest of the entire event actually….the SOI is up to almost +28 today, there was a big EWB, region 3.4 is still at -0.8C (dropped to -0.9C a few days ago) and it looks healthier than ever in region 3.4 on the new SST charts. Keep up the great work!

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave The SOI just jumped up to +21.96 Region 3.4 still below -0.8C Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps -AAM continuing RONI dropped Huge EWB just over a week ago But the La Niña is dead and buried!

Way out there, but next weekend looks like a possible SWFE. Those normally favor New England but it’s going to be many days before we start to get a clearer picture of what’s going to happen….

You really need to stop this. Stop with the wishcasting and false information/lies. It’s not fair to the members who don’t have access to the models and come on here to get correct info. The EURO is NOT showing 2-3 inches in NYC on Saturday, it barely has over an inch and that’s at 10:1 ratios….the ratios on Saturday are going to be lower than 10:1

The new EURO and EPS still want absolutely nothing at all to do with Sunday, even further off shore. They still have some light snow for Saturday, an inch or so. Given the setup, I think the EPS/EURO is the most realistic for Sat-Sun. That’s my forecast, sticking by it

Could not agree more. The wishcasting and delusions going around twitter, even by some pro mets like Steve D is off the charts. This fantasy that we are about to see an instant light switch flip to a full on El Niño/+PDO pattern due to one WWB is completely ludicrous and absurd. Asinine. We are well into a 2nd year La Niña and over a decade of -PDO and majorly -ENSO events. The idea that there is going to be an instant, magical 180 degree flip of the PAC due to one WWB, is going to go down in flames. On a side note, this unexpected big EWB with the SOI positive surge has done some damage. The rapid upwelling was pretty impressive. Region 3.4 is still down below -0.8C on OISST, the lowest of this entire event (was at -0.9C a couple of days ago) and there are very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up throughout region 3.4 on the new SSTA charts, a sign of a rather healthy La Niña event. I’m sure the current RONI dropped too. As of this moment, it’s definitely not dead….yet @donsutherland1

Saturday may be an inch or so? The issue is snow ratios are not going to be good….likely less than 10:1. The boundary layer is going to suck, it’s going to be in the upper 30’s even up here where I am. The new EURO/EPS didn’t budge for Sunday

Womp womp womp. 6z GFS, full on, all out cave to the EPS. Who didn’t see that one coming?

I’m going with the EPS and op EURO on this one

Anyone actually believing the outlier op GFS is just asking for extreme disappointment. Its own ensemble (GEFS) says it’s off its rocker. The EURO op, EURO AI and EPS look absolutely nothing at all like it for Sat-Sun