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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is about to explode with warmth. A DWKW has reached the South American coast and has begun to surface, anomalies of +10C are being reported and sea level heights are at levels never seen before in history. This warmth is certain to spread into regions 3 and 3.4 in the next few weeks. Also, this WWB continues to look more and more impressive on the models, which is also going to help enhance the warming in those regions over the next several weeks…..
  2. snowman19
    No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet
  3. snowman19
    Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….
  4. snowman19
    The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter
  5. snowman19
    Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless. Eric Webb had this to say:
  6. snowman19
    In the last 50+ years, the super El Niño that most closely resembles this one in development/evolution, forcing and orientation (even though this one is much stronger and more east-based) is 1997, hands down
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take: “Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”
  9. snowman19
    This ++PMM setting more records….
  10. snowman19
    This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:
  11. snowman19
    I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them Edit: @mitchnick As big as the warm temperature departures are going to be this winter
  12. snowman19
    Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C
  13. snowman19
    He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015
  14. snowman19
    There are many more. Absolute clown show on there
  15. snowman19
    One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest
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