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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
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    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    That post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  2. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  3. snowman19
    Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C
  4. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  5. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  6. snowman19
    And this will spawn another DWKW
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
  9. snowman19
    Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI
  10. snowman19
    If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI
  11. snowman19
    The subsurface continues to boil…. The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs:
  12. snowman19
    Your point? All he did was post the model run
  13. snowman19
    New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
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