snowman19

There are none. That’s why I don’t like using them

I have no doubt that the SPV will be weaker this winter than 13-14 was. That was the most positive AO and NAO in history

That winter was also raging positive QBO

They are hyping for likes, follows, clout, retweets and views, as per usual. If just the NE PAC was warm and it was cold in the western North PAC around Japan (2013/2014) then yes that would be a +PDO alignment and would have that correlation. We don’t have that

Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions

If we do in fact end up below 100 ACE, I think we need to seriously reconsider the 3 main factors the majority of people use for tropical seasonal forecasts…..ENSO state, MDR SSTs and the overall AMO state

If we finish this season below 100 ACE I for one will not be the least bit surprised

Soil moisture very low across the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

@stormchaserchuck1 Your speculation on the -PDO/-ENSO link that late September and October would turn warm appears to be coming to fruition. It also looks like a continued dry pattern for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

The time has come to admit that this is not going to be a hyperactive (ACE/named storms) Atlantic tropical season. The ship has sailed folks

Looks like the Niña/-IOD standing wave has set up

Correct

The current SSTs in the WPAC match several other years that went on to see +WPO winters

Yes, that was a big part of HM’s disco on this topic (-QBO/-ENSO resulting in a flat Aleutian ridge and +QBO/-ENSO resulting in a poleward Aleutian high). He actually went into a very detailed disco with a bunch of images in his blog. Shame I can’t find it anymore to share on here