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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
  2. snowman19
    Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI
  3. snowman19
    If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI
  4. snowman19
    The subsurface continues to boil…. The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs:
  5. snowman19
    Your point? All he did was post the model run
  6. snowman19
    New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    Confidence growing in another massive WWB and DWKW. Also, good point about the extreme +PMM causing a secondary area of forcing
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    Modeling starting to show an ERW coupling with the MJO induced WWB at the end of this month as it moves across the PAC, enhancing it….
  11. snowman19
    If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C ^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher. This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”
  12. snowman19
    The RONI reached El Niño status on the daily yesterday, almost +0.6C. The traditional ONI was +1.0C
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  15. snowman19
    The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2: ^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”
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