snowman19

Where did I say NYC isn’t getting a foot? The RGEM has a foot in the city. As far as what the NAM has been selling? Throw it in the trash, it’s going to start backing down and playing catch up. There’s a reason why the NAM/SREF are getting retired this year and it’s not because it’s good. The only thing it’s good for is warm nose events and that’s it. This is a classic NAM over amp and it’s going to bust horribly IMO

The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do

I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally

The EPS mean is 7 inches for NYC more for Long Island

I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh

Even if this ends up as a 6-10 inch storm and the GFS is overdoing it, it will still end up scoring a coup. It was the only operational model to never completely lose it

Welp, I will say this with confidence, if this turns into another GFS fail, that model will be totally done and regarded as junk for a very long time in the eyes of many people….including a lot of pro mets….

The worst rug pull over the last 4 years was December, 2022. That month was primed to rival December, 2010. The only thing that ruined it was the severely negative PNA with a full latitude trough down to Baja (PAC/La Nina/-PDO issues again)…,everything else was absolutely textbook….huge west-based -NAO block, -AO, 50/50 low, -EPO, -WPO, true arctic air in place. Had the PNA even just been less negative, that month would have very likely been epic with at least one KU, if not more than one…..

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames