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snowman19

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About snowman19

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    HPN
  • Location:
    Rockland County

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  1. snowman19
    Agreed.
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  3. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
  4. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark My apologies for yesterday. My response was uncalled for
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  7. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  8. snowman19
    Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here? Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled: “We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.” https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  9. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
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  12. snowman19
    I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December
  13. snowman19
    FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event
  14. snowman19
    We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface
  15. snowman19
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