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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Agree, I think parts of the area receive snow beforehand, but that it likely our big window UNLESS this does follow 12/13, where we can experience blocking return and have another fun mid February through March. Obviously that is way out. Per Dons stats the numbers look good when the AO drops below -3. We could reach -4, the only downside for western areas of the sub forum is the block is displaced SE like 12/13.
  2. EastonSN+
    End of the run where the RNA seems to return, however we all know models rush pattern changes (i.e. the current one).
  3. EastonSN+
    Bit of an EPO spike!
  4. EastonSN+
    This is really looking more and more like 12/13. December blocking and PAC have similarities. We all know the fun that ensued February and March that year! No two winters are exact but I like the potential. Something that Winter caused the December and subsequent Feb. March blocking.
  5. EastonSN+
    Looks a bit like the December 2012 snowstorm. Bluewave showed the H5 December 12 a while back.
  6. EastonSN+
    Yup, especially as we get later in the month. As usual north and east has better chance than south and west.
  7. EastonSN+
    GEFS has the AO touching -4. If we stay conservative with -3.5, per the stats you have provided we are in pretty good shape for some potential!
  8. EastonSN+
    GEFS got a little better, EPS got a little worse. Perhaps they are finally going to get closer to a compromise.
  9. EastonSN+
    I lucked out with a dusting in Easton.
  10. EastonSN+
    Happy that the GEFS looks improved on PAC side LR.
  11. EastonSN+
    GEFS much improved on PAC side too!
  12. EastonSN+
    Can we reach -4? From the MA forum.
  13. EastonSN+
    Can't find it but Bluewave showed the H5 shot of December 2012. Looks close to what we are getting. Sign me up! Of course no two winters are alike, results may vary.
  14. EastonSN+
    One of the benefits of being in the northeast, always in the game for a monster like Feb 2006, March 2018, Feb 1983 etc etc. Also one or two big storms are how the coastal plain usually adds up snowfall. Was definitely back loaded however we also scored 4 inches that December so NOT a shut out early on. Even if NEMO was a pedestrian 10 inch event we would have reached average annual snowfall that year.
  15. EastonSN+
    https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age Good read. Our next threat window.
  16. EastonSN+
    Still emerging from the last mini ice age and have a ways to go before we plateau.
  17. EastonSN+
    Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month. Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more). Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.
  18. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! I tend to think it's 75% natural cyclical warming, 25% human induced. What is odd is it seems that April has been colder than average the last 10 years. May be a statistical anomaly.
  19. EastonSN+
    It's over, I was amped up and holding steady until I saw the 18z GFS. Next year may hold promise.
  20. EastonSN+
    AO approaching -4
  21. EastonSN+
    Check over Alaska and Greenland. That's a massive ror change.
  22. EastonSN+
    12z
  23. EastonSN+
    6z
  24. EastonSN+
    I mean the run over run change is massive. NAO block sinks SE, but the EPO completely flips from positive to negative
  25. EastonSN+
    Now THIS is a change in the GEFS. The Atlantic goes to crap in the LR but the PAC improves. GEPS remains unchanged.
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