HRRR hasn't been great honestly but I think the 2-4 call is fine. Maybe we get lucky and see some good banding set up. Let's just hit advisory criteria so we can't complain.
NAM is pretty solid even the 3k is 4ish. I'm personally thinking they put their range at 2-3. Hopefully we can get an overachiever 4-5 in this crap winter.
Next wave looks just south to me. May squeeze out an inch or two from ratios but most the qpf and energy is going by on the state border.
Btw NWS has a sense of humor