Rd9108

Btw who remembers this storm. Happened in mid March

Before we deal with winter weather again possibly we have some severe weather to deal with.

It can still snow in May here. I get that ot doesnt stick around though.

We shouldn't be taking model runs that are 10 days out seriously. EPS shows cold weather returning and the GEFS isnt nearly as torchy as the OP

No I actually like Bigjoe tbh.

I told some of you he does this. On X he posts about the cold coming. On his site he has a different tune of course since he could lose his business.

Well mid month guidance has shown a return of winter fwiw https://x.com/i/status/2028181023901553072

I think we ended up with a half inch of slop. Lol But it was getting built up leading up to it. So bored at work so went back to the archives. Looks like models were crushing us 3 days out and even 2 days out. We were all excited run to run to see things like this Eventually it started to get shunted south and weaker. Models started fringing the area pretty hard. Up until game time the models shifted south and areas in WV were the big winner with 6-10 inches. We barely even got advisory level snow.

What happened?

After today idk if I want it back.

Id venture to guess if this plays out that we will be stuck with a warm up and then winter weather returning unfortunately

Not really seeing any signs of anything notable but heres the latest NBM.

CMC similar. Models are pretty locked in this far out.

The problem is that pesky clipper is trending stronger on sunday which of course suppresses the main wave. We need that clipper to die. Still time but not great trends as of now.

Shocker or is it right where we want it this far out

Ill take one more warning event and then idc what it does after

One final one

Agreed. Storms like this always make me nervous to trend north over south unless its like a 1050 HP. Im sure there will be some good Ensemble members. Need the Euro to get on board

With all that being said this is a good signal on the GEFS.

Hence why im not getting too invested. If the signal is there this weekend then ill start really paying attention.

At worst we have an above average season with lets be honest a 12+ storm. Most places around the area received over 12 even if it wasnt official. As of now this is a B+ - A- season.

Euro still wants nothing to do with this so Im not getting truly invested until we see this show up more say saturday-sunday. Ensembles atleast still look great. Haven't looked at the EPS.

Its not official until I get text messages from IPhone users asking me if we are gonna get 8+. I wonder what Apple weather is saying. Thats sleet mixed in too i believe.

Ensembles should be semi alright

To be fair its trended south