CNY-LES FREAK

Everyone's in panic mode, lol, who cares about 2-3 bad model runs as it can change, and probably will change, but I doubt we're snow free the first 2-3 weeks of January. If that does happen to occur, then that'll be the first time that it's happened in my 15 years of living here. Its gonna snow, its Upstate NY not DC. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

MJO's usually disappear, or should I say die out, during ninos, but this ones hanging on a bit longer it seems but I doubt it lasts much longer but who really knows. Tbh, I'm not really looking forward to a prolonged period of single digit & teens for highs and lows below 0, F that, give me snow at 29F and I'm a happy camper as the older I get, the colder I get, or so it seems, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Snowing all morning with the sun out, lol, which just adds to the mood of the Day. Just an awesome scene out there and we're expecting an additional 3-4" tonight only to be washed away Thursday night followed by much colder air, but dry, so lets enjoy the white stuff while its here,lol. Get prepared for some boring weather unless the new year's system comes to fruition and its actually frozen and not wet cause the ball drop has a really good chance of dropping in the rain, which would ultimately suck ass, lol, so let's all cross our fingers, that's it's at least cold enough down to NYC for frozen precip cause rain would just suck royally but it's looking very unlikely! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Convergence band commencing to set up now across the area. This may be second compared to the chase with King in 03' Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

White out conditions, cant see 2ft in front of my car as I drive up 31, WOW. Radar looks to be lighting up with yellows and dark greens all over the place! Dont know how long it lasts, but who cares, lol, we've secured a white Christmas for sure. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Looks like NWS is expecting some wild weather with the fronta passage as there's thunder in the forecast this afternoon from 3-7PM so who knows whats goin on, alls I know is that I'm about to see the Sun, for a while too! Good deal for the KBUF crew, definitely a warm welcome! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'm loving where I'm at right now about 7 miles to the ESE if Fulton pretty mu h right in line with RGEM but since Im in the Jacked up area, it's a definite it's likely not to happen, lol! Good Disc amour the set up off both Lakes which all of a sudden looks quite interesting, lol, ya just gotta love LE and I guarantee it extends into Christmas Day cause once they start they usually go a bit longer than first anticipated as now they mention early Christmas morning. The lake effect setup does become a little more interesting in the presence of this clipper however. 850mb temps will drop off to around -10C on Monday. The cold pool aloft and deeper synoptic scale moisture will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to 8-10K feet Monday and Monday evening, setting the stage for a more robust lake response. CIPS analogs also support a good potential for accumulating lake snows east and southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Erie...the latest mesoscale guidance suggests a band will become better organized over the east end of the lake Monday morning as the cold front of the clipper crosses the lake. This may allow a brief, heavy band to move onshore from southern Erie County into the western Southern Tier on westerly flow, evolving into more of an upslope lake effect event by afternoon. Monday night boundary layer flow will become more northwest, which may allow for a brief Lake Huron connection to develop and continue to produce some modest lake effect snow across the western Southern Tier. The well aligned flow, good dendritic crystal growth, and synoptic scale support suggest there is some potential for advisory snow amounts, with a first early estimate of 3-6 inches total in the most persistent bands Monday and Monday night across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Decreasing moisture and instability will force the lake effect snow to taper off later Monday night, with any remaining snow showers coming to an end Tuesday morning. Off Lake Ontario...the latest mesoscale model guidance suggests a band will be getting organized over the lake Monday morning. This should briefly extend into the Tug Hill region for a time during the day Monday on westerly flow. Boundary layer flow will then become more northwest Monday night, carrying lake effect snow to the southeast corner of the lake. A convergence zone associated with the weak clipper low track may setup over the central and eastern portion of the lake, possibly aiding in concentrating the lake response across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. The closer proximity of the clipper low will also bring a greater degree of shear over Lake Ontario, which brings greater uncertainty with respect to band organization. The latest mesoscale guidance and overall setup suggest several inches of accumulation across the Tug Hill region Monday, with several inches possible southeast of Lake Ontario across Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties Monday night. The western end of the band may also clip northern and eastern Monroe County Monday night depending on where the convergence zone develops. There is at least a low potential for advisory amounts east and southeast of Lake Ontario, but the higher amount of shear brings lower confidence here as opposed to Lake Erie. A few snow showers may linger southeast of the lake into Tuesday morning before dry air and lowering inversion heights bring an end to the lake response. Another very weak wave will cross the eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday night and Wednesday. This feature may produce a few scattered light snow showers with spotty, very light accumulations. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Bring the -30C isotherm over Lake Ontario and we wont need much moisture, lol, and with a WNW-NW wind flow, we'll see a spray of snow for days on end, as we did in Jan 03. It won't add up to much but 2-3"/day for a few days at a time, will eventually add up, especially with the forecasted temps for the time period. The end of Dec into Jan can get quite interesting for the belts to the E-SE of LO so we'll see. 02-03 analog so far is straight on and if the system this weekend would of been snow, which we'll miss by a few degrees, it would be almost identical. From here on out that year we went cold, and snowy so we'll see how it does from here on out. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Some real thin skinned individuals in this here thread, what a shame. What a difference a few yrs makes, and some wonder why ppl don't post in here anymore, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

The GFS will.lose the weekend storm altogether come Wednesday, then it will come back to it's original forecast, lol. Gotta love the GooFuS but it has gotten a bit better as of late! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yeah those 4, plus the 7200 students at OSU bonehead, lol! When you speak of the Tug, in such ways then its understandable, but NOT Oswego County. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

As a matter of fact, the Tug stands the best chance of seeing a few fluffy inches through this evening and the overnight because there in a great spot for several SW"s that are currently moving through the area. Theres I think 3 that have to pass through and we're seeing the results of the first, in a series, so the Tug looks like the best spot to be! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Looks impressive on radar that's for sure! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Would be nice if we had a few posters in Oneida County cause I would love an obs report from KRME to see what their experiencing. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

This precip is having a very hard time getting in here because of the dry air just off the deck. Let her saturate, as it'll wet bulb down to at least 31F, as the dp where I am is sitting at 26F. Its gonna get in here and the longer it takes to precipitate, the better chance we have at seeing frozen precip rather than fz/rn as sleet isn't really a possibility but plain rn is. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

A roller coaster of a pattern. This week we go from rain to rn/snow then snow. We accumulate a few to several inches, then we warm next week again into upper 40's low 50's and melt it all, then we cool once again before the holidays but then I think we head into a more sustained cold and snowy scenario or pattern for the next several weeks. This year so far is mimicking 2002-03 to a T, a strong analog that is working like a charm so far, where November came in way below normal then Dec came and we warmed and warmed more so than we do the next couple weeks. It managed to snow a ft in Syracuse Xmas day and it was spectacular and magical looking on that Morning. It did so in a relatively warm period too, so it can snow, and may do so this yr as well, so I wouldn't discount a system for the holiday week so we'll see what happens. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

What did the Euro show for Tomorrow? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Euro has something but its confused as it doesnt want to commit to any one solution. Man the models are surely confused about this pattern that's for certain. With all the variables in play this yr, it may be a rough yr for all the models, excluding the SR meso's of course. Its just tough to believe anything the models say right now and that sucks, lol, even within 3 days it seems like. The light snow we receive early Morning through tomorrow morning was first forecasted to traverse PA and head off the Jersey coast and now its heading straight east into New England?? Models had this happening during yesterdays runs, so models have no clue right now so I would take it all with a grain of salt, at least I am. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

8-12", lol, what a joke! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I got 2.5, just checked, waiting on this next round of showers, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yes they did, most models showed the band going to the north of the city into Niagara County and actually it's pretty much seeding the band that's affecting Watertown currently. But then this afternoon as the bandri intensifies as it heads back south and effect both the North and South Towns once again before sweeping through and finally ending up in the hills to the south of the city where it usually ends up. This is what I saw in the models anyway Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

What's really nuts is the simple fact that we just went through a very below-normal November without having any Blockbuster events to the east of Lake Ontario as well Northeast of Lake Erie. And that's also with having both leaks above normal temperature wise. That's pretty extraordinary if you ask me but we still managed to end the month with close to 40 in of snow because of that synoptic event and all the Northwest flow events for us to the southeast of the Lakes Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

We pretty much just said the same thing lol but you got to it first, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Eries band should move North of the city this morning sometime, at least that's what's forecasted, but who really knows right, then it should start to sag back South during the afternoon so Kbuf should get affected twice today. Once from the band moving North, then as it moves South this afternoon so we'll see how this plays out. Most meso's are off their mark right now as far as placement especially the HRRR. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Rlmao Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk