CNY-LES FREAK

It was in July bro, that will NEVER happen here, NEVER, but!perhaps you didnt see the July part. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Wow, it seems as though both models seem to be keying in on the same time frame which from this lead time is quite unusual to say the least. I'm almost certain the GFS will lose it when we get between 4-6 day lead time. If this does come to fruition, this might have to go into the books as one of the earliest. I think it'll make it at least into the top 10. If these two models look this way come Wed, then ill jump on the train otherwise I'll be a bystander for now. Anyway, started as IP/SN mix but it looks like its gonna switch over pretty quickly as it looks like there's a band setting up on a NNW trajectory right over my house. Yeah I know, not a conducive wind flow, but don't laugh, as I've seen a band connected to James Bay once, on this trajectory, and Lake Effect King can vouch for me on that one, cause we couldnt believe what we were seeing, lol. It looked pretty awesome on both the water vapor loop and the visible sat image as it was quite evident on both. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yeah they happen quite often off Lake Ontario as well, but I never heard of one actually forming over water, dissipating then reforming back over land is that what they're saying happened, if so that definitely doesn't happen too often. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Still sitting at 43F so I doubt we see anything here, where I am, about 20 miles inland from the shore. A stary night out there tonight as theres not a cloud in the sky, well at least at the moment there isn't. It also feels extremely dry as the CF pushed through so I'm feeling quite pessimistic about seeing any precip at all, nevermind whether its frozen or not. We have to get the moisture in here first. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yes they were, as the temps were not expected to get to where they got so that was a surprise, that's why I don't think we're gonna see anything other than a few pessimistic flurries, come tomorrow, well I dont think anyway. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Anything is possible when it comes to Weather, and I mean anything. I was living in Fort Collins in 1998 and I can remember it like it happened yesterday. It was a warm July, yes July afternoon, and I can't remember the exact temp it got to that particular afternoon, but safe to say, it got pretty warm. When we got to the bar, for happy hr that day, it was about 5:30 and like I said it was Sunny and warm when we got there, but all hell broke loose at about 11. I never in my life seen anything like what I seen nor experienced that night in Colorado, or shall I say, what I saw that night. When we left the bar, I was in shorts, as was everyone else including the women we were hanging with. When we stepped outside it was absolutely pouring snow with about 2" OTG already. I've never seen it go from 78F-82F down to 32 with heavy snow in matter of a few hrs let's say but altitude can easily do it. When that cold front came through, which I later found out was the culprit for the anomalous weather we were experiencing that night in early July, everything changed and quick, because when we left it was like a shock to my system, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Tell you one thing, the temperature difference between the two models is just weird from 8 days out. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'll take the compromise between the both of them Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

5:00 and still in the upper 50s doubt any Frozen precip falls anywhere near the lake plain tonight Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Man that sw that's going to move through later on this evening and the overnight hours looks pretty vigorous on satellite as well as some of the radar returns I'm seeing out in WNY. Surprised there hasn't been a little more traffic on this thread but I guess the bark could be much bigger than the bite sometimes but it sure looks like heavy rain in many locations. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Riding that 02-03 analog as if it's a matter of life and death Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Wire to wire beginning the second week in November, mini thaw second week of January back 2 brutal winter mid-march perhaps early April. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Alaska may have one of their warmest winters on record according to some forecasters but who really knows. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Theres a whole thread devoted to AGW if you feel so inclined to debate the issue, thanks. I'm more concerned about our next snow chance which is Sunday, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

"None" read my post. Was I NOT clear when I stated that I will not debate this preposterous hoax, Thanks. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yeah, and they rose in the early 20th Century as well but no one seemed too alarmed back then? So why then the huge concern now? In my mind its Cyclical, simple as that, but I dont get into the heated debate that's been present. Its my opinion is all. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

JB is the Man! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

NWS doesn't issue a forecast, they issue a probability map, which anyone with a brain can do, on a seasonal basis so I wouldnt exactly call it a forecast. When its Normal, that actually means theres an equal chance for below to above normal temps, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

El nino already exists so what are they talking about? They base their forecast every year on ENSO, so whats the difference this yr? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

This has been true for the last 25yrs as I really cant think of a yr that they didnt forecast a full torch wire to wire. As long as they know they are wrong every year, then who cares. The Farmers Almanac does a better job than the NWS does on their seasonal outlook, and that's sad. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I think most of, if not all, of the board see's their firat flakes this evening into the overnight and if it doesnt happen this time around, it'll happen this weekend, for sure, as the next even colder shot moves through. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I didnt notice anything up here just North of 31, interesting, but then again I havent been outside yet today. It probably did, especially if it did so in kroc. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Old Forge seeing their first flakes of the season it looks like in the distance. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'm riding the 02-03' analog as if my life depended on it, lol. It's nearly a spitting image in the means wrt where we are now and where we're headed. Cold last half of October only to be greeted by a warmer but near seasonal early to mid- November then the hammer comes down and crushes us right through the holidays and beyond! Wire to wire rarely ever happens. Can it happen, yes but highly unlikely. We all forget winter doesn't officially start till Dec 1st for Mets and 21st for the public. Wind is really bad as I've lost power twice now. A third time will end it. Man is it howling out there right now though. The NWS mentioned gales behind front but nothing even close to what's happening. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Interesting indeed! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk