CNY-LES FREAK

Yeah the sun is pretty much nonexistent up there from Oct-April then they start to break up, lol. Any kind of W-SW-WSW and even NW winds will create a blanket of clouds over the area. I would love it, but to each his own. I'm sure a lot of ppl suffer from SAD ( (seasonal affect disorder) up there, which sucks, but its real. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Our first event, of the analog yr I'm watching, 02-03' happened on the 1st and second of November, https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2002-2003&event=A Doesnt look like that's gonna happen this yr, in fact, I dont even see our first serious potential yet, but as November wears on, I'd start to seriously look for an event towards the middle of the month but that's just a guess and a wishcast, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Keep dreaming Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'm not even going to begin looking for snow till about November 20 or right around Thanksgiving time because that's when we usually see out first measurable or accumulating event of the season. It seems as though every year winter begins later and later and ends earlier and earlier. What does that mean, who really knows, but I'm just looking for an old fashioned Winter! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Real nice I guess if one lived in Old Forge, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I dont really remember anyone forecasting a torch anytime in November but I may be wrong or I may have missed it. I never thought we were headed in the AN range anytime soon as I'm riding that 02-03 analog and once Winter hit, in mid November, it stuck! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Ok, so Lowville's the winner with an 1" to start off, what may be, a great or horrible but perhaps more towards normal Winter. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Perhaps a bit to many edibles at the time of the post, lol! I guess it was kind of my interpretation, no harm, cheers to a good Winter up in those parts. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

So another words Nick Novembers a torch and Decembers the transition period into real Winter. I'll buy that, since that start of Met Winter ain't until Dec 1 anyways. This is real real early, it's almost like expecting a good system in April, lol, and who.wants that, certainly not me, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I dont think anyone reported any frozen precip with this current system that rolled through. The upper lvl though is now moving through which should eventually veer our winds into the NW-NNW but by that time, return flow from the next system starts to approach with more rain. Lots and lots of precip on the way, with most being in the liquid form. Thats ok, till the middle of November, then things better change otherwise....... I wont go there yet! This is why I hate hyped up Winter forecasts cause they are almost always wrong, but we get sucked in, always. Just because it happened before during a weak Nino doesn't mean the same factors, that made that yr a BN winter with AN snow are there this yr, cause their not. Yeah a weak nino is present but all the cold/warm pools are in different areas, then that weak Nino stuff goes out the window. No 2 Winters are alike, they may be Similar wrt, sensible weather, but their rarely the same, both with snow and cold. If we went by the snow correlation then ppl would be saying this may be one of the warmest winters on record cause of the lack of snowfall in Siberia, but Canada is AN. But what does this really mean? NOTHING!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

02-03' got warm, in fact, the whole month of October was quite warm, with the beginning of the month reaching the mid 80's like we did, and towards the end of the month another sort of Indian Summer week hit, but after Thanksgiving, all hell broke loose, lo,l and all weather enthusiasts rejoiced until March the following yr. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I seriously dont quite understand that new probability map cause of AK does in fact, get that warm over the top, then we get cold, simple as that. That map is also showing me that there will be many chances for precip as their will be a stormy zone between the 2 airmasses so this really isnt that bad! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

And it begins, lol. The pushing back of the cold air week after week will now begin, lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Looks like your going with 2014-15 as an analog while I'm riding 02-03 big time. Both were fantastic winters and I believe both were below temps and abv snow, with 14-15 being the colder of the 2. I'll be happy with either one. You also mentioned 76-77' which was brutally cold with snow also, but I don't know how much up here cause I was 4 and lived in Jersey city. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Where did all the cold air go that was in Canada, lol? It gets wiped out completely with this upcoming system. Looks like a complete washout, which was a given but I gotta say, the globals pegged this sucker from 10 days out. That to me is a good sign of things to come. Maybe now we can actually take the model at least 5 days out with some kind of certainty, perhaps 40%. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Awesome, so these a couple of spots to stop off, for some hot chocolate and a fresh radar view [emoji41][emoji41][emoji1787]! Yeah, it's still early though Matt so I doubt you'll be disappointed come the middle of December into the middle of January. Remember Lake Ontario never freezes, so there are chances all the way up until February, so I trust you'll be satisfied by Marvh, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Is that your new location Wolf? If so, that is awesome to say the least, as you'll get hit from almost every direction the wind wishes to veer, lol! Some good LES gettogethers may be possible now that there's someone up there. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

It actually would of been a lot more than 2-4 or for that matter 3-6, lol, but I'm sure something like that only happens when the cold air is bottlenecked up in CA! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Man the radar is impressively lighting up big time ESE of LO, nice! Like everyone has said already, I wish it was a month from now, lol, that's for damn sure. This would be a quick 2-4 3-6 incher right here forming. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Why we looking for snow before Thanksgiving anyway? If it does snow it's going to fall and be gone in 3 days anyway who wants that, certainly not me! Bring the rain, the more rain in the fall the better! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I gotta say, also judging from that graph that the UkMet is actually out performing the Euro, no, interesting. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Nick you have a link for this page? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Pretty sure we're gonna see a system some time next weekend or perhaps early next week but the details at this lead time are just up.in the air, unfortunately. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

It looks like its rain even at the higher elevations throughout CNY. We need to get into November. This cold came too early this yr and it doesn't look like its letting up any time soon, lol. Watch whatvya wish for. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

That's perfect for the GFS at this lead time! I hope it stays this way for days. Just figures that a healthy band forms right over us here in CNY, just as the temps started to go up, lol. Man what horrific luck. I shouldn't even be lookin for snow yet as its before Halloween for crying out loud. To to early man, I need to wake up. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk