CNY-LES FREAK

Are you serious? No tracks bode well for us, lol!

Most meso models are too cold right now as they pretty much all have KSYR with a temp between 22-24 no higher and KSYR is currently sitting at 27F, not good!

Next run it'll realize its 100 miles further NW than most, if not all other guidance so its a big time outlier right about now, almost at showtime too!!

Never transfers, stupid, but maybe its right this once, nah I doubt it, lol!

Worst model ever, TOSS!!

Snow growth with this event isn't gonna be all that great unfortunately.

I'm just trying to point out for myself what can go wrong with this event, this way it won't be a surprise, like I didn't know there was a possibility for that to happen, lol! Yes, I remember the AVN all too well cause it wasn't that good, lol!

Its only one frame, 3hrs but this isn't very promising as the snow growth region is virtually nonexistent while we're flirting with IP/FZRN and its not a shallow layer either so lets hope this all changes by this evening! One promising note is the Omega is decent.

The NW jogs, trend whatever you wanna call it has stopped and if anything this SLP will realize that it doesn't want to ride into that kind Frigid airmass but rather why not head or better yet make the damn transfer just a bit sooner, lol! I've seen crazier things happen while living in Jersey City for the first 25yrs of my life. Talk about gut wrenching busts, and back then we only had the ETA, NGM and another that started with a M. The ETA was an awesome model especially when coupled with the EURO of old, WOW, what a combo! When they locked on, man did they, lol!

You ain't gonna see or be anywhere near any kind of taint and I'm sure you know this!

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how quickly the mid levels warm with a SLP in WC PA . One other point ill make is that this system has to drop some serious accumulations in a relatively short period of time as its only a 12-15hr event, correct? The dynamics are definitely there but If its banding thats gonna get er done then I'd imagine there's gonna be some serious fluctuations of totals throughout our CWA. This is gonna be a very interesting event to track for sure!

I expect there to be some serious banding later this evening into tonight!

Pretty awesome double jet structure over the Northeast, which will aid in strengthening this SLP!

06Z was even a few ticks colder

I think the SREF map Wolf posted is probably the most realistic snowfall map yet!

Oh there it is, lol, in E.OH- W PA and its headed this way but it looks like its mainly light snow that'll last a few hrs at best!

Looks like the batch of precip for tday is basically a few showers, lol!

Unfortunately, with a H850 lp this close to our CWA, it'll be hard pressed for any real lake enhancement to really get going, except out West along the Niagara escarpment as temps are nowhere near ideal for any LE but that could change and most likely will!

The precip output makes absolutely no sense whatsoever so 'Im just gonna disregard these precip maps cause not once have they ever come to fruition or been right for that matter!

Not even close but you can keep dreaming, lol!

I said we'd dry slot 3 days ago when I posted the H700 maps and as quick as the models came NW, they can do the same tomorrow but the other way but the model hugging in this forum is just Nuts, lol, but it's understandable. I'd ban those Kuchie maps cause it gives us nothing but false hope and in weather, hope how's right out the window, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ya see, that friggen model is straight garbage plain and simple! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's inevitable that most of CNY mix's to an extent but I still think places North and West of the Cuse stay mostly frozen throughout this event. We better thank our lucky stars that this SLP is booking through the Northeast cause if it was to slow down just a bit, we'd all be screwed, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I got and even better idea, stop posting that horrific model cause it's all over the effin place. Is it the only model right now showing such a NW solution cause I haven't seen any others with such a NW solution? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

My call from a couple days ago looks damn good right now, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk