CNY-LES FREAK

Every degree counts during a LES event

Unfortunately, I think thats headed for Syracuse, but I may be wrong, either way we'll see!

Every model has its own biases but I don't know what the RGEM's are. Its a great model for LE but its not infallible either, lol!

Because I think the Southern sections of the county will see at least advisory totals as its already snowing moderately here with just a spray occurring atm with lots more to follow, but like I said it really doesn't matter either way as the night CNY-WX and I got close to 15", I don't even think there was an adv posted unless I'm mistaken. Ppl don't seem to understand that models cant predict the axact location of where a band is going to form or move to for that matter as guidance can only do so much. I've never, in my 20yrs of living here, seen a LES band the way the NWS showed in their snow graphics but maybe this will be a first, lol, who really knows right?

Still trying to figure out why Oswego isn't under any flags, not that it matters much anyway? I'm also trying to figure out why the band just to the North of KROC is dropping Southward so fast as winds across the lake are still W-WNW, weird I tell ya!

Yeah, I already tried ME and i never worked out especially considering I lived right on the Ocean and it wouldn't begin to snow along the Coast until Mid-December into January so thats a no go for me again but perhaps VT somewhere above 2500' ASL

I might have to take a drive down to the Cuse and chill for a while as I believe rates are going to increase down there substantially later this evening!

We can't even get snow on a WNW-NW wind flow anymore as it seems to wanna form over Wayne county and head SE from there which is a big change from years past. Definitely time to start looking and searching for somewhere I can get my snow fix cause around here just isn't cutting it anymore unfortunately!

Just checked out the soundings for Hamburg, lol, you guys (BW) are gonna get absolute pounded! snows through the night into tomorrow afternoon so enjoy!

The Cuse is gonna Jack with this event I think or somewhere close to them. Perhaps Tully, or maybe Pompi but suffice to say one of those so. Onondaga towns is in for a shellacking. lol!

The band is starting to get its act together right through the center of Wayne Cty. There's still quite a bit of shear around so who knows, lol!

There's no way you don't get involved in this event and if you don't, well then you're truly cursed, lol!

Matt this event is just for you, ENJOY!!

This may be the first time in the 20yrs that I've lived here that I have not seen Oswego county involved in a WWA or LSW while Wayne, No. Cayuga and Onondaga are so this is gonna be neat to track!

Id bet every dollar I have in my pockets that Oswego County does just as good as the other three counties under advisories, lol! Not where I am either, lol!

And you know what we get TUG, NADA, lol, but at least we'en getting used to the constant snow hole thats been over us for the past couple weeks now and perhaps more, lol. Our time will come but not this yr I don't think!

I'm not even sure I'm buying these models just yet wrt placement of the band. I'd imagine this band will be either further to the North by e few - Several miles or to the South. WIll look at soundings to see whats really happening.Seriously though. how many times have either the meso's nail the placement of the bands ahead of time as their always off to a degree and thats the problem, lol! What do we have, 6 meso models? I'm sure one of them has the correct solution, but not a direct replica but close so we'll see which one has the best representation of the band ts trajectory as well as the intensity of the band! The band the past couple days had me in the JP as Wolfie pointed out and from that point on it's been all down hill, lol, but I expected as much because weather changes constantly thats why we can't say its a lock cause it most certainly isn't especially LES. Look what happened just 2 nights ago where we we gonna get several to as much as a foot in some stops and it just shit the bed right in front of us, lol! Never an exact science unfortunately but we can guess as much as we want...

RLMAO

There isn't even a surface reflection with this system as it's pretty much a CF or shall I say a stationary front where a storm may perhaps form but the lowest pressure I could find was 1014 MB in the GOM. The mid levels lp's are better developed /organized than the surface is but perhaps we're just seeing the beginnings of a surface reflection down in the gulf, who really knows, lol! Surface Then we have the 925 MB 700MB Moisture lvl Suffice to say, we have quite a disorganized system here and who knows if its gonna get its act together but ya never know, lol!

The SLP over the GOM is essentially waiting for the energy thats now coming through the 4 corners area of the SW and then it hauls ass up the Coast. Its that Jetstreak that steers this event further to the S&E but maybe there's a chance, who knows but if it benefits us then forget about it happening, lol!

Maybe the kinks are showing us where this thing is headed, lol!

NE winds off the Dacks and the Tug, which totally sucks ass!

Which models are you looking at, lol!

Absolutely disgusting to say the least!

This will be the one time this yr that we need the NW trend or last minute 200 mile jog to the NW and it just doesn't want to happen, just our luck right!