CNY-LES FREAK

no doubt, and some are still drinking the koolaid, lol!

The radar is just maddening. Looks like theres some kind of forcefield overhead that won't allow snow to fall, weird!

Colossal BUST!

Sounds reasonable.

That model is just something else. I really doubt we see anywheres near what their forecasting, so we'll see!

They've been pretty insistent that Northern Oswego gets skunked so we'll see.

Yeah, Im not so certain but we'll definitely see where that cutoff sets up as I'm really interested in seeing if the models can actually verify for once, lol!

Just North of the great northern mall so very close to he county border of Onondaga

We'll be alright but its just gonna take a bit longer is all.

We've been in some darker returns for the past few hrs with absolutely nothing to show for it, as we're having a virga party. It was completely Sunny here for a few hrs as well and it dried up pretty good in that time frame so we've been trying to saturate ever since and its having a hard time doing so as the 700mb re orientates itself as the coastal continues to stack.

Everything I have looked at looks good to go. The mid level slp positions are all ideal for precip to continue with the closed 700mb lp providing copious amts of moisture on strong easterly winds.

Look at the massive dry-slot thats gonna be punching into NYC. Not sure if any modeling picked up on this massive intrusion of dry-air but it'll for sure put a damper on some of the forecasted amounts down there.

This is clearly an Easterly flow at the surface and just off the deck up to about 850mb then they start to veer to tyhe NE then, well you all know how winds flow during an event but this is what the models kept catching on in the MV with perhaps a bit of a downsloping effect off the Southern Dacks so it will be interesting to see if has any credence. At the onset of the event, there doesn't appear to be any downsloping signature but that can all change as the event starts unfolding and exactly how long the winds stay at this direction so ill be keeping an eye on this because there have been quite a few events now that the SREF's and several other meso's keep catching this does it ever come to fruition? we'll see........ So far, light to mod sn with as temp of 18F and the radar looks promising for once during an event, lol, enjoy!

Was on the phone with my bro in Staten Island and he just heard a clap of thunder then boom a lightening strike!

Squeeze play going on right now with the 700MB LP, as its hitting a cinder-block wall, lol, coupled with a super dry airmass suffice to say, we won't be seeing any accumulating snow till tomorrow afternoon cause its just eating away at the moisture and it does so for a long time shes also moving ENE at a snails pace, lol. Whats important is where this LP starts to decay while most of the energy starts to transfer to the coastal so we'll see how this all plays out.

edibles have come a long long way!

Yeah well so am I, lol!

Nam finally seeing the light, lol!

Winds start out Easterly bro then go NW then NNW after the system passes so I don't exactly know what ur getting at here but anyway......

I believe so but I'm not too sure. I'm not too concerned with all these precip maps as much as I am with the mid lvl lp's as thats where we get all out moisture and precip from. In the end, those maps rarely ever verify, thats why I usually don't pay them any mind but they sure look colorful, lol! Case in point, the last system didn't resemble the any of the precip maps that were posted prior to the event, when the event was over and done with so why are we so concerned with them now?? The 850MB lp with the last event was situated right over KROC and thats why we slotted fairly quickly after the first band came through and then we drizzled for the next several hrs before what minimal LE kicked in. The 700MB LP with the last event was also situated right overhead but with this next event both the 700 and 850 LP's go to our South so I can't see how we escape a plowable snowfall here in CNY but I could be wrong but we'll see soon enough!

If this beautifully closed 700mb lp moves ENE through PA then we'll be ok as we'll be just to the NW of the 700mb trough which would be ideal for our area so we'll see but this will turn into a nowcasting situation come tomorrow evening into Wednesday!

Just kidding Tim

NO

Why, cause it gives you the most snow, lol

We're toast bro so if I were you I seriously wouldn't expect more than a few fluffy inches. We don't downslope off the Tug where I live so thats not my concern. My concern is the precip field doesn't quite get this far North but with the last several events the SLP came much further NW than was first forecasted but it doesn't mean It'll happen this time around, which it probably won't, thats why I'm not getting my hopes up for this one!