CNY-LES FREAK

PV's are extremely tough to forecast cause they overwhelm the pattern. They pretty much meander about and go wherever they please, lol, but I definitely see that on a few of the globals but I'm thinking that'll change as we're in a pretty stable synoptic pattern and I doubt a large scale pattern shift to a much warmer regime. Can it happen, sure can, but will it? I seriously doubt it.

Its headed right for yiu Wolfie, lol, hope you cash in!

Can someone post the radar out of KBUF cause Id like to see the Lake firing up right after the frontal passage. You can actually see the band through the Cumulus Nimbus cloud deck!

Thats all from the added lift associated with the AFrontal boundary with steep lapse rates as well!

Same here, filtered sunshine and it sure doesn't look like its about to snow, weird actually.

Its coming, lol, and if you check out the visible satellite imagery you can already see the LE starting to fly on what looks to be a WNW flow.

Look at the band effecting So Onondaga and Cortland counties, lol, and we're smack dab in thew middle of both batches of precip, typical, lol!

This CF is taking its sweet ass time getting here thats for sure, ,lol!

I think this graphic out of KBUF is spot on with their depiction of where the heavier snows will fall tonight into tomorrow. Its not even over me as its jacking Oswego to Mexicoi and Hannibal looks to be the winner with 6-8"

Lets wait till it actually gets here cause things might change in a hurry once it hits a moisture filled environment.

I think KALB might have to raise some flags soon as the radar looks quite impressive downwind from them.

Look at that chunk of Polar Air sitting on Lake Superior! Its not 850 either as its at 925mb basically the surface or just off the deck depending on elevation.

Yep, shes starting to break up unfortunately for us

The precip along the front may actually get enhanced as the front interacts with a moisture rich environment so we'll see. Great surprise for our WNY weenies!

Its entering Wayne county as we type so so far so good, lol!

Its a CF/AF so it should stay in tact as it moves this way but ya never know, lol!

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense as their usually on top of that but perhaps they're not all that confident??

Very nice Skew for our area tonight as winds are aligned nicely out of the WNW/NW

When KBUF issues WWA for No Cayuga,Wayne and Oswego (mainly Southern) counties, then I'm a bit more confident of at least something coming to fruition but they too can be wrong so we'll see real soon, lol!

Agree 100% as I haven't seen pavement since the first fluke LES band that dropped close to 15"! Lovin every minute of it, with lots more to come fo sho!

Super quick mover, WOW, the back edge of the precip is already nearing WV!

I'm hoping that batch of precip can stay together until it gets here otherwise I'm afraid we won't see a flake till tonight. The Coastal won't quite make it this far as most models were showing 1-2" at most, but even that seems like a stretch now, so we'll see I suppose!

Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 336 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Heres the 3KM Nam for tomorrow nights LES and whoever is under this band will get appreciable snows in a relatively short window as the band is pretty much gone by 12Z Monday. Look at the Omega and the converging winds at the surface!