CNY-LES FREAK

00Z

I really wouldn't concern yourself with model noise, lol. No 2 runs will look identical to each other so you should expect some perturbations either to the N&W or S&E

Hey, BGM, can you post the H700 as I would like to see the dry slot cause I know there is one lurking around somewhere, lol

I've been posting in the other thread, RLMAO, all by myself as I didn't realize BW started a new thread!

Me Too, If he does well, that means I'll do great, lol!

I bet we don't see a flake from whats passing us now, as its missing us completely or shall I say its just missing us, lol. I guess we can go ahead and subtract the 2" that I was supposed to get from tonights light snow that we're not gonna see, lol!

No Way, its right where its supposed to be, lol!

We don't know what the mid lvls look like so we don't know what happens but its a week out so does it really matter at this pt.

Front end thump, then hopefully we get dry-slotted then a little drizzle foll;owed by some minimal LES, lol!

Also, we always say the system has yet to reach the WC wrt guidance ingesting sufficient data, well the system is just about to come ashore so we'll see if the 12Z runs change or will they hold serve, lol!

Yes, definitely gets to KBGM as well as KITH so that definitely has to be watched for sure!

You're comparing one discussion, lol, come on BW? It all depends on the author, plain and simple.

Tim nailed this yesterday, RLMAO, he said they will separate the events this way they won;t have to raise flags, lol!

Just a perfect track for most of W-CNY and the Finger Lakes and pretty much all of NYS, lol!

Euro's locked and loaded for the Tuesday event for sure but definitely not for the Thursday-Friday event as lots needs to be sorted out and frankly we need to get through this first one first as the Tuesday event might be our 50/50 LP that perhaps slows the second event down a bit and that's what I'm hoping for because the flow is super progressive right now and we need to slow it down somehow and a 50/50 sounds like the perfect remedy, lol!

There must be some insane banding with this event to reach some of the totals I've been seeing thrown around although ratios with this may be closer to 13"/1" and definitely no Kuchera numbers will be reached but I'm sure we all know this. Its hard to believe were actually finally getting an event that will benefit the whole damn board, lol, although if this comes any further NW then KBGM might have to start sweating a bit, lol, Otherwise the rest of us seem to be sitting pretty for once, lol, and it feels good to not be worried about mixing issues and dry slotting so here's to tracking this SLP the next few days. We also gotta hope Mondays overrunning needs to overachieve for us to see anywhere near 1'.

Euro is completely locked in

I gotta agree with what the NWS said about it being a quick mover as it moves pretty quickly through the Northeast and off the coast and its outta here so there better be some decent rates or some CSI banding if we're looking for some decent totals.

There goes that damn minima again right over all of Oswego county?? Just doesn't wanna go away, lol as its trolling us big time!

I don't think the Monday's overrunning is a separate event because it just isn't, lol! Its part of Tuesday's event no, as that's what it looks like to me. Its not like its a separate SLP altogether right, unless I'm missing something?

Disturbance after disturbance is just rotating around that enormous Mid-Upper Level trough (PV) in C-CA! Just an incredibly busy period of weather is about to engulf most of the lower 48 except for So. Cali, lol!

True, but you know what I mean, lol!

We have been burned quite a bit this season so I shouldn't of said anything as I've just jinxed the whole board, lol!

The other thing is how much uncertainty is there actually? Most ensembles have narrowed the goal posts quite a bit with todays guidance but I suppose minor tweaks will be needed but I seriously doubt any drastic changes occur between now and Monday evening but we'll see I suppose!

We all have our own opinion on this matter as many others agree, lol, but I'll just default to KBGM's for now on, thanks, lol!