CNY-LES FREAK

Without question!

Winter in a week in Fulton!they received their total average in one week, lo

I actually like a NNW flow as it travels right down rt264 in Oswego cty, then right into my BY but they don 't happen too often. And the air thats accompanying this through is fresh Arctic Air without any modification so I bet the temps forecasted are even close but we'll see. The models are underestimating this batch of air as it's barreling in on a cross Polar flow which we haven't seen in quite sometime and if the EPO goes Negative for a period. we might see an extended period with a cross polar flow

RLMAO, why??? they never even come close to verifying but I guess its for enjoyment purposes, lol!

KBUF mentioned it as well, I posted it earlier, and they are not liking the LES potential for tomorrow- Fri & Sat so we'll see!

It's definitely snowing quite nicely right now That's for sure Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Look at how deep the snow growth region is this evening, lol, thats why there are parachutes coming down, Nice!! Its close to 3.5 miles thick, nuts! but its also super dry as well and theres a cap ( inversion) at 850mb so I wouldn't expect anything significant the next couple days. in fact 00Z Friday it looks even worse, lol, so IDK whats going on, lol!

It`s still anticipated that as the weakening area of low pressure pushes toward WV/western PA on Monday, it will give way to a developing coastal low somewhere off the VA/Delmarva coast. Model discrepancies continue as to just if/how this system may impact our area. As of the 27/12Z guidance package, all models are in good agreement that a rapidly intensifying nor`easter will develop just off the coast at the start of the work week, then move in a northeasterly direction. The question is...does it hug the New England coast or stay further east into the Atlantic. The same area of high pressure mentioned just above will have say in this as well. Separating things out, the 27/12Z Canadian and GFS keep more influence from the large area of Canadian high pressure locked in across our area, keeping the bulk of the precip to our east and southeast as the low stays further off the coast, with just some weak northerly flow snow showers south of Lake Ontario through mid week. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF weakens the Canadian high and allows it to retreat a bit further north. This would allow for slower tracking storm system that hugs the New England coast, throwing Atlantic moisture back across our region Tuesday and possibly lingering into Wednesday in the form of snow. Putting it all together, still a high degree of uncertainty as to how exactly this scenario will evolve. Will elect to go with SChc/Chc PoPs due to a low confidence forecast with this system at this time, with the best chance of snow east of Lake Ontario closer to the storm. This one will need to be watched closely as there seems to be a more northerly/northwesterly track to many of the systems depicted in the long range so far this winter season. Stay tuned. I thought the Euro was the Southern outlier, so now that has switched? I must be confused, lol! KBUF definitely doesn't sound too enthused about the Thurs-Sat time frame as they call the Lake Snows a nuisance, lol!

If the GFS is anywhere near right, then I wouldn't be getting my hopes up cause for me it adds a whopping 4" to my depth now, which is about 11" and that valid up till 12Z Tuesday. UK looks the same at its 12Z run unless Im looking at the wrong guidance, lol???

Definitely a long term investment for sure!

luckily all my stocks are in Mary Jane and in 10-15 yrs ill be sitting pretty, lol!

Theres never a model that hits the forecast dead on with both QPF and accumulation but they try and thats why its called guidance otherwise evwery civilian would just come here to get their forecast, lol!

There're all gonna be wrong in the end! But I bet one of them gets darn close, lol!

This event is definitely not through dropping snow I can guarantee that!

Yeah, things can get interesting once it passes for sure so don't be surprised if you wake up to a few to several more fluffy inches to add to the building glacier! Interesting as it seemed alot more fluffy to me!

Then once those -20C temps start to cross the 40 degree Lake, we should see some nice squalls the rest of the week so at least we're seeing some snow, lol, and not what we experienced in December! This should be interesting come Thurs-Fri-Sat as thats a serious through that drops into the Northeast! If that doesn't get LO going then nothing will, lol!

As soon as the 850LP moves to our East we will see some more enhanced snshwr's which should drop another 1-3" as the West end of the Lake looks primed and ready to go so we'll see later tonight. Its never a good thing when the 850LP is directly overhead like it is but once it passes, its game on once again!

We definitely got 3" thats for sure so the snow that fell must have been damn heavy but I was in Utica so I really dont know.

Congrats Ogdensburg, lol, what a joke! I wouldn't call it a bust as my area got anywhere between 3-5" but with all the blowing and drifting an accurate measurement is just impossible to obtain!

That'll change very soon Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Coming down heavily here in Utica Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The radar looks atrocious Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If you notice, we had a +phase from mid Nov to now and it did absolutely nothing for our sensible weather here in the Eastern GL's but the opposite is occurring now but now we have a -AO and -NAO so the PAC doesn't dictate what occurs for our weather especially in mid-winter

Who says we can't see snow with a -PNA, lol? Looks like the -AO coupled with a -NAO trumps a Pacific shit show!!

Some serious CSI banding going on in IA. I'm hoping we see something similar but I doubt it as it'll be ripped apart by that SHP to our N but ya never know!