A band of heavy snow continues over southern Oswego County early
this morning, and also clipping northern Cayuga and extreme
northeast Wayne counties at times. This band has been far more
stationary than model guidance has suggested overnight, allowing for
greater accumulations in one concentrated area of southern Oswego
County. With that in mind, the advisory was upgraded to a Lake
Effect Snow Warning for Oswego County.
Added convergence from the approaching cold front will continue to
enhance the lake band generated convergence through about 12Z, and
an upstream connection to Lake Huron will also aid in intensifying
the band. Snowfall rates of 2"/hr will continue through early
morning under the heart of the band. Expect some minor north/south
oscillation of the band through 7AM, possibly drifting a little
north into central Oswego County briefly. The band will then move
quickly south and west across northern Cayuga and Wayne counties
by mid to late morning and weaken as boundary layer flow veers
northwest behind the cold front.
Meanwhile the western end of this band will continue to clip the
south shore of the lake at times from eastern Niagara County to
western Wayne County, including the Rochester area. This will
produce minor 1-2 inch accumulations mainly along and north of Route
104 this morning. All of the lake effect snow will end this
afternoon as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.
As far as accumulations go, expect snow totals to reach 8-12" across
southern Oswego County, and 4-7" for northern Cayuga and far
northeast Wayne County, with 2-4" farther west in Wayne County and
1-2" along the lakeshore in the Rochester area.
This is why models are absolutely useless when it comes to the placement, intensity and most of all the movement of these bands!