WarrenCtyWx

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Of course, there were some bleak winters during the 18th century, too. From John Adams’ diary:

I would kill to have accurate and concrete snowfall records from the LIA winters before 1869.

31 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Gotta love that brutal looking map which must have been focus-grouped with people like me.  "Seasonably Cold" in block letters on blue shading behind an ominous looking cold front.

"SEASONABLY COLD" --- you mean, "NORMAL?"

Well, seasonably cold/normal would be a step in the right direction from where we are now.

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

We need to be going for all time monthly record if that happens right?

1932 may be tough to beat.

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yore

 

A testament to how impressive that outbreak was is that even Norfolk, VA had a high of only 12 on 12/30/1917.

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s only a matter of time before NYC goes T for a winter. You can’t just keep getting warmer and deny that. Unless your JB.

Philly had only a T during the entire winter of 72-73.

29 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah, wasn't a great winter.  great six weeks, yes.  You can't lose half of met winter basically snowless and call it great.

Which winters would you describe as great? Very few winters go wire to wire.

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 most of December and 1/2 of January gone, basically snowless here.  No way you can salvage a "great" winter in retrospect

You just described 14-15.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was it as good as a setup as we just went through? I kind of remember that season being extremely dry.

From what I understand the setup was definitely worse, but not as bad as you'd think given the extreme lack of cold and snow.

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 

97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. 

Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling.

Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle.

I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. 

Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

 

I recall 01/02 having a decent NAO (at least for a time), but a horrible Pacific.

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

And using analogs from colder times-say pre 1990-are largely worthless these days...

Could warmer winters from those days be used as analogs?

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Side note for the newbies - this 4 year stretch is nothing compared to 96/97 through 01/02. 

That period had two absolute ratters and was warmer. That being said, a similarity would be each stretch had 1 above average snowfall winter (00/01 and 20/21).

This year is to be decided of course. 12/13 also had 1 snowfall in December as well and turned out well especially City east.

We shall see but will be fun either way.

There was also a stretch from the winters of 49-50 through 54-55 where Central Park never even recorded 20 inches for the whole season. Six winters in a row! Poor early 50s weenies.

Maybe reverse psychology will help it snow.

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We had a 10 inch event at NYC December 2020 and all we had was a artic high 

We also had a decent stretch in December 2013 mid month. I'm not sure what the pattern was though. Does anyone know?

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the CMC is right we have a better chance of seeing a tornado than snow

I think I would prefer severe weather over cold rain.

I'll take a nickel and dime event or a SWFE with a front end thump if the pattern can't produce an all out snowstorm.

Wasn’t there a clipper in early January 2015?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Great post. I would’ve thought 03-04 would be up there but I was wrong 

January was the only frigid month that winter.

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Rain in Burlington, snow in NYC all over again? 

And snow even in Atlantic City.

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Verbatim the 18Z GFS 12/12 on is basically a Gulf Coast snow threat lol...hopefully we do not go that full blown shredder pattern.   I believe the 12/10-12/20 period in 2010 was similar to that but not quite that bad 

Didn't Minneapolis have a major storm around the 12th in December 2010?

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  Nov cold is usually a waste

Unless it arrives in late November.

On 6/24/2022 at 1:29 PM, ChescoWx said:

I'm surprised the 1940s were that bad. I think it was a fairly average snowfall decade in most other places. Also surprised at how well (relatively speaking) they did in the 80s.

Having deep blue skies is a hot summer day done right.

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

How is that season even an analog for the upcoming winter?

I don’t think it is. I was just responding to his post.

On 7/6/2022 at 1:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns

a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are:

2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58!

1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again

57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim

not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient 

for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering

57-58 was actually pretty epic in interior New England as well, just not on the coast.

It's going to feel like October on Saturday.