WarrenCtyWx

The difference between the GFS and the UKie is absurd.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenies don't sleep

That's the spirit

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The dry slot and warm tongue on becoming more prominent on some of the short range models with the jackpot moving further north. Still a good thump of snow but the trends are a little concerning.

The Euro will be telling. Need it to hold serve. 

And yet the GFS keeps moving south with the northern extent of the storm...

It seems like the snow shield is shrinking in general.

6 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I wouldn't want to be any further north than the NJ/NY state line. That high is going to press and it will always win. 

That seems a little bit too far south. That would put Rockland and Orange counties out of the game.

From near 12-20" on the NAM and Euro to barely 3" for me in Northern Warren County on the GFS. Lol.

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The northern cutoff of precipitation is going to be heart breaking in this event 

Isn't it always though? It's just a matter of where it is. Or are you implying it will be relatively close by?

Huge totals from E LI to the Poconos. Wow.

The Ukie and the GFS could not be further apart.

3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Perfect setup for NYC/NNJ area.....solid 12-18 inch storm with some potential for 18+ zones.  Let's see what the EURO has to say...

Not for all of NNJ and especially not Orange County north.

I'll get nervous if the SE trend continues, as that Euro depiction seems similar to to 1/23/2016 in terms of snowfall distribution.

Trying not to get my hopes up too much for this one. Things are really looking promising though.

This makes me wonder if there have been any notable cases of a great Atlantic overcoming an unfavorable (or even terrible) Pacific, leading to  great period, month or even winter. I'd be curious to know from anyone more knowledgeable. 

I suppose we can hope for a well-timed storm at some point from January through March, a la 2/22/08. Surely that's not completely out of the realm of possibility? I may just be grasping at straws.

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

remember when we in the city  during the winter had many  nights in the single digits those days have been gone for a decade or longer..

13-14 and 14-15 weren't that long ago.

13 hours ago, ThatHurricane said:

My prediction for snow this winter is T

Philly pulled that off in 72-73.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

- random thought ... 

Maybe since 2015 ended ... we are in the 1980s - I mean, not as systemic analog, necessarily ...but in the synergistic sore-butt propensity and pure bad lucktitudeness

The 80s were a lot colder though.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't mind another mild snow-free winter. Lower bills, no traffic jams/accidents, no shoveling, no frigid weather. 

Not a bad ask.

Could we get at least one area wide 5-8" event or so in this mild winter? I'd hate to be shut out for two consecutive seasons.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sounds like the 1950s were really bad on the East Coast. They were definitely subpar here,  but the 1930s and 1940s were a far worse snow drought. "Winters were worse when I was a kid" has been a line used by old timers for centuries. It just boggles my mind that the "old timers" who grew up between the 1930s-50s could ever say that. 

I think the 40s winters as a whole were pretty average in the east.

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can include the first 3 winters of the 1990s in the bad period of the 1980s....and also 1978-1979/1979-1980. 78-79 was probably decent in NNE but it was utter trash in SNE. Rain/cold/whiff/rain/cold pattern.

For ORH, there were 3 above average winters (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987) for snowfall and two near-average winters (1987-1988 and 1982-1983) in the 14 year period. But the clunkers were pretty bad. The freeze/thaw cycles were e bad in 1984-1985 and 1985-1986. Add onto that 4 consecutive garbage winters from 1988-89 through 1991-92 (you could argue 1989-90 wasn’t THAT bad), it’s not a fond set of memories. 

February 1979 was pretty huge in the Mid Atlantic. It also had some incredible cold. Probably one of the most underrated cold periods.

39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hope it works out better than my declaration the worst of the big heat was behind us in early July 2018

 

August 1 to October 12 or so of that year was quite possibly the most disgustingly humid period I've ever experienced. The second half of that autumn was mainly below normal afterward, making it quite the contrast.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

BDL becomes complete anathema to Kevin in the winter. He won’t even mention them after October. 

Was it actually colder than 1934?

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too humid.  You're not getting 98+ with 75-78 dews

I definitely agree most of the time, but didn't July 15, 1995 achieve that feat?

It's interesting that the "big ticket" (ala July 2010, July 2011, August 2001, etc.)  heat wave has been so elusive since 2012 or so, despite the anomalous warmth during most summers.

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

The Delaware and Lehigh Valleys and the Poconos got slammed as well. Up to 20" of rain in parts of NEPA with Diane. The river flooding was historic but the flash flooding on the smaller tributaries was even worse.

Quite the summer with an incredibly hot and dry July and early August (with an impressive number of 95 degree days) followed by historically heavy rainfall.