WarrenCtyWx

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One could see GFS toying with a snow look at 210 hours, WE DON"T WANT THAT!. 0z ECM hinted at it too with an anomalous eastern trough. 

 

 

Any type of trough would be more than welcome at this point. FWIW, I recall 2002 and 2009 having traces of snow in the area, so it's not automatically a death sentence.

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Huh? Record highs were falling all over the place last month. 

Not in Central Park. To be fair I haven't checked other stations. The early September heat wave may have done it.

Despite all of the warmth, I don't think NYC has had a record high temperature. Daily highs haven't been that impressive despite the consistent warmth and high dews.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There are no indications of that. If anything all signs point to another snowy winter. Maybe you're right about the cold though. 

The only way things go south is if we follow an 06/07 progression. 

And that had a chilly September and October, ironically enough...

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I had ~60" in March, a decent storm in early January, below 0 a couple of times and days that barely reached the mid-teens but somehow it just didn't seem like an A winter. Yup that Feb storm was quite the fluke in a sea of warmth, I think I got something like 8 or 10". I also only used about 2/3 the amount of heating oil that I expect to use but we were still running the heat much later into the year than we usually do which is part of why I don't have the warm fuzzies for the winter as a whole, it was warm overall. 

10/11 was a good winter, would have been really great if it hadn't ended so abruptly (or was that 9/10 that just shut off?). I think it was 03/04 that was a wall to wall winter, didn't end up with outrageous totals but it started strong on 12/5 and just kept going right through the end of March. I didn't get back here until April 96 so I missed the best of it but I was here for 93/94 and remember that as the first of the great winters in the modern era. I'd also put 77/78 in as one of the good ones. I like winters with a long lasting, solid snowpack that gets refreshed regularly even if it's just a couple of wispy inches at a time.

 

I didn't think any areas had as much as 60" in the month of March alone. The highest I could find was the month of 45" in interior NNJ. Unless I misinterpreted your post?

14 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Hopefully we can keep this beautiful weather going---aren't we due for a below average snowfall winter with mild temps?

If anything we're "due" for a colder winter with below normal snowfall, which was actually a common occurrence in the 80s. 

I read a couple predictions about a pattern change around Thanksgiving. Would that really make sense in a Nino winter? 

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the cool autumn ship has sailed permanently. At this point we'd be fortunate just to avoid the top 10 warmest fall months. 

I wouldn't go that far but cool autumns will probably be considerably harder to come by. I suppose a pattern perfectly conducive to troughing from September to November would do the trick.

59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We have had how many below normal months in the last 5 years? I’ll give you a hint it’s less then 10 of 60. Even in an above normal tempeture regime there are periods of below normal days. 

If this board “makes you laugh” then why bother reading/posting?

 

To be fair, we did have a period of relatively cooler conditions from late 2013 to early 2015. That would probably help account for more than 10 months overall.

This stagnant, human pattern has remarkable longevity. 

49 minutes ago, beckd said:

This is the 4th consecutive September, since 2014, when it has been 15F above average in NYC metro area. I wonder if there is anyone out there who can explain without too many “weather models/satellite references,” as to why this is happening? I’m a climate change skeptic of different variety — I do believe it’s happening for the worse in terms of HEATWAVES & DROUGHTS in all regions above TROPIC OF CANCER, but all this warming is not necessarily man made, but cyclical or vicious solar activity. What do you think? 

I’m addition to GW, I would also think we simply haven’t had a favorable pattern for below average temperatures for early fall in quite some time.

While some are hoping for a large scale pattern change, I'm just hoping for a couple of dry days with highs below 80 degrees with dew points in the 50's or even 40's. 

Last year we were in the midst of a relatively chilly pattern that lasted until mid September, when we promptly roasted until November. Perhaps this year will follow suit but in the reverse direction. That might be a bit too optimistic, though. 

Biting my fingernails here in Northern Warren County. Hopefully guidance shifts back to give a healthy amount of precipitation on the north and west side.