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jewell2188

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Everything posted by jewell2188

  1. jewell2188
    Radar is unimpressive. Latest discussion from sterling isn’t exciting either.
  2. jewell2188
    Unbelievable, flood watches to the left and right of me. From Fredericksburg north and west to Leesburg, high and dry.
  3. jewell2188
    Radar has blossomed north of DC. Willing to bet the majority south and west of 66 don’t see much today.
  4. jewell2188
    Not much going on :/
  5. jewell2188
    Can clearly see where storms are wanting to fire today. Appears west of 66 may be left out today.
  6. jewell2188
    It is well rumored that holtby may be the odd man out next year. No way the caps spend what he will demand. Sergei May have set the market for elite goalies. Whats fascinating is that the caps will still have that main Stanley cup winning core for the foreseeable future (minus maybe losing holtby). With the recent signings, one could hope that they at least maintain making the playoffs for at least a couple more years. A deep run remains to be seen. But I’m looking forward to watching the new members of the team.
  7. jewell2188
    Looks like judging by the radar, the DC spilt may be real today.
  8. jewell2188
    I just can’t understand why they would let Connolly go!!!! Not to mention probably letting vrana walk? Slowly but sure losing that Stanley cup team.
  9. jewell2188
    3 inches reported in culpeper county
  10. jewell2188
    It’s a big rain producer! Drove through it as it was coming through Haymarket.
  11. jewell2188
    Ugh an hour later and it’s still pathetic...I’m just saying.
  12. jewell2188
    Doesn’t look promising right now. Radar is rather pathetic...at least we have filtered sunshine...makes the humidity bearable
  13. jewell2188
    All seems very iffy again. Lots of clouds all morning here in newington. Still waiting on the region wide severe/flood event
  14. jewell2188
    I have noticed! As I said this morning, this “threat” today and tomorrow went from exciting to meh in 24 hours. Certainly has been a change from this time last year.
  15. jewell2188
    I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe.
  16. jewell2188
    Another dud.
  17. jewell2188
    It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh
  18. jewell2188
    .HYDROLOGY... Concern is increasing about flood/flash flood potential; not so much today, but moreso Monday and Tuesday. Moisture is not as significant or deep as we might typically like, but having a stalled front in the area does mean there`s an increased likelihood of training thunderstorms and thus perhaps some flooding. For now, we are watching what`s happening upstream, and waiting to see where the surface front ends up tonight. Since the activity is convective in nature and these weak impulses don`t lend themselves to high confidence well in advance -- plus we currently have relatively high Flash Flood Guidance -- I have elected to wait and see how today plays out. From a flood perspective, Tuesday might actually have a higher potential than Monday (with Monday`s rains serving as the primer).
  19. jewell2188
    From where? Nothing remotely close
  20. jewell2188
    No surprise, cloudy here most of day.
  21. jewell2188
    Nudge that south a bit and I’ll take it.
  22. jewell2188
    A cold front will approach the area from the north today. The front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly stationary across the area through the middle of next week. It may finally shift southeast of the region by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A very warm and humid air mass will be in place today coupled with a lee-side trof and weak 500 mb wave will aid in t-storm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively strong with 40kt at 500mb contributing to 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear. A few severe t- storms are expected late this afternoon through late this evening. Northern and central Maryland appears to be at greatest risk of severe thunderstorms with t-storm coverage decreasing markedly south of I-66. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the biggest threat given the moderately strong flow aloft and fast storm motions (~ 30kt). The severe wx threat should wane after 10PM or so, but risk of t- storms will likely persist well into the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday still appears as it will be the most active day this week with a slow moving front nearby and ripples of upper level energy aiding in t-storm formation. Shear and storm motions will be weaker suggesting an increased flash flood threat especially given mid- level flow becoming parallel to sfc front which will also favor training. CAPE values, on the other hand, are expected to be much higher than on Sunday, which also support a severe wx and flash flood threat. A flash flood watch may be issued for some areas at this time tomorrow once confidence in location of t-storms increases. Simulated satellite imagery from various global models indicate convection will be more widespread and intense than today.
  23. jewell2188
    The blues were the caps of last year. Underdog throughout the playoffs but overcame and ultimately Succeeded.
  24. jewell2188
    Been a pretty rainy day in warrenton since about 10:30 this morning
  25. jewell2188
    The NWS doesn’t seem to share your same thoughts Large area of isentropic lift and easterly low-level flow for a prolonged period, coupled with PWATs of near 2 inches will result in a heavy rain and flood threat Sunday and Monday, especially for the central Virginia foothills and vicinity. At 7am, 1.70 inches in the past 24hrs was reported already by MontebelloVA along the Blue Ridge in Nelson County. Anticipating issuing a Flood or Flash Flood Watch on this shift after the 12z modeling rolls in and can be evaluated. Expecting Flood will be the more widespread threat from inundation, with pockets of Flash Flooding under heavier convective, possibly terrain locked, elements. Finer scale details will continue to come into better focus over the coming day or so.
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