North Balti Zen

I have a question re: the weeklies and people's use of them. When people get happy or sad about the weeklies, or optimistic or pessimistic, or bullish or cautious, I guess I wonder at any reaction, as my understanding is that the weeklies are spun off of one particular run of a particular model. I am not making much sense, maybe, and this is hard to communicate. If the modeled conditions change from one run to the next, won't the weeklies then change significantly based on that? I guess I am wondering what people really can take away from them. Some of the good posters on here really look to them, perhaps as one more tool, but I see a lot of reaction to them that seems like folks are taking them for more than a tool (and a changeable tool at that). I guess I don't have a point. Carry on.

Thanks for the initial thoughts on places slightly north, all. My wife has made it to the next round of interviews, so a little less theoretical than it was. Would Taneytown or Union Mills areas also be a good target snow-wise? The place she is interviewing is in PA north of Frederick and we would be looking to split the difference between there and Baltimore eventually. Hoff convinced me some time ago (without knowing it) that for snow lovers it's worth the commute to live where chances are better, so if she gets this gig (still a few interview rounds to go), it would let me scratch that itch maybe.

We needed a long range thread at some point.

If there's legit flakes flying in western burbs/western Maryland on Saturday during the day, I think I can chase.

Setting sights on Damascus down the road if this move ends up being a thing...

He did. He still has me blocked on twitter for my calling him out for his awful nowcasting of the January 2016 snow.

If at some point in the next two years job for my wife took us as a compromise location to Hagerstown or thurmont, that’s better for snow than Baltimore on balance, right?

Turns out Ian was musing over the late fall colors question too: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/19/weve-never-seen-anything-like-this-fall-foliage-still-missing-action-across-mid-atlantic/?utm_term=.db9098d47fb8

It's a pretty damn fine October day. Sky is a brilliant blue as well.

We will always have memories of the cold talk, I suppose.

According to PA DNR site, up in Juniata County and surrounding area (northwest of Harrisburg) the trees are near peak. I may take a drive with my wife this weekend if we find some time and go look and see if we can find some fall color.

Yeah. That's my fear too. Wasn't sure if it was an unfounded fear, but at least I am not alone in having those thoughts...

I don't want to post this in the fall foliage picture thread, but, on the leaves, given how warm we were and how wet (and acknowledging that much of leaf change is triggered by dwindling of sunlight rather than temp), any ideas if the color season around here will be salvageable? Drove up to Franklin and Marshall in Lancaster ten days ago, and even up that way there was no color on the trees yet.

I mean, damn. Just had to walk down to the harbor and it is insane, the humidity level. Like, deep summer bad. Just, gross.

Got it. My OCD keeps wanting it to just be one GFS to head off the "what did the para show" discussions this winter...

Seeing references again to the para GFS in the hurricane thread...the rollout of the para GFS before it replaces the GFS feels like it has been underway for a realllllyyyy long time.

This is a genuinely gross airmass at the moment - 74 with 93% humidity. At 8:00 pm on October 4. Wow.

At the time this thread was made, it was an attempt to get one particular doomsayer to stop derailing every long range winter thread.

This is an absolutely stunningly beautiful day.

We really really really could use an extended period of sunny days in the area. Absolutely poured in Baltimore again last night, I assume a lot of the area was similar.

Not sure why the delay in adding Baltimore area from the watch posted at 2:39 am, but Baltimore area now in the flood watch: ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN MARYLAND, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS, IN CENTRAL MARYLAND, ANNE ARUNDEL AND PRINCE GEORGES. IN NORTHERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN BALTIMORE, NORTHWEST HARFORD, SOUTHEAST HARFORD, AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE, AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED, FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. &&

Oh, hey there humidity. Welcome back? Good lord.

DCA: 11/17 BWI: 11/4 IAD: 10/26 RIC: 11/17 Tiebreaker: October rainfall at IAD. 3.9

That was the game that got me in two of my three pools.

The Minnesota, New England and Jax results brought the kind of survivor pool carnage three weeks into a season that I don't believe I have ever seen.