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OKpowdah

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OKpowdah

  1. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Give me some good nuclear war to load up the stratosphere with debris lol
  2. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    especially considering the stability of the stratosphere. It needs some strong vertical velocity as it blasts through the tropopause, if it's going to get a large concentration into the stratosphere
  3. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    OMG we got a thunderstorm last weekend. I bet it was AGW!
  4. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    remember that the majority of the warming is happening at high latitudes, so we're technically losing net baroclinicity
  5. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Here's the top ten analog years I get. Quite a range in terms of snowfall. There are few good years in there, and a few putrid ones. 1948 1989 2003 1976 1974 1960 1990 1993 1961 1982 I also agree that, especially at this range, this doesn't hold too much weight
  6. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Not worth much, but this is the composite I get for this winter based on spring analogs. Doesn't look great...
  7. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    We've got some big guns leaving towards our side for next winter! Just need Jerry to come around now
  8. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Those two winters had very different evolution though. February and March were polar opposites lol. But yeah, but great interior winters. I love how for every pre-winter thread in the last decade, one of us manages to bring up 2001 at least once a week Just an incredible couple of months.
  9. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    well said
  10. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    which is going to be interesting since they were very very different winters
  11. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    2001-2 had exactly the opposite stage of the QBO, and the evolution of the Pacific is different enough for me not to consider much weight on that winter
  12. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    That's the only thing I don't like about winter
  13. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    08-09 was an okay winter, and 09-10 was a horrible horrible horrible 4 months The New Years 2010 retrograde thing was crap. 10" spread out over 72 hours is not a storm. The NYE 2008 fluff bomb was AMAZING!! By contrast, that was 10" in 4 hours. Spectacular dendrites with ratios easily over 20:1
  14. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    well both actually. Global temperatures were coldest between July and November 1992. Sep-Oct-Nov featured below normal global temperatures ... the last time that has occurred
  15. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    The greatest magnitude cold anomalies following the eruption were during the summer of 1992,
  16. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Don't know much about this, but I think IF there would be any effect, a 6 month lag would be sufficient. However, the eruption would need to have been large enough to extend into the stratosphere
  17. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    ooooh yeah! Sorry about the mix-up!
  18. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    lol yes. And we can also count on a thoroughly uneventful February and March regardless of Tip posting about "stratospheric tsunamis" (the 2009 MMW) That was actually the first time I started paying attention to the stratosphere, and after that huge event, I thought "wow nothing happened. This whole stratospheric warming bit is totally crap"
  19. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    That MMW did nothing for us. The frigid January was a product of a strong MJO wave moving through the western Pacific. The MMW occurred in late January and resulted in the AO tumbling off for a few days in early February, and then we proceeded to have an incredibly driest, mild, and boring three weeks
  20. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    how did 06-07 get into the analog discussion? Not much resemblance to anything going on right now. 08-09 is a very good analog to follow for developments in the Pacific. 93-94 is a good match to the stratosphere
  21. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    1. ENSO is more likely to be neutral to warm IMO, but either way, the effects of a "second year Nina" should be moot 2. Not sure what your premise for that is, but given the descending easterly QBO and tendency for a warming Pacific, I wouldn't bet on a +NAO 3. I know nothing about solar stuff lol 4. That's a stupid argument that never works
  22. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    mildly disagree ... not strongly yet I haven't taken a close look at anything yet. Actually, I haven't really worked on any seasonal forecasts since last summer, so take anything I say with a grain of salt. Hopefully I'll grab some time / motivation in the next few months to start looking at the upcoming winter more closely. With that said, I've glanced at a few things... Easterly QBO shear zone is descending steadily now, and we should be in a decreasing negative state this winter, which is very supportive for SSWs. Could see a major warming in January that sends some significant, near record breaking cold into the region for February. Right now I'm thinking something like Jan-Feb 1994 on steroids. MECS late January and plenty of opportunities in February to rack up the totals. December will be slow to start but middle to late offers some activity
  23. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    It'll be very interesting to see if the Pacific reaches El Nino status this winter. Every recorded strong Nino event has been followed by an extended period of neutral or La Nina conditions, and has never been followed by another El Nino by the second winter (as would be the case following the 09-10 event)
  24. OKpowdah

    Severe wx potential Wednesday

    got the alert on my phone, and left the conference to call my mom. She said they had 2" hail falling in Keene, "large enough to break when it hit the ground"
  25. OKpowdah

    Winter 2011-2012

    Obviously I loved 2007-8, but we needed this past winter with the blockbusters (to stop my broken record "last 12+ was March 07" lol) Like I said, I'm not sure about storminess yet next winter, but seriously, I think we're going to be in the ice box
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