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vwgrrc

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  1. vwgrrc
    0z GFS just came in with a lot more snow for DFW than 12z run. More or less back to how it looks yesterday. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
  2. vwgrrc
    True. But i think it's notable that most models are showing colder and wetter than earlier today including NAM itself. HRRR is particularly aggressive with the shift.
  3. vwgrrc
    0z HRRR in range now. It seems onboard with more sleet than snow at this a point! Update: actually... just refreshed HRRR again. More snow on the back end. So basically both in pretty impressive amount looks like.
  4. vwgrrc
    Yes. 48H out now. A lot colder than 12z. Maybe just back to how it looks at 6z. 18z NAM says oh we're so back
  5. vwgrrc
    12z CMC/RDPS is still very bullish on snow. GEFS is also more or less on board but less aggressive. Quite wild situation tbh. And of course, Euro coming in and is still dumping a lot of snow for Dallas. Feel bad for folks at NWS on this one
  6. vwgrrc
    Interesting that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?
  7. vwgrrc
    12z NAM came in basically no snow at all for DFW! Quite a swing at close range to be honest
  8. vwgrrc
    Same for NAM.
  9. vwgrrc
    0z RDPS (Canadian) seems more or less onboard with NAM just a little north placing DFW around the transition zone of FZR. Quite wild to watch. If GFS and Euro join at 0z, this can be easily a historical event. Edit - GFS coming in significantly warmer than earlier today. Seems like a trend from 18z. Now it almost paints a cold rain event for DFW. I don't remember if I've seen such a large divergence between NAM and GFS at this close range. Curious what's the reason behind it
  10. vwgrrc
    0z NAM is printing a foot of snow for Dallas... can't even imagine that. Waiting for others models to confirm that. The previous GFS run was a bit drier.
  11. vwgrrc
    Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like.
  12. vwgrrc
    18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier
  13. vwgrrc
    Interestingly tho i don't think it's common to see NAM being so strong for a FZRN event in NTX while all other models keep that in OK, especially given it's now only 48 hr out. It normally the opposite! Curious to see how AFD gonna interpret the divergence.
  14. vwgrrc
    Some freezing rain seems likely for Monday AM in DFW metro. Still could change a lot at this point.
  15. vwgrrc
    Speaking of which, I don't think I ever seen such a huge divergence between GFS and CMC like this for the next Monday. I literally laughed out loud
  16. vwgrrc
    Well. 12z Euro is not showing any drier and it's actually shifting the system a bit north toward Dallas. That said, there's still time for things like this to change drastically.
  17. vwgrrc
    12Z Euro seems shifting the battleground a bit north which can be a problem for Dfw if other model to follow. But i think all of them are trending a bit drier in the last 3 runs.
  18. vwgrrc
    Canadian is basically calling a somewhat big event for Dallas and it's showing a trend from yesterday. Definitely worth watching if Euro will join and what Gfs says next run. Edit - Euro joined the chat as well. Timing is slightly later than the other two. Not a terrible idea to start preparing early.
  19. vwgrrc
    I might said that too soon. Both 12z Gfs and Cmc are showing some icing for DFW. Cmc is actually quite strong on that. I think it's a bit concerning at this range to see some model convergence especially if they trend.
  20. vwgrrc
    But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.
  21. vwgrrc
    Pretty much full blast sun out in Collin Ct now
  22. vwgrrc
    Not good when you have a W shift to cover 6M+ like this ...
  23. vwgrrc
    True. But I wonder why there seems a lot of melting underway. I see the streets are clearing up and nothing really stick on trees or power lines here, which is really good. Maybe the actual accumulation could be less than expected
  24. vwgrrc
    When you see SPC mesoscale discussion while it's 26 outside... I hope my power holds tonight.
  25. vwgrrc
    Denton CT falling pretty hard consistent with what radar shows.
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